row_33 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 and it's a point spread, not the largest lead during a game the Bills could be down 28 and put together a garbagetime backdoor cover the winner on spreads flips often in the last 2 minutes of a game due to those pesky backdoor covers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 1 minute ago, row_33 said: that's the goal, but they are often heavily exposed on one end of a given game if they've made a brutal error they allow the first party to expose it to make a large bet, then close it off And this is totally unconfirmed and my own personal opinion, but I do a fair amount of gambling and I think the sportsbooks take a couple games a year in a given sport that they either feel very confident in or have some information that the betting public can't access and clean up with odds that get a ton of action on the wrong side...and I think this is one of those lines. This is how Vegas makes their money off sucker fans like me. 2 minutes ago, row_33 said: the betting market would force it up or down if required Opened at 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: And this is totally unconfirmed and my own personal opinion, but I do a fair amount of gambling and I think the sportsbooks take a couple games a year in a given sport that they either feel very confident in or have some information that the betting public can't access and clean up with odds that get a ton of action on the wrong side...and I think this is one of those lines. This is how Vegas makes their money off sucker fans like me. Opened at 6 my firm does work on casino compliance reviews around the world, so some stories come back on major losses on a given Sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 i marked results for spreads pools for years, and i can't count the number of times the spread reversed in the last minutes of a nothing game, causing me to remark the pool picks. i've never felt that a win or loss was at stake in "fixing" but last-minute backdoor covers make me wonder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Just Joshin' said: Care to post his track record? Google is easy to use https://www.masseyratings.com/nfl/ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stallions Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 10 hours ago, BigBuff423 said: I wish the optimist in me could see the Bills getting a win this weekend, but I don't think that happens. As for all the media pundits expressing their confidence in the Pats' win, there's just no way to justify that they shouldn't. Until the Bills can win consistently AND prove they can beat the Patriots, I don't blame a single person for doubting it. That said, if the Defense shows out, then the Bills are in this game no matter what. I think I'm MORE concerned with the Pats Defense holding the Bills Offense than I am the Bills Defense holding the Pats Offense. Brady will Brady....but I could see the Bills' D keeping the score low while giving up yards. I agree the biggest problem will be gaining yards or sustaining drives vs. the PATS D. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 6 hours ago, row_33 said: i marked results for spreads pools for years, and i can't count the number of times the spread reversed in the last minutes of a nothing game, causing me to remark the pool picks. i've never felt that a win or loss was at stake in "fixing" but last-minute backdoor covers make me wonder. The Chiefs had a ridiculous one a few years ago. The Chiefs kicked a FG with 4 seconds left to take a 23-20 lead (Chiefs were favored by 6). On the last play of the game the Redskins went for a ladder play, fumbled, and the Chiefs returned for a TD to win 29-20, and to cover the spread. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2736553-chiefs-garbage-time-fumble-recovery-td-hits-backdoor-cover-in-win-vs-redskins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 17 hours ago, PatsFanNH said: GREAT WAY TO THINK! When the Pats signed AB I felt they did it for 1 reason to go 19-0 which IMO would have Brady retire and Stidham take over next year. now without AB i am almost waiting for a trade for a big name WR to be traded here for a 1st rounder. My point Buffalo's time is coming probably in a year or two. This is the year. You sound very reasonable and well informed. The reason the Pats traded for AB is because Belichick knows Brady is close to being done. Belichick knows Brady needs great receivers to be good. Brady use to make good receivers look great. The oline for NE is banged up. Sony is struggling to get any room to run. The game is about what Buffalo does not NE. If Buffalo plays its best game and NE does to, Buffalo wins. In your head I think you know that, your heart and hopes are getting in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanNH Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said: This is the year. You sound very reasonable and well informed. The reason the Pats traded for AB is because Belichick knows Brady is close to being done. Belichick knows Brady needs great receivers to be good. Brady use to make good receivers look great. The oline for NE is banged up. Sony is struggling to get any room to run. The game is about what Buffalo does not NE. If Buffalo plays its best game and NE does to, Buffalo wins. In your head I think you know that, your heart and hopes are getting in the way. Our D IMO is better than The Bills D IMO.. there isn’t a weak spot on that side of the ball really. They stop the run and have scored more points than they have given up so far this year. As for O.. Edelman better than any WR you have RIGHT now.. and. even at 42 Brady plays his best game would destroy Allen playing his BEST Game right now.. now Allen in two years you have a discussion right now not so much. Running game Ames is the only area where the Bills are better than the Pats on O. And that’s only because the Pats run game isn’t performing up to its capabilities.. Edited September 26, 2019 by PatsFanNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Because right now the Pats are the best team in football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badassgixxer05 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 hours ago, PatsFanNH said: Our D IMO is better than The Bills D IMO.. there isn’t a weak spot on that side of the ball really. They stop the run and have scored more points than they have given up so far this year. As for O.. Edelman better than any WR you have RIGHT now.. and. even at 42 Brady plays his best game would destroy Allen playing his BEST Game right now.. now Allen in two years you have a discussion right now not so much. Running game Ames is the only area where the Bills are better than the Pats on O. And that’s only because the Pats run game isn’t performing up to its capabilities.. What holes do you see on the bills D? Cincinnati was one of the top passing attacks in league coming into last week, and Bills D made them look like a JV team for more then half the game. If Pats win this game it wont be because the D struggled, it will Def be because our O made too many mistakes. Its going to be a good 1! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 5 hours ago, billsfan_34 said: Because right now the Pats are the best team in football. i took the concern to be why this low a spread for the Pats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Joshin' Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 20 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Google is easy to use https://www.masseyratings.com/nfl/ratings It is also easy to support your facts when you make a statement. The link does not show his record picking games, only his rankings. Is there something I missed as that was the original question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said: It is also easy to support your facts when you make a statement. The link does not show his record picking games, only his rankings. Is there something I missed as that was the original question. oof, behind 1-2 Chargers, last positive... hey whatever.... thanks for the link, usually use it for NCAAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris66 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said: What holes do you see on the bills D? Cincinnati was one of the top passing attacks in league coming into last week, and Bills D made them look like a JV team for more then half the game. If Pats win this game it wont be because the D struggled, it will Def be because our O made too many mistakes. Its going to be a good 1! Leslie Frazer. He will have game plan but when he doesnt work he will have a hard time adapting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 On 9/25/2019 at 5:28 AM, 1ManRaid said: Pats D is only #1 because they played the weak Steelers, tanking Dolphins, and Jets 3rd QB. Well, that and they have the best defensive mind in NFL history as HC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 29 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said: What holes do you see on the bills D? Cincinnati was one of the top passing attacks in league coming into last week, and Bills D made them look like a JV team for more then half the game. If Pats win this game it wont be because the D struggled, it will Def be because our O made too many mistakes. Its going to be a good 1! And yet the Bills nearly lost that game because the offense was putrid for a lot of that game. Josh Allen has 5 TDS and 7* turnovers. The offense needs to be better. They play anything remotely close to how they played V the Jets or the Bengals and NE walks out with a double digit victory, easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan_34 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, row_33 said: i took the concern to be why this low a spread for the Pats I dont know why- we just need to be mistake free in all 3 phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said: I dont know why- we just need to be mistake free in all 3 phases. the Bills are planning to use STs beyond inertia? can't wait to see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Just Joshin' said: It is also easy to support your facts when you make a statement. The link does not show his record picking games, only his rankings. Is there something I missed as that was the original question. yes there is something you missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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