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Lucky or good? Maybe both (WHAM article)


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"The old saying goes, 'it's better to be lucky than good.'  So far this season the Bills have been both."

https://13wham.com/buffalo-plus/bills-latest-news/you-need-some-luck

 

"When asked after the [Titans] game if he felt fortunate to get the win, Sean McDermott had a moment of reflection and honesty.

“One of my great mentors, the late, great Jim Johnson, always said, ‘you need some luck’ and he was right,” smiled McDermott. “So we’ll take it.”

 

Yes, there's luck involved, but there's always luck involved.  The problem I have with what-if'ing any play is, unless it's the last play of a game, there's always a causation chain around any play.  If the Titans don't miss the first FG, maybe the Bills make some different playcall decisions.  Maybe they're better decisions, maybe they're not - we won't ever know.

 

 

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i might disagree with you on the last play not being causation chain bound. if anything, only the first play of a game is not constrained by that chain. however, you're correct, we won't ever know the woulda/coulda/shoulda's, nor do they really matter.

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

"The old saying goes, 'it's better to be lucky than good.'  So far this season the Bills have been both."

https://13wham.com/buffalo-plus/bills-latest-news/you-need-some-luck

 

"When asked after the [Titans] game if he felt fortunate to get the win, Sean McDermott had a moment of reflection and honesty.

“One of my great mentors, the late, great Jim Johnson, always said, ‘you need some luck’ and he was right,” smiled McDermott. “So we’ll take it.”

 

Yes, there's luck involved, but there's always luck involved.  The problem I have with what-if'ing any play is, unless it's the last play of a game, there's always a causation chain around any play.  If the Titans don't miss the first FG, maybe the Bills make some different playcall decisions.  Maybe they're better decisions, maybe they're not - we won't ever know.

 

 

I agree about the endogeneity underlying luck and subsequent play calling while attributing a result to luck. It is only the last play where if a lucky thing happens that decides the game, one can solely attribute the result to luck.

 

Hence the saying "we make our own luck".

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5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

"The old saying goes, 'it's better to be lucky than good.'  So far this season the Bills have been both."

https://13wham.com/buffalo-plus/bills-latest-news/you-need-some-luck

 

"When asked after the [Titans] game if he felt fortunate to get the win, Sean McDermott had a moment of reflection and honesty.

“One of my great mentors, the late, great Jim Johnson, always said, ‘you need some luck’ and he was right,” smiled McDermott. “So we’ll take it.”

 

Yes, there's luck involved, but there's always luck involved.  The problem I have with what-if'ing any play is, unless it's the last play of a game, there's always a causation chain around any play.  If the Titans don't miss the first FG, maybe the Bills make some different playcall decisions.  Maybe they're better decisions, maybe they're not - we won't ever know.

 

 

It looked like the last drive when they iced the game they could have scored a TD, they moved the ball down to the Titan 30ish yard line before kneeling to kill the clock.

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It feels like 2 years ago when Lady Luck was on our side the way things are going right now. The difference this time is we have a better all around team to go with the breaks we've been catching. The defense is better, the OL is better, and the overall depth is better. Teams of destiny seem to experience things like this. Let's just hope the bounces continue to go our way. 

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4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They aren't good until Josh Allen becomes a consistent QB.

 

Compared to the 6 bottom teams ...   They're good enough.  (yet, need to be better) 

35 minutes ago, H2o said:

It feels like 2 years ago when Lady Luck was on our side the way things are going right now. The difference this time is we have a better all around team to go with the breaks we've been catching. The defense is better, the OL is better, and the overall depth is better. Teams of destiny seem to experience things like this. Let's just hope the bounces continue to go our way. 

 

2 years ago Lady Luck was on our side....  

Last year Lady Luck was not on our side....  

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11 hours ago, SF Bills Fan said:

I agree- if he makes some of those FGs, we have a different game plan and we still would have won. Bottom line, luck is where opportunity meets preparation. Stumble bums don't luck into winning games in the NFL.

You're absolutely right. The Bills teams of Dick Jauron and Chan Gailey didn't get those "luck" moments or the good bounces. This team does. This team is also very well coached/prepared.

 

As much as we hate how the Pats* get all kinds of lucky bounces and breaks, there's a reason. Good teams get them. Bad ones don't. 

Glad to see us getting them for a change.

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Honestly, given we have moved the ball so well vs the number of points, our injury situation, and how our D has handled special teams and offensive errors, i'd say we've over come bad luck more than had good luck.

 

also, our d has tipped soooooo many passes, and not come up w many picks, that's a non good luck thing too.

 

the only lucky thing i can see so far, is that we've played some weak teams, but of course so has new england and it doesn't get mentioned there.

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