iinii Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Lurker said: Nope. But an key AFC contender for a playoff spot will be 0-1.... Little chance of that. The Jets aren’t a contender and I think we win going away. Our D will carry them against a team we should sweep this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radar Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Just now, iinii said: Little chance of that. The Jets aren’t a contender and I think we win going away. Our D will carry them against a team we should sweep this year. This would surprise me greatly and make me happy. I favor Jets at home by a field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Just now, Radar said: This would surprise me greatly and make me happy. I favor Jets at home by a field goal. Well we will see on Sunday. As they say, “that’s why they play the game.” One of the reasons anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 40 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: I'm with you on this. It's one game. One I think the Bills are gonna win. But I'm not gonna lose my stuff if they lose. I wouldn't lose my stuff, hell, what bills fan isn't used to losing? I mean, speaking for myself, I can't remember going in to a game believing the bills will win, even against the weak opponents. I'm going in to this game just the same way. thing is, I do believe a loss is not sending them in the right direction, early. I haven't the confidence and I know they haven't taken a snap yet but I feel they need to go in there and make a statement, now. that's just me though man, who knows. they could start 0-3 and still make the playoffs but starting in a hole isn't a good start. at the end of the day, they likely don't make the playoffs anyway. they'll show some promise and I have them at 9 wins, maybe 2nd in (possibly 3rd with the L) the division? so not in the basement. this season will likely be all about JA and hopefully developing and winning a few games. 2020 after another off season and draft should be the (if marcia retires, you know how all fear marcia) season they should win at least 10 games and a chance at the division? wouldn't that be cool to have a bye and home field back in buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: I have had 2 different posters tell me that the playoffs more or less hinge on this game. Week 1. Which is, quite simply, silly. Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. Edited September 3, 2019 by PlayoffsPlease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. Losing on week two combined with an opening day loss drives your chances down even farther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 being a division and a conference game it is very important. Add to that its a road game, and road win are always big in the NFL.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important. What you mean to say is that, historically, teams that win in week 1 have a 54% success rate of making the playoffs. Any team's individual probability of making the playoffs after starting 1-0 or 0-1 will not be 54% or 25%, respectively, every time. Probability and historical success rate are not the same thing. This is statistics 101. Last year, you'd have told me that Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago, LAC, Indianapolis, Houston, and Dallas all had a 25% chance of making the playoffs...but that wouldn't be true, because you're basing that purely upon historical success rate, and not on other very relevant factors like talent, coaching, strength of schedule, injury rate, bye week, suspended players, etc. But I won't belabor the point any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) 58 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You can lose in week 1, even to a divisional opponent, and make the playoffs. You can even lose in week 1 and make the Super Bowl. Well, it certainly helps if you're a strong playoff caliber team if you're going to go that route. Of the 2018 playoff teams that lost in week 1 that you cited up-thread, only the Colts situation was comparable to what the Bills might do this year with a week 1 loss (especially to a divisional opponant). All of the other week 1 losers in 2018 were solid/consensus playoff teams--of which the Bills are definitely not, based on most NFL observers' esrimation right now... Edited September 3, 2019 by Lurker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 obviously very important AFC game AFC east game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffAlone Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Gugny said: I believe he was saying that, in order to get a WC spot, you must win games against teams in your division. I know. just trying to be a funny guy. I don't always succeed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 The Jets are a team that could be contending with the Bills for a WC and have a brutal schedule to start the season (BUF, CLE, NE, PHI, DAL, NE) but it gets a hell of a lot easier after that. The Bills are the easiest game to start the season and it's at home. Give them an L and their entire season could go down the drain very quickly. Get them into a hole quickly and let the NYC media eat them alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Emmitt Smith sat out the first two games on a contract dispute, Cowboys started 0-2 and won the SB they always include that year in the stats for teams making the playoffs starting 0-2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffAlone said: I know. just trying to be a funny guy. I don't always succeed ? Sorry, dude!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: What you mean to say is that, historically, teams that win in week 1 have a 54% success rate of making the playoffs. Any team's individual probability of making the playoffs after starting 1-0 or 0-1 will not be 54% or 25%, respectively, every time. Probability and historical success rate are not the same thing. This is statistics 101. Last year, you'd have told me that Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago, LAC, Indianapolis, Houston, and Dallas all had a 25% chance of making the playoffs...but that wouldn't be true, because you're basing that purely upon historical success rate, and not on other very relevant factors like talent, coaching, strength of schedule, injury rate, bye week, suspended players, etc. But I won't belabor the point any further. You should not belabor the point, because you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 can we have more cherry picked stats with the totally false assumption that anything that happened in the past dictates future events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said: You should not belabor the point, because you are wrong. I know I shouldn't engage here, but just for fun... Suppose I flip a typical coin 10 times, and 6 times it comes up heads. What is the probability that it will come up heads on the 11th flip? Going by the logic you're using here, the answer would be 60%. Do you think that's correct? If not, then it would behoove you to rethink who's wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dakrider Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 6 hours ago, Jobot said: It would more critical to win if they were playing in Buffalo, but still not a must win. It's wayy too early to tell how good/bad any team is going to be for the season, therefore I find it tough to put a 'must-win' label on a week 1 game. Another problem with week-1 is there is so much 'unknown' about your own team that boils all the way down to just communication and game management by the staff that has to get worked out. Thankfully all teams experience the 'week-1' challenges, so it's just another fun random variable that no one can possibly account for. I disagree. I think this is a critical game for Bills. I expect the Jets to get better as the season goes on, especially on offense. Of course I think the Bills will do that too. However the Bills Defense should be head and shoulders above the Jets D in Game 1 here and Bills have to take advantage of that and win this game. If Bills can't beat what was a lousy Jets team last year in Game 1, then Bills fans have no business talking about playoffs imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I know I shouldn't engage here, but just for fun... Suppose I flip a typical coin 10 times, and 6 times it comes up heads. What is the probability that it will come up heads on the 11th flip? Going by the logic you're using here, the answer would be 60%. Do you think that's correct? If not, then it would behoove you to rethink who's wrong here. to play along... if you could tell me right now how many wins the 2nd WC team from the AFC needs, that might help... it has required from 9 to 11 the last few years that makes a ton of difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 1 minute ago, row_33 said: to play along... if you could tell me right now how many wins the 2nd WC team from the AFC needs, that might help... it has required from 9 to 11 the last few years that makes a ton of difference We don't know. That's part of the point. They all matter. I don't have anything else that I can add to my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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