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Inigo Montoya

Odds of both Daboll and Frazier being back next year

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If the Bills end up in the post season this year I think there is a pretty good chance we end up losing one or both of our coordinators next off season.

 

Frazier hasn't had a head coaching gig since 2011-13 with the Vikings.  If we put a top three defense on the field this year, which I believe is certainly possible, I think he will become a hot commodity in the league.  The Rooney Rule would help get his foot in the door for interviews where he would have a chance to impress.  He has a long coaching resume and I expect he will get another chance to be a head coach before he retires.

 

I think Daboll would be in even higher demand if we see Allen continue to develop and if this offense takes a big step forward this season.  An offensive minded coach from Belichick's coaching tree, and one who has shown he can take a raw QB prospect and help develop him, would be even more sought after in the market.

 

Success brings challenges too and one of them is holding on to your good position coaches and offensive and defensive coordinators.  That constant coaching turnover is one of the things that has made the New England run all the more impressive.  I wouldn't mind the Bills having to deal with that problem for the next twenty years or so.

 

I expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year.  If they do, I think the odds of having both Frazier and Daboll back for the start of the 2020 season is less than 50%.

 

 

 

 

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I sure do prefer the idea of them getting hired away a LOT more than the idea of firing them! It means we did some good stuff! Let’s do good stuff.....and hopefully keep our coaches. 

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If Allen busts out and I'm talking 4000 yards and 30 total TDs Daboll is gone.  

 

Frazier I don't know.  How much credit for the D with McD as head coach, who at one point last year took over play calling.  Not sure.  

 

Leslie is a great human and coach but the trend is offense and or younger guy on defensive side of the ball.

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I don’t think Leslie is head coaching material. The guy seems best fit for a coordinator. If he did get hired away, I’m confident his successor would be fine. It would likely be an internal promotion and running the same McD defense. 

 

Daboll might be harder to replace. I think he’s at least two years away from getting serious HC consideration though. 

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With McDermott as HC I'm less worried about losing Frazier if things come together on offense it would really suck to lose Daboll though I guess Dorsey is waiting in line. Ideally I'd hope Daboll or even both could stick around for the Super Bowl run in the next few years if things keep going according to plan.

3 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

If Allen busts out and I'm talking 4000 yards and 30 total TDs Daboll is gone.  

 

Frazier I don't know.  How much credit for the D with McD as head coach, who at one point last year took over play calling.  Not sure.  

 

Leslie is a great human and coach but the trend is offense and or younger guy on defensive side of the ball.

I mean that does make sense for Frazier but still the Patriots have lost plenty of DC to HC jobs despite Belichick being a defensive genius.

 

3 minutes ago, Sig1Hunter said:

I don’t think Leslie is head coaching material. The guy seems best fit for a coordinator. If he did get hired away, I’m confident his successor would be fine. It would likely be an internal promotion and running the same McD defense. 

 

Daboll might be harder to replace. I think he’s at least two years away from getting serious HC consideration though. 

I'd think he'd need more than a year of a good offense but then Arizona hired Kingsbury so I'm not sure people care anymore.

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I don't think Frazier will ever be a head coach again. For Daboll to get a chance we'd have to go far in the playoffs.

 

So I think the chances are pretty high they'll still be here. But I bet Daboll will get a gig one day.

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Frazier. No chance and I wouldn't really care. McDermott runs the defense. Daboll hasn't proven much of anything in the NFL, but if he has success with Allen, there's a chance.

 

These would be first world problems. If Allen balls out under Daboll, it means he's legit and probably doesn't need a specific coordinator to succeed.

Edited by LSHMEAB

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24 minutes ago, Sig1Hunter said:

I don’t think Leslie is head coaching material. The guy seems best fit for a coordinator. If he did get hired away, I’m confident his successor would be fine. It would likely be an internal promotion and running the same McD defense. 

 

Daboll might be harder to replace. I think he’s at least two years away from getting serious HC consideration though. 

 

Agreed.  I don't think Frazier ever sees another HC job again.

 

If Daboll/the offense have a good year, I'd love to see some consistency moving forward - as you say, at least a couple years.

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I don't think the odds are 100%, but I do think they are high - in the 90% range that both return.

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You lost me at the first sentence....

 

Post season??

 

might as well increase those odds and “if the Bills won the Super Bowl....”

Edited by Chill
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38 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

If Allen busts out and I'm talking 4000 yards and 30 total TDs Daboll is gone.  

 

Frazier I don't know.  How much credit for the D with McD as head coach, who at one point last year took over play calling.  Not sure.  

 

Leslie is a great human and coach but the trend is offense and or younger guy on defensive side of the ball.

 

Oh, your lips to God's ears if Daboll can get this production out of Allen this year.  I would have an even bigger man-crush on Allen than I do now.

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ok, nice angle OP.

 

Let's slow the roll. True no other team has moved so much as Buffalo in Las Vegas. They started at 6.5 over under to 7.5. That is tremendous movement! But it means adjusting to league average.

 

This team is solid 8-8 to 10-6 material. I think if everything goes wrong (Morse out, another bad injury, no one new shows etc) this team is 7-9 to 8-8 good.

If this roster stays healthy, and gets a few bounces of the ball 10-6 even 11-5 is possible.

 

In the middle is 8-8 to 9-7, which is where I think this team ends up. Hey the 1987 Bills were 7-8 but were building a team.

 

No one is picking up coaches from a 7-9 to 9-7 team after  6-10 season.

 

it will take a few 10-6 or better seasons before our assistant coaches get picked up. Until then enjoy what is top to bottom one of Buffalo's better coaching staffs in the last decade.  This team at 7-9 or 8-8 is a bit of a disappointment. 9-7 to 10-6 we see progress, and a possible run. 11+ is a bit of a pipe dream.

Edited by RocCityRoller

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I disagree with what most people are saying here.

 

If the Bills have a good offense, Daboll will get HC opportunities right away.

 

The trend right now is up-and-coming OCs.

 

If Allen balls out, Daboll gets the added credit of being a QB whisperer.

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21 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

ok, nice angle OP.

 

Let's slow the roll. True no other team has moved so much as Buffalo in Las Vegas. They started at 6.5 over under to 7.5. That is tremendous movement! But it means adjusting to league average.

 

This team is solid 8-8 to 10-6 material. I think if everything goes wrong (Morse out, another bad injury, no one new shows etc) this team is 7-9 to 8-8 good.

If this roster stays healthy, and gets a few bounces of the ball 10-6 even 11-5 is possible.

 

In the middle is 8-8 to 9-7, which is where I think this team ends up. Hey the 1987 Bills were 7-8 but were building a team.

 

No one is picking up coaches from a 7-9 to 9-7 team after  6-10 season.

 

it will take a few 10-6 or better seasons before our assistant coaches get picked up. Until then enjoy what is top to bottom one of Buffalo's better coaching staffs in the last decade.  This team at 7-9 or 8-8 is a bit of a disappointment. 9-7 to 10-6 we see progress, and a possible run. 11+ is a bit of a pipe dream.

 

December 24, 2018

https://thepowersweep.com/blog/brian-daboll-packers-head-coach-candidate

 

December 7, 2018

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/12/07/buffalo-bills-offensive-coordinator-brian-daboll-mentioned-for-head-coach-coaching-gigs-doug-marrone-green-bay-packers-jacksonville-jaguars/

 

These articles came out after last season with the Bills finishing with a record of 6-10.  If we make the playoffs this year and Allen takes a step forward, I think Daboll will almost certainly be a serous candidate for head coaching positions, especially for teams that are looking to draft a quarterback in the first round.

 

 

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya

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Sooner or later, Brian Daboll will get hired as a head coach. I've already accepted it.

I'm hoping that Ken Dorsey takes liberally from his playbook and winds up being a worthy candidate to replace him.

I suppose we're getting ahead of ourselves, though...

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Let's say both sides of the ball have a great year,  i.e Top 10 finishes.

 

I could see Daboll being a hot candidate for a head coach position simply because of what he has to work with. A second year raw QB project, aging RB's, no name TE's, patchwork O-line, and a WR corps many look upon as underwhelming. A Top 10 finish from that group would be the second greatest miracle next to the parting of the Red Sea.

 

The Defense was already formidable outside some lapses in run stopping. Jerry Hughes, Tre White, Hyde and Poyer, Milano and Edmunds, and now Oliver are all quality defensive players. Frazier has much more talent plus has already had his shot and would be considered by many as a retread . The new NFL wants young, innovative minds to coach there teams. Daboll would fit the bill. Frazier, not so much.

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I would say very high.....

I don't think Frazier will get another sniff.  Much of the defensive credit seems to go to McDermott.

Daboll you'd think has a slight chance, but this offense would have to take a hige jump for him to be a legitimate candidate next year and I don't see that type of rise.  I'm talking the Bills offense being in the Top 10-12 in the NFL.  I don't see that happening with our QB, honestly I'm hoping to finish in the 16-20 range offensively (we were 31st last yr.)

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The combination of Frazier's time to be considered for HC position has passed and many/most will think McDermott is the defensive architect almost entirely rules out Frazier.

 

If the offense does well, Daboll is really a one hit wonder at that point. He has no head coaching experience at any level, his previous NFL stints as OC were unsuccessful and coaches from the offensive side of the Belichick coaching tree do not have a great track record as head coaches.

 

So I'd say likelihood both are back is 95%, nothing is a sure thing. 

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All the people certain Frazier won't get another shot should remember he was interviewed by the Colts when McDaniels bailed on them before they settled on Reich. He did have a 10 win season in Minnesota too and, yes, the fact he helps a team fulfill a Rooney Rule requirement doesn't hurt either. 

 

What goes against him most is his age. He is 60. I think the NFL trend for Head Coaches is to go younger. But if the Bills defense had a year where it was top 5 in yards and points I wouldn't be shocked to see him pick up interviews. 

 

Daboll I suspect would need at least two years of good offensive production - but if there is a lack of offensive minds on the market come January then who knows? 

 

The likelihood is both are back in 2020. But it isn't impossible that if the Bills have a good year both could get looks. 

 

A more interesting question might be whether there are "in-house" options on the current staff to replace them if for any reason they do go. 

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If the offensive has a great year I could see Daboll being a possible candidate as the young, offensive mind is so hot right now.  The knock against him is he's from the haunted Belichick coaching tree.  I could also see him as the scapegoat and fired if the offense doesn't improve this year.

 

Given the NFL is a copycat league it would be interesting to see how Vic Fagino does this year.  If he turns the Broncos around teams may be more willing to look at older, more experienced defensive coordinators increasing the likelihood Frazier gets a look if our D has a good year.  He'd be a really boring hire though for an owner looking to excite his fan base.

 

 

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If Adam Gase can be a head coach then every coach in the league is at risk...

 

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I'd trade off an OC for a Lombardi, just saying. :thumbsup:

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