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Josh Allen - Draft night retrospect


BringBackFergy

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I had no horse in the QB race that year, but I feel like any time a player is labeled a "project"... it's a huge red flag.  I mean think about it, labeling someone a project basically means that they aren't there yet.  You never know if they will actually get there or not. 

 

I'm glad the Bills drafted Allen, but if I was in management I would not have had the balls to draft him knowing that he was a project.  Props to Beane for following through on what he felt was the right QB choice.  In retrospect, I think he made a great choice

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I was firmly on the "Anyone but Allen" train. I was scarred from JP Losman and EJ Manuel. I didn't like the idea of a kid with "prototypical size" and a "cannon arm" but who, by most accounts, couldn't actually play football very well. I bought into the whole analytics movement against Allen hook, line, and sinker.

The moment Allen became a Bill, my attitude changed. Why? Because I don't root against players on my own favorite team. Unlike some people, I'd rather be wrong about a prospect I don't like and watch him succeed for my team than be right about him and watch him fail. So I said "let's give him a chance", and I watched all the college highlights I could find, and I talked myself into the notion that he had a chance to be very good.

It's early, of course, but it sure seems like I was wrong. It seems like ALL the anti-Allen folks were wrong. At the very least, Allen's FLOOR seems to be "average NFL quarterback", which is ALREADY way better than most people thought he'd be. The Allen haters said he'd be an outright bust, and he certainly isn't that. At worst, he's a replacement level player. But he's only 15 games into his career, and I think he'll wind up being much better than that.

Edited by Logic
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I hated the pick when it was made and facepalmed it at a draft party. I wanted Rosen ?at that point as he seemed “ safe” and Allen was a big risk. I thought of Mahomes the previous year as a boom or bust pick, and Allen seemed like that with a lot less boom. He’s definitely impressed me thus far and has probably already exceeded what I thought he might be capable of. He’s not there yet, but he seems headed in that direction. The arrow is pointing up. 

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4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

When we win or things go well, the clueless kool aid crowd becomes emboldened and they start all manner of post-game threads talking about Josh Allen being better than Mahomes, us going to the Super Bowl this year,

 

If you can show me 3 examples of the above I will donate $100 to the charity of your choice.

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I tend not to make snap judgments.  During the pre-draft process I thought Allen's skill set was intriguing, but that he was likely a project.  When the Bills drafted him, I felt things were going to be interesting, but I did not pretend to know whether or not Josh Allen would be a successful starting QB.

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3 hours ago, berg1029 said:

I had no horse in the QB race that year, but I feel like any time a player is labeled a "project"... it's a huge red flag.  I mean think about it, labeling someone a project basically means that they aren't there yet.  You never know if they will actually get there or not. 

 

I'm glad the Bills drafted Allen, but if I was in management I would not have had the balls to draft him knowing that he was a project.  Props to Beane for following through on what he felt was the right QB choice.  In retrospect, I think he made a great choice

 

Same here and used those identical words.  I left it all in Beane's hands.  So far it looks like he could of done a lot worse.

Josh Allen is on a pretty good trajectory so far, really hoping it continues.

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9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not sure about Jackson yet. There was a time when he was my #1 QB in the draft. I love a mobile QB. I don't understand why so many people are resistant to that. A good QB with elite mobility is impossible to defend. I saw Jackson's next level mobility and a good deep ball and I saw a successful NFL QB. Then he took the wonderlic and I lost all interest in him. You cant make it as a dumb QB in the NFL these days. I've watched a lot of his plays this year and something still seems a little off. It doesn't feel sustainable. But maybe he'll prove me wrong.

 

 

Was my take on Lamar as well.

 

Mobility is important and there have been QBs who have excellent mobility and ability to throw on the run, but they usually have a short run at success in the league.

 

Roman will get the most out of him, and maybe he does shed the "gimmick" label and over time can pickup more than a read option play book.

 

Time will tell, but he has played well for the Ravens and I will not take that from him.

 

I did not want Mayfield, but was on the fence regarding other top 3. Each had some positives and some things to worry about. 

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Wouldn't shock me if Josh and YES, LJAX, end up having more success than the top 3 QB's taken. They both appear to be proving detractors wrong.

 

I HATED the pick. I figured we'd already be looking for a new QB. I generally trust the numbers/analytics. I was slightly discouraged by that third quarter, but this kid is not going to "fail." I've seen enough to have full confidence in that. Will he remain mired in the middle of the pack and continue to have long stretches of head scratching play or will he minimize the bad and maximize the good? That will ultimately determine whether he moves into the upper echelon.

 

Zero doubt about his work ethic, character, and most importantly, mettle in late game situations. That's huge to me personally. There are certain guys you can just tell are rattled when the lights are on. Allen appears completely unfazed by the moment and even seems to enjoy it. Can't overstate the importance of that(in my book anyways).

 

He just MIGHT be the outlier of all outliers. But I'm not gonna put the cart before the horse considering our history with QB's. The kid "seems" different.

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4 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Wouldn't shock me if Josh and YES, LJAX, end up having more success than the top 3 QB's taken. They both appear to be proving detractors wrong.

 

I HATED the pick. I figured we'd already be looking for a new QB. I generally trust the numbers/analytics. I was slightly discouraged by that third quarter, but this kid is not going to "fail." I've seen enough to have full confidence in that. Will he remain mired in the middle of the pack and continue to have long stretches of head scratching play or will he minimize the bad and maximize the good? That will ultimately determine whether he moves into the upper echelon.

 

Zero doubt about his work ethic, character, and most importantly, mettle in late game situations. That's huge to me personally. There are certain guys you can just tell are rattled when the lights are on. Allen appears completely unfazed by the moment and even seems to enjoy it. Can't overstate the importance of that(in my book anyways).

 

He just MIGHT be the outlier of all outliers. But I'm not gonna put the cart before the horse considering our history with QB's. The kid "seems" different.

Certainly would be a helluva story if he succeeds considering he had not one Div 1 scholarship offer and played JuCo football for a year. Kind of a Kurt Warner type backstory. We’ll see over the next few years. 

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1 minute ago, BringBackFergy said:

Certainly would be a helluva story if he succeeds considering he had not one Div 1 scholarship offer and played JuCo football for a year. Kind of a Kurt Warner type backstory. We’ll see over the next few years. 

Pretty much everything about his story is anomalous. A guy with that talent not getting D1 offers? I don't care that he was 180 pounds. That's weird right there. Then he comes out and every analytic metric says that his accuracy at Wyoming portends utter failure in the NFL. Yet he's chosen because of his arm/size. Then as a rookie, he demonstrates ridiculous mobility that nobody expected. It's almost like both sides are "correct," but the positives appear to be outweighing the negatives at this stage. He still makes throws that you don't expect even the worst NFL QB to make. Then he turns around and makes a throw you don't expect the BEST NFL QB to make. 

 

Regardless of what you think of Allen, the story is certainly interesting.

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