Next Gen Stats says Bills' pass blocking is NFL's second-best

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I looked at where this stat comes from.  ESPN.  Here is the link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

 

 

Both our tackles Nsekhe and Dawkins rate #8 and #10 at 92% according to them and Morse ranks 9th at center with 95%.  Our guards did not make top 10.  They also have a pass rush win rate for defense.  Only Oliver cracked their top 10 list.  Not sure how they are ranking the teams as a whole because we have 3 guys in the top 10.  So do the Packers but their guys individually rank higher than ours yet their team ranks lower.

As for my own eyeballs... I would say we have a "boom or bust" offensive line.  There are times where guys are just blown up from the snap with people on Allen almost immediately.  Then there are other times when our line does really well and Allen has lots of time.

 

Every line tends to have that kind of boom or bust nature. There are incredibly few, if any, lines that are winning across the board consistently 

 

i wouldn’t argue that we are the 2nd best but think we are probably much more in the thick of it among good lines than most realize because they have unreasonably high expectations of what other teams are getting. Essentially all have at least 1-2 weak links even when healthy and start rolling injuries and it gets even worse. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

I’ve thought our oline has done a nice job all year. Glad that the data supports me.

 

in light of all the criticism on here, I figured I was alone and was just thinking they were good because they are relatively better than the last few years. 

 

No you are right. They have been decent - especially the interior guys. Josh needs to get the ball out quicker. He did a decent job of that through 2 weeks but the last two he has definitely reverted to type a bit. Anything longer than 2.7 seconds average time to throw is generally bad news in the NFL of 2019. 

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

To be honest, I thought it was going to be higher than that given the amount of times Allen is dodging and weaving with his legs back there too.  So that was actually pretty solid considering how much he uses his legs.  

 

It has been higher the last two weeks. He was at 2.7 through 2 games so has been above 3 seconds the past 2. 

[Kenosha2Buffalo]

Just shows how bad Josh is struggling to adjust to the NFL.  #1 hold onto the ball to long . #2 run

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Um ...

 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Eyeball test says otherwise.

 

 

 

Which is what the eyeball test will do if your QB holds the ball too long.

 

It's apparently not for nothing that McDermott keeps saying Josh has to take what the defenses give him.

 

TheNextGenStats look at how well the linemen hold their blocks for the first 2.5 seconds.

Edited October 5, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

 

I agree— seems high. But some would argue that JA holds the ball too long. I would like to see the QB stats on release time. 

 

Edit: I found the QB release time stats. JA is 2.9 seconds, which is on the higher side but not abnormally high. For example, Dak is the same. So don’t think that explains anything.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

 

 

 

 

Hunh? "Not abnormally high"? He's ranked 32nd out of 38 in terms of time taken. That is absolutely abnormally high. Yes, Prescott is the same, but that makes Prescott abnormally high as well.

 

It's a tough stat to understand, because a guy can be taking a long time for good reason or for bad reasons. But with Josh's poor rates on long passes this year, I'd argue he isn't holding the ball and sprinting for good reason. And again, McDermott keeps harping on taking what the defense is giving him, which is basically shorter routes where the ball comes out quicker. In a game or two he's done that well this year, but not consistently.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

11 hours ago, matter2003 said:

A large part of the problem are deep drops and Allen holding the ball too long.

You are right on point about the deep drops.  Allen also does a poor job on blitz recognition and finding the hot receiver.  Hopefully, he will improve that with experience.  Overall, my eye test tells me that the line has played pretty well.  As fans, we have a tendency to dwell on the plays that disappoint us, especially if they cost us a scoring opportunity or result in a turnover.  For those who suggest that the o- line isn't greatly improved over last season, I recommend a trip to the optometrist for your own eye test.  For me, the data tells most of the story.

[Aireskoi]

What I'm seeing is a lack of rhythm to the offense.  The plays seem disjointed and off-timed a lot.  McDermott and Frazier do this constantly to other teams' offenses.

 

Experience will help Josh and the whole group, but the plays that are "easy money" have to be made.  When they're not everything gets off timing.

 

The O'line stat is aided by Josh's scrambling ability.  The Patriots ends were playing contain at times, that would show well for the stat but not because they beat their man.

 

My hope is that Josh will consistently make the plays in the rhythm of the offense, but when it's needed he'll put on the cape.  I'm not sold that Josh can be a guy you want throwing 50 times a game.  Give him Russell Wilson's game plan.  We have the defense, maybe we need another RB to help, we'll see how Singletary returns.  We have all these TE's, I would just pound that thing and play defense.  Josh will beat them in the 4th quarter.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No you are right. They have been decent - especially the interior guys. Josh needs to get the ball out quicker. He did a decent job of that through 2 weeks but the last two he has definitely reverted to type a bit. Anything longer than 2.7 seconds average time to throw is generally bad news in the NFL of 2019. 

 

It has been higher the last two weeks. He was at 2.7 through 2 games so has been above 3 seconds the past 2. 

In watching the all 22, I thought Allen spent a lot of time the last two weeks trying to buy extra time just to find a receiver with any separation at all - while facing greater and more consistent pressure. I thought the receivers struggled to get separation against Cincy (particularly their corners). It was even worse against the Pats* across the board. Of the 44 pass attempts, there were, literally, a handful of plays where Allen had time to throw and had at least one receiver with any real separation. It was very remiscent of last year.

[HOUSE]

Note to myself, stop blaming the OL, WRs, TEs, start looking at the QB & Brian Daboll

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, HOUSE said:

Note to myself, stop blaming the OL, WRs, TEs, start looking at the QB & Brian Daboll

In the Pats* game, there was enough blame to spread across all of those positions and coaching. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

In watching the all 22, I thought Allen spent a lot of time the last two weeks trying to buy extra time just to find a receiver with any separation at all - while facing greater and more consistent pressure. I thought the receivers struggled to get separation against Cincy (particularly their corners). It was even worse against the Pats* across the board. Of the 44 pass attempts, there were, literally, a handful of plays where Allen had time to throw and had at least one receiver with any real separation. It was very remiscent of last year.

 

It is fair to say the Cincy corners and New England corners had the better of those matchups I agree. I think there were chances Allen missed but our receivers have been 2nd best the last two weeks. Most of the opportunities have been underneath and Allen definitely still has room for growth in that "take what the defense gives you" mode. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is fair to say the Cincy corners and New England corners had the better of those matchups I agree. I think there were chances Allen missed but our receivers have been 2nd best the last two weeks. Most of the opportunities have been underneath and Allen definitely still has room for growth in that "take what the defense gives you" mode. 

 

Fair assessment.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 hours ago, Kenosha2Buffalo said:

Just shows how bad Josh is struggling to adjust to the NFL.  #1 hold onto the ball to long . #2 run

Tyrod was famous for his “time to pass” stats in Buffalo.   It was his best attribute 

Funny how things can change 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

You are right on point about the deep drops.  Allen also does a poor job on blitz recognition and finding the hot receiver.  Hopefully, he will improve that with experience.  Overall, my eye test tells me that the line has played pretty well.  As fans, we have a tendency to dwell on the plays that disappoint us, especially if they cost us a scoring opportunity or result in a turnover.  For those who suggest that the o- line isn't greatly improved over last season, I recommend a trip to the optometrist for your own eye test.  For me, the data tells most of the story.

Sometimes those deep drops can actually make pass blocking harder especislly on the tackles because it gives the DE a much better angle to get to the QB

[MDH]

I likely also has to do with how often Allen is blitzed. I believe the stat I saw yesterday was that the Bills were blitzed on 41% of their drop backs. It didn't say how often they were blitzed with 5, 6 or 7 but anything over 5 and it's on the QB to make sure he identifies the free man (men) and gets the ball out to the proper outlet. How many times have we seen the blitz come and Allen quickly dumps the ball off to the back or Cole for a big gain? I can't think of any. He usually takes off running.

 

After games I've seen a lot of fans come to the board and say how horrid the OL was and I'm usually thinking, "they can only block 5, Allen needs to do a better job vs. the blitz."

 

That said, Ford has been a train wreck at LT. I'd guess at least half of the legit QB pressures this line has allowed have come from him.

[Paulus]

Member when these stat places had Demitrus Bell at a top All-Pro worthy LT? I member...

 

Seriously, it is its purpose, but these o-line rankings are usually flawed. 

[billsredneck1]

7 hours ago, MDH said:

I likely also has to do with how often Allen is blitzed. I believe the stat I saw yesterday was that the Bills were blitzed on 41% of their drop backs. It didn't say how often they were blitzed with 5, 6 or 7 but anything over 5 and it's on the QB to make sure he identifies the free man (men) and gets the ball out to the proper outlet. How many times have we seen the blitz come and Allen quickly dumps the ball off to the back or Cole for a big gain? I can't think of any. He usually takes off running.

 

After games I've seen a lot of fans come to the board and say how horrid the OL was and I'm usually thinking, "they can only block 5, Allen needs to do a better job vs. the blitz."

 

That said, Ford has been a train wreck at LT. I'd guess at least half of the legit QB pressures this line has allowed have come from him.

RT and it's like we still have mills.

[Dopey]

I'm happy with the progress our line is making. We are 4 games into a season with four new starters and Nike is hurt so a rookie at rt. I think Ford will eventually be fine and didn't expect much from a rookie tackle. I wanted Ford to sit most if not all this season with all the free agents we brought in. Wouldn't have been the worst thing. Hope Nike is better after the bye week. Would make a big difference.

[BigDingus]

On 10/4/2019 at 5:02 PM, HOUSE said:

The Bills offensive line is better than some suggest, according to ESPN’s Next Gen Stats.

Stacking up the “pass blocking win rate” for every team, the Bills clock in at a 65.3 percent success rate. That number only barely trails the best team in the NFL, the Cowboys, who are at 65.6 percent.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/04/next-gen-stats-says-bills-pass-blocking-is-nfls-second-best/

 

It's really not hard to see that. The only people who would argue otherwise are people that are trying to WILL Josh Allen into being the QB they want him to be by blaming everyone else for every offensive struggle he has.

But much of the time Allen starts running before there's even any pressure, or he locks onto his 1st read the entire duration of a play hoping to see them get open before passing instead of passing based on timing, then takes a sack or throws a pick instead of getting rid of the ball. 

When the only people with lower Passer Ratings are Josh Rosen & Ryan Fitzpatrick (who are just screwed playing for the Dolphins) and Big Ben who's been injured, it's pretty clear much of the responsibility is on you. And in terms of INT's, only Jared Goff has more (by 1), but he also has 7 passing TD's to go with 7 INT's, so at least he's breaking even.

 

In terms of starting QB's who have played all 4 games, only Kirk Cousins has fewer passing TD's (but he also has a positive TD/INT ratio too). Allen is seriously struggling to show he's a capable PASSER, even with a revamped O-line and much improved additions at the skill positions. He's even getting a boost from defense & ST, consistently giving him good field position to start drives from. 

The O-line is not the problem. Outside of needing to reel in the holding & false start penalties, they've been significantly better than any time in recent years.