Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

I’m talking mostly of Knox, who clearly looked to run a few times before he had possession. A couple of those were huge plays in a close game. Maybe you missed that, or maybe it doesn’t play into your narrative. 

 

 

There are a couple bad plays by everybody that could have been huge plays in close games. That’s the NFL man.

[oldmanfan]

If we assume that 60% is the magic, holy grail of completion percentage that Allen must hit, here’s some math:

 

Number of attempts:  461

Number of completions:  271

Number if additional completions needed for 60%:  4 (rounds off to 60%)

 

So this entire obsession with his completion percentage comes down to 4 plays over the season.  So 4 better passes, 4 less drops, 4 less throwaways.  However, this angst comes down to 4 plays, or 0.25 plays a game.

 

Just food for thought.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

See this does nothing.  Watson was an absolute animal in college.  Matt Ryan carried a crappy BC team.  

 

Watson was an absolute animal in college.  I agree.  He was.  He was also surrounded by extreme NFL talent at all positions.

 

Matt Ryan joined a D1 school that won 8 or 9 games in each of its previous 3 seasons before he started along with 3 consecutive bowl games.

 

So you can say, by the same logic, that Allen carried the Wyoming Cowboys just as much considering the year before Allen got his season as a starter, the team won 2 games and had losing records the previous 3 seasons.

 

6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

would an elite receiver help? I would like to think so.  But a smart betting man won’t ever put money on Allen becoming a passer like those 2 because he never has been.  That’s been my main issue with the Allen pick.  We are hoping he becomes a better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  And while I have serious doubts he can get to the Ryan and Watson level as a passer, he can still be a very effective player if we play to his strengths.  

 

Allen doesn't have to pass like Ryan because he plays a different style of QB.

 

I don't think Allen will ever be in the upper tier of the NFL as far as completion percentage.  He doesn't have to be.  And not being there doesn't mean he can't still become an Elite QB.

 

But these failures in logic some people are having is getting frustrating.  

 

We all want Allen to get better.  But some of us are wildly encouraged by the huge step we saw from year 1 to year 2 in the NFL and we think it bodes, really, really well for his future.

 

But the GM needs to help with that by giving him an Elite weapon or 2.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is a point I’ve been trying to make.  The need a catchable pass stat because every drop isn’t the same.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Drew Brees throws a more catchable ball than Josh Allen.

 

Yes, every drop is the same. It's a pass an NFL WR should have caught.

 

It's really that simple.

 

You guys are really trying to twist the narrative to somehow pin these drops on Allen and it's just ridiculous.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The odd thing about this is that is two best deep passes (in terms of accuracy) later in the season were both to John Brown in the Denver and NE games. In the Denver game, the ball was right on the money, but the important context is that he was throwing directly into a ~30 mph wind. In the NE game, he got hit hard as he threw it. In almost every instance, such passes end up short. Neither did in this case. 

 

That Dawson Knox deep ball was a dime, too.

[LSHMEAB]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Where do the 30 mph winds come into it?

 

Many deep passes I've seen, including successful deep passes, involve the QB getting hit just after he threw it.  I'd like to understand the source of the info that "in almost every instance, such passes end up short"

What if there's merit to "the less he thinks, the better he is." 

 

If you're getting hit, you have no time to think. You just throw. If you're facing 30 MPH winds, you're not expected to make a great throw, so also, less thought/more throw.

 

As someone who generally relies purely on data and not "eyeball tests," it would be hypocritical to pretend like this is some kind of absolute. Nothing more than a hypothesis based on observation.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[reddogblitz]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Frankly this sounds like a bit of agenda, especially this last.  In case you don't listen to Daboll and etc press conference, there's a lot of need for the WR/QB being on the same page in his offense - the WR decides what route variation to run based upon how he reads the DB, and the QB has to read both the DB and the WR's body language.  Even so a certain number of throws will be in a different place than the WR expects and he has to adjust.   That's just being a pro WR.

 

Beasley and Brown are experienced NFL WR who have had several NFL QB throwing to them, and that last is just bonkers.

 

No agenda.  Just an observation. I read over and over Josh's comp % is low due to drops.  Ok.  Why does he have so many 2 years in a row with different pass catchers?  The theory I read over and over it was the receivers.  Maybe Josh contributes somehow?    Not saying it's Josh's fault, but maybe it's both?  The passes and pass catchers.  Seems like a fair question. 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ve watched the Bills WR’s competently catch sideline passes all year. They dropped 7 more passes on the season compared to league average. Those 7 drops negatively affected Josh’s performance, but he needs to be better.

 

Can you direct our attention to 2 of those passes where a WR had to do the "toe tap" or "toe drag" this year? I can't remember any.

 

Yes, 7 more passes dropped than the league average.

 

7 more catches and Allen's completion percentage is 60.3%.

 

Yes Allen needs to get better moving forward, but look backward and pause for a minute and comprehend that where Allen is in year 2 is the kind of really significant progress that can give us all hope, and if he makes a similar step from year 2 to year 3, there will be genuine reason to start the Franchise QB talk and work to potentially lock him up long term next offseason.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I’m talking mostly of Knox, who clearly looked to run a few times before he had possession. A couple of those were huge plays in a close game. Maybe you missed that, or maybe it doesn’t play into your narrative. 

 

 

 

Yes, there were multiple Knox drops in critical situations in critical areas of the field that sucked.

 

If he can be more consistent catching the ball, he can be a BEAST for us for years.

[transplantbillsfan]

19 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

No agenda.  Just an observation. I read over and over Josh's comp % is low due to drops.  Ok.  Why does he have so many 2 years in a row with different pass catchers?  The theory I read over and over it was the receivers.  Maybe Josh contributes somehow?    Not saying it's Josh's fault, but maybe it's both?  The passes and pass catchers.  Seems like a fair question. 

 

Well, our biggest culprit was Dawson Knox by far. Raw rookie Tight End who didn't catch many passes at all in college.

 

His drops make complete sense to me, which is why I'm so excited moving forward.

 

Knox is the one who really tips the scale.

 

The rest of the offensive weapons may just suffer from being a rung higher on the totem pole than they should be; Brown isn't a true #1 NFL WR... but he's a fantastic #2.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Allen's accuracy is the least of his problems IMO. Processing and awareness are still his biggest issues. Both improved this season. Hopefully he improves again in year 3 of the same offense. 

 

I doubt Allen will ever have a decent completion % because of the way he plays. He'll probably always hover between 55% - 60%.

 

Allen is a work in progress. Just keep improving, that's about all we can ask. 

 

 

[Mango]

I think the issue some are having in regards to completion percentage and drops, is that if you were to adjust to average drops, Allen is still ranking too close to the bottom of the totem poll in relation to his peers. 

 

In 2019, 60-61% after being adjusted, is still too far away from the league average. Not to mention, we shouldn’t adjust Allen’s numbers and not the rest of the league. I think it’s a fair point without being ridiculed as having an agenda. 

 

That number will trend much closer to average if Josh can eliminate the clunkers. He has to eliminate the NE x2, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philly, Cleveland, and Houston. That’s 7 of 17 games trending poorly between 46-53%. Those aren’t games that are 1 catch from being average, those are games we were ineffective at throwing the football almost entirely.

 

There are 10 games where he performed at or above average. We should be happy about that. 7 games are well below average, we can also be very concerned. Those feelings don’t need to be mutually exclusive. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Allen's accuracy is the least of his problems IMO. Processing and awareness are still his biggest issues. Both improved this season. Hopefully he improves again in year 3 of the same offense. 

 

I doubt Allen will ever have a decent completion % because of the way he plays. He'll probably always hover between 55% - 60%.

 

Allen is a work in progress. Just keep improving, that's about all we can ask. 

 

 

 

Funny... if Allen's weapons only had even a moderate amount of drops instead of the substantial amount they had this year, he would have already been above your criteria.

 

You're probably wrong.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Funny... if Allen's weapons only had even a moderate amount of drops instead of the substantial amount they had this year, he would have already been above your criteria.

 

You're probably wrong.

If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good.

 

His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If Allen had an average strength of schedule his completion % is lower. His completion % is what it is. Why focus on something that will never be very good? At his best he'll probably be a 62% passer, which isn't good.

 

His career average will likely be somewhere between 55-60. Hopefully closer to 60. It's just not something I care too much about. He's not going to be someone praised for his accuracy.

 

 

Why make an assumption like this?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

39 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Why make an assumption like this?

What assumption? 55-60%? He's not an accurate passer and the way he plays doesn't allow for a lot of easy completions.

 

It's basically the same area Cam Newton is in. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What assumption? 55-60%? He's not an accurate passer and the way he plays doesn't allow for a lot of easy completions.

 

It's basically the same area Cam Newton is in. 

Why assume he can’t get better?  Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again.  Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases.  

 

I refer you to the math I did above.  People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something.  For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season.  It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained.  

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

What assumption? 55-60%? He's not an accurate passer and the way he plays doesn't allow for a lot of easy completions.

 

It's basically the same area Cam Newton is in. 

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

Yeah. Helped raise his career average to 59%.

[BuffaloHokie13]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Didn’t Cam go for 67% 2 seasons ago?

He did! And even with that 14 game season his career % is 59.8. Much like you believe (and I agree) that gross yards are largely a product of attempts, I see completion percentage as a function of the offensive system in place. In 2017, Mike Shula was the OC. In 2018, it was Norv Turner.