2019 Playoffs. 1st round

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

29 minutes ago, ngbills said:

CLE plays CIN x2, MIA, AZ. Those are 4 easy wins. The PIT game will be big. Then they play BAL late. They are between 10-6 and 8-8 pretty easily.

PIT plays CIN, NYJ, AZ. Those should be 3 easy ones. They play BAL week 17 so BAL could have nothing to play for. Key games will be CLE and Bills games. They are between 11-5 and 9-7 quite easily.

OAK plays NYJ, DEN and that gets them 8 very easily. They win 3 of these to get to 11 - JAC, TEN, LAC, KC.

 

CLE

MIA prob not.  At Steelers ... they could lose.  Bengals need to win something. @AZ does have a chance to beat them. Cravens and then the Bungles again .  I see at least 2 maybe 3 losses. 

 

IF they win every game out and others LOSE, then yes, the Browns can make the playoffs 

Edited November 18, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[section122]

15 hours ago, rayray808 said:

If we win out and the Pats lose to the Texans and Chiefs we get the one seed

 

Thank you!!!  Everyone here is talking wild card and not division.  Patriots are not as strong as they were and Brady is looking looonnnnggg in the tooth.  Bills are 7-3 I'm rooting for the AFC East title!  13-3 Baby!!!

[ngbills]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

CLE

MIA prob not.  At Steelers ... they could lose.  Bengals need to win something. @AZ does have a chance to beat them. Cravens and then the Bungles again .  I see at least 2 maybe 3 losses. 

 

IF they win every game out and others LOSE, then yes, the Browns can make the playoffs 

Browns are lowest on the list of concerns.

 

PIT and OAK are right there though with easy schedules.

 

Bottom line - Bills win games they should vs DEN and NYJ. Then take 2 of 4 vs PIT, BAL, NE, DAL. 

[Tortured Soul]

Thought this was interesting:

 

If you put the 538 expected winners into the NYT playoff simulator, the season comes down to the Week 17 game between the Colts and Jaguars, which 538 projects as a 50/50 tossup.

[Franco_92]

It's so easy to get anxious about the amount of teams that still COULD finish at 10-6 or 11-5, but it's literally always like that around week 11 even in down years. There is simply almost no chance that all of Cleveland, Indy, Oakland, and Pittsburgh finish with one of these records. 2, if not 3, will slide into the 7-9 win range. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

10 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

I believe you want KC as they lead the division

 

 

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

This

[EmotionallyUnstable]

9 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

 

7 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

This

a loss for them essentially kills their dwindling WC hopes. And might give us a good team to root for down the road, as they will still have games against the Chiefs and Raiders. 

 

I think the Raiders have a dangerously easy schedule the rest of the way. And the Chiefs have tough sledding. Idk if it’s best that the West best each other up, or one team runs away with the division and we root against the other 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I'm hearing both sides of the argument and trying to figure out who to root for tonight?

[ngbills]

38 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I agree. But a charger win isn’t the worst thing either 

 

37 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

This

 

27 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

a loss for them essentially kills their dwindling WC hopes. And might give us a good team to root for down the road, as they will still have games against the Chiefs and Raiders. 

 

I think the Raiders have a dangerously easy schedule the rest of the way. And the Chiefs have tough sledding. Idk if it’s best that the West best each other up, or one team runs away with the division and we root against the other 

Interestingly - If you pick the better D to win each game the rest of the season by ESPN default option. Guess who makes it? Chargers...finishing 9-7 with wins over KC, JAC, MIN, OAK and KC again. Loss is to DEN. Dont see that happening but interesting nonetheless. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

 

 

Interestingly - If you pick the better D to win each game the rest of the season by ESPN default option. Guess who makes it? Chargers...finishing 9-7 with wins over KC, JAC, MIN, OAK and KC again. Loss is to DEN. Dont see that happening but interesting nonetheless. 

odd when I did that the Browns got in at #6

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[ComradeKayAdams]

I'm thinking now that the Chiefs, Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens make it. That leaves Buffalo and the AFC South winner to fend off the Steelers and the rest of the AFC South pack. So that Colts-Texans matchup Sunday is a big one for Buffalo. I think we should be rooting for Houston because of their conference records.

[Jrb1979]

42 minutes ago, KayAdams said:

I'm thinking now that the Chiefs, Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens make it. That leaves Buffalo and the AFC South winner to fend off the Steelers and the rest of the AFC South pack. So that Colts-Texans matchup Sunday is a big one for Buffalo. I think we should be rooting for Houston because of their conference records.

Buffalo has to go 3-3 to make it. If they only beat Denver and the Jets they most likely don't make it in. 

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, ngbills said:

CLE plays CIN x2, MIA, AZ. Those are 4 easy wins. The PIT game will be big. Then they play BAL late. They are between 10-6 and 8-8 pretty easily.

PIT plays CIN, NYJ, AZ. Those should be 3 easy ones. They play BAL week 17 so BAL could have nothing to play for. Key games will be CLE and Bills games. They are between 11-5 and 9-7 quite easily.

OAK plays NYJ, DEN and that gets them 8 very easily. They win 3 of these to get to 11 - JAC, TEN, LAC, KC.

 

 

Cleveland is not going to make the playoffs...Miami is not an easy win...and Cincinnati will probably beat them once...they have to win a game somewhere.

 

I mean people already are figuring out who is going to win and lose before the games are even played....doesnt work like that. I'll guarantee you at least 3 of your above predictions are wrong. It's a week to week league, every week is different and you don't know who is going to be hurt for all pf these games...

 

 

538 lists the Bills as having a 71% chance of making the playoffs, far and away the highest of any wild card team.

 

Indy is second with a 54% chance and nobody else is above 40%. Houston is predicted to win the AFC South with a 71% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by matter2003

[Tesla03]

its 10-6 or bust this year. Raiders aren't losing more than 2 games with that schedule

 

question is who wins the tie breaker if we are both 10-6 

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, ngbills said:

Nothing changed after this Sunday.

 

Key games are still DAL, BAL, PIT. We lose two of those and we are potentially in trouble. Raiders are likely 11-5 or 10-6. PIT could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. CLE could be 10-6 and own win over Bills. IND could wind up 11-5 or 10-6. 

People keep giving this freebie to Oakland.  Oakland plays 4 of the last six  ON THE ROAD.  Those are not easy wins.    The same goes for Pittsburgh.  Both have a pretty hard road to the playoffs.

[Greg S]

6 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

its 10-6 or bust this year. Raiders aren't losing more than 2 games with that schedule

 

question is who wins the tie breaker if we are both 10-6 

 

They barely beat the Bengals at home so maybe they stumble along the way. I actually think(hope) the Jets can upset them at MetLife this week.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

AFC
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
1	New England	East	9-1-0
2	Baltimore	North	8-2-0
3	Kansas City	West	7-4-0
4	Indianapolis	South	6-4-0
5	Buffalo	East	7-3-0
6	Houston	South	6-4-0
STILL ALIVE
SEED	TEAM	DIVISION	RECORD
7	Oakland	West	6-4-0
8	Pittsburgh	North	5-5-0
9	Tennessee	South	5-5-0
10	Cleveland	North	4-6-0

AFC tiebreakers:

• Indianapolis is ahead of Houston in the AFC South based on head to head (1-0).
• Houston is ahead of Oakland based on head to head (1-0).
• Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (4-3 to the Titans' 3-4).
• Cleveland is ahead of Jacksonville based on conference record (Browns' 4-3 to the Jaguars' 4-4).
• Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (3-4 to the Jets' 0-6).

 

NFC tiebreakers:

• Green Bay is ahead of New Orleans based on conference record (5-1 to the Saints' 6-2).
• Philadelphia is ahead of Carolina based on conference record (3-4 to the Panthers' 2-5).
• Detroit is ahead of Arizona based on conference record (2-4-1 to the Cardinals' 2-5-1).
• Atlanta is ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South based on division record (2-0 to the Buccaneers' 1-3).

Maintain the 3rd best record in the AFC and they are a lock to get in.  which is a pity because it just gets them a WC. 

 

 

NYTimes says 

Steelers  47%

Colts 45%

Raiders 45%

Edited November 19, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[InTheBuffAllTheTime]

I'm also guilty of looking at the standings and remaining schedules to figure out the Bills' playoff path. Certainly I'm going to root in any individual non-Bills game for the best outcome that helps the Bills as in this thread. But......this type of analysis (below) is Bills fandom (and media) stuck in the Bills' miserable past.

 

Top Wild Card: Buffalo Bills

Current record: 7-3

Likely wins remaining: 2 (vs DEN, vs NYJ)

Likely losses remaining: 3 (at DAL, vs BAL, at NE)

Toss-ups remaining: 1 (at PIT)

 

The miserable past had fans clinging to remote hopes that the stars would align for opponent losses and tie-breakers would fall in the Bills' favor.

 

Likely losses????? Really??? I am going to choose to embrace The Process. Pretty sure the conversation in the locker room this week isn't "we gotta win this one cause we have some likely losses coming up". Like the players, I expect to win every one of the next 6 "this week's games". The Bills are in the driver's seat here. This year the other teams are praying for Bills' losses. Enjoy the ride. It's been a while.