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Early Week 7 Line: Bills -15.5 over Dolphins


stevestojan

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12 hours ago, Xwnyer said:

Yikes don’t like that line at all hoping we don’t come out flat and overly confident but I would this Coach will keep them from overlooking fins

 

EVERY game scares me! This is the NFL. I certainly like our odds, but will not be crazy confident until the Fat Lady sings. 

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Division games are typically close because the teams know each other well but that wasn’t the case the last time these 2 teams played and obviously Miami is different almost completely from last year. So hard to say. I could see a 10 to 14 pt win at home which is probably around where the line will come in after week 6

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1 hour ago, FLFan said:

I no longer bet on football, but I would stay away from any spread this large in the NFL no matter who it is.  We will see what happens to the spread after this week when, as I expect, the Dolphins get their first win.  The Skins are truly a horrible team.  

Or they could lose to the Skins and look worse.

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1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

We get up by 10 our play calling gets very, very conservative.  The only way I see getting from a 10pt lead to a 17pt lead is a pick six by the defense.

This will require a boat load of money put on the Dolphins.  I don't see it.


 

That is totally incorrect and has been proven so far this year - Their play calling has been the same - the execution has been poor.  
 

They throw the ball at a similar percentage rate and have not gone to the run run pass punt or any traditional conservative play calling motifs. 
 

Please explain how they are very very conservative when they have a 10 point lead - I am very interested to understand your vision on this.

 

Edited by Rochesterfan
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25 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

That is totally incorrect and has been proven so far this year - Their play calling has been the same - the execution has been poor.  
 

They throw the ball at a similar percentage rate and have not gone to the run run pass punt or any traditional conservative play calling motifs. 
 

Please explain how they are very very conservative when they have a 10 point lead - I am very interested to understand your vision on this.

 

LOL.  There's a fine line between conservative play calling and poorer execution.  The % run vs pass doesn't prove your point as there are conservative run plays and conservative pass plays.  But this is a tangent that I don't care to take with you.  Call it whatever you want to call it.  We get up, we don't score as much as easily as we did.  We need that pick 6 either way.

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14 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'd pry put a small wager on the moneyline for the Fins which would pry be around plus 700 or so (still kicking myself for not betting the moneyline against the Vikings last year).  A small consolation if the Bills blow it.  Fins have been close to the Cowboys and Chargers in the first half of their last two games.  It's the NFL so any given Sunday.

It's a good spot for such a bet. Win/win. Win 7 times your money or the Bills go to 5-1. I'd still root for the Bills, but it's an idea.

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15 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

???

 

So far? 

NYETS   17 pts -   # 25th in PPG,     # 4  in Defense (total yards)  (with a gazillion Bills turnovers) 

GI Ants  28 pts -   # 24th in PPG,     #31 in Defense (total yards) 

BeenGals 21 pts - # 27th in PPG,    #32 in Defense (total yards) 

NE** **  10  pts -  # 1st in PPG,      # 2  in Defense (total yards)  (with half a gazillion Bills turnovers) 

Tenny   14  pts -    # 6th in PPG,      # 11  in Defense (total yards) 

 

18 PPG    For Buffalo's offense .   Considering the Bills played 3 of the NFL's top 10(ish) defenses. 

 

To be fair, there's not 3 top 10 teams there in scoring and that's what you are talking about.  You have the 24th, 25th and 27th teams in scoring allowed.  The Pats and Titans are good, but this team has not exactly scored a lot.

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Though I think we have the capability of winning by that much, unless the defense gets some points off turnovers, I don't see us winning by over 2 TD's. 

This team plays more like the Bills of old, where they'll play up or down to the competition.

They'll step up & play good teams close, or they'll play poorly, and let bad teams stay in games.

Even if the Dolphins are a dumpster fire, there's always a couple games each year where the 0 - X team comes out & beats the favorite, so I'm not expecting a complete blowout.

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8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

To be fair, there's not 3 top 10 teams there in scoring and that's what you are talking about.  You have the 24th, 25th and 27th teams in scoring allowed.  The Pats and Titans are good, but this team has not exactly scored a lot.

 

Did you not see the #'s? 

 

Three games the Bills scored on average 22 ppg.  More than the opponents allowed in ppg.

Two games of 10 and 14 points against two teams good at keeping other teams from scoring.    The Bills were the first team to score a TD against the Pats D this season.  (The Giants added one themselves last night.)

 

If the Bills have one blowout game of say 45 to 12, avg goes up.   There are half a dozen good teams that are averaging 22 PPG through week 5. 

Other than the overabundance of turnovers - It is not that bad imo.

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost
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11 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Did you not see the #'s? 

 

Three games the Bills scored on average 22 ppg.  More than the opponents allowed in ppg.

Two games of 10 and 14 points against two teams good at keeping other teams from scoring.    The Bills were the first team to score a TD against the Pats D this season.  (The Giants added one themselves last night.)

 

If the Bills have one blowout game of say 45 to 12, avg goes up.   There are half a dozen good teams that are averaging 22 PPG through week 5. 

Other than the overabundance of turnovers - It is not that bad imo.

I see the numbers, but you have to be honest about them. 22ppg vs the 24th, 25th and 27th defense in scoring.   There have been signs of life, but this is not a very good offense right now.  Most of the issues stem from turnovers, there should have been a lot more points in all of those games, but you don't get "should have been" points.  We all love it when Brady throws a pick in the endzone, but on the same token, can't claim we scored on a fumble on the 10, ect..

 

Execution has to happen, not excuses.

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38 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I see the numbers, but you have to be honest about them. 22ppg vs the 24th, 25th and 27th defense in scoring.   There have been signs of life, but this is not a very good offense right now.  Most of the issues stem from turnovers, there should have been a lot more points in all of those games, but you don't get "should have been" points.  We all love it when Brady throws a pick in the endzone, but on the same token, can't claim we scored on a fumble on the 10, ect..

 

Execution has to happen, not excuses.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/offense/stat/total/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/desc

 

Team PPG
Green Bay Packers
23.8
New Orleans Saints
23
Indianapolis Colts
22.6
Minnesota Vikings
22.4
Jacksonville Jaguars
22.2
Oakland Raiders
20.6
Los Angeles Chargers
20.6
Atlanta Falcons
20.4

I was being honest with them.   Would I like to see more PPG  Hell yes.

They are close to many teams thus far this season.  

 

It is not PANIC mode here at the BYE.

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25 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/offense/stat/total/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/desc

 

Team PPG
Green Bay Packers
23.8
New Orleans Saints
23
Indianapolis Colts
22.6
Minnesota Vikings
22.4
Jacksonville Jaguars
22.2
Oakland Raiders
20.6
Los Angeles Chargers
20.6
Atlanta Falcons
20.4

I was being honest with them.   Would I like to see more PPG  Hell yes.

They are close to many teams thus far this season.  

 

It is not PANIC mode here at the BYE.

Ok, so check the records of the teams in question here, THEN reference back to the fact the Bills average less than all of them in reality and then you can try to twist it to your belief that you only count the games against teams picking in the top 10 of next years draft because of their defence being 24th or worst in scoring. I'm sorry, your argument doesn't hold any water at all.  You still have a team who has averaged 18 ppg in the real world. Your argument for "Good" teams is laughable at best.  Saints - Teddy Bridgewater is doing more, Colts - Jacoby Brissett isn't exactly a great QB, Vikings - are you even trying?, Jags - the Mustache!, Falcons are good this year? C'mon now.

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On 10/10/2019 at 3:17 AM, stevestojan said:

Not sure the last time I saw the Bills favored by more than two TDs, but I’ll take it. 

 

Dear Josh Allen,

1) Please don't take this game lightly.  Please.

2) Please don't take it too seriously, either.  Eventually some will come up with the "Battle of the Wrong Josh" idea.  Steady as She Goes, Sir.  You're playing the Dolphins D, leave their offense to our defense.

3) You got nothin' to prove to those "Wrong Josh" types.  Play your game, stick to your team.

 

12 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I see the numbers, but you have to be honest about them. 22ppg vs the 24th, 25th and 27th defense in scoring.   There have been signs of life, but this is not a very good offense right now.  Most of the issues stem from turnovers, there should have been a lot more points in all of those games, but you don't get "should have been" points.  We all love it when Brady throws a pick in the endzone, but on the same token, can't claim we scored on a fumble on the 10, ect..

 

Execution has to happen, not excuses.

 

You know, maybe it's just me, but the only "number of points" I care about is whether or not we finish with more than the opposition. 

That's 4 "Yes" and 1 "No" for now.

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