Year of the Home Run? Or Beginning of an Era?

[Gugny]

I wanted to start this in Off the Wall for more exposure, but I'll try here, first.

 

There is obviously no doubt that the ball is juiced this year.  HR records are being splattered on a daily basis.

 

I'm wondering if this will be a one year thing, or if they'll continue to use these juiced balls moving forward.

 

My guess is that they are still mixing in "old school" baseballs to keep it from going too crazy.  There have been low scoring games.

 

Personally, I think what they are doing sucks.  Skewing the record books and ruining the game.  Small ball rules the day.  Not a lot of strategy when it boils down to HR, strikeout or walk.

 

This is why people like Aaron Boone (who never did so much as coach a little league team before being hired) can "manage" a team that's running away with a division.  I find it pathetic.

 

Looking for your thoughts.

[SinceThe70s]

9 hours ago, Gugny said:

I wanted to start this in Off the Wall for more exposure, but I'll try here, first.

 

There is obviously no doubt that the ball is juiced this year.  HR records are being splattered on a daily basis.

 

I'm wondering if this will be a one year thing, or if they'll continue to use these juiced balls moving forward.

 

My guess is that they are still mixing in "old school" baseballs to keep it from going too crazy.  There have been low scoring games.

 

Personally, I think what they are doing sucks.  Skewing the record books and ruining the game.  Small ball rules the day.  Not a lot of strategy when it boils down to HR, strikeout or walk.

 

This is why people like Aaron Boone (who never did so much as coach a little league team before being hired) can "manage" a team that's running away with a division.  I find it pathetic.

 

Looking for your thoughts.

 

I can't say whether the bats, balls or players are juiced but none would surprise me.

 

But I think the death of small ball has more to do with the current hitters mentality. Nobody cares if they strike-out. In the past once you got two strikes you'd cut down your swing and try to put the ball in play. Not anymore, it's just grip and rip regardless the count.

 

Similarly, it's rare that a batter tries to take advantage of the over-shift. It's all about exit velocity and "launch angle". Which is really just another way of saying upper cut and used to be frowned upon.

 

The fact that pitchers are throwing harder than ever plays into it as well.

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I can't say whether the bats, balls or players are juiced but none would surprise me.

 

But I think the death of small ball has more to do with the current hitters mentality. Nobody cares if they strike-out. In the past once you got two strikes you'd cut down your swing and try to put the ball in play. Not anymore, it's just grip and rip regardless the count.

 

Similarly, it's rare that a batter tries to take advantage of the over-shift. It's all about exit velocity and "launch angle". Which is really just another way of saying upper cut and used to be frowned upon.

 

The fact that pitchers are throwing harder than ever plays into it as well.

 

The Mets have done a really good job with hitting away from the shift.  I think the shift and the juiced ball will force the minor league teams across the league to go back to fundamental baseball.

 

Remember last year, when Dom Smith swung away in a clear bunting situation?  Callaway came right out and said that he didn't bunt because, in so many words, he couldn't.

 

I think things like that will change.  I think hitters will become better and smarter.

 

I'll add this ... it is no coincidence that MLB isn't forcing teams to extend netting to the foul posts.  It's MLB's fault (juiced balls) that the "off the bat velocity," has risen, making it that much more dangerous for fans.

 

They're getting what they want with the home runs.  I don't know if it will help attract more casual fans.  Personally, I think it's crappy baseball. 

 

Back to my original point - I think it's cyclical and eventually we'll end up seeing better, more traditional, baseball.  I certainly hope so.

[SinceThe70s]

9 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

The Mets have done a really good job with hitting away from the shift.  I think the shift and the juiced ball will force the minor league teams across the league to go back to fundamental baseball.

 

Remember last year, when Dom Smith swung away in a clear bunting situation?  Callaway came right out and said that he didn't bunt because, in so many words, he couldn't.

 

I think things like that will change.  I think hitters will become better and smarter.

 

I'll add this ... it is no coincidence that MLB isn't forcing teams to extend netting to the foul posts.  It's MLB's fault (juiced balls) that the "off the bat velocity," has risen, making it that much more dangerous for fans.

 

They're getting what they want with the home runs.  I don't know if it will help attract more casual fans.  Personally, I think it's crappy baseball. 

 

Back to my original point - I think it's cyclical and eventually we'll end up seeing better, more traditional, baseball.  I certainly hope so.

 

I hope you're right about it being cyclical. I'm not in favor of rules changes to eliminate the shift, I just want to see some bunts down the third base line by power hitters. Instead their content to mash the ball into the teeth of the shift regardless of situation.

[Gugny]

Just now, SinceThe70s said:

 

I hope you're right about it being cyclical. I'm not in favor of rules changes to eliminate the shift, I just want to see some bunts down the third base line by power hitters. Instead their content to mash the ball into the teeth of the shift regardless of situation.

 

I am 100% in agreement with you.

 

Be better hitters.  Period.

[SinceThe70s]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I am 100% in agreement with you.

 

Be better hitters.  Period.

 

BTW, wrt the juicing question, I'm still scarred from we were  fed a line about the new ball manufacturer from Costa Rica winding the balls too tight and it turned out the whole league was juicing. I think that was around the time Brady Anderson looked like the second coming of Babe Ruth. 

 

In spite of hitters tendencies the number of HR's being hit is completely out of whack and it wouldn't surprise me if something else is going on too.

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

BTW, wrt the juicing question, I'm still scarred from we were  fed a line about the new ball manufacturer from Costa Rica winding the balls too tight and it turned out the whole league was juicing. I think that was around the time Brady Anderson looked like the second coming of Babe Ruth. 

 

In spite of hitters tendencies the number of HR's being hit is completely out of whack and it wouldn't surprise me if something else is going on too.

 

Without a doubt.  The ball being manufactured differently is really the only theory that holds water.  Such a dramatic shift/increase in both ball velocity and HRs from last year.  I give kudos for Verlander speaking out on it.

[SinceThe70s]

Just came across this and thought it was worth sharing since it relates to the baseball: 

 

"My guess -- and this is only a guess -- is Diaz is having trouble throwing his slider with the current baseball. Several players have noted this year's ball is harder and has lower seams*. That could make gripping the slider and getting the usual break difficult. When a pitch doesn't behave the way you're used to, it can be a big problem."

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/five-things-the-red-hot-mets-need-to-happen-to-complete-an-improbable-run-and-reach-the-postseason/

 

[Another Fan]

Not a fan of baseball as a whole today.  Between the over emphasis on analytics departments and the juiced ball as you say.

 

Stolen bases seem to be a lost art as well 

 

[SinceThe70s]

@Gugny   @Greybeard

 

Thought I'd point out the similar threads, only because I just noticed it, not to be the thread police guy.

 

 

 

[Greybeard]

13 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

@Gugny   @Greybeard

 

Thought I'd point out the similar threads, only because I just noticed it, not to be the thread police guy.

 

 

 

      Thanks for the heads up, Sincethe70's.     Since my original post I have done some searching and have come to the conclusion, MLB can say they don't juice the ball.  That doesn't mean it's the same.  I remember Pedro Martinez doing a pre-game during the Astro-Dodger World Series saying the ball didn't feel the same, it was harder and smaller.  That series was a minor slugfest.   All of a sudden some pretty good pitchers seemed to struggle.

     So, first, there is a tolerance on the how much the ball rebounds.  The spec on the Coefficient of Restitution of a baseball is between 0.578 and 0.514.   So I believe they are manufacturing the ball more consistently, but they are making it closer to the more bounce side of the tolerance.  If manufacturing deviation is less, they can do this.

     Then, oddly enough, when someone wanted to make the earth spin faster to avoid an asteroid, it inspired me to do some searching on seams.  I found a paper written in 2015 which concluded, the higher the seams, the more resistance, so the ball does not travel as far.   Again, more consistent manufacturing means they could make the seams smaller, consistently.  I don't know if there is a spec on seams but if I remember correctly, the seams max radius varied from 38mm to 36mm.   The max seam height above the ball surface varied between 0,9 and 1.4mm.  Their test results showed a 103 Meter to 118 Meter hit range, with the higher seams at the low end of travel distance and the lowest seams at the high end of travel distance.

    There is little mention of the bats, but I know I have heard repeatedly that maple is harder than ash.  So I assume the maple bats have a higher Coefficient of Restitution.

 

    If the balls are traveling 3%  further,  that is the difference of about 10 feet more on a 330 ft HR.  Take 10 feet off of all the Home Runs and I wonder how many don't make it.   Since they have stats on everything, I would like so see one on how many feet all of this years HRs cleared the fence by.   When I watch a game now, and I see a home run, I look to see if it has cleared by more than 10 feet.  

 

   Here is the link to the paper on the seams.     http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/BaseballSeamHeightDistance.pdf

 

   One odd fact I came across, was they used to use different baseballs in minor leagues than they did in the majors.  This changed about 2 years ago.  The ball they used in the minors was cheaper.   I can't remember the number, but I was amazed by the number of balls a minor league club could use in a year.