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We've scored TDs on 10 of 14 redzone trips??


Hebert19

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1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

 

Are you seriously asking who Dan Patrick is? If so, I'm gonna need to see some I.D. so I can let you buy beer.......

 

You sure can buy me a beer, ha ha! 

 

My point was not that I don't know the national media, but that the national media doesn't know diddly squat about The Bills. 

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3 hours ago, r00tabaga said:

Who said???

 

See link above.  It's legit.

 

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

Let's put "alarmingly" high into perspective shall we.

 

Baker leads the league with 8

 

Allen is tied at 7 with Goff and Matt Ryan. 4 of those came all at once against the #1 pass defense in the league NE.

 

Dak and Daniel Jones have 6 each.

 

3.  3 of them came all at once....  the 4th was Barkleys

 

But your base point stands, that's a nit.

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

See link above.  It's legit.

 

3.  3 of them came all at once....  the 4th was Barkleys

 

But your base point stands, that's a nit.

 

Thanks for the correction - don't mind at all.

 

But yeah, I was thinking about how his numbers would look without that melt down.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Here's another opportunity for me to rail against QB stats.  On a recent Dan Patrick show Patrick said the Bills were winning in spite of their QB.  He then cited Allen's TD/INT ratio.  A TD/INT ratio is irrelevant when a team chooses to run into the endzone instead of passing.  A TD drive is a TD drive no matter how it is achieved.  A more important stat is # of TD drives, and their length.  It doesn't mean anything if Allen tosses to a wide open Lee Smith, runs it in himself or hands off to Gore or Singletary for the TD.  A TD drive is a TD drive, period.  

 

Well.  I'm not sure it's irrelevant.  Give me a minute here.

 

Let's start with TD/INT ratio.  I did a bunch of stat grinding leading up to the draft in 2018, to evaluate QB success and then look at where successful QBs were drafted.   QB success is a fraught term - to some people a successful QB is a "franchise QB", a term whose meaning is hotly debated.  I was looking for a correlation with winning, a QB most would agree were good QB who could consistently take you deep in the playoffs with a defense and enough pieces around him, and then what statistics were correlated with that.  And one of the stats that was highly correlated was passing TD/INT ratio, and it was lower than you might think -  >1.5 was the number I came up with.  Why it matters, one can argue, but it matters.  (That's still a number so low some folks response was "you lost me", but the reason was I came up with 4 criteria and the successful QBs hit on all 4). 

 

My guess on one reason it matters is that if a QB throws significant numbers of picks, it may need successful passing to complete enough drives to overcome that.  Perhaps rushing doesn't do it, or can more easily be stifled.  I'm not really sure. 

 

Be that as it may, let's accept your hypothesis that it's total TDs scored, rushing or passing doesn't matter.   Allen has 8 total TDs and 7 ints.  That's a TD/INT ratio of 1.14, and still too low for sustained success.  

 

The season is young yet, and hopefully he will get it under control.

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

Thanks for the correction - don't mind at all.

But yeah, I was thinking about how his numbers would look without that melt down.

 

Better for reals.  Let's say he keeps it to 1, 8 TD 5 INT - TD/INT 1.6, we can win with that.  But we got to play the team that melted him 2x per year minimum and ideally 3x.  Somehow, the Bills and Allen got to raise his "melting point"

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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Better for reals.  Let's say he keeps it to 1, 8 TD 5 INT - TD/INT 1.6, we can win with that.  But we got to play the team that melted him 2x per year minimum and ideally 3x.  Somehow, the Bills and Allen got to raise his "melting point"

 

Belichick lowers the melting point for a lot of QBs and Allen is just going to have a short memory and know that at least twice a year he is going up against that team. The Bills also have to figure out a better way to help Allen change his approach to those games so he truly understands that he is not shouldering the load in those games. I don't think they are asking him too, but I do think Daboll could game plan a bit better early to set the tone for Allen to settle him a bit.

 

Just conjecture, but I feel like Allen approaches those games like it is on him alone to beat them and I think he is keenly aware of how much this fan base wants to win against that team and he takes on and internalizes too much of that pressure. He just needs to do his 1/11th as McDermott is fond of preaching and lean on his team mates and trust them, and play smart football which will involve throwing more balls away or occasionally wrapping the ball up and eating a sack.

 

 

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Just now, WideNine said:

Belichick lowers the melting point for a lot of QBs and Allen is just going to have a short memory and know that at least twice a year he is going up against that team. The Bills also have to figure out a better way to help Allen change his approach to those games so he truly understands that he is not shouldering the load in those games.

 

Having the ST unit block correctly on 4th down so we don't have a blocked punt run in for a TD on our 2nd drive be a good start.

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According to PFR:

 

The Bills have had 59 drives, 8 of which ended in an interception.   About two out of every 15 drives.

 

League-wide, 125 of 615 drives have ended in interceptions this year.  About two out of every ten. 

 

Allen's actually doing better than league average protecting the ball.  I'll admit...I'm surprised.

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5 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Can't recall this being posted but heard it this AM.  That's how you win in this league score touchdowns when given opportunity and play good defense.  A testament to the coaching on this team as 'the herd' said.  

 

He also said this is best D in the league. 

% might level off some, but I I expect us to continue to get better here getting Singletary back and having a big threat like Duke

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7 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Yes we are excellent once we get to the redzone. The problem is we don't get there enough due to turnovers and drives stalling once we get the ball into opponent territory.

 

We move the ball fairly well, just need to stop shooting ourselves in the proverbial foot.

Would like to see the difference with and without Devin.

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9 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

He's thrown one more INT than Dak Prescott.  The same number as Goff and Ryan.  And one fewer than Hall of Famer Baker "Flutie" Mayfield.

 

 

But Allen is the only one that's inaccurate out of that group so his INTs count for more.  

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 10/12/2019 at 1:19 PM, Boatdrinks said:

Regardless of how the Bills are scoring their TDs , Allen’s tossed an alarmingly high number of INTs so far this season. The team has overcome them, so it’s not entirely off base. Allen has had a lot to do with their winning as well ; the Bills aren’t exactly hiding their QB. 

 

Alarmingly high number of INTs, huh? When's the last game he's had one?

 

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4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Alarmingly high number of INTs, huh? When's the last game he's had one?

 

The post was from OCT 12. Week to week league. Allen’s been a lot better with the hero ball INTs, but at the time it was a problem. 

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On 10/12/2019 at 6:14 PM, DC Tom said:

According to PFR:

 

The Bills have had 59 drives, 8 of which ended in an interception.   About two out of every 15 drives.

 

League-wide, 125 of 615 drives have ended in interceptions this year.  About two out of every ten. 

 

Allen's actually doing better than league average protecting the ball.  I'll admit...I'm surprised.

 

HOW DARE you tell the truth   :lol:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Alarmingly high number of INTs, huh? When's the last game he's had one?

 

Its been awhile but ever since the Pats game they made Allen more of a game manager. That's probably why. I would love to see more big plays from the offense. I think McDermott is afraid of turnovers so it doesn't happen much. 

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10 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Continue to score tds when we get down there.  3 of 4 yesterday and should have been 4 of 4 if we wouldn't have gotten cute. 

 

After seeing what happened when they did just march Gore into the line how could anyone hate the playcall on the first down when they tried to get Gore out in the flat but the Redskins covered it. I thought Kroft flashed free across the middle but Josh didn't see him and he has to throw that one away (which he has been doing a better job with) he can't take the sack there. The 2nd down play which was the attempted pop pass to McKenzie was too cute, I agree. The third down was a busted play from the start we dropped the snap.

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1 minute ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

HOW DARE you tell the truth   :lol:

 

 

Part of the reason for the low INTs is they have lowered the amount of high risk deep ball plays. At some point they need to be able to score on big plays. I think McDermott is afraid to let Allen loose cause of fear of turnovers. 

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