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Josh Allen haters: a 10 year history lesson on 1st round QBʻs


rayray808

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Love him or hate him... he is our QB. Although his "hero ball" turnovers tend to upset some, and yet his 4th quarter comeback/grit/off field polish tend to make others believe, we still seem to have a LOVE or HATE towards Josh Allen on this thread.

 

Here is are 1st round QBʻs in the last 10 years along with where they are at as of today... hopefully this puts things into perspective for those on both extreme sides of Allen thus far:

 

2018:

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, Browns - MOST PICKS IN THE LEAGUE 

3. Sam Darnold, USC, Jets - MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE

7. Josh Allen, Wyoming, Bills - WINS GAMES BUT THROWS PICKS

10. Josh Rosen, UCLA, Cardinals - TANKING FOR TUA, BENCHED AGAIN

32. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, Ravens - NOT BAD FOR A RUNNING BACK

2017:

2. Mitch Trubsiky, UNC, Bears - SHOULDER INJURY BUT FANS ARE SIMILAR WITH HIM AS WE ARE WITH JOSH

10. Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech, Chiefs - MVP BUT LOSING GAMES LATELY 

12. Desaun Watson, Clemson, Texans - UNREAL BUT JUMPS ON GRENADES AND RISKS INJURY

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams - FOLDING LIKE A LAWN CHAIR WEEK BY WEEK

2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles - HAD A STREAK BUT GOT HURT AND NEVER QUITE GOT BACK TO THAT LEVEL

26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos - BUST

___

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers - PICK CITY MIGHT NOT LAST THIS SEASON

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans - BENCHED TODAY FOR TANNAHANZ

___

2014:

3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars - BACK UP TO GOFF

22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns - OUT OF THE LEAGUE

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings - WINNING GAMES AS BACK UP BUT BREES WILL BE BACK

___

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills - OUT OF THE LEAGUE

___

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts - RETIRED

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins - BACK UP 

8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins - BACK UP WHO STARTED TODAY

22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns - BUST

___

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers - INJURED AND MIGHT BE A BACK UP WHEN HE RETURNS

8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans - BUST

10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars - BUST

12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings - BUST

___

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams - DONE

25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos - ANNOUNCING GAMES

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The hope is that the past couple of drafts have finally brought some good QB's into the league to replace the elites who are on their death beds (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, even Rodgers who is already 35 and has been dealing with injuries the past couple years.)

 

When those guys go out there's going to be a big gap until the next crop of elites can get to that next level. Looks like Mahomes and Watson are the young guns, with Wilson already established. Hope Josh Allen can join the ranks of the up and comer elites.

 

The lack of QB talent might be another reason why Brady can still win games at his old age, because there's no opposing QB's that are good enough to beat him.

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1 hour ago, rayray808 said:

Love him or hate him... he is our QB. Although his "hero ball" turnovers tend to upset some, and yet his 4th quarter comeback/grit/off field polish tend to make others believe, we still seem to have a LOVE or HATE towards Josh Allen on this thread.

 

Here is are 1st round QBʻs in the last 10 years along with where they are at as of today... hopefully this puts things into perspective for those on both extreme sides of Allen thus far:

 

2018:

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, Browns - MOST PICKS IN THE LEAGUE 

3. Sam Darnold, USC, Jets - MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE

7. Josh Allen, Wyoming, Bills - WINS GAMES BUT THROWS PICKS

10. Josh Rosen, UCLA, Cardinals - TANKING FOR TUA, BENCHED AGAIN

32. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, Ravens - NOT BAD FOR A RUNNING BACK

2017:

2. Mitch Trubsiky, UNC, Bears - SHOULDER INJURY BUT FANS ARE SIMILAR WITH HIM AS WE ARE WITH JOSH

10. Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech, Chiefs - MVP BUT LOSING GAMES LATELY 

12. Desaun Watson, Clemson, Texans - UNREAL BUT JUMPS ON GRENADES AND RISKS INJURY

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams - FOLDING LIKE A LAWN CHAIR WEEK BY WEEK

2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles - HAD A STREAK BUT GOT HURT AND NEVER QUITE GOT BACK TO THAT LEVEL

26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos - BUST

___

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers - PICK CITY MIGHT NOT LAST THIS SEASON

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans - BENCHED TODAY FOR TANNAHANZ

___

2014:

3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars - BACK UP TO GOFF

22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns - OUT OF THE LEAGUE

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings - WINNING GAMES AS BACK UP BUT BREES WILL BE BACK

___

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills - OUT OF THE LEAGUE

___

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts - RETIRED

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins - BACK UP 

8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins - BACK UP WHO STARTED TODAY

22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns - BUST

___

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers - INJURED AND MIGHT BE A BACK UP WHEN HE RETURNS

8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans - BUST

10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars - BUST

12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings - BUST

___

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams - DONE

25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos - ANNOUNCING GAMES

Thank you for putting the time in. Very interesting. 

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6 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Interesting...yes. Very good ?. I love those quick, 2 or 3 word judgements that encapsulate all those QBs’ careers. All in an attempt to defend Josh Allen apparently? ? who’da thunk it?

Pretty accurate though.  It must hurt that it goes against your dislike for Allen.

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7 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Interesting...yes. Very good ?. I love those quick, 2 or 3 word judgements that encapsulate all those QBs’ careers. All in an attempt to defend Josh Allen apparently? ? who’da thunk it?

 

I'm not sure whether to give you credit for being obstinate, or pity you with the "whoosh" gif.

 

Let's pretend it's the second one, and I'll try and explain.

Although the quick judgements for the recent QBs are clearly not the end of the story, the comments on those that entered 2014 and earlier are pretty accurate and damning (minus Teddy, perhaps.) Thus, taken holistically, it is a fair representation on the dearth of good QBs in the league.

We tend to lament the poor offensive line influx in recent years. Is it the lack of OL talent, or the lack of QB talent? Or - more likely - do both affect each other?

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Just now, oldmanfan said:

Pretty accurate though.  It must hurt that it goes against your dislike for Allen.


i don’t dislike Allen though, you see. Allen qb’s my team. I dislike people’s narratives about Allen - people that like to think he’s a finished product (or close to it) and that perceived shortcomings are all the faults of his teammates.

 

I like Allen. More than I thought I would. But realistic criticism of him has no place apparently. Especially here with people like you. 

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3 minutes ago, timekills17 said:

 

I'm not sure whether to give you credit for being obstinate, or pity you with the "whoosh" gif.

 

Let's pretend it's the second one, and I'll try and explain.

Although the quick judgements for the recent QBs are clearly not the end of the story, the comments on those that entered 2014 and earlier are pretty accurate and damning (minus Teddy, perhaps.) Thus, taken holistically, it is a fair representation on the dearth of good QBs in the league.

We tend to lament the poor offensive line influx in recent years. Is it the lack of OL talent, or the lack of QB talent? Or - more likely - do both affect each other?

Lotta big words and big ideas there. Not sure why you, who has obviously thought about this way more than the OP has, are defending that ridiculous original post. my only point was boiling all these other guys down and pointing at Allen and saying, basically, “SEE, he is the best” is not helpful, informative, or even interesting. I like Allen a LOT. I am genuinely excited to see how he develops. He doesn’t need a million online bully buddies to defend him. 
 

 

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52 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:


i don’t dislike Allen though, you see. Allen qb’s my team. I dislike people’s narratives about Allen - people that like to think he’s a finished product (or close to it) and that perceived shortcomings are all the faults of his teammates.

 

I like Allen. More than I thought I would. But realistic criticism of him has no place apparently. Especially here with people like you. 

Go back through my posts and you'll See plenty of critique.  I just don’t go out of my way to hijack threads to do so.

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1 hour ago, JoPar_v2 said:


i don’t dislike Allen though, you see. Allen qb’s my team. I dislike people’s narratives about Allen - people that like to think he’s a finished product (or close to it) and that perceived shortcomings are all the faults of his teammates.

 

I like Allen. More than I thought I would. But realistic criticism of him has no place apparently. Especially here with people like you. 

 

I don't think many people think he's a finished product at all, far from it, but his career is 16 games old. The pessimists, or realists as you like to call your selves, are the same as the more optimistic members just at different ends of the spectrum.

In the end it's just entertainment, the Bills are 4-1, and some choose to enjoy the game and the Bills. 

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59 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Go back through my posts and you'll See plenty of critique.  I just don’t go out of my way to hijack threads to do so.

I am not hijacking the thread bud. I do think the OP’s premise is terrible, that’s all. 

Just now, downunderbill said:

 

I don't think many people think he's a finished product at all, far from it, but his career is 16 games old. The pessimists, or realists as you like to call your selves, are the same as the more optimistic members just at different ends of the spectrum.

In the end it's just entertainment, the Bills are 4-1, and some choose to enjoy the game and the Bills. 

So looking at his very short career as a realist = pessimist now huh. 
 

funny thing is I am optimistic about Allen’s future; i can also be realistic about what he’s done so far. I know homers can’t grasp this...but really I hope you do someday

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4 minutes ago, JoPar_v2 said:

I am not hijacking the thread bud. I do think the OP’s premise is terrible, that’s all. 

So looking at his very short career as a realist = pessimist now huh. 
 

funny thing is I am optimistic about Allen’s future; i can also be realistic about what he’s done so far. I know homers can’t grasp this...but really I hope you do someday

 

Post after post, only pointing to the negative is the very definition of pessimistic, see below. 
 

pessimistic
/ˌpɛsɪˈmɪstɪk/
adjective
 
  1. tending to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen.
    "he was pessimistic about the prospects"
     
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14 minutes ago, downunderbill said:

 

Post after post, only pointing to the negative is the very definition of pessimistic, see below. 
 

pessimistic
/ˌpɛsɪˈmɪstɪk/
adjective
 
  1. tending to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen.
    "he was pessimistic about the prospects"
     

I, too, can use a dictionary. And where am I, “post after post” being negative on Allen? Check the game threads. Great passes? I say so (i think i’ve even called some *gasp* perfect passes!) but bad passes? I also say so. So if that somehow makes me a pessimist, okay. I think i am a realist and Allen is a mid-tier QB right now and people starting threads trying to drag down the great QBs to try to tie them closer to Allen are deluding themselves and polluting the board. You’re free to disagree.

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Jameis Winston is turning into a Ryan Fitzpatrick type QB...not in physical talent because he has tons of that and Fitzy doesn't, but in his pension for being a Jekyll and Hyde QB...one that you have no idea what you are going to get on a week to week basis.  He can throw for 350 yards and 4 TD's one week and then come out and throw 3 or 4 or 5 INT's the next week...sometimes he will put up huge yardage numbers, sometimes he won't.  His QB ratings over his career isn't terrible, at 87.5  and he has thrown 100 TD's to 68 INT's, but he is maddeningly inconsistent and seemingly goes from executing the gameplan masterfully one week to looking like he spent his time drinking and partying  with no idea of what the gameplan is the following week.  

 

Coaches can't trust that.  At some point they have to know what they are getting each week and they will rather play a consistent QB with limitations rather than an extremely talented one that is wildly inconsistent.

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5 hours ago, rayray808 said:

Love him or hate him... he is our QB. Although his "hero ball" turnovers tend to upset some, and yet his 4th quarter comeback/grit/off field polish tend to make others believe, we still seem to have a LOVE or HATE towards Josh Allen on this thread.

 

Here is are 1st round QBʻs in the last 10 years along with where they are at as of today... hopefully this puts things into perspective for those on both extreme sides of Allen thus far:

 

2018:

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, Browns - MOST PICKS IN THE LEAGUE 

3. Sam Darnold, USC, Jets - MONO BUT SHOWS PROMISE

7. Josh Allen, Wyoming, Bills - WINS GAMES BUT THROWS PICKS

10. Josh Rosen, UCLA, Cardinals - TANKING FOR TUA, BENCHED AGAIN

32. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, Ravens - NOT BAD FOR A RUNNING BACK

2017:

2. Mitch Trubsiky, UNC, Bears - SHOULDER INJURY BUT FANS ARE SIMILAR WITH HIM AS WE ARE WITH JOSH

10. Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech, Chiefs - MVP BUT LOSING GAMES LATELY 

12. Desaun Watson, Clemson, Texans - UNREAL BUT JUMPS ON GRENADES AND RISKS INJURY

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams - FOLDING LIKE A LAWN CHAIR WEEK BY WEEK

2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles - HAD A STREAK BUT GOT HURT AND NEVER QUITE GOT BACK TO THAT LEVEL

26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos - BUST

___

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers - PICK CITY MIGHT NOT LAST THIS SEASON

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans - BENCHED TODAY FOR TANNAHANZ

___

2014:

3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars - BACK UP TO GOFF

22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns - OUT OF THE LEAGUE

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings - WINNING GAMES AS BACK UP BUT BREES WILL BE BACK

___

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills - OUT OF THE LEAGUE

___

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts - RETIRED

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins - BACK UP 

8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins - BACK UP WHO STARTED TODAY

22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns - BUST

___

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers - INJURED AND MIGHT BE A BACK UP WHEN HE RETURNS

8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans - BUST

10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars - BUST

12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings - BUST

___

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams - DONE

25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos - ANNOUNCING GAMES

 

I think what your post shows is that real "franchise QBs" are few and far between, and that's even more strongly demonstrated if you include of 10 full years of QBs with 3 full seasons of NFL experience.  In the four classes between 2006 and 2009,  of the 10 QBs drafted in the first round, only Matthew Stafford (#1 2009), Matt Ryan (#3 2008), Joe Flacco (#18 2008), and Jay Cutler (#11 2006) have had any kind of success.  Moreover, many of the QBs who are now considered busts, were considered somewhat successful early in their careers. Mark Sanchez (#5 in 2009) and Christian Ponder both led their teams to playoff success in their first and/or second seasons.  Bortles looked like he'd finally figured things out in 2017 when he led the Jags to the AFC Championship game.

 

FTR,  some of the most successful proven QBs since 2010 have come from outside the first round:

2011:  Andy Dalton, 2nd round

2012: Russell Wilson and Nick Foles, both third rounders, and Kirk Cousins, fourth rounder

2014: Derek Carr, 2nd round

2016: Jacoby Brissett, 3rd round, and Dak Prescott, fourth rounder

 

The trend toward teams finding success with lower round QBs seems to be a recent one.  The impressive performances from some really young backup QBs like Gardener Minchew, Kyle Allen, and Mason Rudolph suggest that the trend is going to continue.

 

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5 hours ago, MJS said:

The hope is that the past couple of drafts have finally brought some good QB's into the league to replace the elites who are on their death beds (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, even Rodgers who is already 35 and has been dealing with injuries the past couple years.)

 

When those guys go out there's going to be a big gap until the next crop of elites can get to that next level. Looks like Mahomes and Watson are the young guns, with Wilson already established. Hope Josh Allen can join the ranks of the up and comer elites.

 

The lack of QB talent might be another reason why Brady can still win games at his old age, because there's no opposing QB's that are good enough to beat him.

 Totally agree with you and I will take it a step further. I'm not sure it's just QB talent that has been lacking. In the past 5 - 10 years there has been a significant drop in the level of quality talent at all of the positions. At least in mho anyway. To go even further, we may want to hold our breaths a bit longer with Mahomes and Goeff, probably even Watson. Both Mahomes and Goeff seem to be falling apart at the moment. 

 It may be that Football on a professional level may have hit its peek. I am seeing less and less parents allowing their kids to play the game as youngsters or even at the HS levels. The lack of talent getting fed into the system due to all the CTE fears (rightfully so) and long term health issues to the body the players have as they age is having an effect on parents decision to allow their kids to play.

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