cv05 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html I've always liked this site midway through the season as they take into account the strength of schedule. It's a "Monte Carlo" style simulation where they calculate probability after running the outcome of thousands of possible ways the season could play out. They have an option to change to 50/50 for each game in which the probability drops from 85% to 67%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jletha Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Yikes, Patriots SB chances at 30% seems high, but I get it. My pipe dream is that the Pats lose 1-2 against the Chiefs/Texans and we go into week 16 with a game to decide the division which we win... And we lose the next week to the Jets and end up the 5 seed afterall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) Our victory also affected Tennessee the most negatively, dropping their odds of making the playoffs by -22.1%! Bills also have the 7th best odds to win the SB at 4.1%?? Edited October 7, 2019 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv05 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) 14 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Our victory also affected Tennessee the most negatively, dropping their odds of making the playoffs by -22.1%! Bills also have the 7th best odds to win the SB at 4.1%?? I guess that speaks to how easy our schedule is compared to the teams ahead of us. It also takes into account we'll likely have to play an extra game (wild card) than a team like KC, who is below us in probability odds, but will likely win their division. I'd bet odds of winning the division significantly effects this SB odds simply because of that extra game played. Edited October 7, 2019 by cv05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, jletha said: Yikes, Patriots SB chances at 30% seems high, but I get it. My pipe dream is that the Pats lose 1-2 against the Chiefs/Texans and we go into week 16 with a game to decide the division which we win... And we lose the next week to the Jets and end up the 5 seed afterall. I like my pipe dream better. The Pats lose to Philly, Cowboys, Chiefs. We go into Foxboro and win. We take the division. The Pats don’t even make the playoffs and Brady/Belichick both retire. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, cv05 said: I guess that speaks to how easy our schedule is compared to the teams ahead of us. It also takes into account we'll likely have to play an extra game (wild card) than a team like KC, who is below us in probability odds, but will likely win their division. I'd bet odds of winning the division significantly effects this SB odds simply because of that extra game played. I'm surprised the SB odds are that high to be honest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv05 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, matter2003 said: I'm surprised the SB odds are that high to be honest... Well, think if each team was equally matched - the odds would be 1/32 = 3.125%. I would argue that the Bills are better than average, which would put them in that range of 4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 45 minutes ago, cv05 said: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html I've always liked this site midway through the season as they take into account the strength of schedule. It's a "Monte Carlo" style simulation where they calculate probability after running the outcome of thousands of possible ways the season could play out. They have an option to change to 50/50 for each game in which the probability drops from 85% to 67%. Next 5 games....Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, at Miami, at Cleveland Philadelphia and Cleveland are not easy Winn’s. At worst they are 7-3. Thry could be 9-1 last 6 games Denver, at dallas, Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at New England , jets i see thrm going 3-3. Dallas and New England are difficult. I see them winning one of Baltimore snd Pittsburgh. i think Pittsburgh is better than their record given the close losses they had. new England comparisons. new England plays at Houston and host KC at Philadelphia which is equivalent to our dallas game. They host dallas. They are also at Baltimore and host Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 The best way to the playoffs is beating your next opponent. Rest up this week guys and put a good game plan together for the Dolphins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobChalmers Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said: The best way to the playoffs is beating your next opponent. Rest up this week guys and put a good game plan together for the Dolphins. You do understand you are talking to fans, not NFL players and coaches, right? No amount of rest or game-planning on my part will affect the Bills' season outcome, but as a fan, it's totally reasonable to assess where their season looks like it's headed. Edited October 7, 2019 by BobChalmers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Tarot cards are just as accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cv05 Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 1 hour ago, I am the egg man said: Tarot cards are just as accurate. I strongly disagree... This uses pretty simple mathematics by picking the winner and loser of every NFL game thousands of times (with some probability weighting for stronger/weaker teams) to determine the most likely outcomes. Take a snapshot of this and look back of it at the end of the season - it'll likely be pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 3 hours ago, BobChalmers said: You do understand you are talking to fans, not NFL players and coaches, right? No amount of rest or game-planning on my part will affect the Bills' season outcome, but as a fan, it's totally reasonable to assess where their season looks like it's headed. I was talking about what the player and coaches need to do. You do realize that the players win games and not fans. I didn't quote anyone with my post, I made a comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyal2dagame Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Our Superbowl victory odds increased! I'm calling in sick for the parade as I type this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBlue Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 6 hours ago, Scott7975 said: I like my pipe dream better. The Pats lose to Philly, Cowboys, Chiefs. We go into Foxboro and win. We take the division. The Pats don’t even make the playoffs and Brady/Belichick both retire. I really like this pipe dream brother I died laughing when I finished reading it hahaha I hope it comes true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Definitely didn’t need the Colts to win that game last night. Also, I wonder how serious we have to take the Raiders. It’s still early, but it’s never to early to root against other teams lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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