When 3-0 Isn't Really 3-0

[theRalph]

There is a prevailing school of thought that places NE over the Bills based on their respective 3-0 records. That school maintains that, although the combined records of each teams' opponents are comparable (0-9 for NE, 1-8 for the Bills), the Patriots have been far more dominant in their games than the Bills. Film and stats support this. But the eyeball test does not. They've both played the Jets, but the Jet team NE faced was missing both Darnold and Mosley. I would venture that the Bengals are stronger than the Steelers based on the QB situation...Big Ben's elbow was non-contact, so it likely hampered him in the opener the week prior to the injury. And any team, including the Giants, has to be considered to be stronger than Miami. I'd give the overall edge to the Bill's opponents.

 

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. Of course that can be explained away by saying NE is superior...hard to argue this. But it is easy to argue that the Bills in their three wins have had to climb more mountains than NE. So we have NE, the heavy weight champion that has easily beaten three weak foes and the Bills, an upstart challenger that has had to fight for inches in 2 of 3 wins. The Buffalo Bills have been in far nastier fights than the Patriots. There is, I would estimate, a bit of an edge to the Bills that NE doesn't have, based on what it took to arrive at 3-0. Not all 3-0 records are created equal.

 

I believe the Bills will be something of a shock to the Patriots. Certainly the Bills are the best team, by far, that NE has faced this season. Buffalo may well win this game. If so, will the national media laud the Bills, or explain it away by saying NE was short-handed and a bit injured? 

 

There is an old adage that says "when we suddenly determine the Bills are good, it will in retrospect be revealed they were already good. The opposite applies also, perhaps for NE. Stat-of-the-Day: In the 18 seasons of Bill and Tom show, the Patriots have gone 4-0 only four times.

[folz]

A lot of good points OP. The only thing I might slightly disagree with is that we could be a shock or may surprise the Pats. Belichick never let's his team underestimate an opponent. And we are 3-0, so I don't think they'll take us lightly or not know the caliber of team we are becoming. But, I do think you're right about us being more battle-tested at this point in the season. And we need every advantage we can get.

 

And if we do beat the Pats, sure there will be a number of Pats excusers as to why we won. But I think the majority of the media would give props to McDermott and the Bills.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

They have dominated their opponents from the opening whistle.  Pittsburgh is a better team than Cincinnati.  The Bills have struggled to move the ball for long stretches in all three games.  The Patriots have not.  It's quite fair to say they are a better 3-0 team.  

But none of that means anything come Sunday.  If anyone thinks the Bills can't win, then they have no understanding of history or the game of NFL football.  

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

They have dominated their opponents from the opening whistle.  Pittsburgh is a better team than Cincinnati.  The Bills have struggled to move the ball for long stretches in all three games.  The Patriots have not.  It's quite fair to say they are a better 3-0 team.  

But none of that means anything come Sunday.  If anyone thinks the Bills can't win, then they have no understanding of history or the game of NFL football.  

 

Well said, and how they got there matters not. In the end, 3-0 = 3-0. Time will tell. 

[WNY]

Excellent post! I don’t chime in much, but I concur with your sentiment. 

 

Go Bills!

[Mikie2times]

I don't disagree with pressure reps this season, but I dismiss the angle on the Bills being more prepared for a pressure situation. If Brady has the ball and a TD wins I don't see Buffalo stopping it. That's even with a very good defense. Perhaps the positives I do see in this that coincide with your thoughts is unlike previous years if afforded enough time I do think Allen can counter. It's a matter of keeping it a one possession game and winning the last 2 drives. That's what I hate about the Patriots. You can play even or within one score or even with a nice lead and they still, at the very worst, always seem to be in position for one last drive. In that scenario about the only time that drive gets stopped is with a lot of pressure on Brady.   

Edited September 26, 2019 by KzooMike

[Augie]

36 minutes ago, theRalph said:

There is a prevailing school of thought that places NE over the Bills based on their respective 3-0 records. That school maintains that, although the combined records of each teams' opponents are comparable (0-9 for NE, 1-8 for the Bills), the Patriots have been far more dominant in their games than the Bills. Film and stats support this. But the eyeball test does not. They've both played the Jets, but the Jet team NE faced was missing both Darnold and Mosley. I would venture that the Bengals are stronger than the Steelers based on the QB situation...Big Ben's elbow was non-contact, so it likely hampered him in the opener the week prior to the injury. And any team, including the Giants, has to be considered to be stronger than Miami. I'd give the overall edge to the Bill's opponents.

 

 Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. Of course that can be explained away by saying NE is superior...hard to argue this. But it is easy to argue that the Bills in their three wins have had to climb more mountains than NE. So we have NE, the heavy weight champion that has easily beaten three weak foes and the Bills, an upstart challenger that has had to fight for inches in 2 of 3 wins. The Buffalo Bills have been in far nastier fights than the Patriots. There is, I would estimate, a bit of an edge to the Bills that NE doesn't have, based on what it took to arrive at 3-0. Not all 3-0 records are created equal.

 

I believe the Bills will be something of a shock to the Patriots. Certainly the Bills are the best team, by far, that NE has faced this season. Buffalo may well win this game. If so, will the national media laud the Bills, or explain it away by saying NE was short-handed and a bit injured? 

 

There is an old adage that says "when we suddenly determine the Bills are good, it will in retrospect be revealed they were already good. The opposite applies also, perhaps for NE. Stat-of-the-Day: In the 18 seasons of Bill and Tom show, the Patriots have gone 4-0 only four times.

 

I love the post, but  I have a “here’s the thing” about your “here’s the thing” to play devil’s advocate. In the last 3 games? Sure, they have dominated. We were fortunate to pull out some wins. That doesn’t make me feel any better.

 

As far as facing adversity? The Falcons wish your argument held up better. They are a consistent playoff team, and an occasional slow starter. They play in Super Bowls. I think this game is just part of their process on how to get back to another SB. 

 

I don’t think they see us as any more than the week 4 opponent. The same way we should be looking at them. A season is a lifetime. 

[Happy]

13 minutes ago, Augie said:

I don’t think they see us as any more than the week 4 opponent. The same way we should be looking at them. A season is a lifetime. 

 

Belichick in his pressure said good things, gave the Bills props, etc.  At the end of the day, I doubt he's too worried about the Bills overall, and certainly not scared or losing sleep over the game.

[Jauronimo]

The Patriots haven't faced any adversity THIS SEASON.  They are still a veteran team with the best prepared coach in the history of football.  I can't say with certainty how the Pats will respond if things start going south for them on Sunday but I KNOW Belichick will adjust and he will adjust fast.  

 

Biggest question is will Daboll, Frazier, and McDermott make the necessary adjustments if their game plan isn't working or when the Pats counter?

[Jared]

10 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

The Patriots haven't faced any adversity THIS SEASON.

 

Down 3 out of 5 starting OL at the 3 most important OL spots, have barely NFL quality TEs, lost their FB for an unknown period of time.  Edelman has banged up ribs, apparently Gordon keeps getting his finger dislocated.  I don't think you can say NO adversity. 

 

It is true that they haven't played any elite opponents yet, but frankly other than the Chiefs, there don't appear to be any really elite teams out there in the league.  Every team has flaws.  The Fish are a dumpster fire, the Jets are... I don't know, a recycling bin fire?

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Jared said:

 

Down 3 out of 5 starting OL at the 3 most important OL spots, have barely NFL quality TEs, lost their FB for an unknown period of time.  Edelman has banged up ribs, apparently Gordon keeps getting his finger dislocated.  I don't think you can say NO adversity. 

 

It is true that they haven't played any elite opponents yet, but frankly other than the Chiefs, there don't appear to be any really elite teams out there in the league.  Every team has flaws.  The Fish are a dumpster fire, the Jets are... I don't know, a recycling bin fire?

Great point.

 

Also the AB drama.  Chung drama.  Gordon's last minute reinstatement.  There's definitely been no shortage drama and the injuries are racking up so that counts.

 

They have yet to show any signs of this adversity due to weak opponents and their own professionalism.  They have not faced any in game adversity or stress.  I'm hoping both of these  items change on Sunday.

[LABILLBACKER]

I love the fact that the mantra this year is each week is a new season 0-0. Never look ahead. Never underestimate your opponent. Belichick is not the greatest NFL coach for no reason. He's flooding the Bills and their fans with compliments. As Parcels once said "you are what your record says you are". I know beating NE Sunday will be daunting but NOT impossible! I think like a great prize fight we go toe to toe. 

[JoPar_v2]

“The EYEBALL test does not”..... 

.....whose eyeballs? Yours!? Cuz holy **** u need a new prescription.

 

i love this “NE hasn’t faced any adversity so far”...in 3 games, after playing in the playoffs for the last umpteen years and the last 4 superbowls THEY havent faced adversity. They ain’t used to it. Wow yo. I’ve seen some very dumb **** here but this is some DUMB ****. I knew the homer bs would get bad after we won against the bengals but DAMN.

Edited September 26, 2019 by JoPar_v2

[Success]

When this now legendary Pats team started dominating the league in 2001, it was pretty quiet.  The weren’t plowing through opppnents in lopsided contests.  They were scrappy overachievers, finding ways to eek out wins.

 

It’s easy to look back now on those early years and say, of course, it was Brady and BB.      But no one knew that at the time.  No one saw it coming.

 

I feel like this Bills team under Allen could have that same dynamic.  Not really taken too seriously, but finding ways to win and in the process, building something pretty memorable.

[DefenseWins]

The debate really is more about the value of having Belichick/Brady vs McD/Allen IMHO. I won't be disappointed no matter what the final score is this weekend. Allen is still learning on the job while Brady is a multiple Superbowl winning QB, maybe the best QB all time. Assuming NE and KC are the two best teams in the AFC, how good are the Bills? We may get some clues to this question this weekend. This season has a long ways to go and injuries are gonna be important as the season goes along. Are the Bills better than say Baltimore? I think we should know more about where the Bills stand in the AFC by the end of this season. They are certainly in fine shape cap wise for next season and with another solid draft like this years draft could be in a position to challenge KC/NE next season. Assuming the Bills make the playoffs which is still a big assumption at this point how will they fare against these two teams in the playoffs assuming they do get that far? Let's just enjoy the ride...

Edited September 26, 2019 by DefenseWins

[iinii]

2 hours ago, theRalph said:

There is a prevailing school of thought that places NE over the Bills based on their respective 3-0 records. That school maintains that, although the combined records of each teams' opponents are comparable (0-9 for NE, 1-8 for the Bills), the Patriots have been far more dominant in their games than the Bills. Film and stats support this. But the eyeball test does not. They've both played the Jets, but the Jet team NE faced was missing both Darnold and Mosley. I would venture that the Bengals are stronger than the Steelers based on the QB situation...Big Ben's elbow was non-contact, so it likely hampered him in the opener the week prior to the injury. And any team, including the Giants, has to be considered to be stronger than Miami. I'd give the overall edge to the Bill's opponents.

 

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. Of course that can be explained away by saying NE is superior...hard to argue this. But it is easy to argue that the Bills in their three wins have had to climb more mountains than NE. So we have NE, the heavy weight champion that has easily beaten three weak foes and the Bills, an upstart challenger that has had to fight for inches in 2 of 3 wins. The Buffalo Bills have been in far nastier fights than the Patriots. There is, I would estimate, a bit of an edge to the Bills that NE doesn't have, based on what it took to arrive at 3-0. Not all 3-0 records are created equal.

 

I believe the Bills will be something of a shock to the Patriots. Certainly the Bills are the best team, by far, that NE has faced this season. Buffalo may well win this game. If so, will the national media laud the Bills, or explain it away by saying NE was short-handed and a bit injured? 

 

There is an old adage that says "when we suddenly determine the Bills are good, it will in retrospect be revealed they were already good. The opposite applies also, perhaps for NE. Stat-of-the-Day: In the 18 seasons of Bill and Tom show, the Patriots have gone 4-0 only four times.

How many times has this been repackaged?

[Yav]

1 hour ago, JoPar_v2 said:

“The EYEBALL test does not”..... 

.....whose eyeballs? Yours!? Cuz holy **** u need a new prescription.

 

i love this “NE hasn’t faced any adversity so far”...in 3 games, after playing in the playoffs for the last umpteen years and the last 4 superbowls THEY havent faced adversity. They ain’t used to it. Wow yo. I’ve seen some very dumb **** here but this is some DUMB ****. I knew the homer bs would get bad after we won against the bengals but DAMN.

Just to add on, NE still has Brady at QB and BB as the coach. 
 

Have to agree with Jo, NE is still NE and the D is playing great.
 

The Bills struggled in games they should have dominated and NE dominated the games they should have. 

 

Sunday we will know what this version of the Bills are made of.

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, theRalph said:

There is a prevailing school of thought that places NE over the Bills based on their respective 3-0 records. That school maintains that, although the combined records of each teams' opponents are comparable (0-9 for NE, 1-8 for the Bills), the Patriots have been far more dominant in their games than the Bills. Film and stats support this. But the eyeball test does not. They've both played the Jets, but the Jet team NE faced was missing both Darnold and Mosley (Conversely, the Bills didn't start scoring until after Mosley was injured, and we easily could've lost had the Jets kicker not missed 2 kicks. On top of that, the Jets scored 0 points off of 4 turnovers, the Patriots wouldn't do that). I would venture that the Bengals are stronger than the Steelers based on the QB situation...Big Ben's elbow was non-contact, so it likely hampered him in the opener the week prior to the injury (You can say it "likely" hampered him, but Big Ben has played dinged up most of his career, yet still started & played the entire game against NE & still got blown out by 30 points...The Bills lost the lead at the end & went behind by 3 to the Bengals before having to rally to escape with a win. Again, Pats victory far more impressive in every facet of the game) And any team, including the Giants, has to be considered to be stronger than Miami. I'd give the overall edge to the Bill's opponents (Yes, everyone is stronger than Miami, though the Giants are still nothing to be proud of, especially how we let them back in the game the 2nd half).

 

Here's the thing: NE has not yet faced any real adversity (except for the Stidham pick-six). The Bills have. Of course that can be explained away by saying NE is superior...hard to argue this. But it is easy to argue that the Bills in their three wins have had to climb more mountains than NE (All true, NE has played better & therefore hasn't had to face adversity like us). So we have NE, the heavy weight champion that has easily beaten three weak foes and the Bills, an upstart challenger that has had to fight for inches in 2 of 3 wins (...against 3 weak foes too). The Buffalo Bills have been in far nastier fights than the Patriots. There is, I would estimate, a bit of an edge to the Bills that NE doesn't have, based on what it took to arrive at 3-0 (To think the Patriots aren't battle hardened or more diciplined than the Bills solely because of how this season has started is a little silly, the Pats have a tendency to start seasons SLOW, yet here they are crusinig, and with Belichick & Brady, you know after 2 decades they are more than ready after having faced plenty of adversity). Not all 3-0 records are created equal. 

 

I believe the Bills will be something of a shock to the Patriots (This is one area where I think you're 100% wrong. We won't shock, surprise, or catch off guard the Patriots with Belichick & Brady together. That happened once in 2003, and never again since, regardless of coaching staff or talent level). Certainly the Bills are the best team, by far, that NE has faced this season. Buffalo may well win this game. If so, will the national media laud the Bills, or explain it away by saying NE was short-handed and a bit injured? (We will definitely skyrocket in power rankings, regardless of people pointing out them being short handed. Unlike us, there's an expectation the Pats will find a way to win no matter how injured or banged up they are. Pats fans might make excuses, but Brady & Belichick won't, and the talking heads will hop on the Bills bandwagon) 

 

There is an old adage that says "when we suddenly determine the Bills are good, it will in retrospect be revealed they were already good. The opposite applies also, perhaps for NE. Stat-of-the-Day: In the 18 seasons of Bill and Tom show, the Patriots have gone 4-0 only four times.

 

You make some valid points, but the opposite could be said in a lot of places. Having a non-biased viewpoint takes a lot of effort, but I'm trying to be reasonable & logical here.

Aside from what I said in bold, you also have the Pats beating the Jets by 16, scoring 30 points in 3 quarters. It took the Bills until 3:48 left in the 3rd to score 3. 

On top of that, the Pats offense hasn't disappeared for 2-3 quarters per game and have played competently the entire year. The Bills on the other hand disappear for long stretches, putting all the work on the defense to keep us alive while giving them awful field position to work with.

 

And while Miami is definitely the worst, the Giants aren't much better. In fact, while Miami's defense ranks 32nd overall (in both yards allowed & points), the Giants rank 31st (again, in both yards allowed & points). 

Every year people say "new year, new team," and try to disregard the Patriots' history & experience. The key guys that make the team year after year and have won 6 freaking Super Bowls (that's still sickening to type out) are battle tested, always prepared, never take an off day, don't underestimate any opponents, and fight until the end (just look at the Falcons blowout Super Bowl, yet the Pats never thought they were done). 

On top of that, Brady is 30-2 when starting & finishing the game against the Bills, with only one of those games being a dominant win back in 2003. They do not take plays off, they rarely make mistakes, and they're the masters at adjusting to what their opponents are doing. THAT is a KEY thing that could determine the outcome of this game. Think about how the Bills have come out of half time, and how each opponent has adjusted to us better than how we adjusted to them....

And that's people like Adam Gase, Pat Shurmur and Zac Taylor, think of how Belichick will adjust to what we do. When the Pats went 16-0 in the regular season, there were only 4 opponents that finished within 1 score of winning/tying the game. That doesn't mean they were weak because they rarely faced adversity, it just meant they were that dominant. 

It's like the Chiefs...they'll face good teams, but then Patrick Mahomes will put up nearly 300 yards & 4 TD's (with 2 others being called back due to holding calls) in one quarter & make the game look like a flat blowout. They'll likely win most every game the rest of this season, adversity or not. Doesn't mean they're not great, only that nobody is close to their caliber to put up a fight. 

I'm not saying the Bills aren't going to be able to put up a fight, only that putting yourself in a hole, then having to fix your own screw ups hardly makes you a better team because you faced self-inflicted adversity. The Pats don't shoot themselves in the foot like the Bills do, and spinning that as a positive for us is pretty generous.

The Bills CAN win. But what you laid out can just as easily be laid out in the exact opposite way in favor of the Patriots, and is more likely to come true in their case due to the mountains of evidence showing that's exactly the case. New year, new team, yeah... but they were new teams those new years within that 30-3 stretch of Brady dominance too.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Always entertaining to read the lengths Bills fans will go to rationalize our position in the NFL.

 

If only it was that easy.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

I love your enthusiasm.  I like what the Bills are doing, I think we are poised to have a consistently competitive championship level team.  But it is Brady and Belichick, the best ever at their respective jobs.  Doesn’t matter if they have injuries on their team, adversity, they are just better.  Look at what they’re doing to teams this year.  As much as I love my Bills, and knowing that in any given Sunday odd things can happen, I anticipate a Pats victory.  And will likely do so as long as B and B are with them.