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Depending on the outcome of tomorrows game...AJ Green

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21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Let's not forget that Beane ALREADY gave up a third for a far inferior WR to get over the hump in 2017.  Green is by all accounts a "process guy" who, when healthy, is one of the best receivers of the last decade. Do you think the Cowboys regret trading a first for Amari Cooper last season? 

 

I don't forget, and I love AJ Green when healthy, but there are two differences: 1) Benjamin had his 5th year locked up 2) Amari Cooper was active playing when he was traded, not injured with uncertain timeline to return as AJ Green is at present. 

And I don't think Beane was so satisfied by what he gave up for that third, that he's likely to go to the well again for a player with those key differences.

 

 

21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Well, it is a long-view notion to trade for him because he presents no cap hit or commitment beyond this season and the Bills are so far under the cap that the money is effectively meaningless. A wise approach to the long view is to exploit relatively low-cost opportunities to win in short-window time frames provided the team is good. Judging from their remaining schedule, I have the Bills getting to 11-5 in fairly comfortable fashion. Winning a playoff game seems like a legit goal, and for that, you need some elite talent on offense. 

 

This is a different definition long-view notion than I believe Beane holds (or most people).  Money is meaningful because it can roll over into subsequent seasons, when the Bills will need it to extend and sign their developing players or target new FA.  And draft picks are meaningful because they can be used to target new contributors.  I don't think Beane views giving up a draft pick in the first 3 rounds for an injured, elderly WR on (at best) an 11 game rental as a "relatively low-cost opportunity" and I don't think Daboll and McBeane see any WR is the key piece that will help us win this season.

 

No WR will help us if Josh Allen doesn't take care of 1) himself and 2) the ball.  But Daboll believes he can scheme enough guys open that if JA does take care of himself and the ball, we can hang with anyone.

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Beane has never had this job before. He's making it up as he goes along, in concert with McDermott. They have a plan and theories but neither of them has been in charge like this before. Beane doesn't have a trend yet, and it's surely a different mindset and strategy once you have reached a point of being in the middle of a playoff hunt than being on the cusp just hoping to be asked. He should look at trades differently than he did before. There is an argument to be made that a short term loan like Green IS part of a long term strategy because playoff experience is invaluable. He's doing what he should be doing, looking at all possibilities, short, mid and long term, and then making decisions on the fly as to what is the best move at the time.

 

Personally, I'm all for an AJ Green trade if he is healthy. He helps in innumerable ways. 

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The comparison of Benjamin and Green is just off. Green is miles ahead in skill level and mentality. Green may actually be injured to the point he's not worth the risk. But my gut tells me he just doesn't want to risk further injury for a franchise going nowhere. It's up to the front office to do their homework. And they would have to make Green feel like if he performs he has a future as a Bill.  If healthy he's worth a 3rd and more. 

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Contrary to some, I think AJ is the missing piece....the James Lofton if you will. 

 This team has a chance to contend for a Super Bowl this year. I think you have to recognize that as management and go all in. Without giving up something ridiculous of course.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't forget, and I love AJ Green when healthy, but there are two differences: 1) Benjamin had his 5th year locked up 2) Amari Cooper was active playing when he was traded, not injured with uncertain timeline to return as AJ Green is at present. 

And I don't think Beane was so satisfied by what he gave up for that third, that he's likely to go to the well again for a player with those key differences.

 

 

 

This is a different definition long-view notion than I believe Beane holds (or most people).  Money is meaningful because it can roll over into subsequent seasons, when the Bills will need it to extend and sign their developing players or target new FA.  And draft picks are meaningful because they can be used to target new contributors.  I don't think Beane views giving up a draft pick in the first 3 rounds for an injured, elderly WR on (at best) an 11 game rental as a "relatively low-cost opportunity" and I don't think Daboll and McBeane see any WR is the key piece that will help us win this season.

 

No WR will help us if Josh Allen doesn't take care of 1) himself and 2) the ball.  But Daboll believes he can scheme enough guys open that if JA does take care of himself and the ball, we can hang with anyone.

Myself personally, just having a WR with a catching radius, size ,and skill of A J Green alone will help improve Allens TD to INT ratio IMO. I also think having an elite target to boost an already good WR corp will have Allen scrambling/ running less, making big plays more in the passing game in my humble opinion.

 

A J Green has been on the playing field over 86% of his career averaging over 70 receptions and just under 8 TD's a season. 

 

With all due respect Hapless.

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2 hours ago, Figster said:

On the field A J Green is elite. Elite doesn't come cheap.


A.J. was elite for about four seasons. None of those seasons was after 2015. He's been banged up half the time since, and is on the wrong side of 30. I would cringe if we gave up too much for him. "Elite" doesn't come cheap, but "once elite" and "oft injured" moves the needle closer, IMO.

Does everyone realize we are trying to beat the Pats?

The Giants showed the world (twice) how to beat Brady, and that doesn't involve getting into a shootout with him. You have to keep him on his a$$, and while our defense has been amazing, that's its one deficiency.

Does our secondary need Tom Brady throwing to A J Green?

It doesn't matter who Tom Brady is throwing to if he has all day to do it. He has proven that countless times. IMO, Let NE do what it's going to do -- let us do what we're going to do -- and let's see what happens. We shouldn't sign someone just because we're afraid NE will. To me, a team that does that is already beaten.

A healthy A J Green in the playoffs can make the difference IMO.

It didn't the only time AJ and Brady met in the playoffs. NE held him to 88 yards (0 TDs) and the Pats easily won.

Just something to think about fellas.

Definitely! I'm all for it at the right price. :beer:

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AJ may not be the player he once was but he still would be a huge addition to this team. He becomes the number one and a guy teams need to take into account. That will help all aspects of the Bills offense. Not to mention the Bills getting him would stop another contender from getting him. The Pats could be a spot but him going to OAK, BALT, IND, LAC could help one of those teams edge the Bills out of a playoff spot. 

I get him for a 2nd or less and am ok as a one year rental. This year has all the workings of being a year that any team can go deep into the playoffs. 

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1 hour ago, Golden Goat said:


A.J. was elite for about four seasons. None of those seasons was after 2015. He's been banged up half the time since, and is on the wrong side of 30. I would cringe if we gave up too much for him. "Elite" doesn't come cheap, but "once elite" and "oft injured" moves the needle closer, IMO.

Does everyone realize we are trying to beat the Pats?

The Giants showed the world (twice) how to beat Brady, and that doesn't involve getting into a shootout with him. You have to keep him on his a$$, and while our defense has been amazing, that's its one deficiency.

Does our secondary need Tom Brady throwing to A J Green?

It doesn't matter who Tom Brady is throwing to if he has all day to do it. He has proven that countless times. IMO, Let NE do what it's going to do -- let us do what we're going to do -- and let's see what happens. We shouldn't sign someone just because we're afraid NE will. To me, a team that does that is already beaten.

A healthy A J Green in the playoffs can make the difference IMO.

It didn't the only time AJ and Brady met in the playoffs. NE held him to 88 yards (0 TDs) and the Pats easily won.

Just something to think about fellas.

Definitely! I'm all for it at the right price. :beer:

Lets just take look at your 1st and probably most compelling comment (provided its correct). Last season Green scored 6 TD's in 9 games. If you do the math at that rate A J Green scores 10 TD's by seasons end. Average during his elite period (according to you) is 9 TD per season. A J Green averaged 5 receptions per game his 1st 5 seasons. Average in Greens 2018 season per game 5 receptions. Yards average during Greens so called Elite period 15. Yards average in the 2018 season 15.1.  

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14 minutes ago, Figster said:

Lets just take look at your 1st and probably most compelling comment (provided its correct). Last season Green scored 6 TD's in 9 games. If you do the math at that rate A J Green scores 10 TD's by seasons end. Average during his elite period (according to you) is 9 TD per season. A J Green averaged 5 receptions per game his 1st 5 seasons. Average in Greens 2018 season per game 5 receptions. Yards average during Greens so called Elite period 15. Yards average in the 2018 season 15.1.  


So after all that, your argument is about average yards -- and what might have been IF he were healthy? Okay.
 

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, that's one of the underlying debate themes on this board, right?  McD and Beane are acting as though, in fact, you can slow build it through draft picks and undervalued and OK vet FAs who fit the culture.  They wagered that they could gut the roster of talented but expensive players and bring in enough new talent quickly enough to stay within the "shelf life" the Pegulas will allow them.

 

Others here disagree with their strategy and think it won't work.

 

I don't think McDermott and Beane feel we're in a place where a "big move" will get them over the top.  I think Daboll believes in group play at WR rather than in "one true star", and I'm not sure he's wrong - one true star who is always open absolutely makes a difference, but when that one star is taken away by other teams or lands on IR, then what?  I think he wants his developing QB to learn to see the field, progress in his reads, and take whatever the D offers.

 

Myself, I think that the "big move" the Bills need is really between Josh Allen's ears - will the message he got while in concussion protocol, and seemed to demonstrate on the field in Tenn, hold good?  If we do need a "big move" on the roster, I would argue it is more likely to be a piece on our still-unsettled OL and an elite pass-rusher or LB than to be an elite WR.  I have confidence that McBeane see the need for the pass rusher, I'm as yet uncertain they value OL quite as highly as they should, despite the focus on it this off-season.

 

An elite pass rusher would be nice, but the defense is doing more than enough atm. The team won't sustain the winning with the how the offense is currently performing. 

 

Josh simply limiting the turnovers and playing conservative ball isnt enough either, IMO. A playmaker at wide out who is open when he isnt is just what a young QB needs to help him develop. 

 

We can agree to disagree, but I struggle to see how a 3rd(at most) and some $$$(which they have plenty of) jeopardizes their future at all..... there is very, very little risk in the trade and a lot of reward. 

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I know we're in it for the long haul - but on paper, next season's path to the playoffs is significantly more difficult than this year's.  Whether it's AJ Green or Trent Williams or some other missing piece, Id make a move to improve this season's chance as much as possible.

 

2020
at San Francisco
at Raiders
at Denver
at Jets

at Miami
at New England

at Cardinals

at AFC South (1st or 2nd - Texans, Colts?)

Kansas City

LA Chargers
LA Rams

Seahawks

Jets
Miami
New England
AFC North (1st or 2nd place (Ravens, Browns?)
 

 

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7 minutes ago, Golden Goat said:


So after all that, your argument is about average yards -- and what might have been IF he were healthy? Okay.
 

Its true, hard to be elite on the sidelines.

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4 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Beane has never had this job before. He's making it up as he goes along, in concert with McDermott. They have a plan and theories but neither of them has been in charge like this before. Beane doesn't have a trend yet, and it's surely a different mindset and strategy once you have reached a point of being in the middle of a playoff hunt than being on the cusp just hoping to be asked. He should look at trades differently than he did before. There is an argument to be made that a short term loan like Green IS part of a long term strategy because playoff experience is invaluable. He's doing what he should be doing, looking at all possibilities, short, mid and long term, and then making decisions on the fly as to what is the best move at the time.

 

Personally, I'm all for an AJ Green trade if he is healthy. He helps in innumerable ways. 

 

Expectations have been amped up with the 4-1 start and defense playing the way it has.  To Dave Mc's point-you expect them now to be 11-5 and win a playoff game given their start and (to date) overall AFC weakness. 

 

A playoff appearance in 2017 bought them some time in their roster deconstruction process.  Now it's time to hasten the rebuild with a deal for a WR to improve this currently pedestrian offense. 

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An older, currently and oft-injured half-season rental. 
 

sure do it, but not for more than a couple of 4th round picks. Paying anything more than that seems pretty foolish.

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25 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

FWIW... (could just be coach speak)

 

 

 

Doesn't sound like A J Green is getting traded anytime soon. 

 

So much for that...

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