Have You Started To Lose Faith in Josh Allen?

[VW82]

 

6 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Many in the media and especially analytics types care more about being right than anything else. Lots of these folks are numbers geeks , not sports types. When they’re wrong they are silent. That’s the media world we live in today . Hot takes and declarations get more clicks than nuance. It’s an example of opinion from someone who has observed the change in media over the years. 

 

I think you may have missed the point. If Benoit cares most about being right then he probably isn't stuck on some preconceived bias which might get in the way of that.

 

Also, you seem to be talking in generalities about something that has nothing to do with this conversation. Benoit might be considered an analytics type (I don't know) but he certainly didn't use that as the basis for this article. Rather, he broke down game film and talked about play design, coverage scheme, and the QB decision tree. This article was anything but a hot take.    

[Motor26]

His issues are correctable. But I’m not sure if how he plays is too ingrained in his style now.  I hope he can watch film over and over and drill it into his brain to get rid of the ball.

[VW82]

6 hours ago, ngbills said:

Watch the film...defending JA blindly is the doing the same thing you are saying. He has work to do. Until then people are right. 

 

Watch the film...defending JA blindly is the doing the same thing you are saying. He has work to do. Until then people are right. 

 

You definitely missed the point. I wasn't defending Josh at all or even talking about him. It was about another poster who was assuming that Andy Benoit, the SI MMQB writer, was only writing critical things about Allen because he didn't like him / was trying to protect some alleged prior bias against him. That poster was exhibiting hostile attribution bias.  

[VW82]

6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Benoit has some good points but he focused on negatives and didn’t mention the positives Allen showed 

 

This isn't exactly true. https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/03/buffalo-bills-offense-josh-allen

 

Quote

At 237 pounds, he can shake would-be sackers in Roethlisberger-ian fashion. And as a runner, he plays faster than his 4.75 forty time, and is one of the league’s best scramblers. Defenses learned last year that you can’t play man coverages against Allen without spying him. 

 

Quote

On the one hand, Allen’s eagerness to target that wheel route illustrated a capacity for learning. He did not, after all, ignore the same route concept twice.

 

Quote

For Bills coaches, the workaround is an emphasis on designer deep balls, which play to Allen’s arm strength

 

I agree that the overall tone of the article is that of a hatchet job. This makes sense given that the thesis is the Bills offense under Allen hasn't been very reliable. Think of it from this perspective: who would you say is the worst starting QB in the NFL? Based on passer rating it's Josh Rosen. Well even Josh Rosen does more good things than bad in an NFL game -- these guys are professionals after all. Does that mean NFL writers should have to equally focus on all the good things Rosen does as well as the bad when they're writing about how he's the worst QB in the league? I'd argue that would just confuse the point (and the reader).

 

FWIW among QBs who have played all four weeks to date, Allen ranks second last in passer rating and third last in QBR which takes into account his running and clutch play in the 4th quarter. Focusing more on the negative isn't exactly being disingenuous. 

Edited October 4, 2019 by VW82

[Tiffany980]

On 9/30/2019 at 6:26 AM, Phil The Thrill said:

I was at the game Sunday and there was 1 reason the Bills lost the game.  They lost the game for one reason - Josh Allen.  He was absolutely putrid at QB.  I’m a big fan of Allen but he was THE reason why we lost.  
 

We’re starting to get to the point where you can’t use the whole “lack of experience” excuses for Allen.  For all the progress be seemed to make, we still see him revert back to the traits (holding onto the ball, poor footwork passing up short routes, inaccuracies) from college.  
 

We saw on Sunday that the thing he does well, scrambling, leaves his open for huge cheap shots to the head.  

He also doesn’t seem to be elevating the offense either.  Take a look at how much better NYG has been since Daniel Jones took over last week.  Or how much better Cleveland was behind Baker and not Tyrod.  Or to a MUCH lesser extent Gardiner Minshew in Jacksonville.   Allen has struggled to generate much more than 20 points per game.
 

So have you lost faith in Josh Allen?

 

If you haven’t lost faith, what give you hope that he will eventually start elevating the offense?  

I’m completely on the fence, but trending toward skepticism, unfortunately. 

Allen is athletic, but not a good QB. He's the weak link in your offense. In every game this year, what is the biggest complaint? Allen, Allen, and Allen again...

 

 

[zow2]

Did you see the ball trajectory on those Russell Wilson passes tonight?  Really high so the WR can run under it.  Josh needs to do some of that on the long ball.  Can’t always be a frozen rope.  Watch Barkley if he plays. He’s more of a drop it in the bucket passer.

[WideRightRevenge]

Did anyone listen to the Buffalo Beat podcast by Joe B & Matt F .. and let me be clear I typically like listening (net of the cheesy awards at end of the show) ... but holy cow .. "Wyoming Josh" references .. another overreaction.  They claim "Wyoming Josh" is bad.  My thoughts are if Josh wasn't playing for Wyoming (only team to give him scholarship) . .he doesn't end up a top 10 pick for us.  He showed examples of traits there that had many teams grading him as high as they did.

 

Yes he sucked last week .. but easy its game 15.  Check out the Goat's stat lines from weeks 5-8 on 2002 .. his 2nd year as starter.  Wow .. what would of happened had they lost faith back in 2002 ... to quote Mr. Rodgers ... R - E - L - A - X ... I'll take 3-1 and I'll also take only one loss since December 24th ... by my count that's almost 10 months.

 

WK   DATE                 OPP                        RESULT                          G     GS    COMP  ATT     PCT             Yrds           AVG        TD   INT  Sck   Sck Yrd  Rate         Att Yrds     Avg        TDs Fum FL

5	10/06	@ MIA	L   13-26	1	1	17	31	54.8	240	7.7	2	2	3	32	74.7	1	0	0.0	0	1	1
6	10/13	GB	L   10-28	1	1	24	44	54.5	183	4.2	1	3	2	17	44.0	5	26	5.2	0	2	1
7	Bye			--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	0.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
8	10/27	DEN	L   16-24	1	1	15	29	51.7	130	4.5	1	0	5	20	75.4	2	5	2.5	0	--	--

[Zerovoltz]

19 hours ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

I can’t believe this is even a topic of discussion guys in his second year and were already talking about getting rid of him. No wonder Buffalo can never develop QBs we just shatter their confidence when they struggle and we as fans don’t get what we want

 

THIS ^^^  

 

When he was scouted and drafted, EVERYONE said it would be a project, it would take time.  ....and surprise, he's a work in progress and it's taking time.  You are a year into him.  He clearly has elite tools that are worthwhile to continue onward with.  He has shown he can be clutch....reason to be concerned...of course...but truly no reason yet to consider going in another direction.  His potential REMAINS too great at this time, to consider anything else.  AFTER 8 games NEXT YEAR, you ought to know if the program needs to continue or if it's time to think about plan B.  right now, you are 3-1 with a tantalizing raw talent at QB who is trying to develop.  Thats not a bad spot for him or your team.  

[whatdrought]

6 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

THIS ^^^  

 

When he was scouted and drafted, EVERYONE said it would be a project, it would take time.  ....and surprise, he's a work in progress and it's taking time.  You are a year into him.  He clearly has elite tools that are worthwhile to continue onward with.  He has shown he can be clutch....reason to be concerned...of course...but truly no reason yet to consider going in another direction.  His potential REMAINS too great at this time, to consider anything else.  AFTER 8 games NEXT YEAR, you ought to know if the program needs to continue or if it's time to think about plan B.  right now, you are 3-1 with a tantalizing raw talent at QB who is trying to develop.  Thats not a bad spot for him or your team.  

 

Um... excuse me, you’re not a bills fan, and you obviously hate the bills and your logic is not welcome here. Kindly leave as we prepare to burn this ***** city to the ground. 

 

 

- sarcasm, obviously.

 

great post, thanks for the encouragement!

[Zerovoltz]

2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Um... excuse me, you’re not a bills fan, and you obviously hate the bills and your logic is not welcome here. Kindly leave as we prepare to burn this ***** city to the ground. 

 

 

- sarcasm, obviously.

 

great post, thanks for the encouragement!

 

I enjoy watching Allen and the Bills.  .....I also enjoy reading posts here...good fans....the one thing that I find funny and very entertaining is @transplantbillsfan and his relentless attempts to rationalize and redefine accuracy.  LOL.....Allen for the most part hasn't been and still isn't very accurate....there NOTHING wrong with acknowledging that its an issue...that is being worked on....it was the issue in college etc...  ....If I were applying for a job as a porn star....I'd hire Transplant to write up my resume because if there was ever a guy who could make a compelling case that 6 inches is much larger than 6 inches...it would be Transplant.  After converting to metric, then using a complicated set of formulas, then giving certain words, more vauge difinitions, then using google translate to convert that to mongolian, then converting back to standard measurement and english launguage again, along with a chart taking into account my blood pressure, metabolism, time of day, diet, lunar cycle and current position of Haley's comet, I am SURE that people could be convinced that I was porn qualified.   Just admit Josh has work to do and needs to get better at hitting the target accurately more often.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

I enjoy watching Allen and the Bills.  .....I also enjoy reading posts here...good fans....the one thing that I find funny and very entertaining is @transplantbillsfan and his relentless attempts to rationalize and redefine accuracy.  LOL.....Allen for the most part hasn't been and still isn't very accurate....there NOTHING wrong with acknowledging that its an issue...that is being worked on....it was the issue in college etc...  ....If I were applying for a job as a porn star....I'd hire Transplant to write up my resume because if there was ever a guy who could make a compelling case that 6 inches is much larger than 6 inches...it would be Transplant.  After converting to metric, then using a complicated set of formulas, then giving certain words, more vauge difinitions, then using google translate to convert that to mongolian, then converting back to standard measurement and english launguage again, along with a chart taking into account my blood pressure, metabolism, time of day, diet, lunar cycle and current position of Haley's comet, I am SURE that people could be convinced that I was porn qualified.   Just admit Josh has work to do and needs to get better at hitting the target accurately more often.  

 

You only have 6 inches, huh? You are off my favourite list.

[ngbills]

6 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

Did anyone listen to the Buffalo Beat podcast by Joe B & Matt F .. and let me be clear I typically like listening (net of the cheesy awards at end of the show) ... but holy cow .. "Wyoming Josh" references .. another overreaction.  They claim "Wyoming Josh" is bad.  My thoughts are if Josh wasn't playing for Wyoming (only team to give him scholarship) . .he doesn't end up a top 10 pick for us.  He showed examples of traits there that had many teams grading him as high as they did.

 

Yes he sucked last week .. but easy its game 15.  Check out the Goat's stat lines from weeks 5-8 on 2002 .. his 2nd year as starter.  Wow .. what would of happened had they lost faith back in 2002 ... to quote Mr. Rodgers ... R - E - L - A - X ... I'll take 3-1 and I'll also take only one loss since December 24th ... by my count that's almost 10 months.

 

WK   DATE                 OPP                        RESULT                          G     GS    COMP  ATT     PCT             Yrds           AVG        TD   INT  Sck   Sck Yrd  Rate         Att Yrds     Avg        TDs Fum FL

5	10/06	@ MIA	L   13-26	1	1	17	31	54.8	240	7.7	2	2	3	32	74.7	1	0	0.0	0	1	1
6	10/13	GB	L   10-28	1	1	24	44	54.5	183	4.2	1	3	2	17	44.0	5	26	5.2	0	2	1
7	Bye			--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	0.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
8	10/27	DEN	L   16-24	1	1	15	29	51.7	130	4.5	1	0	5	20	75.4	2	5	2.5	0	--	--

Here is the problem. You left out what the "Goat" did in the weeks prior to week 5 vs MIA. In week 1 it was 300 yds and 3 tds. In week 3 it was 400 yds and 4 tds. He had been throwing for at least 270 yds each game and completing 70% of his passes. 

[r00tabaga]

No

[reddogblitz]

18 hours ago, Motor26 said:

His issues are correctable. But I’m not sure if how he plays is too ingrained in his style now.  I hope he can watch film over and over and drill it into his brain to get rid of the ball.

 

I'm not sure.  The whole reason why people like Troy Aikmen and I and many others say accuracy can't be taught is because of exactly what we saw Sunday.  You can work on stuff and footwork until the cows come home but when under pressure in a real game you fall back to old habits.  

 

The one that concerns me the most was the play where he was not under a ton of pressure but instead of stepping into it like I'm sure he and Jordon Palmer worked really hard in the off season, he falls on old habits and hops off his back foot and lobs it up in the air resulting in an easy  pick.

 

It's like the old Mike Tyson saying "Everybody has a plan until you get hit in the mouth."

 

Go BILLS !!

Edited October 4, 2019 by reddogblitz

[Motor26]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I'm not sure.  The whole reason why people like Troy Aikmen and I and many others say accuracy can't be taught is because of exactly what we saw Sunday.  You can work on stuff and footwork until the cows come home but when under pressure in a real game you fall back to old habits.  

 

The one that concerns me the most was the play where he was not under a ton of pressure but instead of stepping into it like I'm sure he and Jordon Palmer worked really hard in the off season, he falls on old habits and hops off his back foot and lobs it up in the air resulting in an easy  pick.

 

It's like the old Mike Tyson saying "Everybody has a plan until you get hit in the mouth."

 

Go BILLS !!

 

You can teach a player to throw the ball away when the pressure is coming. And make sure they throw it ALL the way out of bounds when they do it. Also, you can teach a guy to read defenses and not throw into double coverage. Josh's accuracy this year has improved on short and medium routes. His deep ball is not very good. He's over and underthrown at least 2 TD's that I can think off of the top of my head. 

[Rocky Landing]

Reasons that I might lose faith in Josh Allen;

- If he had not progressed from last season.

- If there was a reason to believe that he had reached his ceiling.

- If there were moderate, or severe deficits in his game that could not be coached out, or positively addressed.

Reasons I would NOT lose faith in Josh Allen:

- If he has a bad game.

- If he makes a bad throw.

- If he hasn't turned into Payton Rothlisbrady in one season.

 

I have not lost faith in Josh Allen.

[london_bills]

Just now, Rocky Landing said:

Reasons that I might lose faith in Josh Allen;

- If he had not progressed from last season.

- If there was a reason to believe that he had reached his ceiling.

- If there were moderate, or severe deficits in his game that could not be coached out, or positively addressed.

Reasons I would NOT lose faith in Josh Allen:

- If he has a bad game.

- If he makes a bad throw.

- If he hasn't turned into Payton Rothlisbrady in one season.

 

I have not lost faith in Josh Allen.

What about accuracy? 

[JoeF]

Nope....and it took me a while to gain faith in him.  The final score would have been 24-16 Bills last week with Josh playing the last two drives.  Daboll and Allen had figured it out.  Bills gained almost two times the yards the average the Pats had yielded to their first 3 opponents.

Edited October 4, 2019 by JoeF

[Rocky Landing]

2 minutes ago, london_bills said:

What about accuracy? 

That would be a moderate to severe deficit-- one which I do not believe he has.

[london_bills]

17 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

That would be a moderate to severe deficit-- one which I do not believe he has.

Meaning you don't believe he has accuracy? or that you don't believe he has a deficit with accuracy?

 

Re reading your list I presume you mean he doesn't have an issue with accuracy thats not correctable.

 

I disagree on that one, I think he's wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times (deep ball), underneath pass to gore in the flats, low passes sometimes etc

Edited October 4, 2019 by london_bills