Josh Allen - Accuracy on the Long Ball

[Buffalo716]

Fans dig the deep ball .  Problem is they don't understand how low % the throws are

 

First you need to take chemistry into account... Josh Allen had chemistry with Robert foster deep last season..  foster hasn't been playing much

 

It takes a while to develop deep chemistry and he's still learning it with John Brown and him and Zay cant connect deep

 

Then you have people who think it's a gimme. Like it's a cake throw that is completed routinely... The Bills haven't even given up 1 40+ yarder in 4 games but it's easy?

 

The NFL average for deep balls ( balls over 20 yards is about 35%-40% completion) 

 

Last season Allen was ahead of Cam Newton and Joe flacco and just behind Brady and big Ben.

 

Yea Allen is a bit off rn with the deep ball but he is also working out timing kinks with WRs.. believe it or not it is actually pretty hard to hit someone running 20 mph in stride with a football 40 yards downfield with a defense that gets paid too

 

It will come

 

 

Edited October 2, 2019 by Buffalo716

[BuffaloBaumer]

It's worth it for PI alone

[BringBackOrton]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Fans dig the deep ball .  Problem is they don't understand how low % the throws are

 

First you need to take chemistry into account... Josh Allen had chemistry with Robert foster deep last season..  foster hasn't been playing much

 

It takes a while to develop deep chemistry and he's still learning it with John Brown and him and Zay cant connect deep

 

Then you have people who think it's a gimme. Like it's a cake throw that is completed routinely... The Bills haven't even given up 1 40+ yarder in 4 games but it's easy?

 

The NFL average for deep balls ( balls over 20 yards is about 35%-40% completion) 

 

Last season Allen was ahead of Cam Newton and Joe flacco and just behind Brady and big Ben.

 

Yea Allen is a bit off rn with the deep ball but he is also working out timing kinks with WRs.. believe it or not it is actually pretty hard to hit someone running 20 mph in stride with a football 40 yards downfield with a defense that gets paid too

 

It will come

 

 

So if it’s 40% for league average of deep passes, and Allen is less than 40%, does that make him worse than average?

[Buffalo716]

Just now, BringBackOrton said:

So if it’s 40% for league average of deep passes, and Allen is less than 40%, does that make him worse than average?

Is big Ben? Hell no

 

It's all circumstances as well and they need to be taken into consideration

 

If Allen is completing 29% in year 4-5 that would be troubling.. But he needs to get his timing down. John Brown is the only deep threat out there consistently and you can take that away

 

I would assume his timing would be better week 10 than week 2 and he will start connecting at a higher clip, even if marginally

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

Is big Ben? Hell no

 

It's all circumstances as well and they need to be taken into consideration

 

If Allen is completing 29% in year 4-5 that would be troubling.. But he needs to get his timing down. John Brown is the only deep threat out there consistently and you can take that away

 

I would assume his timing would be better week 10 than week 2 and he will start connecting at a higher clip, even if marginally

How many QB’s have new WR’s this year? Does Gardner Minshew or Lamar Jackson have more experience with their WR’s than Allen does? Why do your explanations only apply to Allen and not most QB’s in the NFL?

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, jletha said:

I think youre misremembering honestly. What deep ball did he ever hit on last year except for the Foster one against the Jags (which was still kind of a crossing route). The only deep ball I can remember hit completing was to Zay against the Chargers but that was 5-10 yards under thrown still.

 

IMO he has never been good at deep balls, people just want him to be because of his arm. But I could be mis-remembering too.

 

Foster against the lions was a thing of beauty. Not sure if that counts as deep, as it was about 40 yards?

[HOUSE]

Zay Jones is smoking weed before every game

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

How many QB’s have new WR’s this year? Does Gardner Minshew or Lamar Jackson have more experience with their WR’s than Allen does? Why do your explanations only apply to Allen and not most QB’s in the NFL?

It doesn't just apply to Allen.

 

Lamar had Hollywood brown running open by 10 yards a few times and hit him.. Allen had Zay Jones by 3 steps, circumstances

 

Big Ben has one of the best deep balls in the world and was statistically"below average" last season ... Did he lose it? No

 

Teams gameplanned and took it away. The same way teams are making Allen go 80 yards in 10 plays , they aren't giving it to him in 1... When he has someone deep, it's Zay Jones usually,  not a coincidence... 

 

Coordinators will gameplan to take away brown deep... And will live with Zay Jones going deep 1on1 because they don't think he will make the play

 

Defensive players and coordinators get payed too. It's pick your poison with a guy like Big Ben or Rodgers, they can throw everywhere anytime

 

Josh Allen's short game scared nobody going into the season , so they took away the deep ball

 

12 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Foster against the lions was a thing of beauty. Not sure if that counts as deep, as it was about 40 yards?

A deep ball in the NFL is a pass over 20 yards

[Mikey152]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

It doesn't just apply to Allen.

 

Lamar had Hollywood brown running open by 10 yards a few times and hit him.. Allen had Zay Jones by 3 steps, circumstances

 

Big Ben has one of the best deep balls in the world and was statistically"below average" last season ... Did he lose it? No

 

Teams gameplanned and took it away. The same way teams are making Allen go 80 yards in 10 plays , they aren't giving it to him in 1... When he has someone deep, it's Zay Jones usually,  not a coincidence... 

 

Coordinators will gameplan to take away brown deep... And will live with Zay Jones going deep 1on1 because they don't think he will make the play

 

Defensive players and coordinators get payed too. It's pick your poison with a guy like Big Ben or Rodgers, they can throw everywhere anytime

 

Josh Allen's short game scared nobody going into the season , so they took away the deep ball

 

A deep ball in the NFL is a pass over 20 yards

 

I think a WR's ability to track the football is seriously underrated when it comes to a deep ball...A QB is not super precise on something that far away and with that high of a launch angle.  It's all about timing and a WR's ability to adjust.  

 

Case in point, Tyrod Taylor was one of the best deep ball throwers in the league...when he targeted Sammy Watkins.  After Sammy left, Tyrod couldn't connect to save his life.  

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Mikey152 said:

 

I think a WR's ability to track the football is seriously underrated when it comes to a deep ball...A QB is not super precise on something that far away and with that high of a launch angle.  It's all about timing and a WR's ability to adjust.  

 

Case in point, Tyrod Taylor was one of the best deep ball throwers in the league...when he targeted Sammy Watkins.  After Sammy left, Tyrod couldn't connect to save his life.  

Thank you and that's been a major point of mine for years

 

Zay Jones CANT TRACK A DEEP BALL... A Really good receiver slows down or speeds up to track the football in the air! It never just falls into your lap!

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Mikey152 said:

 

I think a WR's ability to track the football is seriously underrated when it comes to a deep ball...A QB is not super precise on something that far away and with that high of a launch angle.  It's all about timing and a WR's ability to adjust.  

 

So true about tracking the ball. So many “perfect” bombs are the receiver adjusting his speed and angle to the ball in the air. Zay is horrible at that. 

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, jletha said:

I think youre misremembering honestly. What deep ball did he ever hit on last year except for the Foster one against the Jags (which was still kind of a crossing route). The only deep ball I can remember hit completing was to Zay against the Chargers but that was 5-10 yards under thrown still.

 

IMO he has never been good at deep balls, people just want him to be because of his arm. But I could be mis-remembering too.

 

I think so too.  Sure he has blind squirrel hit a few, but he consistently over or under throws most of them.  The dude can throw it a country mile, we're just not real sure where it's gonna come down.

 

Up until Sunday and early in the 2nd half he has looked dead on on the short to mid throws.  Concentrate the offense around that and pounding the rock. Throw a few long ones each game to keep the D honest.  You might get PI on one.  But don't count on this being a big part of our O.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The ball he threw deep to Foster in the Bengals game was right on the money in full stride; just a terrific play by the safety to run across the field and leap up and knock it away.

But that was double coverage and shouldn't have been thrown. His only accurate deep throw all season should have been a pick.

[Playoffs?]

Footwork and lack of internal clock 

[MJS]

He's trying it less, so I think it's a sample size issue. Plus, throw out anything he did against the Patriots because he was completely rattled most of the game facing an elite defense and a scheme designed to confuse him.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

So true about tracking the ball. So many “perfect” bombs are the receiver adjusting his speed and angle to the ball in the air. Zay is horrible at that. 

Hard to "track" a ball when it's five yards beyond you and you're running in a straight line as fast as you can. Let's not make excuses here. 

[Augie]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Didnt seem to have a problem with it last year

 

We didn’t throw long much (if at all) the first 3 weeks this year, and we started, inexplicably, against the Pats* where he was under serious duress and soiling his pants. I won’t judge him on a lousy half against Belichick in his 15th start. It happens. Routinely. 

 

He later looked to be coming around....until a cheap shot ended things. Still not pretty, but I’m not freaking out. 

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

But that was double coverage and shouldn't have been thrown.

No, it wasnt. It looked that way originally but on the All-22 it was completely different. The safety that looked deep was not the safety that knocked away the ball. That guy came from completely the other side of the field and made a ridiculous play to get there and knock it away. It wasn't double coverage at all. The safety on Fosters side came in and didn't cover him at all. 

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Hard to "track" a ball when it's five yards beyond you and you're running in a straight line as fast as you can. Let's not make excuses here. 

I'm talking all three years he has been horrible tracking the ball. Not any specific play. 

[billsherd]

I don't recall him being good at the deep ball. 

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

No, it wasnt. It looked that way originally but on the All-22 it was completely different. The safety that looked deep was not the safety that knocked away the ball. That guy came from completely the other side of the field and made a ridiculous play to get there and knock it away. It wasn't double coverage at all. The safety on Fosters side came in and didn't cover him at all. 

I'm talking all three years he has been horrible tracking the ball. Not any specific play. 

I am not talking about last year or tyrod’s last year. I am talking about this year alone.

Edited October 3, 2019 by dave mcbride