Why the 7 point spread with the Bills at Home?

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Frankly, I think the 7 point spread is overly generous to the Bills. I thought the Patriots would be favored by double digits. 

 

The Patriots win a lot of games, and they win them big. 

 

Patriots are 42-18 ATS since 2016. Far and away the best ATS record in the NFL. 

[Kwai San]

11 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage

 

a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field.
 

Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans.

 

The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should.

 

I think the Bills have a chance for the upset.

 

Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have.

 

VERY Smart move......upset would be the bomb.  BUT a fool and his $$$ are soon parted.

[row_33]

39 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

Care to post his track record?

 

100% accuracy

 

i've met a few like this, i tell them to send me their picks for the week coming up (i won't be using them)

 

they always fail to produce ahead of time, they talk big afterwards though...

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Frankly, I think the 7 point spread is overly generous to the Bills. I thought the Patriots would be favored by double digits. 

 

The Patriots win a lot of games, and they win them big. 

 

Patriots are 42-18 ATS since 2016. Far and away the best ATS record in the NFL. 

 

i expect the Pats to see this game as a STATEMENT game, as they pummeled the Steelers all game long....

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Ken Massey, who is a stats professor, has built statistical forecast models for all of the major pro and college sports, where he uses a lot of statistical analysis techniques.  He has this game at Pats 24 Bills 13. He has the Bills at home with an 18% win probability.  As a bills fan I hope he's wrong, but he has a pretty good track record.

Sounds about right. I’d have put it at about 15-20% chance of Bills winning. It’ll take a lot of things going right, but maybe that once every eight seasons thing continues. 

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Sounds about right. I’d have put it at about 15-20% chance of Bills winning. It’ll take a lot of things going right, but maybe that once every eight seasons thing continues. 

 

i'd want more than 5:1 odds on the Bills winning straight up.

 

 

[GoBills808]

44 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

GREAT WAY TO THINK! When the Pats signed AB I felt they did it for 1 reason to go 19-0 which IMO would have Brady retire and Stidham take over next year. now without AB i am almost waiting for a trade for a big name WR to be traded here for a 1st rounder. 

 

My point Buffalo's time is coming probably in a year or two. 

I think we are going to ***** destroy you on Sunday 

[All_Pro_Bills]

29 minutes ago, Figster said:

Great start, 

 

Hasn't come that easy for us. Buffalo has been tested, faced adversity, and prevailed.

 

Tom Brady is at the top of the world, and likes playing in Buffalo,

 

We need to change the way he feels...

This version of the Bills is just learning how to win and for this NE squad winning comes naturally.  It's just part of their culture.  At this point the Bills are playing with house money  as not one of the "experts" forecast them to start 3-0.  If I was setting the tone for the game I'd let them know right away that its going to be a 60 minute street fight.  Take some chances on both sides of the ball.  Maybe take a  hard 15 yarder early on Brady to send a message.  Not to hurt him but just to let them know that regardless of the final score this time, and every time from now on, its going to be different playing the Bills and coming into our home isn't going to be something you look forward to anymore. 

[PatsFanNH]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think we are going to ***** destroy you on Sunday 

YOU SHOULD! to Paraphrase Big Papi "Its Your BLEEPING TEAM!"  You should always expect a victory.  Just like Pats homer and as Felger puts it "footy wearing Pj" fan in me thinks we beat the bills "37-0 Gilmour having 3 picks, McCourty a pic 6 and 2 forced fumbles. .. Before the flaming happens.. I said my fandom says that not my brain... fans should always expect the best from their team! 

[GoBills808]

12 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

historically, a home team gets +3 points for home field advantage

 

a -7 at home means the smart people who set lines feel that New England is 10 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field.
 

Only 10 points off of the defending SB champion, who has not allowed an offensive TD this year is actually a spread giving Buffalo credit and looking to sucker in Bills fans.

 

The smart money is on New England. The spread started at -6 or -6.5 depending on the book.The fact it is now 7 to 7.5 means more money is backing New England, as it should.

 

I think the Bills have a chance for the upset.

 

Vegas wants people like me to bet. Therefore this week I sit on my money. Many Bills fans have.

I have this the other way round. I can't help myself when I see a 3-0 squad getting 7 points at home against a team with an entire WR corps banged up, missing two starters on offensive line, and a VERY average rush attack. 

 

I'm not looking to prove anything but it there was ever an overrated Patriots team, this would be them. 

Just now, PatsFanNH said:

YOU SHOULD! to Paraphrase Big Papi "Its Your BLEEPING TEAM!"  You should always expect a victory.  Just like Pats homer and as Felger puts it "footy wearing Pj" fan in me thinks we beat the bills "37-0 Gilmour having 3 picks, McCourty a pic 6 and 2 forced fumbles. .. Before the flaming happens.. I said my fandom says that not my brain... fans should always expect the best from their team! 

 

Right! Just like you thought you would walk through an Eagles team in the Super Bowl starting their backup QB! 

[GreggTX]

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL right now. They have Brady and the league's best defense by far. Only 7? Then again, anything can happen.

Edited September 25, 2019 by GreggTX

[PatsFanNH]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I have this the other way round. I can't help myself when I see a 3-0 squad getting 7 points at home against a team with an entire WR corps banged up, missing two starters on offensive line, and a VERY average rush attack. 

 

I'm not looking to prove anything but it there was ever an overrated Patriots team, this would be them. 

 

Right! Just like you thought you would walk through an Eagles team in the Super Bowl starting their backup QB! 

Average rush attack? your to kind!! it has stunk. But the Patriots against Similar competition have put up 13 more points a game than the bills. This game rests on the D's IMO Brady will have an easier time figuring out the Bills D than Allen the Pats D. 

 

And dang right I did.. but my brain  also thought Butler would play.. who knew BB have his panties in a bunch with him lol

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, GreggTX said:

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL right now. They have Brady and the league's best defense by far. Only 7?

Who's going to score? Their run game is awful, Gordon and Eddleman are both injured, their TE is hurt, they have a solid defense but so do the Bills...I can't think of another 3-0 team getting a TD at home, I'm taking the points myself I don't care if they're playing the '85 Bears personally. Too much value to pass up for me.

[Nextmanup]

10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Average rush attack? your to kind!! it has stunk. But the Patriots against Similar competition have put up 13 more points a game than the bills. This game rests on the D's IMO Brady will have an easier time figuring out the Bills D than Allen the Pats D. 

 

And dang right I did.. but my brain  also thought Butler would play.. who knew BB have his panties in a bunch with him lol

BB is going to make things really confusing for Josh Allen in this game, and he will struggle.

 

His raw athleticism will keep it from being a washout; I think he'll improvise a few big plays...but I expect our offense to be really neutered in this game.

 

 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Nextmanup

[PatsFanNH]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Who's going to score? Their run game is awful, Gordon and Eddleman are both injured, their TE is hurt, they have a solid defense but so do the Bills...I can't think of another 3-0 team getting a TD at home, I'm taking the points myself I don't care if they're playing the '85 Bears personally. Too much value to pass up for me.

Just to answer your question..

 

Gordon is fine was a dislocated finger and he made a highlight real catch after that happened

 

Edelman LOOKS to be fine and should play..

 

BUT you forget about:

 

Dorsett: 3 TDs already this year, and has only missed 1 ball thrown to him. 9and even that one was reviewed and I think he caught it.)

 

White: Man is a beast out of the backfield and back after his wife had a baby.

 

Burkhead : always Dangerous

 

So they have plenty talent to catch and run the ball, wouldnt be shocked see RB Harris get a lot of carries either. 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

i'd take a 7 point loss at this point in the process.   shows that we can hang with the best team in the league.  this is not the season.  weird sh-t can happen and they could pull out an unlikely win, but I doubt it.   you need to have a heck of an offense to get through the Pats this year.  Only 3 or 4 teams can do that.  bills are not one of them. 

This might be the best Defense the Pats have ever had. Brady is a surgeon in the short passing game. For us to win or keep it within 1 score we will have to play mistake free ball.  And on top of that we will need a call or 2 from the stripes? Any deviation from this and the Pats cover....

[LabattBlue]

12 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

The goal of the book is to get people to bet evenly on both sides - this way they will make money.  The perception is across the country is that NE is the best team in the league so they point spread must be high enough to get bets on the Bills. 

^^^ This.  I’m not sure why this is so difficult to understand for some. 

[row_33]

12 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

The goal of the book is to get people to bet evenly on both sides - this way they will make money.  The perception is across the country is that NE is the best team in the league so they point spread must be high enough to get bets on the Bills. 

 

that's the goal, but they are often heavily exposed on one end of a given game

 

if they've made a brutal error they allow the first party to expose it to make a large bet, then close it off

 

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

^^^ This.  I’m not sure why this is so difficult to understand for some. 

I think several folks here are saying they feel 7 is too low...could be wrong about that tho.

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think several folks here are saying they feel 7 is too low...could be wrong about that tho.

 

the betting market would force it up or down if required

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

5 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

Pats D is only #1 because they played the weak Steelers, tanking Dolphins, and Jets 3rd QB.

 

They are also down their starting LT, C, FB, two TEs, 1st round WR is on IR, and top two WRs are playing hurt.  Their running game has been weak, we'll be the best pass D they play, and our O is at least better than what they've played so far.

 

I'll take the 7 points at home, thanks.

I agree with this for the most part. Their D is not as good as it seems right now in my opinion. We will find out for sure on Sunday.