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Odds of both Daboll and Frazier being back next year


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If our offense is top 20, Daboll will be interviewing. Top 15 he likely has a HC position. Frazier has a tougher hill to climb, as there seems to be a bias against DCs under a defensive-minded coach - notable exception being both Pats DCs getting HC jobs in successive year. That's why Pettine made a "lateral" move here from the Jets under Rex.

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2 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I have to disagree.  There are only 32 NFL Head Coach Jobs, generally only bad teams have an opening.  If you get the shot, you better take it.  Hopefully, you go to a place with some talent and are able to draft a QB.  Thinking out loud here, there may be openings with the Giants, Cowboys (probably not, but should be), depending on how things go, Atlanta, Washington, Denver, Sand Diego.. umm maybe Buffalo.., possibly New England in Billy hangs it up, Seattle.. who knows, but if you get a shot, you gotta go.  You dont wanna be a Jim Bob Cooter who was red hot and then fell off the map. 

 

Nothing wrong with disagreeing.  My point was NOT to take any job because you got a shot at it.

I specifically used a totally dysfunctional organization like the Arizona Cardinals as a bad career move and I will stick with it.

If Daboll is worried about becoming Jim Bob Cooter then he probably doesn't have the skills to be an NFL HC.

 

If you believe that McDermott's Head Coaching job is in jeopardy we probably don't have a lot of things in common when it comes

to watching NFL football.  

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12 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

If the Bills end up in the post season this year I think there is a pretty good chance we end up losing one or both of our coordinators next off season.

 

Frazier hasn't had a head coaching gig since 2011-13 with the Vikings.  If we put a top three defense on the field this year, which I believe is certainly possible, I think he will become a hot commodity in the league.  The Rooney Rule would help get his foot in the door for interviews where he would have a chance to impress.  He has a long coaching resume and I expect he will get another chance to be a head coach before he retires.

 

I think Daboll would be in even higher demand if we see Allen continue to develop and if this offense takes a big step forward this season.  An offensive minded coach from Belichick's coaching tree, and one who has shown he can take a raw QB prospect and help develop him, would be even more sought after in the market.

 

Success brings challenges too and one of them is holding on to your good position coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators.  That constant coaching turnover is one of the things that has made the New England run all the more impressive.  I wouldn't mind the Bills having to deal with that problem for the next twenty years or so.

 

I expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year.  If they do, I think the odds of having both Frazier and Daboll back for the start of the 2020 season is less than 50%.

 

 

 

 

 

At this point, I’d put the odds above 50% considering most NFL analysts are projecting the Bills to win between 7 and 9 games.  

 

But you make a really good point.  If the team is successful in either 2019 or 2020, I think Daboll especially will be in consideration for a HC spot

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16 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Nothing wrong with disagreeing.  My point was NOT to take any job because you got a shot at it.

I specifically used a totally dysfunctional organization like the Arizona Cardinals as a bad career move and I will stick with it.

If Daboll is worried about becoming Jim Bob Cooter then he probably doesn't have the skills to be an NFL HC.

 

If you believe that McDermott's Head Coaching job is in jeopardy we probably don't have a lot of things in common when it comes

to watching NFL football.  

Ok, I agree, for years the Browns were just a shooting range for coaching careers, I assume that's what you mean.

 

As for McD being in any danger, I highly doubt it, but if the D struggles, the record is bad and the time management doesn't improve, I don't think it's out of the question.  We know Beane didn't choose him and the roster is supposed to be greatly improved.  If they fall flat on their face AND the terrible in game decisions/ lack of in game adjustments continue ( he was better, but still bad last year), then I could see him hitting the hot seat.   Let's not forget this is an offensive based league and McD doesn't offer anything in that department and thus far has not shown the ability to recruit top talent to run the show.   I again reiterate, I think its highly unlikely, but if they fail, then its possible.

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1 hour ago, Captain Hindsight said:

He was kind of a weird hire. IIRC many people were downing down interviews before Pettine got a call

 

That is true. How far the browns have come

 

Daboll if he has a strong season will get interviews for sure from there who knows. Offensive guys are all the rage

 

Also I could definitely see frazier get hired somewhere. Sadly he'd probably be that teams second option but could see him get another shot

 

How close is frazier to the "hey I'm happy being a DC but this team would pay me x amount more dollars, can you up my pay by a million or 2?" Point in life. I got to imagine fairly close especially if the bills continue to turn it around and challenge for titles

 

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17 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, I agree, for years the Browns were just a shooting range for coaching careers, I assume that's what you mean.

 

As for McD being in any danger, I highly doubt it, but if the D struggles, the record is bad and the time management doesn't improve, I don't think it's out of the question.  We know Beane didn't choose him and the roster is supposed to be greatly improved.  If they fall flat on their face AND the terrible in game decisions/ lack of in game adjustments continue ( he was better, but still bad last year), then I could see him hitting the hot seat.   Let's not forget this is an offensive based league and McD doesn't offer anything in that department and thus far has not shown the ability to recruit top talent to run the show.   I again reiterate, I think its highly unlikely, but if they fail, then its possible.

 

The Browns past is a perfect example.

 

McD advises Beane on talent but it's Beane's job acquiring talent.

I don't put much stock in the Offensive/Defensive HC previous role as much as others.

Daboll is starting to prove himself and will take on more responsibility this year.

 

My hope is seeing Beane/McDermott/Daboll becoming a complimentary team this year.

 

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13 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

  An offensive minded coach from Belichick's coaching tree, and one who has shown he can take a raw QB prospect and help develop him, would be even more sought after in the market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oy.

 

Anyway, considerable excitement acknowledged, can we at least wait to see this combo put together a team with a winning record before we worry about all the other teams stealing them away?

 

 

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Is Frazier interested in being a head coach again?  It would be great for the Bills if he took the Wade Phillips mindset and wanted to hunker down in a D-coord position that suites his strengths.  I think too many guys young coaches feel like they 'need' to become head coaches, when in reality, it takes a special breed for that job.

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The Browns past is a perfect example.

 

McD advises Beane on talent but it's Beane's job acquiring talent.

I don't put much stock in the Offensive/Defensive HC previous role as much as others.

Daboll is starting to prove himself and will take on more responsibility this year.

 

My hope is seeing Beane/McDermott/Daboll becoming a complimentary team this year.

 

In terms of talent for McD, I was refering to the fact he has brought in guys as coaches who have failed in their past NFL stints.  Daboll is no exception, but given a QB its a different story, so lets see where that goes.

 

I agree its on Beane to get the right players in here.  I'd say he has done a pretty good job, but he needs somebody to slap him when he gets excited over nobodies like Chris Ivory and hands them exorbanent amounts of guaranteed money. 

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18 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

ok, nice angle OP.

 

Let's slow the roll. True no other team has moved so much as Buffalo in Las Vegas. They started at 6.5 over under to 7.5. That is tremendous movement! But it means adjusting to league average.

 

This team is solid 8-8 to 10-6 material. I think if everything goes wrong (Morse out, another bad injury, no one new shows etc) this team is 7-9 to 8-8 good.

If this roster stays healthy, and gets a few bounces of the ball 10-6 even 11-5 is possible.

 

In the middle is 8-8 to 9-7, which is where I think this team ends up. Hey the 1987 Bills were 7-8 but were building a team.

 

No one is picking up coaches from a 7-9 to 9-7 team after  6-10 season.

 

it will take a few 10-6 or better seasons before our assistant coaches get picked up. Until then enjoy what is top to bottom one of Buffalo's better coaching staffs in the last decade.  This team at 7-9 or 8-8 is a bit of a disappointment. 9-7 to 10-6 we see progress, and a possible run. 11+ is a bit of a pipe dream.

I agree with everything in this.  Lets hope its 10-6 and playoffs this year, but next year is our serious contender year - maybe gunning for the division.

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On 8/16/2019 at 10:47 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

 

The Bears OC is irrelevant, Nagy runs the Bears offense, that’s why he was hired as head coach.

 

The Bears fired John Fox as head coach and brought in Nagy to coach Trubisky because they thought he could get more out of Trubisky, and he did.  It’s Nagy who turned around Trubisky.  If Allen plays great this year is McDermott getting the credit?  No, McDermott is a defensive coach, Daboll will get the credit.

 

We can revisit this after the season and see who is on target here.

 

 

Well, yeah, the Bears OC is irrelevant ... unless you're making the very very optimistic argument that you're making about the Bills OC.

 

And it's nonsense that Nagy gets all the credit for turning around Trubisky. Some, sure, but Nagy isn't hanging out in only the QB meetings. He's the head coach. His OC will get a ton of the credit for the improvement of Trubisky and the offensive unit. The head coach gets the credit for the whole team. Below that level the credit or blame starts to fragment. 

 

Oh, and Nagy wasn't hired to run the offense. If he was, he'd be the OC. He was hired to run the team, that's why they hire guys for the head coaching job. Did he put more of his imprint on the offense? Sure. But the OC gets plenty of the credit there. The problem for Helfrich is that one season isn't enough.

 

If Allen plays great, is McDermott getting the credit, you ask? Um, yeah, a very significant part of it. And Daboll will get a bunch and Ken Dorsey will get plenty, too. 

 

But with Daboll having had zero years of success as a pro OC till now, assuming he does have success in 2019, he'll be about as likely as Helfrich to get another OC job or particularly an HC job in 2020 as you're suggesting, after one pretty good year. He would almost certainly be expected to show consistency before he started appearing near the tops of coaching lists.

 

I doubt either Bills coordinator will move on after this year, but if one did, it would probably be Frazier. 

 

10% chance, roughly, IMO, unless we make the Super Bowl or something.

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On 8/15/2019 at 11:25 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

If the Bills end up in the post season this year I think there is a pretty good chance we end up losing one or both of our coordinators next off season.

 

Frazier hasn't had a head coaching gig since 2011-13 with the Vikings.  If we put a top three defense on the field this year, which I believe is certainly possible, I think he will become a hot commodity in the league.  The Rooney Rule would help get his foot in the door for interviews where he would have a chance to impress.  He has a long coaching resume and I expect he will get another chance to be a head coach before he retires.

 

I think Daboll would be in even higher demand if we see Allen continue to develop and if this offense takes a big step forward this season.  An offensive minded coach from Belichick's coaching tree, and one who has shown he can take a raw QB prospect and help develop him, would be even more sought after in the market.

 

Success brings challenges too and one of them is holding on to your good position coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators.  That constant coaching turnover is one of the things that has made the New England run all the more impressive.  I wouldn't mind the Bills having to deal with that problem for the next twenty years or so.

 

I expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year.  If they do, I think the odds of having both Frazier and Daboll back for the start of the 2020 season is less than 50%.

 

 

 

 

Lol I love when people think every Bills coach will be a HC. 

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What’s odds they would choose to stay if Pegs gives them a serious raise?

 

Go Bills!!!

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