transplantbillsfan Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 This obsession with the 300 yard game is ridiculous. Allen has had 3 games where he's had 300+ yards combined rushing and receiving. The Bills were 1-2 in those games. Yards don't correlate with winning. Completion % and efficiency does for Allen though and I would bet it does league-wide for all QBs. In the 11 games Allen WON when he started: 62.1% completion % 26.6 passing attempts per game 7.5 YPA 24 total TDs 9 total turnovers In the 8 games Allen LOST when he started: 50.6% completion % 31.9 passing attempts per game 5.7 YPA 8 total TDs 15 total turnovers Truth is that in large part the way Allen goes is the way team success goes. Earlier I said Allen was 11-8 in games he start. His record in games he started AND finished is 11-6... so yes, I excluded the Texans game last year and Pats game this year. Losing him in both those games hurt the team. Do you 300 yard fanboys not care about team success? Naturally as Allen gets more comfortable, we hope his completion percentage goes up even in those Ls, which will naturally increase his yards and maybe it'll bring him into the 300+ yard category. I suspect we'll see one or two 300+ yard passing games before the season is over. But I don't know if that will be a good indicator for the team because it will mean we're playing from behind. Earlier this season Allen was "on pace" for 300+ yards in a couple of our Ws because he had about 200 yards passing by the half. But then--just in case you aren't paying attention--our playcalling turns strange and conservative and the entire offense tends to tighten up in the 3rd quarter. Allen is progressing and he's playing an important role helping to facilitate these Wins. Enjoy watching the team success and the ability of our coaches to develop Allen they way THEY want to. If you think he should be developed in another manner, go to One Bills Drive and put in an application for Head Coach. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Man if nothing else I want Allen to keep playing well because every week these guys just can't rail on him it feels like a little bit more of them dies on the inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 7 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: All these good QBs seem to be able to throw for 300 in a loss except for Allen. Do you find that interesting? Not in the least. No one has beaten us so badly that Allen got to spend the 4th quarter padding his stats against backups playing a prevent defense. Check out Jackson's stat line against KC & Cleveland. Some serious "garbage" time passing yards there. And before you say the Eagles game that wasn't a blow out until late in the 4th quarter. But hey if you're impressed with efforts like Gardner Manshews 309 yard game in the Jags loss to Houston last Sunday, the game in which the Jags only scored 3 points, more power to you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrb1979 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 55 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Earlier this season Allen was "on pace" for 300+ yards in a couple of our Ws because he had about 200 yards passing by the half. But then--just in case you aren't paying attention--our playcalling turns strange and conservative and the entire offense tends to tighten up in the 3rd quarter. IMO it will always be that way when they have a lead and it's not cause of Daboll. Til McDermott changes philosophy into modern day NFL Allen will be a game manager. Just once I would love to the Bills offense keep their foot on the gas for the whole game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, Warcodered said: Man if nothing else I want Allen to keep playing well because every week these guys just can't rail on him it feels like a little bit more of them dies on the inside. The bias that these two clowns show is pretty amazing. Makes me think PFF is pretty crappy. They keep saying Allen made more inaccurate throws. Really? Could they tell me which ones? Funny how Allen's fumbles which he's only lost 3, are somehow much worse then say Danial Jones fumbles that I think he's lost 8 of - in 2 fewer games then Allen! Or how about the other Allen in Carolina who fumbles quite a bit when he's sacked? I wish these guys would stop the confirmation bias in their weekly Allen reviews and actually tell me something valuable in how Allen is progressing. I know Allen needs a lot of work and there's plenty of room for improvement. But these tools appear to take it personally that he's playing in the NFL. It's like an affront to their metrics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nester Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I wonder why we don't use the RPO, you would think it would work well with a young QB who can move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said: The 300 yd game "The Two Bills Drive" standard. Last year it was the 60% standard. John Brown is averaging a healthy 75 yds per game as our number 1. Beasley is averaging roughly 45, and Knox is close to 20 yds per game. It's obvious, for Allen to get close to 300, Brown needs to have a great game. If Brown gets 100 yds, where are the other 200 yds coming from? If Brown gets 150 yds, where is the other 150 yds coming from? Even on a day of expected output, Beasley should net around 7 catches for probably around 70 yds (10 yd average for what he does). On a good day, Knox should net close to 50 yds. That's still not 300 yds. So for Allen to get 300 yd games, we need contribution from our RBs like we did last week and another WR not named Brown or Beasley. Last week, with the help of Singletary, Allen had 100 yds in the first QTR. But then we attempted on awful screen later in the game and hardly threw the ball the rest of the game. I think both Singletary and McKenzie combined can help make up the difference. I hope the 300 comes on like 4 short passes to Singletary who takes it to the house each time. Four yards in the air, 80 on the ground. Blow people's minds... HE GOT THE 300, BUT HE ONLY THREW THE BALL 25 YARDS IN THE AIR!! ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 hours ago, WideNine said: Who knows? There are those points in a thread where it makes a left turn at reason and ends up where this has gone. Agree to disagree and move on. I just basically look at the magical 300 yd/game mantra as just another moving back of the goal posts folks set regarding Allen's development, and that just tells me that if the argument regarding Allen's lack of development has to regularly be amended to move the bar higher, then logically the trend of his development as an NFL QB is going in the right direction. I am OK with that. Im deeply concerned that with record, completion percentage and ints moving off the list, if he throws for 300 yds next, we are going to have to revert to yards per carry as the glaring weakness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideNine Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Im deeply concerned that with record, completion percentage and ints moving off the list, if he throws for 300 yds next, we are going to have to revert to yards per carry as the glaring weakness Don't lose hope, there is the fumbles on the designed runs... In all seriousness, of course there are things Allen needs to work on like ball security on runs. And I put that on the coaching staff to correct those things. I am satisfied seeing progress and watching a player grow into a role, some want the fully-baked results immediately. I am ok with game plans where Allen is forced to leverage the team around him and is not expected or asked to win by himself. IMO that would have ruined him and all the god-given raw talent he was gifted with. As raw as he was coming into the league I am satisfied with the approach the Bills are taking to develop Allen. Some folks are not, and some have gradually warmed to the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: Not in the least. No one has beaten us so badly that Allen got to spend the 4th quarter padding his stats against backups playing a prevent defense. Check out Jackson's stat line against KC & Cleveland. Some serious "garbage" time passing yards there. And before you say the Eagles game that wasn't a blow out until late in the 4th quarter. But hey if you're impressed with efforts like Gardner Manshews 309 yard game in the Jags loss to Houston last Sunday, the game in which the Jags only scored 3 points, more power to you. Nah, I was extremely impressed with his 349 yard performance against Carolina. I wish our QB could have a game like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 (edited) A lot of QBs are hitting 300 yards because of YAC. How many times have you watched a football game where dude throws a screen pass and it goes for 10, 20, 30 yards. How many times have you seen a 5 or 10 yard pass turn into 20 or 30 yards? Those are the guys getting 300 yards passing. Not because they are launching rockets all over the field. Most of the time our receivers catch a ball, I am surprised they go for 5 yards. Our best guys is Beasley right now that averages less than 4.48 yac. Top 10 is almost 9 yards. He ranks like 60 something. Edited November 6, 2019 by Scott7975 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPar_v2 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Out of the ‘18 class, it’s pretty much Allen and Lamar out there winning games so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ not your 2 prototypical 300+ yard passers. Glad I was pretty much dead wrong about Allen coming out Of the draft. This year I just wanted to see the mistakes/turnovers decrease and they have over the past 4 games so I am fresh out of complaints right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I don’t think 300 yards is some magic number Allen needs to hit in order to be a franchise QB. Let’s be real, we’ve seen plenty of scrubs hit that milestone. I just want to see Allen play lights out for an entire game. So far him and the offense have had stretches of great play. Give me 60 minutes where Allen bullies the opposing defense and has his way with them. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 7 hours ago, Warcodered said: Man if nothing else I want Allen to keep playing well because every week these guys just can't rail on him it feels like a little bit more of them dies on the inside. These guys are such morons. I don't know who the guy on the left is (is that Sam Monson?), but he has ALWAYS belittled Allen. If folks want to know why this thread exists, it's because of dudes like that who find it absolutely painful to even say that his stats look okay. Unreal. I know we have those guys on this message board, but they're all over the national media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 hours ago, Scott7975 said: A lot of QBs are hitting 300 yards because of YAC. How many times have you watched a football game where dude throws a screen pass and it goes for 10, 20, 30 yards. How many times have you seen a 5 or 10 yard pass turn into 20 or 30 yards? Those are the guys getting 300 yards passing. Not because they are launching rockets all over the field. Most of the time our receivers catch a ball, I am surprised they go for 5 yards. Our best guys is Beasley right now that averages less than 4.48 yac. Top 10 is almost 9 yards. He ranks like 60 something. Bingo. I can count on one hand the big YAC plays that Allen has had: last week the 49 yard screen to Motor (first successful screen of the season - chew on that fact); The Knox rumble against Cincinnati; The Beasley big pass play against the Giants; McKenzie's big gain against TN and Motors 28 yard TD against the eagles. A perfect example of what you're saying happened Monday night. Danial Jones had 210 yards passing in over 40 attempts but 90 yards came on just 2 passes: 67 yards came on a screen to Barkley thrown behind the LOS and another 23 yards came on one of the best catches made by a WR this season - the one handed grab by Tate of a ball thrown way behind him. Explosive, talented skill players make a big difference to a QB's stat line. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: Bingo. I can count on one hand the big YAC plays that Allen has had: last week the 49 yard screen to Motor (first successful screen of the season - chew on that fact); The Knox rumble against Cincinnati; The Beasley big pass play against the Giants; McKenzie's big gain against TN and Motors 28 yard TD against the eagles. A perfect example of what you're saying happened Monday night. Danial Jones had 210 yards passing in over 40 attempts but 90 yards came on just 2 passes: 67 yards came on a screen to Barkley thrown behind the LOS and another 23 yards came on one of the best catches made by a WR this season - the one handed grab by Tate of a ball thrown way behind him. Explosive, talented skill players make a big difference to a QB's stat line. I actually really like YAC as one of the metrics for how a QB is doing delivery the ball. I don’t think lack of YAC is a good defense for JA, rather an indictment. Current YAC leaders 1. Rodgers 2. Brady 3. Goff 4. Rivers 5. Mahomes The only players Josh beats are back ups, starters who have missed a bunch of time (ie Brees, Tannehill, etc) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyBillsFan Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, Mango said: I actually really like YAC as one of the metrics for how a QB is doing delivery the ball. I don’t think lack of YAC is a good defense for JA, rather an indictment. Current YAC leaders 1. Rodgers 2. Brady 3. Goff 4. Rivers 5. Mahomes The only players Josh beats are back ups, starters who have missed a bunch of time (ie Brees, Tannehill, etc) We'll have to agree to disagree then. YAC is more influenced by skill player talent, O-line mobility and play design/call then by QB. Before Motors big screen play the Bills had attempted 16 screen passes gaining a total of 34 yards. I've seen NOTHING about Allen's ball placement this season that leads me to think it is costing us YAC. What I see are receivers who don't get a lot of separation; Receivers who don't break a lot of tackles and a team that hasn't been able to execute any type of screen pass on a consistent basis. This is what drives YAC IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: We'll have to agree to disagree then. YAC is more influenced by skill player talent, O-line mobility and play design/call then by QB. Before Motors big screen play the Bills had attempted 16 screen passes gaining a total of 34 yards. I've seen NOTHING about Allen's ball placement this season that leads me to think it is costing us YAC. What I see are receivers who don't get a lot of separation; Receivers who don't break a lot of tackles and a team that hasn't been able to execute any type of screen pass on a consistent basis. This is what drives YAC IMO. YAC has more to do with accuracy and timing then anything else. I'de list them in that order, #1 accuracy, #2 timing, #3 run after catch ability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/5/2019 at 11:59 PM, JoPar_v2 said: Out of the ‘18 class, it’s pretty much Allen and Lamar out there winning games so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ not your 2 prototypical 300+ yard passers. Glad I was pretty much dead wrong about Allen coming out Of the draft. This year I just wanted to see the mistakes/turnovers decrease and they have over the past 4 games so I am fresh out of complaints right now. It IS pretty interesting that the two that were dogged the most, currently have the best record. So goes sports media, I guess... And just caught Greg Cosell's comments on Jackson and his accuracy (spoiler: it's the system), also interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 On 11/6/2019 at 8:44 AM, Mango said: I actually really like YAC as one of the metrics for how a QB is doing delivery the ball. I don’t think lack of YAC is a good defense for JA, rather an indictment. Current YAC leaders 1. Rodgers 2. Brady 3. Goff 4. Rivers 5. Mahomes The only players Josh beats are back ups, starters who have missed a bunch of time (ie Brees, Tannehill, etc) Your argument is incredibly flawed as we have nowhere near the skill talent those teams do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts