Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
HOUSE

Examining Allen Expectations

Recommended Posts

Assuming no injuries, I am expecting 4,000 yards passing and passer rating in the low 90's. 

 

I am also expecting 600+ yards rushing. 

 

I do not expect him to have any tackles. I do not expect him to have any catches. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, HOUSE said:

This statement from Wawrow,

"As for completion percentage, I think that needs to improve, but I am not as concerned about it as others. To me it is more about decision making and choosing to take the shorter, easier throws as opposed to leading the league in tossing it deep." 

captures exactly what I am looking/hoping for from Allen. If his recognition and decision making matures, the rest will take care of itself.

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

W's are the only stat that matters

 

 

  • Like (+1) 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, clearwater cadet said:

i just hope he doesnt pull a Trubisky.

 

I'd be happy with Trubisky like numbers from last year. People are looking at one game to start the season and using that as proof that Trubisky sucks. He was horrible last night, it happens. Josh will be horrible in some games this year too, it doens't mean he isn't and can't be a good QB.

  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The data in the article is not particularly encouraging.

 

Roughly half the QBs showed very minimal improvement in year 2, and roughly half didn't improve at all.

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suppose this is a good a place as any, and by asking I'm probably going through with it anyway, but would people be interested in a comparison of stats for all of the second seasons on these QBs? I've already run and posted the rookie season stats for all QBs with significant play time since 2011 previously. I guess it could be interesting to track...

 

31 rookies qualified. I suppose I could include mahomes even though he didn't qualify as a rookie. 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Whatever gets the Bills to the playoffs. That's my only expectation.

^^^^This. If this happens, then we know he directed the ball where it needed to go, when it needed to go, and for enough yardage/scores in enough situations that the Bills pulled out the W. This better include some W's over the Patsies as well, BTW. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

^^^^This. If this happens, then we know he directed the ball where it needed to go, when it needed to go, and for enough yardage/scores in enough situations that the Bills pulled out the W. This better include some W's over the Patsies as well, BTW. 

At least on over the Pats******

 

The changing of the guard should start now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Dopey said:

I'll be happy with:

3200 yds passing

24 Passing TD's

12 INT's

No more than 250 YD's rushing(a little over 15 YD's per game)

5   Rushing TD's 

58% completion

AND...PLAYOFFS!!!

 

This is realistic and 58% completion does demonstrate progress. 

 

I also want a lot fewer rushing attempts but 250 yards really underestimates his ability, even if he stays disciplined n the pocket. 

  • Like (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, frogger said:

my expectations..

3100-3300 yards passing

500-600 rushing (you can't tell him not to, felt when Taylor decided not to run, it limited our offense)

20-23 TD passes (team will have more rushing yards with Gore)

6-8 rushing TDs

62% passing (shorter routes)

 

 

I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life.

  • Meh 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life.

 

For a season or a game? 

His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win?  :nana:

 

Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely.  It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

For a season or a game? 

His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win?  :nana:

 

Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely.  It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress.

Congrats you've won a lifetime supply of 'atta boys!

I think 58% is a also a realistic sign of strong progress. Unless he turns into a drastically different kind of player somehow, I expect him to be in the bottom 10 of the league throughout his career, and that's ok as long as he learns to hit on the plays that matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

For a season or a game? 

His first year at Wyoming he threw 66.7% completions, whaddo I win?  :nana:

 

Seriously, though, to go from his 52% (after injury return) to 62% is unlikely.  It's going to be a process for Allen, and to go from 52% to 56% (college ave) or 58% would be a symptom of real progress.

Part of me recognizes that my projection of just over 60% is an optimistic leap. Another part of me sees a QB who will benefit from improved protection and is throwing to mostly new pass catchers as factors in addition to his own personal growth. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'll bet you $100 he doesn't get 62% passing. I don't think he's ever thrown that in his life.

 

Bet you loved Trubisky's scintillating 60%+ passing night last night. Because, you know, completion percentage is EVERYTHING.

 

  • Haha (+1) 1
  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I suppose this is a good a place as any, and by asking I'm probably going through with it anyway, but would people be interested in a comparison of stats for all of the second seasons on these QBs? I've already run and posted the rookie season stats for all QBs with significant play time since 2011 previously. I guess it could be interesting to track...

 

31 rookies qualified. I suppose I could include mahomes even though he didn't qualify as a rookie. 

 

I was thinking of doing that myself.  I think this article would have been more useful if the author had gone further and separated out the successful QBs -- Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Luck, Newton, and Ryan -- from the mediocre ones and compared their average stats.  I'm not interested in what the likes of Blaine Gabbert or Mark Sanchez did in their second seasons because they were busts.  Maybe the average stats for the best QBs aren't significantly better than those for the mediocre group (which would probably tell us, we still have to wait to decide how good Allen is) but I would think that they would be better, especially for QBs who were somewhat raw like Goff, Wentz or Newton.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Bet you loved Trubisky's scintillating 60%+ passing night last night. Because, you know, completion percentage is EVERYTHING.

 

Were we having a different conversation that I wasn't aware of?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm expecting JA to pass for aboot 3500 yds with about a 58% completion rate, Ay!

 

I expect him to run less and throw the ball away a little more, but he I still a definite dual threat.

Edited by ddaryl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3500 yards passing, 23-25 passing TDs, 6-8 rushing TDs, 600 yards rushing.  Would be a great year 2.

 

 

Edited by HeHateMe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I was thinking of doing that myself.  I think this article would have been more useful if the author had gone further and separated out the successful QBs -- Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Wentz, Luck, Newton, and Ryan -- from the mediocre ones and compared their average stats.  I'm not interested in what the likes of Blaine Gabbert or Mark Sanchez did in their second seasons because they were busts.  Maybe the average stats for the best QBs aren't significantly better than those for the mediocre group (which would probably tell us, we still have to wait to decide how good Allen is) but I would think that they would be better, especially for QBs who were somewhat raw like Goff, Wentz or Newton.

I see what you're getting at. I can present it 2 ways, 1 where I just rank the sophomore years against each other, and another where we show the stats from each year for the accepted successes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Completion % to me is really not that overwhelmingly important.  2 to 1 Td to interception.  24 to 12.  Showing the ability to win from the pocket more consistently.  I'm very bullish on Allen.  I think he has it.  If he reaches his potential Buffalo will be a scary team.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Congrats you've won a lifetime supply of 'atta boys!

I think 58% is a also a realistic sign of strong progress. Unless he turns into a drastically different kind of player somehow, I expect him to be in the bottom 10 of the league throughout his career, and that's ok as long as he learns to hit on the plays that matter.

I’ve gone through the math before and will do so again here.  Let’s say Allen throws 30 passes in a game.  A 52% rate is 15.4 catches and a 60% is 18 catches.  So 2-3 incompletions have to turn into completions.

 

Now does that reallly seem that impossible?  Really?  Just getting rid of Benjamin and his drops get you close probably.  Not having to throw one ball away with a better O line vs. running for your life gets you there.  Having Beasley running his routes gets you there.

 

It is so tiresome to keep reading about how he’ll never be accurate as accuracy has little to do with completion percentage.  It is so tiresome to keep reading that he has never done that in high school and college since it says nothing about the style of offense he ran or that his high school career has a tinker’s damn worth of relevance to the NFL.

 

I am not transfixed on what his numbers will be or not be this year.   In a second year QB I want to see the game slow down.  I want to see his decision making evolve, see him go through progressions quicker, go to his safety valve and take the easier throw more.  If he does that his numbers will look better.  Putting some artificial limit on what we have to see is meaningless.  

  • Thanks! (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MDH said:

 

I'd be happy with Trubisky like numbers from last year. People are looking at one game to start the season and using that as proof that Trubisky sucks. He was horrible last night, it happens. Josh will be horrible in some games this year too, it doens't mean he isn't and can't be a good QB.

People need to reconcile this simple fact. He will have completely crappy games. But some people won’t even allow him to throw one lousy pass without analyzing the F out of it, so there is no hope for them to accept a bad game here and there. 

 

The true measure is how dies Allen respond to those bad plays, bad series, and bad games. It’s all about getting up off the mat. Personally, I think Josh Allen is just fine in that regard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I’ve gone through the math before and will do so again here.  Let’s say Allen throws 30 passes in a game.  A 52% rate is 15.4 catches and a 60% is 18 catches.  So 2-3 incompletions have to turn into completions.

 

Now does that reallly seem that impossible?  Really?  Just getting rid of Benjamin and his drops get you close probably.  Not having to throw one ball away with a better O line vs. running for your life gets you there.  Having Beasley running his routes gets you there.

 

It is so tiresome to keep reading about how he’ll never be accurate as accuracy has little to do with completion percentage.  It is so tiresome to keep reading that he has never done that in high school and college since it says nothing about the style of offense he ran or that his high school career has a tinker’s damn worth of relevance to the NFL.

 

I am not transfixed on what his numbers will be or not be this year.   In a second year QB I want to see the game slow down.  I want to see his decision making evolve, see him go through progressions quicker, go to his safety valve and take the easier throw more.  If he does that his numbers will look better.  Putting some artificial limit on what we have to see is meaningless.  

It's completely understandable for you to see that it's totally realistic for that to happen. i mean, after all, like you said, it's only 2-3 catches a game right? However, it just doesn't happen. The things that make a guy miss those 2-3 completions are extremely hard to fix once they're in the pros. When we drafted him, I hated the pick because of it and did a ton of research comparing college completion percentages to pro career numbers. For franchise-type guys or even guys like Dalton and Tannehill etc they remain shockingly close their college numbers on average and RARELY see a jump of more than 3%. Favre and Moon did, but their numbers were in the 40s, and there's a couple other outliers. 

Overwhelmingly, though, guys don't go from mid to low 50's in college to 60's in the pros. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be successful. It just means it's highly unlikely his percentage goes above 60.

Edited by BullBuchanan
  • Haha (+1) 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

..like to see him build his confidence by playing within himself (doesn't have to put team solely on his shoulders EVERY week), letting the game come to him as Daboll calls it....as he grows, Daboll can get more creative and innovative IMO.......the numbers and "W's" will follow.............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...