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2019 Playoff Scenarios. Buffalo #5 Seed, 95% to make it, Week 14 win could clinch & AFC Rooting Interests.

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#1 Seed  Ravens    REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Bills (9-3), vs. Jets (4-8), at Browns (5-7), vs. Steelers (7-5)

#2 Seed  Putz***   REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Chiefs (8-4), at Bengals (1-11), vs. Bills (9-3), vs. Dolphins (3-9)

#3 Seed  Texans    REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Broncos (4-8), at Titans (7-5), at Buccaneers (5-7), vs. Titans (7-5)

#4 Seed  Chiefs     REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Patriots (10-2), vs. Broncos (4-8), at Bears (6-6), vs. Chargers (4-8)

#5 Seed  Buffalo   REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Ravens (10-2), at Steelers (7-5), at Patriots (10-2), vs. Jets (4-8)

#6 Seed  Steelers  REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Cardinals (3-8-1), vs. Bills (9-3), at Jets (4-8), at Ravens (10-2)

 

 

AFC tiebreakers:

  • Baltimore is ahead of New England based on head to head (1-0).
  • Houston is ahead of Kansas City based on head to head (1-0).
  • Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (6-3 to the Titans' 5-4).
  • Oakland is ahead of Indianapolis based on head to head (1-0).
  • Denver is ahead of the L.A. Chargers in the AFC West based on head to head sweep (2-0).
  • Jacksonville is ahead of Denver and the N.Y. Jets based on head to head sweep (2-0).
  • Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (4-5 to the Jets' 1-7).
  • The L.A. Chargers are ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (2-7 to the Jets' 1-7).

 

NEW ORLEANS clinched the NFC South division title (Week 13)

 

NFC tiebreakers:

  • San Francisco is ahead of New Orleans based on conference record (7-1 to the Saints' 8-2).
  • Tampa Bay is ahead of Carolina in the NFC South based on division record (2-3 to the Panthers' 1-3).
  • Tampa Bay is ahead of Philadelphia based on conference record (4-6 to the Eagles' 3-5).
  • Philadelphia is ahead of Carolina based on conference record (3-5 to the Panthers' 2-7).
  • Detroit is ahead of Arizona based on conference record (2-6-1 to the Cardinals' 2-7-1).
  • Atlanta is ahead of Washington based on conference record (3-6 to the Redskins' 2-6).
6 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

The New York Times model is the best, in my opinion.

 

Lose out: 54% chance of making playoffs (this is probably what Cynthia Frelund will have, LOL)
Lose out until beating Jets: 96% chance of making playoffs
Win out: 56% chance of #1 seed
Win out and Chiefs beat Patriots: #1 seed

 

Tha's too complicated.  ;)  

 

I want to look at 1 number 

Bills    9-3   94% to make the playoffs

 

NFL  http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

 

ESPN  http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

ESPN standings   https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

 

NYT   https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

CBS   https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace
 

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost

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THE ONLY sure way to get the #1 seed is to win out and also have NE lose to KC

That means NO resting players for the JETS game in Buffalo 

 

of the top contenders  Week 14 rooting interests 

at Bills (9-3) over Ravens (10-2)
at Chiefs (8-4) over Putz*** (10-2)
at Texans (8-4) over Denver (4-8)
Steelers (7-5) at Cardinals  (3-8-1)

 

 

As a  Just in case scenario  we need the Cards to win this week 

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost
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7 hours ago, 707BillsFan said:

 

A few weeks back, she predicted the Bills would finish with 9 wins, having a 42% chance of making the playoffs (Texans were also 9 wins, 50% and wild card team #1)...but the kicker, she had the Jaguars winning 8 games but a higher percentage and projected wild card team #2. I didn't understand how that happened. Bills projected at 9 wins, Jags 8...but the Jags getting the wild card. She's a farce. 

 

🤮 Barf. Yeah, I don't know what her process is for coming up with these numbers but I'm willing to bet she just throws all team names in a hat and picks at random.

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https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/12/2/20991527/afc-playoff-picture-heres-how-the-buffalo-bills-can-clinch-a-playoff-spot-in-week-14

 

Here’s the clinching scenario:

Buffalo beat Baltimore AND
Denver beats Houston AND
Tampa Bay beats Indianapolis AND
Tennessee beats Oakland

 

This would guarantee that Buffalo would finish in the top two for the Wild Card. Now they just have to beat the Ravens...

 

LOL  that's why I try to avoid Rumblings ... 
Buffalo beat Baltimore PERIOD.  

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost

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2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

THE ONLY sure way to get the #1 seed is to win out and also have NE lose to KC

That means NO resting players for the JETS game in Buffalo 

 

 

I don’t think this is entirely true. It’s still mathematically possible, although unlikely that the Bills could be sitting at 12-3 and all other division leaders and the Pats* at 10-5 headed into week 17. 

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1 minute ago, Chandemonium said:

I don’t think this is entirely true. It’s still mathematically possible, although unlikely that the Bills could be sitting at 12-3 and all other division leaders and the Pats* at 10-5 headed into week 17. 

 

I'm sure that there is some variation of wins and losses that can cause a ripple effect.

there always is. Like Andy Dalton throwing a TD pass on 4th and 14 from the 48

 

 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

I'm sure that there is some variation of wins and losses that can cause a ripple effect.

there always is. Like Andy Dalton throwing a TD pass on 4th and 14 from the 48

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was just going to post that now Dalton is back in he can do us a favor again this year haha.

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28183380/2019-nfl-playoff-picture-afc-nfc-standings-seeds-scenarios-outlook-week-13

 

(There is still a game tonight in the AFC so expect a slight change on the NFC) 

5. Buffalo Bills (9-3)

Thanksgiving Day brought one of the Bills' most meaningful and impressive victories in two decades. By dismantling the division-leading Cowboys on the road in a short week, the Bills showed they are capable of more than just feasting on a weak schedule. As a result, they are now a near lock for a wild-card playoff spot. They're even in position to swoop into the AFC East lead if the Patriots falter. The Bills' chance to reach the postseason is now 96.6%, according to FPI. With one more victory, they'll have their best regular-season record since 1999.

 

Next up: vs. Baltimore (Week 14)

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ELIMINATED

15   Miami 3-9

16.  Cinci 1-11

 

Too bad, so sad.

13 Lions 3-8-1 

14 Cards  3-8-1 

15 Falcons 3-9 

16 Giants 2-10 

 

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost

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So it seems like the Bills are in with a 10th win in week 17 vs Jets unless Bills , TEN and HOU are tied at 10-6 with TEN owing a head to head sweep of HOU. Anyone else ran these scenarios ? That’s the only one I’ve come up with where the Bills are out at 10-6 .

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Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. 

 

TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. 

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Just now, ngbills said:

Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. 

 

TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. 

 

Stats wise, you would say HOU.

 

Either/or

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10 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. 

 

TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. 

Bills definitely don’t want TEN to beat Houston twice as that could create a scenario that knocks the Bills out at 10-6 if  10th win is vs Jets( which is definitely possible). At least, it’s the only one I found with playoff machine. 

Edited by Boatdrinks

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4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Bills definitely don’t want TEN to beat Houston twice as that could create a scenario that knocks the Bills out at 10-6 if  10th win is vs Jets( which is definitely possible). At least, it’s the only one I found with playoff machine. 

I guess my mindset is not on us being at 10-6. That would be a huge letdown given it means losses to BAL, PIT and NE. Higher expectations...must win 1 if not 2 of those games. 

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16 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Bills definitely don’t want TEN to beat Houston twice as that could create a scenario that knocks the Bills out at 10-6 if  10th win is vs Jets( which is definitely possible). At least, it’s the only one I found with playoff machine. 

 

Why does that scenario knock us out?

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41 minutes ago, ngbills said:

I guess my mindset is not on us being at 10-6. That would be a huge letdown given it means losses to BAL, PIT and NE. Higher expectations...must win 1 if not 2 of those games. 

I’d love for the Bills to get 11 or more wins, but there are expectations and then there’s reality. Their schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Ravens have won 8 in a row and beat both NE and SF. The Steelers may not have a dynamic offense, but they’re physical and tough. Their defense is a top ten unit in both yards and points allowed, ( BAL and PIT are 5th and 7th in scoring defense) and the game has been flexed to prime time. That won’t be a cakewalk by any means. Fortunately, the Bills have stacked wins and have some breathing room. I wouldn’t view a 10 win season as a letdown at all. The sequence of the wins shouldn’t tarnish the record, as this isn’t college football. While none of the remaining games is unwinnable, they’ve never beaten NE in foxboro when Brady played the entire game. Take it for what it’s worth. 

 

30 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Why does that scenario knock us out?

I’m not certain what the reason is, but a 3 way tie at 10-6 with the Texans , Bills, and Titans including a Titans sweep of HOU knocks the Bills out in my scenarios on playoff machine( ESPN). It doesn’t give explanations that I know of, and I haven’t reviewed tiebreaking procedures to figure it out. Seems to be one of the few situations the Bills could miss out in. Edit: this is factoring in a Bills loss to PIT 

Edited by Boatdrinks

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2 hours ago, ngbills said:

Bills likely playing KC or Houston; Also chance TEN if they can beat HOU twice. 

 

TEN would be best case, but dont see it. Who do we want to play HOU or KC? I have to go HOU because you have to think KC turns it on in the playoffs. 


Tennessee has Tannehill right? 
 

he can win games but can he sweep Houston?  
I’m not sold on that theory (yet) 

 

Getting to 11 will beat those that can only get to 10. 
 

Being the underdog steal one from Balt and or NE*** and I believe that they are safe.  
 


12-4 was something I posted lightheartedly but if they don’t relapse they can do it.  
 

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost

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6 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

 

 

I’m not certain what the reason is, but a 3 way tie at 10-6 with the Texans , Bills, and Titans including a Titans sweep of HOU knocks the Bills out in my scenarios on playoff machine( ESPN). It doesn’t give explanations that I know of, and I haven’t reviewed tiebreaking procedures to figure it out. Seems to be one of the few situations the Bills could miss out in. Edit: this is factoring in a Bills loss to PIT 

 

Tenn would win the division over Houston due to beating them twice.  Houston would get the wildcard against Buffalo because of a better conference record.

 

 I think the Steelers and Raiders would both get the wildcard over us at 10-6 also, unless the bills 10th win is against the steelers.  

 

Bills have tiebreakers over Tenn & Indy.  

 

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16 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I was just going to post that now Dalton is back in he can do us a favor again this year haha.

He already did...He has knocked out a resurgent NY Jets team who were dreaming of a post season after 3 straight *dominating* victories.

 

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5 hours ago, Adam727 said:

 

Tenn would win the division over Houston due to beating them twice.  Houston would get the wildcard against Buffalo because of a better conference record.

 

 I think the Steelers and Raiders would both get the wildcard over us at 10-6 also, unless the bills 10th win is against the steelers.  

 

Bills have tiebreakers over Tenn & Indy.  

 


to be redundant.  
I think Houston is the better team.

They may split the matchups but take the division.  
 


Re Steelers- beat them flat out and Bobs your uncle 

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Crap.  I thought this was the other way around... 

 

The Chiefs are playing in New England.   I should have known better.  The Putz always get these types of match ups on their turf.  

 

 

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There are a couple worst case scenario's where a 3 game slide has us needing a win and some help to make the playoffs in week 17. Would love to beat the Ravens this week to eliminate any such scenario. 

 

I have a pretty good feeling about the Pittsburgh game though. I think the switch to prime time actually helps both our offense and defense. Pittsburgh plays like five prime time games a year so I don't see them getting a motivation bump like our guys will. When the game was scheduled for the early 1pm kick off I saw potential for it to be like the Browns game. One we let slip away.

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9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

There are a couple worst case scenario's where a 3 game slide has us needing a win and some help to make the playoffs in week 17. Would love to beat the Ravens this week to eliminate any such scenario. 

 

I have a pretty good feeling about the Pittsburgh game though. I think the switch to prime time actually helps both our offense and defense. Pittsburgh plays like five prime time games a year so I don't see them getting a motivation bump like our guys will. When the game was scheduled for the early 1pm kick off I saw potential for it to be like the Browns game. One we let slip away.

I think both teams will be motivated regardless of the time slot. The prime time thing will just mean a more raucous crowd and tougher sledding for the Bills if anything. It would be great to beat the Ravens, but I actually think the scenario you described needing the week 17 win is a fairly realistic one. They may or may not need help based on the outcomes of games in weeks 14-16. That mostly hinges on the Titans and Raiders. Steelers are well coached , play good defense and can win with a “ caretaker” at QB. 

Edited by Boatdrinks
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32 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

Crap.  I thought this was the other way around... 

 

The Chiefs are playing in New England.   I should have known better.  The Putz always get these types of match ups on their turf.  

 

 

yep.  Mahomes gonna have a lot of derrrrpppp moments.

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So, do we want the titans or raiders this weekend? I’m thinking, without running scenarios, we want the titans. We have the tie breaker and they have a tough last three games. 

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