Run:pass ratio - what's best for Allen's development?

[NickelCity]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In hindsight, that was an unusual game with a very old-fashioned run-pass ratio.  Something like 66% run, 34% pass early on.

 

I'd love someone better at diagramming plays to confirm, but to me it looked as though early on, they were trying to run the same plays for Gore and Shady, lining them up on alternating series.  In hindsight, it was clearly a "vet evaluation" game and if I'd seen it earlier I'd have been "one of those two gonna go"

 

 

 

Without a doubt. It was strictly an evaluation game.

 

But it did drive home the potential pitfalls of such an old school approach...one we've used with other QBs in recent memory. Who can forget Spiller between the tackles again and again and again lol.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

My answer is frankly I don’t care about a ratio for Josh’s development.

 

i expect an offense that takes what the defense gives and it will change every week, so the team needs to be able to do it all well from 5 wide empty to power run. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

Without a doubt. It was strictly an evaluation game.

 

But it did drive home the potential pitfalls of such an old school approach...one we've used with other QBs in recent memory. Who can forget Spiller between the tackles again and again and again lol.

 

I guess my point is I don't think you can infer from that game that Allen needs a pass-heavy "modern" attack of 60 or 65% pass.  That would be extreme in the other direction.

Last year the run/pass split was about 52% pass, 48% run.  I think that's about what Daboll would like, only with more YPC in the run game and higher completion in the pass.

[Gugny]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

IMO Allen's biggest enemy is "Hero Ball Syndrome", trying too hard to make things happen and carry the team by himself.  The best antidote to hero-ball syndrome is for a young QB to realize the team can get first downs with the run game and he can bide his time and take what the D gives him.

So I would NOT like to see a pass heavy offense.  I would like to see a balanced attack, 50-50 or 55-45 pass/run, something like that.

 

With the additional talent on offense, I'm hoping that "Hero Ball," goes away naturally.  Obviously, Beasley will be a big part of that, as well as the improved backfield.  The long balls are nice, but I'd rather see more passes at the sticks/underneath this year.

 

Totally agree that the closer to 50/50 they get, the better.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not who you're talking to, but there is also "devil in the details" there.  You say "successful (great)".  What do you mean by that?  And why omit QB who sat for a few years?

 

 

Enough yet?  I could be wrong, but I'm gonna guess it turns out there's some parameter for greatness or success you haven't spelled out that's gonna turn out to void the above.

successful and great don't belong in the same sentence? how about just leaving it as successful then. meaning, starting for a team for a number of years and at least seeing some post season action through your career.

 

as for the omitting sitting. I was leaning more toward those, mainly rookies who were thrown in to the fire, kind of like JA was. I was or do not oppose to sitting, quite the contrary. I'd rather a rookie sit a year or two as part of his development.

 

as for your choices, all good, I'm sure there may be more through the years.

 

my initial drawn out point was one can not say fail anymore then (as chemical seemed to show more toward failing) succeed this early on when referring to JA. it certainly could go either way but it looks as though Beane and company made what should be the right moves that could very well contribute to his success as well as the team as a whole? he did not look great at all last season but he showed some signs for potential so here's to hoping he does take that necessary step forward in year 2.

[JESSEFEFFER]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not who you're talking to, but there is also "devil in the details" there.  You say "successful (great)".  What do you mean by that?  And why omit QB who sat for a few years?

The most famous recent example of what you seek would be Alex Smith.  As a #1 overall pick, he started about half a season his first year.  And he sucked.  He sucked so bad that after 3 years, he appeared on a list of "5 Greatest QB Busts of All Time".  It wasn't until he missed a season (his 4th) on IR that significant improvement became apparent.  He went on to a conference championship and then steady success with his 2nd team before possibly suffering career-ending injury last year.  He certainly became successful.  Whether he became "great" or not, I suppose one could debate - football is a team game, and KC has its questionmarks as an overall team.

 

Carr might be another example of a QB who appeared poised for success after his 3rd season.  He took a step between Year 1 and 2, but a bigger step Year 3.  Then various stuff set him back.  I don't think most people would call him "great", but I personally would be happy for the Bills to have a QB with Carr's 2.25:1 TD/INT ratio, his 4000+ passing yards last year, and his 7.3 YPA.  He took an awful beating though last year, and unless Gruden does something about that he isn't gonna last.

 

More?  How about Russ Wilson.  Owing to a stout D and strong run game, he saw early success but his first 3 years in the league he saw a paltry low 3000s, 200-ish yards per game.  He took a big jump year 4, in completion %, YPG, and TD.

 

Enough yet?  I could be wrong, but I'm gonna guess it turns out there's some parameter for greatness or success you haven't spelled out that's gonna turn out to void the above.

 

I'll add Drew Brees to this.  There is a reason why the Chargers drafted Eli Manning and traded him for Philip Rivers after 3 years of Drew Brees.

[JESSEFEFFER]

This is kind of a trick question.  The run/pass ratio is the result of something not the cause.  Game situations, ahead or behind, one score or two, late in the game or early, down and distance.  If Josh didn't have so many scramble runs last year what would the ratio have looked like?  If 48 scramble runs were pass attempts or sacks how does change the appearance of last year's team?  Leaning on the passing game more on first down, in the first half or with only a small lead would be a sign of progress.

[Beast]

The best development for any QB is to throw the ball as much as possible however that may not be what’s best for the team.

Edited September 1, 2019 by Binghamton Beast

[RiotAct]

4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

"Allen's development" should no longer be a thing.  He got that luxury last year but that's gone now.  

He should step in and do it.  

 

If he can't, move on to the next one who can.

 

I mean, it’s his second year.  I don’t expect him to look like a late-80’s Joe Montana.  As long as he shows improvement in the short/intermediate stuff and not taking off running prematurely all the time, I’ll be more than happy.

[Don Otreply]

60/40 pass, when we have a solid lead in the 4th quarter 50/50. But mostly mix the play calling so everyone on the planet won’t know what we are likely to do. 

 

Go Bills!!!

Edited September 1, 2019 by Don Otreply

[The Frankish Reich]

It just isn't that simple anymore. I challenge anyone to find a pattern in run/pass ratio and success is 2018:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/passing-play-pct

 

So the Saints and Pats are pass-first teams with HOF QBs, right? Umm, they were 26th and 28th in the league last year in percentage of passing plays.  So you've gotta be run-first then, right? No, the Steelers were 2nd with 2/3 of their snaps as pass plays.

 

The only thing we can say for sure: the Bills were 29th in percentage of pass plays, but they were the anti-Saints; they didn't run the ball a lot because they were effective doing so. They ran the ball a lot because the passing game was so inept.

[longtimebillsfan]

On 9/1/2019 at 6:23 AM, MAJBobby said:

 

Ands Stats show that won’t happen 

We made the playoffs in 2017 with that formula.

 

I doubt that we will be that unbalanced this season.  We should rely more on the passing game.  But the point is winning, not how we do it.

[MAJBobby]

25 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

We made the playoffs in 2017 with that formula.

 

I doubt that we will be that unbalanced this season.  We should rely more on the passing game.  But the point is winning, not how we do it.

 

Thanks to another Teams ability to pass to comeback in the 4th QTR. And we’re quickly bounced from the playoffs with the Run first mindset 

[Old Coot]

Has Allen's accuracy and anticipation on short to medium throws improved enough so he can hit these routes consistently?

[John from Riverside]

It needs to be balanced

 

but

 

what I really want to see are more of those move the chains short throws that improve passer percentage that every other qb gets

 

stop making complete 3rd and forever to get called back by a penalty

[stinky finger]

On 9/1/2019 at 7:38 AM, Just Joshin' said:

It has to be situational.  To have a set % will lead to failure.

 

This.

 

Identify the defenses weakness and exploit.

[DuckyBoys]

What the run/pass % is does not matter to me.  I'm more interested to see if they become more aggressive with the play calling.  I just hope the offense is not designed to squeak out wins based on turnover differential .  Too many times this teams offense is in neutral waiting for the  defense to gift them an opportunity.  I want to see the Bills try and blow teams out if the opportunity presents itself

[TigerJ]

On 9/1/2019 at 1:03 AM, MJS said:

No, I really don't care. I just want to see execution. If we are running it well I want to see us pound it down their throats until they stop us. If we are passing it well and the defense can't seem to adjust, keep letting it fly.

 

I hope our offensive coordinator doesn't go into a game hoping for a certain ratio. We should be playing to our strengths and attacking the specific weaknesses of our defense.

Unless Daboll believes Allen just can't handle a pass heavy game plan, I think Daboll will take a very game specific approach, which he should.  If Buffalo is playing a team with an average or worse defensive line and linebackers, and has great corners who like to play man coverage, I hope Daboll pounds the rock until the D says "uncle".  Then pound it some more.  If they can't cover the passing game any better than a a kid's water color paint set, they don't need to run the whole game.  Obviously, most of the time, the reality is going to be somewhere in between, so the goal is to keep the defense off balance.  Allen needs to be able to audible too, which means he has to be able to make good pre-snap reads.  I think he's getting the hang of it though, so I'm optimistic.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

On 9/1/2019 at 12:57 AM, Rc2catch said:

I just was a modern offense that’s consistent. 

I would love to see some 300 yard games that go along with a win. Love to see a dominant third down rushing team that can just overpower defenses. 

The 300 yard game, never has there been a stat that means so very little, but is wanted ever so much by fans in this pass happy league. Last year throwing for 300 yards only gave teams a 50/50 chance to win. Total record for 300 yard passers in 2018........65-65-2. 100 yard rushers on the other hand, 100 yard rushers were 84-26-1 last year, including 49-9-1 in the first 11 weeks. Run the ball, play good defense and throw more when you want to, not when you have to. If Josh shows he's really the man. throw a bit more. 

[billsbackto81]

I'd be happy just seeing a run game that is so effective that defenses can't predict when Josh "has to" pass. 

I'm tired of seeing pass formations on 3rd and 2 or 3rd and 3. If defenses can't pin their ears back on a pass rush Josh is going to be dangerous, especially with his feet.