Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I did it by team because I've yet to see any data that says who the QB was for every team when a pass was dropped.

 

Matt Barkley threw roughly 10% of the passes we attempted this year. Also we had 26 drops as per stats.com which is the source I used.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

5 drops for Barkley 

31 drops for Allen

 

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Our team's completion percentage was still like 4th or 5th worst in the NFL including the drops.

 

I assume most of that had to do with Allen, but I also don't know if any of our receivers dropped passes from Barkley. I assume they did.

 

They did. 5 of them.

 

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Anyway you slice it, Allen was near the bottom of the NFL in completion and adjusted completion percentage. Whether he's last, fifth last, or anywhere in the bottom ten, that's not good.

 

Not good enough long term.

 

But considering where he was last year, it's big progress. And there would be absolutely no reason to believe he couldn't make another big step with a full offseason the way he did year 1 to year 2.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

The most relevant stat to the accuracy discussion that PFR does is “on target throwing percentage”...Allen is 21st.

 

Which is what you can actually see if you watch the games.

 

I don't know what exactly @jrober38 will do when he sees that Allen's on target percentage is better than the likes of Brady, Goff, and Wentz.

[oldmanfan]

52 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ll tell them to up their expectations to competent.

Good

[transplantbillsfan]

For those struggling to find 30+ yard passes from Allen

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/highlight-josh-allen-hits-dawson-knox-for-33-yard-completion

7:15 mark

 

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Which is what you can actually see if you watch the games.

 

I don't know what exactly @jrober38 will do when he sees that Allen's on target percentage is better than the likes of Brady, Goff, and Wentz.

Yes, Brady Goff and Wentz who were all universally lauded this year for their stellar play.

[thebandit27]

3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Yes, Brady Goff and Wentz who were all universally lauded this year for their stellar play.

I think the more pertinent point is that claiming that Allen is “dead last” in terms of accuracy isn’t true. In fact he’s not even bottom 10. 
 

I’m not saying that we should be happy with 21st, but there’s a relative chasm between the claim and reality.

[Jrb1979]

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

I don't get why people have to use childish terms like homers.  I'm sorry I'm a fan of the Buffalo Bills and root for their QB.  Which team are you a fan of?

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ll tell them to up their expectations to competent.

Wait, am I reading this right? Are you implying that Allen is incompetent?

 

That has to be me misreading it. It just HAS to be.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

All of the better defenses, or just some of them?

 

I ask because Denver and Dallas finished as the 9th and 11th scoring defenses (and both were top 9 at the time they faced Buffalo) and he looked good against them.

 

Nobody disagrees that he’s got a ways to go, but I will never understand why some folks think that anyone that recognizes what he does well consistently and sees signs that are very encouraging in his development somehow doesn’t also acknowledge that he still needs to improve.

[BananaSquad]

10 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

Rookie TE, Rookie RB, 2 under 6’ starting wideouts.... did pretty good for what he was working with in year 2. 

[Big Gun]

Josh is 5th in the league in how far the ball travels in the air towards it's target, he doesn't just settle for dump offs and he is not a checkdown charlie, which I like. Imagine if he did twice a game for 5 more yards his comp % would be well over 60% and the haters would be silent, but whatever. He's trying to get the ball down the field, he's aggressive, good and getting better. He's going to be a stud.

 

 

Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA ▼	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
1	Matthew Stafford	DET	31	QB	8	8	187	291	2499	3097	10.6	1609	8.6	5.5	890	4.8
2	Jameis Winston	TAM	25	QB	16	16	380	626	5109	6500	10.4	3249	8.6	5.2	1860	4.9
3	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	31	QB	12	10	201	286	2742	2715	9.5	1494	7.4	5.2	1248	6.2
4	Russell Wilson*	SEA	31	QB	16	16	341	516	4110	4836	9.4	2402	7.0	4.7	1708	5.0
5	Josh Allen	BUF	23	QB	16	16	271	461	3089	4271	9.3	1758	6.5	3.8	1331	4.9
6	Dak Prescott	DAL	26	QB	16	16	388	596	4902	5510	9.2	2984	7.7	5.0	1918	4.9
7	Deshaun Watson*	HOU	24	QB	15	15	333	495	3852	4400	8.9	2170	6.5	4.4	1682	5.1
8	Aaron Rodgers*	GNB	36	QB	16	16	353	569	4002	5005	8.8	1993	5.6	3.5	2009	5.7
9	Ryan Fitzpatrick	MIA	37	QB	15	13	311	502	3529	4442	8.8	2252	7.2	4.5	1277	4.1
10	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	24	QB	14	14	319	484	4031	4273	8.8	2076	6.5	4.3	1955	6.1
11	Lamar Jackson*+	BAL	22	QB	15	15	265	401	3127	3545	8.8	1767	6.7	4.4	1360	5.1
12	Philip Rivers	LAC	38	QB	16	16	390	591	4615	5031	8.5	2430	6.2	4.1	2185	5.6
13	Baker Mayfield	CLE	24	QB	16	16	317	534	3827	4471	8.4	1992	6.3	3.7	1835	5.8
14	Sam Darnold	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	273	441	3024	3619	8.2	1554	5.7	3.5	1470	5.4
15	Matt Ryan	ATL	34	QB	15	15	408	616	4466	5007	8.1	2816	6.9	4.6	1650	4.0
16	Kyle Allen	CAR	23	QB	13	12	303	489	3322	3938	8.1	1641	5.4	3.4	1681	5.5
17	Carson Wentz	PHI	27	QB	16	16	388	607	4039	4878	8.0	2235	5.8	3.7	1804	4.6
18	Daniel Jones	NYG	22	QB	13	12	284	459	3027	3673	8.0	1619	5.7	3.5	1408	5.0
19	Mason Rudolph	PIT	24	QB	10	8	176	283	1765	2261	8.0	841	4.8	3.0	924	5.3
20	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	25	QB	15	15	326	516	3138	4102	7.9	1729	5.3	3.4	1409	4.3
21	Jacoby Brissett	IND	27	QB	15	15	272	447	2942	3521	7.9	1437	5.3	3.2	1505	5.5
22	Jared Goff	LAR	25	QB	16	16	394	626	4638	4825	7.7	2388	6.1	3.8	2250	5.7
23	Tom Brady	NWE	42	QB	16	16	373	613	4057	4633	7.6	2233	6.0	3.6	1824	4.9
24	Kirk Cousins	MIN	31	QB	15	15	307	444	3603	3395	7.6	1818	5.9	4.1	1785	5.8
25	Andy Dalton	CIN	32	QB	13	13	314	528	3494	3969	7.5	1834	5.8	3.5	1660	5.3
26	Kyler Murray	ARI	22	QB	16	16	349	542	3722	3987	7.4	1870	5.4	3.5	1852	5.3
27	Gardner Minshew	JAX	23	QB	14	12	285	470	3271	3328	7.1	1687	5.9	3.6	1584	5.6
28	Case Keenum	WAS	31	QB	10	8	160	247	1707	1700	6.9	907	5.7	3.7	800	5.0
29	Joe Flacco	DEN	34	QB	8	8	171	262	1822	1750	6.7	915	5.4	3.5	907	5.3
30	Derek Carr	OAK	28	QB	16	16	361	513	4054	3364	6.6	1932	5.4	3.8	2122	5.9
31	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	28	QB	16	16	329	476	3978	3088	6.5	1806	5.5	3.8	2172	6.6
32	Drew Brees*	NOR	40	QB	11	11	281	378	2979	2443	6.5	1495	5.3	4.0	1484	5.3

[Bangarang]

Sometimes I get sad but when I do I think about this thread going on for the next 7 months and then I become happy again.

[Mango]

17 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

If Allen can audible he either can't read the defense or there isn't a scheme to beat it.

 

How do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots? Either smash-mouth with dynamic run plays or developing hot reads to the blitz.

 

The problem is either Daboll's schemes don't have an answer, Allen doesn't like doing audibles, or Allen can't mentally figure out when to call the right play.

 

Even the smurf WRs are fine. Most of Manning's WRs through the years were 6' or shorter. As noted many times on the All-22 WRs were open but he wasn't going for the underneath stuff if he waited a bit, he wanted to throw it deeper.

 

I still say we need a better TE and 1 bigger WR.

 

Yes, a lot of plays fall on a QB. I don't think with modern offenses they can't or don't coach how to get out of situations after studying 1,000's of hours of tape. The adjustment comes from the QB.

 

Which we know not to be true because that is basically the entire idea behind the Erhardt-Perkins. Run 100 different plays out of one formation based on what the defense is showing you. 

 

That does not mean, i do not get frustrated with BD's play calling. I do. I have spend many a Sunday pulling out my hair. 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Mango

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

 

I could just be a *****' atavist here but I think what should concern all of us (including you and those you imply are "not homers" thus more realistic in some way? prove it!) is how badly our OL played against the better defenses in the league this year.  And I see a direct connection to how Allen played in those games.  Oh, yeah, that's an "excuse", because other QB play so well when they're under heavy pressure.  We improved our OL greatly, but I see it as improved from "craptastic" to "mostly functional". 

 

 

 

Just one example, look at the hellacious huge sack/intentional grounding that Allen took in the Houston game.  Matt Parrino calls it.  They rushed 3.  THREE.  That's not to absolve Allen completely.  Protections will break down and he has to have it stacked in his head pre-snap that this is a situation where he MUST throw it away and where he's gonna go.  And for all I know, he had something to do with a wrong protection call.  But we had 7 protecting.  They rushed 3.  THREE.   That was a problem all 2nd half, which leads me to think that Crennell saw something he exploited successfully.

 

 

I don't know if it's scheme, calls, or execution (likely some combination of all 3) but we have GOT to get it together on pass pro because it's not cutting the mustard.  If the Bills want Allen to be their solution long term, and up his play, asking TE to block pro-bowl caliber DEs has GOT to stop.  It leads to QBs being corkscrewed into the ground, strip sacks and other poor offensive outcomes.  Likewise, we simply COULD not cope with the diamond front and delayed blitzes the Ravens used against us.  As a Cover1 article correctly diagnoses:

Baltimore wasn’t afraid of, with the game on the line, repeatedly sending the house at Allen, and Buffalo had no answers for it. The offensive line can’t hold their blocks, the wide receivers aren’t getting open quickly enough or winning in contested catch situations, and Allen continues to miss open receivers deep and struggles fighting for his life against instantaneous pressure. He’s taking too many hits and the offense is stagnating against this strategy, the same used by Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ defense in week four.

 

Let's look at this assessment:

1) the offensive line can't hold their blocks (and sometimes TE or RB asked to block just totally whiff - or the protection scheme is totally wrong for what's coming)

2) the WR aren't getting open quickly enough

3) the WR aren't winning in contested catch situations

4) Allen misses open receivers

 

One of those four things is on Allen - and even there, I would bet Vegas money that Allen hits open receivers deep in practice , so maybe 1) is related to 4) on deep routes that take time to develop.  Yet people here sit back, sip a soda and arbitrarily opine it's "50% on Allen"  SMDH. 

 

Again, I'll be clear - I'm not absolving Allen of any part of this, there are plays where he has time and misses, or has a receiver open for an easy completion and doesn't take the shot. 

 

But none of us know the details of  what's going on with the protection calls, the protection schemes, the play design (read sequence) etc, so putting some arbitrary percentage of blame on Allen seems totally whacked to me. 

 

I do know this - universally, if you want to make a good QB look like crap, give him crap protection against a top D.

[teef]

42 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

How do your posts manage to have such a horrible smell to them?

[Stank_Nasty]

anyone have any good recipes worth sharing?

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

anyone have any good recipes worth sharing?

OMG yes. I made this on NYE:

https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/257030/chef-johns-hot-sloppy-joe-dip/
 

Not as a dip; just as a sloppy Joe slider recipe. It was spectacular.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

OMG yes. I made this on NYE:

https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/257030/chef-johns-hot-sloppy-joe-dip/
 

Not as a dip; just as a sloppy Joe slider recipe. It was spectacular.

"For me this checks all the boxes for a hot party dip. It's relatively cheap and easy to make, but maybe more importantly, it's great hot, warm, or room temp. And it's also incredibly versatile."

 

now THAT... looks like damn good dip! cheap and easy. versatile.... all the reasons I married my wife really.

 

i'm gonna have to give it a go.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[CincyBillsFan]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I could just be a *****' atavist here but I think what should concern all of us (including you and those you imply are "not homers" thus more realistic in some way? prove it!) is how badly our OL played against the better defenses in the league this year.  And I see a direct connection to how Allen played in those games.  Oh, yeah, that's an "excuse", because other QB play so well when they're under heavy pressure.  We improved our OL greatly, but I see it as improved from "craptastic" to "mostly functional". 

 

 

 

Just one example, look at the hellacious huge sack/intentional grounding that Allen took in the Houston game.  Matt Parrino calls it.  They rushed 3.  THREE.  That's not to absolve Allen completely.  Protections will break down and he has to have it stacked in his head pre-snap that this is a situation where he MUST throw it away and where he's gonna go.  And for all I know, he had something to do with a wrong protection call.  But we had 7 protecting.  They rushed 3.  THREE.   That was a problem all 2nd half, which leads me to think that Crennell saw something he exploited successfully.

 

 

I don't know if it's scheme, calls, or execution (likely some combination of all 3) but we have GOT to get it together on pass pro because it's not cutting the mustard.  If the Bills want Allen to be their solution long term, and up his play, asking TE to block pro-bowl caliber DEs has GOT to stop.  It leads to QBs being corkscrewed into the ground, strip sacks and other poor offensive outcomes.  Likewise, we simply COULD not cope with the diamond front and delayed blitzes the Ravens used against us.  As a Cover1 article correctly diagnoses:

Baltimore wasn’t afraid of, with the game on the line, repeatedly sending the house at Allen, and Buffalo had no answers for it. The offensive line can’t hold their blocks, the wide receivers aren’t getting open quickly enough or winning in contested catch situations, and Allen continues to miss open receivers deep and struggles fighting for his life against instantaneous pressure. He’s taking too many hits and the offense is stagnating against this strategy, the same used by Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ defense in week four.

 

Let's look at this assessment:

1) the offensive line can't hold their blocks (and sometimes TE or RB asked to block just totally whiff - or the protection scheme is totally wrong for what's coming)

2) the WR aren't getting open quickly enough

3) the WR aren't winning in contested catch situations

4) Allen misses open receivers

 

One of those four things is on Allen - and even there, I would bet Vegas money that Allen hits open receivers deep in practice , so maybe 1) is related to 4) on deep routes that take time to develop.  Yet people here sit back, sip a soda and arbitrarily opine it's "50% on Allen"  SMDH. 

 

Again, I'll be clear - I'm not absolving Allen of any part of this, there are plays where he has time and misses, or has a receiver open for an easy completion and doesn't take the shot. 

 

But none of us know the details of  what's going on with the protection calls, the protection schemes, the play design (read sequence) etc, so putting some arbitrary percentage of blame on Allen seems totally whacked to me. 

 

I do know this - universally, if you want to make a good QB look like crap, give him crap protection against a top D.

 

 

And when 3 rushers can generate that much pressure that quickly it's a disaster considering that the Texans had EIGHT men in coverage as a result of only rushing 3.

 

As an aside, I listen to Cowherd a lot and over the last month he frequently calls out Allen as an example of the next wave of super QB's.  This is a distinct change from when he was calling Allen a bust.  My guess is that Cowherd has watched some tape and talked to some QB experts who studied Allen and he's changed his mind about him as a result. 

 

From what I've seen Allen does more with less then almost any other QB in the NFL.  It's that simple.  I predict that when the Bills surround Allen with players that lift the Bills into the top half of NFL offenses, Allen will perform as a top 10 QB.  If we ever get the talent on offense to reach the top quarter, Allen will be a top 3 QB.