At 4-1, what are your record and playoff expectations? [edited title]

[ny33]

At 4-1, the Bills have generally performed as anyone who closely follows the team should have expected as of the conclusion of preseason. Allen is going to lose us more games than he wins, but he has the ability and has shown flashes of the consistency needed to be .500 or better vs. real contenders, and it’s critical for the team to put away inferior opposition such as NYJ/CIN. Here's how I envision the season if we stay relatively healthy and Josh can generally execute as he did vs. Tennessee (take what you get vs. the defense, get the ball out quickly, and make just 1-2 boneheaded plays a game).

 

Elite, tireless defense that needs the offense to keep them off the field as the season takes its toll 

 The defense, returning 10 starters (Oliver replacing Williams), and retaining the starter-quality depth in a scheme that emphasizes defensive line rotation  and multiple quality nickel/slot cornerbacks (T. Johnson/S. Neal), is playing at a truly elite level with few material weaknesses. While I am somewhat concerned that the rare level of discipline, focus, and execution can be retained if the D continues to be forced to play 3+ series in a few minutes as the offense stalls out or turns over the ball- and believe that the spate of injuries in the Titans game has strong correlation to the defensive uptime- we have far-above-average depth that enables an overworked defense to stay fresh. 

2018 offense and how it has shaped Allen’s development

 

Last year's offense was, perhaps, one of the worst in NFL history, with our Wyoming rookie QB playing behind a line barely qualified to make NFL rosters (barring Dawkins), with McCoy his only weapon (and McCoy clearly rendered helpless behind a bottom-5 line); the pathetic effort/drops of Kelvin Benjamin, paired with a rookie WR in Zay Jones whose use to NFL teams is as a slot/underneath option in space/from the backfield rather than the downfield role he was expected to play, did lasting damage to Allen's psyche and has driven his "heroball" mentality. Combined with the inexcusable lack of a veteran backup, he was set up to fail, though his physical gifts and work ethic/drive shone in spurts last year. I consider the emergence of a motivated Foster as crucial to Allen's development, helping drive his confidence in the ability to throw downfield (with outstanding performance from Foster, especially for a rookie, in catching and adjusting to deep throws from an errant and green rookie).

2019’s NFL-caliber offense with disciplined/talented veterans and rookies ahead of the curve

 

Thankfully, Beane and co. more than made up for their 2018 offensive plan with the addition of a veteran deep threat in Brown, safety net in Beasley, as well as the signings of above-average linemen and the addition of promising TEs, a veteran back to mentor the dynamic Singletary, and the impressive recognition that they needed a player in the mold of Williams on the outside who can adjust to off-target balls (Jones had no shot at succeeding in his role despite generally improved play).

Just two returning starters (2^nd/3^rd year+ Jones) should mean meaningful strides for a talented offense over the course of the season

 

With just Allen and Dawkins returning as starters, and quality role players such as McKenzie (vastly improved and in a role that suits his skill set), plus the potential bonus of a fully-healthy Foster in a few weeks, the offense should continue to build on the Titans game, Allen's best so far, and the only one this season that I felt we were in control over. The team has committed 42 penalties so far- 8^th worst in the league- but this is skewed by a league-leading 12 false starts from an offensive line that needs time to continue to gel, and has generally played well barring the weakness to right side speed rushes/blitzes (equally, or primarily, due to Allen’s inconsistent progressions and hesitation to make quick decisions/adjust his release time to pressure). Compared to the Ryan years and most NFL teams, these Bills seem disciplined and should see a marked decline in penalties as the remade offense plays more than six games together.

Blowout wins mid-season vs. the inept (Mia./Wash.), exploiting the talented but chaotic Browns, and a win vs. the Eagles or Cowboys key for confidence

 

The Bengals and Jets games could have gone either way, but Allen's recovery from the alarming regression in the first half vs. the Pats, against a very good defense, should mean comfortable margins of victory over historically bad teams (Mia. 2x and Washington), a favorable matchup vs. a rattled Mayfield and his unprepared rookie head coach on the road, a toss-up game vs. an inconsistent, but talented, Eagles team, and a top-heavy Broncos team with some major weaknesses despite some elite talent (though Chubb is out for the year).  

 

Near-lock for playoffs going into the last third

 

I fully expect the team to be, at a minimum, 9-2 going into the Cowboys game, which should lock a playoff spot in a weak AFC. If Allen can play like he did vs. Tennessee consistently- which is to say 1-2 unacceptable plays vs. the 4-5, and keep up the frequency of drives into the opponent’s half, this team is good enough that I would be disappointed with even 9 wins, and expect to see an 11-12 win wild card team. 13 wins and the division are a legitimate possibility (expecting a loss @NE and @DAL + either the Eagles, Browns, or Ravens) if the Pats slip up a bit vs. good teams (their o-line is a weak point and expect them to lose 2-4 games @Phi, vs. Dal, @Hou, and vs. KC, with Week 16 @NE potentially having tiebreaker implications for the division.

Potential playoff matchups

 

I’m hoping to get a chance for revenge vs. a Ravens team that isn’t very talented defensively and saw Jackson exposed vs. NFL caliber teams (though, like Allen, he has made clear strides in fixing his weaknesses and is playing well enough to win a playoff game or two). I don’t think we have a favorable matchup at Houston against Watson and the deep threat of Fuller + Hopkins’ Hall of Fame talent, but it’s certainly a winnable game if this team can play in a relative shootout and contain Watt/Mercilus.

The Titans, Jags, and Colts are similarly well-coached (in that order, with Reich significantly more impressive) and mentally/physically tough (esp. the Colts), but also have inexperienced QBs (though Brissett is a seasoned vet). I would give the Bills the slight edge in what would likely be similar slugfests to the Titans game and expect them to come down to the winner of the turnover battle, even if by one, in a struggle for field position and points.

If we can win the wild card round on the road, anything is possible this year

 

Beating KC or NE would be very difficult in a divisional round road game. But the Colts showed that the Chiefs can be contained against a disciplined team with a punishing rushing attack and 2 4^th down conversions (one of the major points for McDermott/Buffalo to improve on that will mean the difference in high-stakes games).

But a playoff win under Buffalo’s belt, combined with a roster that is good enough to contain Brady and beat the Pats if Bad Josh mostly stays home- almost every other NFL starter, except the equally volatile Fitzmagic, likely would have won the Pats game with every other unit playing well-makes both matchups legitimately winnable.

This is a far cry from the 2017 playoff team, which was one of the worst wild card teams in NFL history and got some lucky turnover breaks + a solid defense and a QB who would never be able to beat a contender, but was one of the few guys who could deliver a gameplan good enough to win most of the Bills’ games against worse teams and sneak in at 9-7. Tyrod gets an incredibly unfair rep.; it’s not his fault that Buffalo did not cut ties with Manuel sooner and draft a QB in 2017, Mahomes or otherwise; happy to see him comfortable as a backup to Rivers on Anthony Lynn’s well-run and talented squad. Rivers, more so than most elite/borderline elite QBs, needs an average offensive line to succeed, and I don’t think the Chargers will make the playoffs as a result. Hope the o-line stays healthy, and I think people here have been way too critical of the pass blocking; other than QB, it's the unit that has the greatest impact on a generally-talented team.

 

 

Remaining game predictions:

 

W. vs. Mia (5-1)

 

L. vs. Phi (5-2)

 

W. vs. Wash. (6-2)

 

W. @ Cle. (7-2)

 

W @ Mia (8-2)

 

W vs. Den. (9-2)

 

L @ Dal. (9-3)

 

W vs Bal. (10-3)

 

W @ Pitt. (11-3)

 

L @ NE (11-4)

 

W vs. NYJ (12-4)

 

12-4 may seem optimistic, but this team should be disappointed with 9 wins or even 10 in this year's AFC and with the overall talent on the roster.

 

Playoffs:

 

WCR: W@ Bal., Ind., Jax, or Ten.; L @ Hou.

 

DIVR: L@ KC or NE

 

 

Edited October 13, 2019 by ny33

[Putin]

I’m not saying will go 13-3 but I think we can beat Philly at home 

[HOUSE]

You have us losing to the Eagles IN BUFFALO?

That team lost to the Atlanta Falcons

 

hummmmm

 

 

 

..

Edited October 13, 2019 by HOUSE

[Magox]

Ravens and Broncos games are at home.

 

Your take that Allen will lose more games than win I dont agree with that all.  He has proven that when it comes down to it and the rubber hits the road, he wins.  Unlike Tyrod.  And unlike Tyrod he is able to move the ball and help keep the defense fresh.

 

With that said, If things sort of Peter out the Bills could go as low as 9-7 but I dont forsee that happening.  If the offense can tighten up some of its inefficiencies and the defense continues to play at an elite level then they could go 13-3.    

 

I believe they will finish at 11-5.

[ny33]

15 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

You have us losing to the Eagles IN BUFFALO?

That team lost to the Atlanta Falcons

 

hummmmm

 

 

 

..

We should win the game, but just expect Allen to put us in a position to lose a game we should win at least one or two more times this season (flip‘em like the Bengals and Jets games, but vs. a better team). Would happily see some more growing pains early on if he is consistent vs. the AFC teams down the stretch. 

13 minutes ago, Magox said:

Ravens and Broncos games are at home.

 

Your take that Allen will lose more games than win I dont agree with that all.  He has proven that when it comes down to it and the rubber hits the road, he wins.  Unlike Tyrod.  And unlike Tyrod he is able to move the ball and help keep the defense fresh.

 

With that said, If things sort of Peter out the Bills could go as low as 9-7 but I dont forsee that happening.  If the offense can tighten up some of its inefficiencies and the defense continues to play at an elite level then they could go 13-3.    

 

I believe they will finish at 11-5.

Allen is a winner. I’m just saying that games like Cin/NYJ/Pats were hurt more by his mistakes than we gained from his clutch drives, and in his second season we will see a few more close ones that should probably be blowouts or comfortable wins if Josh makes too many inexcusable mistakes. I’m thrilled with his development, but expect to see one or two that we should win go the other way thanks to a turnover or two. Agree that 9-13 wins is the range for a healthy team. 

Edited October 13, 2019 by ny33

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

While we’re on the topic, it’s never too early to look at PlayoffStatus.com.  

[Baba Booey]

We will go 12/4 this year and have the third best record in the AFC. They will win a wild card game in the playoffs and get beat by KC in the divisional round. We will praise the coaching staff for how quickly they turned this around and McDermott will win coach of the year! 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

The first 5 games showed me that they can beat anyone with that defense. 

 

It also showed me they can lose to anyone who is halfway decent. The 0-5 bengals were leading in the second half. Then there’s the first half against the Jets. So I can see them losing to a team they’re “supposed to beat” 

 

I’m only confident in the two dolphins games and the redskins game. That’s already 7 wins though. So I’ll be disappointed if they don’t go 10-6 at least. That only requires them to go 3-5 against PHI, NE, PIT, CLE, BAL, DAL, NYJ, DEN

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Lol even the negatives are struggling to be positive.

 

I'm sticking with my 10-6, but wouldn't be surprised to see better.

[H2o]

18-1 baby!!!

 

Go Bills!!! 

 

~ The Senator

[RiotAct]

12-4; 5th seed (despite third-best record in the conference)

[dollars 2 donuts]

Look, I am going to go full throttle positive...12-4 and 13-3 are real, even as the team is situated and has played.

 

beating Philly at home will be big.  If that happens I do think this team can beat The Browns on the road, Pitt on the road, and Baltimore at home.  13-3 with losses to Dallas (even though they’ve been stumbling) and NE.

[BillsFanSD]

10-6 is the floor for this team, and I would be somewhat disappointed if we win only 10 games.  12-4 is a realistic aspiration.

 

As far as playoffs go, the best we can expect to do is the 5 seed, and I fully expect a wild card spot.  This may be the first year in eons when our Week 17 game is irrelevant not because we're out of playoff contention, but because we're locked into a wild card spot with no possibility of improvement.

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

You have us losing to the Eagles IN BUFFALO?

That team lost to the Atlanta Falcons

 

hummmmm

 

 

 

..

That team also beat Green Bay in Green Bay.

[CaptnCoke11]

I think we’ll beat Philly and lose 1 or 2 games against Baltimore/Cleveland/Pittsburgh.  So i have them 11-5 at worst 12-4 best 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Lol even the negatives are struggling to be positive.

 

I'm sticking with my 10-6, but wouldn't be surprised to see better.

Really think an improving 4-1 team is going to stumble to 6-5 the rest of the way?

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, ny33 said:

2018 offense and how it has shaped Allen’s development

 

Last year's offense was, perhaps, one of the worst in NFL history, with our Wyoming rookie QB playing behind a line barely qualified to make NFL rosters (barring Dawkins), with McCoy his only weapon (and McCoy clearly rendered helpless behind a bottom-5 line); the pathetic effort/drops of Kelvin Benjamin, paired with a rookie WR in Zay Jones whose use to NFL teams is as a slot/underneath option in space/from the backfield rather than the downfield role he was expected to play, did lasting damage to Allen's psyche and has driven his "heroball" mentality. Combined with the inexcusable lack of a veteran backup, he was set up to fail, though his physical gifts and work ethic/drive shone in spurts last year. I consider the emergence of a motivated Foster as crucial to Allen's development, helping drive his confidence in the ability to throw downfield (with outstanding performance from Foster, especially for a rookie, in catching and adjusting to deep throws from an errant and green rookie).

2019’s NFL-caliber offense with disciplined/talented veterans and rookies ahead of the curve

 

 

 

I think this point is underappreciated by some Bill's fans.  You can make a strong argument that last year Allen was put into a position every bit as bad as Rosen was.

 

Everything from not taking a lot of 1st team snaps during training camp & preseason; a terrible O-line; the worst reeving core (WR's & TE's) in the NFL and a weak stable of RB's.

 

That Allen has made the progress he has is a main reason to be optimistic. 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

TLDR.

 

My prediction is the same as it was last week, last month and last June.  
 

Maybe a variation of +/- 1 game 

 

12-4 to 14-2. 
I can’t go that much higher. 
 

Or did you expect lower?  
 

Shirley you jest 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

28 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Really think an improving 4-1 team is going to stumble to 6-5 the rest of the way?

 

No, I don't.

 

 

[MJS]

Excited to see how the games turn out. I have us with a loss to Baltimore but the rest of my picks are the same.

 

5th seed and a wild card win over maybe the Colts or Texans. Definately possible. Then we can see what happens in the later rounds. This is the year we break our playoffs win drought.