Jump to content

Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage


Recommended Posts

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby.  Get yer T-shirts ready.

 

 

 

Even Garrappoollloo was mentioned.  They even brought up Mahomes just to collectively agree that he was out of the running since 2019 was his breakout year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

All three.

 

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby.  Get yer T-shirts ready.

 

image.thumb.png.f939aeb247ff419b3fd8eac23a24578a.png

 

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Even Garrappoollloo was mentioned.  They even brought up Mahomes just to collectively agree that he was out of the running since 2019 was his breakout year.

Good then. I hope this ticks Allen off and adds to the chip he carries on his shoulder. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Short and intermediate accuracy

As soon as the Bills drafted Allen, they went to work with attempting to fine-tune his footwork and mechanics. They likely believed that some of Allen’s accuracy concerns from Wyoming had to do with inconsistent footwork. They aimed to correct it by having him throw from an uneven base on short throws to the flat, either on swing passes or designed wide receiver screens. They also looked to change how Allen opened up his hip and stepped to the left when throwing the ball to the left sideline. Allen’s legs were working against him on those throws. Correcting that would decrease the likelihood of the throw losing some velocity and improve the ball placement.

 

A video clip emerged from training camp in 2018 showing Allen missing badly on one short throw, and it became the source of mockery. He was a work in progress in that area, and his chart from his rookie season signaled that.

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_20

After careful work on these areas in 2018 and through a full offseason in 2019, Allen’s ball placement and overall accuracy improved. It certainly helped that the Bills added John Brown, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox to the mix. The results showed in a significant way, with a quarterback rating improvement of at least 10 points in nine out of the 12 zones. The biggest growth area? The left sideline from 11 to 20 yards, which rose from 38.1 to 114.5 and was the exact area where the Bills looked for him to improve with his footwork.

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ALL529264_20

The key is there is room for more growth, which should be an encouraging sign for the Bills.

 

...

What are fair expectations in Year 3?

...The processing is key to Allen’s consistency and the ability to make a big jump in 2020. The Bills will need to make an essential decision on Allen soon — whether to give him top-flight money as a starting quarterback in the NFL or to solve the position by other means. A jump in production, a continuation of improvements from 2019 and growth in some weaker areas should be the standard for Allen this coming season.

 

Until then, it’s unclear why many are already writing off the 23-year-old. One of his best attributes is the selfless willingness to adapt. If there is an evident deficiency in Allen’s game, he works to remove it and turn the improvement into a habit. Allen has reinvented himself from one week to the next multiple times already throughout his young career. The legitimate strides he’s made with his time to a decision, short-to-intermediate accuracy, cutting down on turnover-worthy plays and not leaving the pocket prematurely should all breed optimism that he can improve in other critical areas. Because of that amount of growth in such a short time, it’s challenging to define Allen’s ceiling in the NFL. And because of such a rapid improvement, it would be foolish to believe he’s a finished product before his third season.

  • Like (+1) 3
  • Awesome! (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


No issues with where Allen is listed—Murray is my only beef.

 

He had decent numbers. Remember though he’s throwing to a HOFer and Christian Kirk. Plus their run game ranked 3rd in the NFL in YPC. 

Fitz is still a fine player, but summing him up as putting out HoF level play at this point in his career is a little much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Fitz is still a fine player, but summing him up as putting out HoF level play at this point in his career is a little much.

 

Agreed, and I like Fitz. He's at the "nothing great is expected of me; anything good I do will be praise-worthy" stage of the Fitzpatrick Cycle.

He had a better year from a QB-quality standpoint in 2015 with the Jets.  He did a praiseworthy  job with a bad cast this year in Miami, but HoF?

Pfft.

22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Short and intermediate accuracy

As soon as the Bills drafted Allen, they went to work with attempting to fine-tune his footwork and mechanics. They likely believed that some of Allen’s accuracy concerns from Wyoming had to do with inconsistent footwork. They aimed to correct it by having him throw from an uneven base on short throws to the flat, either on swing passes or designed wide receiver screens. They also looked to change how Allen opened up his hip and stepped to the left when throwing the ball to the left sideline. Allen’s legs were working against him on those throws. Correcting that would decrease the likelihood of the throw losing some velocity and improve the ball placement.

 

A video clip emerged from training camp in 2018 showing Allen missing badly on one short throw, and it became the source of mockery. He was a work in progress in that area, and his chart from his rookie season signaled that.

 

Just a note, Transplant, that this was put up as its own thread a couple hours ago.

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a note, Transplant, that this was put up as its own thread a couple hours ago.

 

My bad. 

 

I actually looked through the first couple pages at titles and didn't click on the threads.  I see you posted it... guess I just saw the fact that it was a review of his first 2 years and didn't make the obvious connection, even though I should have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

they state right in the write up its not a projection into the future. just how they performed in 2019....i'd wager a large amount he comes wayyyy back down to earth this season wherever he plays. But the fact remains he was really good down the stretch for them. 

 

5 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

It's not how I'd do it, to each their own.

 

I actually think it's exactly the right way to go about it.  It'd be significantly more subjective if you just ranked QBs "overall."  I mean, I know most people wouldn't look at QBs in the NFL today and say "Brady is the 14th best QB in the NFL" or "Rivers is the 22nd best" based on what they've done over their careers, but just because Brady is the GOAT doesn't mean you automatically put him at #1 every year.  Or Rivers in the top 10 every year.

 

And I actually think Brady at 14 might be a bit high.

 

And yes, I realize some would retort that you don't put Brady at #1 because of how much his age is showing.  But then the counter would be was it age or was it losing Gronk and not having any true #1 WRs he had chemistry with?  

 

And I personally do think it's age, but you see how subjective this can get if you try to rank QBs based on talent and/or potential rather than a year by year production.

 

I think this is the right approach on the part of NFL.com... and Allen as the 18th best (an above average, but not great or even really good) QB in a season where over 50 QBs took a relatively significant amount of snaps sounds about right..

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

My bad. 

 

I actually looked through the first couple pages at titles and didn't click on the threads.  I see you posted it... guess I just saw the fact that it was a review of his first 2 years and didn't make the obvious connection, even though I should have.

 

Eh, I probably titled it poorly.  If you have better ideas, hit me in PM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/11/2020 at 11:41 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Wow.

 

This thread has turned into a crazy analytics argument.

 

Some very simple facts:

 

1) Josh Allen's upgraded OL still needs to improve because Allen was tied for having the least amount of pocket time in the NFL at 2.3 seconds per dropback. His legs keep him (and the team) alive, but our OL (particularly RG and G) needs to give him a clean pocket to throw from... because in general when he has a clean pocket, he's accurate.

 

2) If all our WRs actually caught the balls the NFL tracked as drops (these are not passes that you can put on Allen) his completion percentage would be 65.5%.

 

3) If you also discount Allen's spikes (these are counted as incomplete passes but obviously aren't and are typically good or at least neutral plays by the QB) his completion percentage would be 66.2%.

 

4) If you also discount throwaways, for which Allen got a lot of heat for NOT doing in his rookie year,  his completion percentage would be 71.6%.

 

5) If you want to keep spikes and throwaways and drops because all QBs have them, fine. What if we made his drop percentage equal to the WRs in Atlanta, who were the best in the NFL at not dropping the football? Now Allen's completion percentage is 64.9%.

 

Would that be considered "good" for our 2nd year still-raw QB?

 

6) "Giving us the most surehanded WRs in the NFL is unfair!" you say... Fine, how about our WRs are as capable of catching as Lamar Jackson's were in Baltimore, who had the 7th lowest drop percentage in the NFL. If that were the case, Allen's completion percentage would be 62%.

 

Is that a promising improvement for him?

 

7) Or what if we were just in the middle of the pack... like let's say our drop percentage was Washington Redskin level, instead. Okay, now his completion percentage is 60.7%.

 

Would those so critical of Allen here view that with optimistic eyes?

 

 

 

Surrounding Allen with talent is very simply the first and most obvious answer. It started last offseason but the OL clearly needs time to gel, Dawson Knox needs time with a jugs machine, and Allen needs another #1 WR.

 

And yes, Allen needs to work on his game this offseason.

 

But anyone who watched Allen this year and thought there wasn't some wildly promising improvement in his passing from his rookie year is also probably someone who doesn't think kittens are cute.

 

 

 

 

Some here have a profound inability to see and understand why and what occurs to create a stat. And that said stat is a small bit of what actually happened, damn good post by the way ?

 

Go Bills!!!

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...