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Week 4: Pats (-7) @ Bills!!


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16 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

If the Bills play their best game and the Pats play theirs. Pats win by 10 points

Pats offence is better than Bills defense and Pats defense is better than Bills offense.

 

The big differece is in game coaching. McDermott is not very good at adjustments.

 

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55 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

If Edleman is out with his rib injury, I think the Bills have a decent chance. 

 

I trust our run Defense and I trust Tre White on Gordon

 

If Josh can have a good game, I think  we have a chance 

 

I worry most about the pats* RB's catching passes all day.

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1 hour ago, Juice_32 said:

 

Agree, they’ve got to kill the “David vs Goliath” narrative. It’s 11 men against 11 men. Period. 

 I’m quite sure that the players and the coaches feel confident they can win this game if they play well. It’s just a bunch of fans that have this “loser mentality“ regarding the Pats*. Which, given recent history, is quite understandable.  The attitude one takes is a choice. I choose to be positive that they can definitely win this game. They might pull an upset or get beaten badly. Either way, I like to stay optimistic. Research shows it causes some good chemicals to be secreted by your body when you maintain a positive attitude. If they lose, then it’s onto the next game.

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The Patriots Defense is better than the Bills. I believe their Defense has not given up a touchdown in 4 games.  That is the Super Bowl against Rams and three games this year.  The Bills will struggle to score.  I bet the game in December in New England will be closer.  I see a Pats 24-10 win.  I suspect the Bills Offense will improve as year goes on.  Can see a game like 24-21 in week 16.  Bills vs Pats in AFC championship game.  By January the Bills offense should be peaking. Third times the charm.  Would love to beat 17-0 Pats in AFC championship game.  Would erase all the years of losing to Brady.

Edited by FUTURIST
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32 minutes ago, Chris66 said:

If the Bills play their best game and the Pats play theirs. Pats win by 10 points

Pats offence is better than Bills defense and Pats defense is better than Bills offense.

 

The big differece is in game coaching. McDermott is not very good at adjustments.

 

Brutal analysis.

 

Brutal.

 

The 2019 Rams had a better offense than NE's defense. They also had a better defense than NE's offense. But the NFL is a matchup league, so it's probably worth diving JUST a bit deeper than "we're better than you".

 

Otherwise why even play the game?

 

1 minute ago, FUTURIST said:

The Patriots Defense is better than the Bills. I believe their Defense has not given up a touchdown in 4 games.  That is the Super Bowl against Rams and three games this year.  The Bills will struggle to score.  I bet the game in December in New England will be closer.  I see a Pats 24-10 win.  I suspect the Bills Offense will improve as year goes on.  Can see a game like 24-21 in week 16.  Bills vs Pats in AFC championship game.  By January the Bills offense should be peaking. 

 

I think that the problem for Buffalo is the matchup of WRs vs secondary. 

 

Gilmore will probably draw Smoke and is capable of limiting him significantly. That likely means that Beasley draws a bracket inside and Zay/Foster/Slick draw 1-1s.

 

If the Bills want to score consistent points against NE, they're going to have to hit big plays to their backs and TEs early and often and force NE to adjust.

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I was expecting 4 or 5 since it is in Buffalo.  7 is an awful big spread for an away team to cover.

I guess that's the point though.  Get some people to bet the Bills.

13 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

We won two games this year the most previous Bills teams would have given up on and lost. I don’t see a win this Sunday, but I’m excited

to be traveling to Nashville with at least a 3-1 record. 
 

 

Yeah absolutely.  Neither the pats or the bills have played anyone yet.  This sundays game should tell us a lot about the skill level of the Bills.  Regardless of the opponents, no one should question their heart.

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My biggest initial concern going into this game is our guys getting too over hyped about it all week and then hyperventilating for the first quarter. We’ve seen that before. Coaches need to help them keep perspective going in and Daboll needs to get Allen into a rhythm early so he can calm down right away. 

 

The Pats*** are playing lights out, especially on the D side. They are and should be heavy favorites going in. I hope our guys relish the underdog role and just come out and punch them in the mouth. 

 

I don’t expect them to win, but I expect them to earn some respect, regardless. 

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Heading into NE, I was curious what the (numbers in starts) for the Bills & JA look like pre-injury 2018 (5 starts), and since he returned against Jax on 11/25/18 (9 starts) through this Sunday.

 

W/L Record: pre- we were 2-3 and avg 14.6 ppg and allowing 18.2

post- 6-3 22.0 ppg and allowing 18.9

 

Clear improvement by the offense and the team

 

Passing Game: pre- he was attempting 25 passes per game for 6.0 yds/att and 11.0 yds/comp while completing 55.6% for 152 ypg, with a 2-5 TD-Int ratio and a 4.0 int%

 

post- 31.6 atts/game for 7.0yds/att and 12.5 yds/comp and a 56.3% for 221 ypg, an 11-10 TD-Int ratio and a 3.5 int%.

 

It is interesting to note that without the 6-15 opening game appearance vs Ravens, In just the starts his completion % is pretty flat before and after (56%) . However, he has increased his yds/att and yds/comp substantially. I wonder if this is a sign of improved accuracy? leading to more YAC due to better ball placement and reads. The TD:Int ratio is better and only a slight improvement in INT % (needs to improve still).

 

Mobility: Pre-3.6 sacks/gm with 30.2 yds lost and 6.2 rushes for 25.8 yds (4.2/att) and 3 rushing TDs.

Post- 1.3 sacks/gm with 8.4 yds lost and 8.9 rushes for 64.6 yds (7.3/att) and 8 rushing TDs.

 

This is especially interesting to me. The rushes+sacks are almost identical when added together (around 10 game)both pre and post.

 

Pre Injury he was losing 30 yds on sacks and gaining 25 running, a net of minus 5 yards.

 

Post he is losing about 8 on sacks and gaining 65 running, a net of plus 57 yards.

 

The yards pre and post tell a story of a QB maturing and putting the ball under his arm and taking as much as he can.

 

Closing: So it appears that you have a QB who is making better decisions( in spite of yesterday's bone-headed pass) and using his legs to help avoid the pass rush, and doing it while reducing his INT%. Significantly, JA has raised his yards/att and yards/comp as well. I think you can argue his accuracy has improved, in spite of the comp% being 56% both pre and post. And further  that something clicked when he was injured and Anderson & Barkley came on board. What remains to be seen is whether he has enough around him going forward this season.

 

Thanks for reading. Curious what some of you think?

 

 

 

39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Brutal analysis.

 

Brutal.

 

The 2019 Rams had a better offense than NE's defense. They also had a better defense than NE's offense. But the NFL is a matchup league, so it's probably worth diving JUST a bit deeper than "we're better than you".

 

Otherwise why even play the game?

 

 

I think that the problem for Buffalo is the matchup of WRs vs secondary. 

 

Gilmore will probably draw Smoke and is capable of limiting him significantly. That likely means that Beasley draws a bracket inside and Zay/Foster/Slick draw 1-1s.

 

If the Bills want to score consistent points against NE, they're going to have to hit big plays to their backs and TEs early and often and force NE to adjust.

Excellent analysis.

Edited by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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2 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

We can agree to disagree. I think the Bills are OK. Not good. 

 

My point is stop drooling over the Pats. They beat 3 tomato cans. The Bills are the first actual good team they are playing. It's not a gimme for them.

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1 hour ago, Chris66 said:

If the Bills play their best game and the Pats play theirs. Pats win by 10 points

Pats offence is better than Bills defense and Pats defense is better than Bills offense.

 

The big differece is in game coaching. McDermott is not very good at adjustments.

 

LOL says a guy who ignored late minute heroics against the JETS,  The clincher to end the Giants and the game winning drive go up to where a TD was needed to win.

 

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1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

My point is stop drooling over the Pats. They beat 3 tomato cans. The Bills are the first actual good team they are playing. It's not a gimme for them.

Even if the Steelers with Ben were a tomato can it was a 30 point beat down. Bills have struggled to win against two of their three tomato cans.

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1 hour ago, Bills2ref said:

I actually don’t have a problem with Belichick’s responses here. He obviously is not going to answer any questions about Antonio Brown, why did she even bother. 

 

1 hour ago, Bills2ref said:

She also has brain cells. He was never, ever going to answer. He didn’t even answer Antonio Brown questions when he was on the team. 

The problem wasn't his answer. I didn't think he'd answer that question, you didn't think he'd answer that question, and she definitely didn't think he would. I mean seriously watch the interview she basically gives a preamble to the question that screamed "hey I know you're not going to answer this but I've got to do my job." The problem is that after he gets asked that question he decides to act like a petulant child and not an adult who has to deal with things he doesn't like in the work place.

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