Trades Before Season & Beane's Roster Building Strategy

[MR8]

My list of guys who are most likely to be dealt (not saying all will, just the most likely candidates):

 

1) Russell Bodine - as was pointed out a few times in this thread, this guy has been a starting Center for many years in this league, and regardless of his degrees of success, he finds himself as a #2 here without the same flexibility the other backup players have.  As was also said, teams to silly things when they lose a player in TC... if a starting center goes down, I think the Bills will be a teams first call knowing we have 2 guys here who could start for a team, and obviously Morse is off the market so Bodine becomes a prime trade candidate.  I don't think he'd garner much but the Bills only have 6 picks in 2020, and we've seen Beane likes to stockpile, so he's gonna be open for business wheeling and dealing.

 

While Bodine is my #1 trade candidate, he'd also be my #1 surprise vet cut candidate.  The reason I say this is I think he would be cut earlier than most would expect out or respect to him as a vet.  Cut him after the second pre-season game but before all the other teams dump FAs onto the market.  It would be a classy move to give him time to be able to latch on to another team rather before the flood of other cuts come out.  Beane and McDermott have worked hard to treat players right, I could see them doing this if they are 100% sure he won't be here, and they can't get a deal done by then.

 

2) Shaq Lawson - I know I know, this has been floated and floated for a long time, but I think if Murphy can impress that he is 100% full go this year, they will be inclined to make a move with Shaq to a team looking to rejuvenate his career and needy of DL help.  He's on a solid 1 year prove it deal, which is ideal for us, but it's also ideal for someone willing to trade for him.  I don't think he'd come cheap, I think they'd need at least a 3rd to move him, but where he is in the pecking order and the fact that he's proven to be an edge setter but not a pass rushing DE, makes him much more expendable.   Keep an eye on teams looking to add a DE, and the battle between Murphy and Shaq... 

 

3) Ray Ray/McKenzie/Foster - I could see any of these guys go....  I think the Bills are set with their top 3 as Brown, Beasley, and Jones with Andre Roberts the likely #6WR who makes it for special teams... so you end up with just 2 WR spots left for the rest of the guys on the roster.  The Bills brought in Duke Williams and after that said they weren't worried about WR in the draft because they felt he could fill that need for them... then add in how much they valued David Sills, and I think you see the guys they WANT to make the team.   So you are left with those guys as the top 5 they want to keep, with the likes of Foster, Ray Ray and McKenzie making it a harder decision... Foster was a great surprise last year, which give him the most value out of the 3, and most likely trade target for any team looking to get better.   However he didn't show much diversity in skill set, and I think his development in that area over the next few weeks is going to be the determining factor for him being on the block or not.  Also how Sills and WIlliams produce will matter as well... but Sills and WIlliams are the big bodied WRs who would be redzone threats and physical threats which the rest of the roster lacks, so in a diverse WR room, those guys get some edge.

 

4) EJ Gaines/Kevin Johnson - The Bills right now are blessed to have 3 CBs who COULD lock up the #2 CB spot... Beane did an amazing job adding Johnson and Gaines on prove it deals, both are hightly athletic players who have some great numbers AT TIMES and WHEN HEALTHY on their resumes.  But the lack of consistency or health is the issue for these guys.  Plus both of them are going up against incumbent Levi Wallace who isn't going to make it easy for one of them to unseat him.  

 

One would naturally slide over to the slot, however we also have that spot locked up with Taron Johnson.  So we have 3 starting CBs pretty well set, and 2 VERY good CBs on 1 year prove it team friendly deals who are CB2 caliber.  Not a bad situation at all! Now the Bills could go into 2019 with all these guys and be 100% sure they have amazing depth at CB all season.  I would be perfectly fine with that, however I think they will look at their gluttony of CB talent and realize there is some great value in moving Gaines or Johnson to a team that may lose someone in pre-season and add some picks for 2020, as they are very unlikely to keep Gaines and Johnson in 2020.  Get something now rather than letting them walk later for free... or worse cut them later and get nothing.

 

5) LaAdrian Waddle/Vlad Ducasse - These guys have VERY little value, but if someone wanted them I think they could be had for a conditional 6th... in O-Line Depth that may be worth it to a team that loses a guy or two.

[Shaw66]

A friend of mine sent me this: (I think it's from the Charlotte paper covering the Panthers, the Observer).

 

Quote

The opening days of New York Giants training camp a disaster. The top three receivers might be lost for between six weeks and the season. GM Dave Gettleman might have to consider bringing in a player that brought him heartache in Carolina, Kelvin Benjamin, or a former Cowboy who is dying to get back, Dez Bryant, to scotch-tape the Giants at receiver.

 

Gettleman and Beane?

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 7/30/2019 at 2:04 AM, jwhit34 said:

Trade History

Beane has made trades during the preseason both years. In '17 it was Watkins, Darby and Ragland but also the Kevon Seymour for Kaelin Clay and a pick (turned into Tommy Sweeney). Last year he dealt AJ McCarron but also did the ill-fated Corey Coleman deal. 

 

Trade and Draft Strategy

Beane isn't shy about making trades and moving around at the draft. He has mostly moved up and by acquiring mid-late round picks has had the ammunition to move up a modest amount of slots to get guys they seem to like (Cody Ford, Dawson Knox this year) or hang onto them and pick more players. 

 

Roster Building

While you want to have your best 53 players on the roster, the reality is that the bottom of the roster (10-13) are for NFL worthy developmental players that would not clear waivers so they can't be on the practice squad (5-7) and some special teams players. Even with key subs you have about 17 players play offense (4 WR, 3 TE, 5 OL, 4 RB/FB, 1 QB), 18 on defense (8 DL, 3-4 LBs, 6-7 DBs) and 4 specialists (P, K, long snapper, return specialist) on game days from your top 40 (the rest of special teams comes from the aforementioned bottom 10-13). 

 

With the draft picks and free agents, you can make a case that there is an oversupply of NFL caliber players at DB, OL and WR (and adequate depth at RB, QB and DL). Could Beane swing deals with the surplus (and was that part of the plan all along) if they are happy with developmental players taking the last spot in some of those positions?  DBs and WRs are good examples:

• For WRs, Brown, Beasley and Jones seem locked in as top 3, Roberts is on the team as a kick/punt returner but may have WR value. Do they like McCloud or McKenzie enough to trade Foster or Jones? Could a WR desperate team (Giants?) trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for one of them? 
• For DBs,  specifically CBs, do they have 5 legit starter-worthy players (White, Wallace, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Gaines)? Is Pitts good enough as an emergency fill in to trade one of those 5? What about Siran Neal as the big nickel?

 

Even O-line, could some team take Bodine? Waddle? I won't suggest Ducasse on this board. 

 

So, I could see Beane trading a few players at the end of pre-season and picking up an extra 3 or so picks. Keep in mind it wouldn't be a guy they were cutting teams figure that out, but some of the young talent may be of interest. Example: if the interior OL is good with Spain, Morse, Feliciano and Long and a young guy like Boettger shows okay to be the inactive OL on game day could they trade Teller? 

 

I think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy. He wants to build through the draft, retain their own, and stay out of cap jail. Always having 8-10 picks and the ability to get guys you really feel strongly about allows you to do that. Most of all it seems like he has a comprehensive strategy which is refreshing.

 

 

 

Nice post. Thanks.

 

Worth noting that the McCarron trade now looks like a bit of a mistake, although you could also say that maybe the mistake was not bringing in Anderson the minute the McCarron trade was made. And also that the last couple of years they were also on a desperate mission to cut salaries and get the cap in shape. This year the cap looks good rather than terrible. It's less urgent on cap grounds to cut/trade guys if you think they might still be good depth than it was last year when we were still working our way out of the horrible cap situation they'd been left in by previous management.

 

If there's anyone they can spare that could draw a pick in value, I could see it happen. McCoy is the obvious guess. Lawson, maybe, if one or two of the younger guys takes a step up? When I read your post, I thought OL immediately, but as I look at the roster, I think the guys that they brought in as proven FAs are likely to be needed as depth. I don't think anyone trades us for Ducasse or Bodine if they want one of them. A 7th, maybe, for Bodine, and a 6th or 7th for Ducasse? Could we get that? Both of them look likely to be cut, so would teams trade? We're doing well at CB but that's a position that often sees injuries.

 

I'm not sure beyond McCoy and Lawson.

 

Worth remembering also that a lot of the reason they brought in so many trade picks the past couple of years was to be sure they had the ammo to move up and take a QB.

 

I like GMs who play the draft thoughtfully. Bringing in extra picks is just good smart strategy. Anyway, good post.

Edited July 31, 2019 by Thurman#1

[CDogg20]

On 7/29/2019 at 1:25 PM, KGun12TD said:

I don't want for the Bills to trade FOSTER! No!!!

Dude is the real deal! 

[formerlyofCtown]

On 7/29/2019 at 1:04 PM, jwhit34 said:

Trade History

Beane has made trades during the preseason both years. In '17 it was Watkins, Darby and Ragland but also the Kevon Seymour for Kaelin Clay and a pick (turned into Tommy Sweeney). Last year he dealt AJ McCarron but also did the ill-fated Corey Coleman deal. 

 

Trade and Draft Strategy

Beane isn't shy about making trades and moving around at the draft. He has mostly moved up and by acquiring mid-late round picks has had the ammunition to move up a modest amount of slots to get guys they seem to like (Cody Ford, Dawson Knox this year) or hang onto them and pick more players. 

 

Roster Building

While you want to have your best 53 players on the roster, the reality is that the bottom of the roster (10-13) are for NFL worthy developmental players that would not clear waivers so they can't be on the practice squad (5-7) and some special teams players. Even with key subs you have about 17 players play offense (4 WR, 3 TE, 5 OL, 4 RB/FB, 1 QB), 18 on defense (8 DL, 3-4 LBs, 6-7 DBs) and 4 specialists (P, K, long snapper, return specialist) on game days from your top 40 (the rest of special teams comes from the aforementioned bottom 10-13). 

 

With the draft picks and free agents, you can make a case that there is an oversupply of NFL caliber players at DB, OL and WR (and adequate depth at RB, QB and DL). Could Beane swing deals with the surplus (and was that part of the plan all along) if they are happy with developmental players taking the last spot in some of those positions?  DBs and WRs are good examples:

• For WRs, Brown, Beasley and Jones seem locked in as top 3, Roberts is on the team as a kick/punt returner but may have WR value. Do they like McCloud or McKenzie enough to trade Foster or Jones? Could a WR desperate team (Giants?) trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for one of them? 
• For DBs,  specifically CBs, do they have 5 legit starter-worthy players (White, Wallace, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Gaines)? Is Pitts good enough as an emergency fill in to trade one of those 5? What about Siran Neal as the big nickel?

 

Even O-line, could some team take Bodine? Waddle? I won't suggest Ducasse on this board. 

 

So, I could see Beane trading a few players at the end of pre-season and picking up an extra 3 or so picks. Keep in mind it wouldn't be a guy they were cutting teams figure that out, but some of the young talent may be of interest. Example: if the interior OL is good with Spain, Morse, Feliciano and Long and a young guy like Boettger shows okay to be the inactive OL on game day could they trade Teller? 

 

I think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy. He wants to build through the draft, retain their own, and stay out of cap jail. Always having 8-10 picks and the ability to get guys you really feel strongly about allows you to do that. Most of all it seems like he has a comprehensive strategy which is refreshing.

 

Why would you trade cheap young talent?

Giving up a 7th for a former 1st rounder is hardly an ill fated move.  

You probably have missed a key point in their strategy.

Watkins and Darby were at the end of their rookie deals and Ragland was not a scheme fit.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 7/29/2019 at 3:41 PM, Magox said:

My guess is that the Bill's believe they have a solid enough roster to mortgage away high draft picks for elite franchise like playmakers similar to what the Bears did for Mack.

If it looks like Allen is definitely the real deal and we have all the other pieces needed.  Then yes they may do that.  As it is right now it wont happen.  Im glad that this team isnt as instant gratification  oriented as a lot of its fan base.  Hopefully we have drafted our own and will likely need to sign them.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

If it looks like Allen is definitely the real deal and we have all the other pieces needed.  Then yes they may do that.  As it is right now it wont happen.  Im glad that this team isnt as instant gratification  oriented as a lot of its fan base.  Hopefully we have drafted our own and will likely need to sign them.

 

 

The team will need, at some point, to add an elite pass rusher as Hughes ages. I am less convinced than others that they are suddenly going to get big production from Murphy but we will see. But like you I don't think now is the right time. I want to know this team is really close before throwing assets at proven difference makers. Until that point they should continue to be judicious in their draft and develop strategy. 

[jwhit34]

On 7/29/2019 at 1:04 PM, jwhit34 said:

Trade History

Beane has made trades during the preseason both years. In '17 it was Watkins, Darby and Ragland but also the Kevon Seymour for Kaelin Clay and a pick (turned into Tommy Sweeney). Last year he dealt AJ McCarron but also did the ill-fated Corey Coleman deal. 

 

Trade and Draft Strategy

Beane isn't shy about making trades and moving around at the draft. He has mostly moved up and by acquiring mid-late round picks has had the ammunition to move up a modest amount of slots to get guys they seem to like (Cody Ford, Dawson Knox this year) or hang onto them and pick more players. 

 

Roster Building

While you want to have your best 53 players on the roster, the reality is that the bottom of the roster (10-13) are for NFL worthy developmental players that would not clear waivers so they can't be on the practice squad (5-7) and some special teams players. Even with key subs you have about 17 players play offense (4 WR, 3 TE, 5 OL, 4 RB/FB, 1 QB), 18 on defense (8 DL, 3-4 LBs, 6-7 DBs) and 4 specialists (P, K, long snapper, return specialist) on game days from your top 40 (the rest of special teams comes from the aforementioned bottom 10-13). 

 

With the draft picks and free agents, you can make a case that there is an oversupply of NFL caliber players at DB, OL and WR (and adequate depth at RB, QB and DL). Could Beane swing deals with the surplus (and was that part of the plan all along) if they are happy with developmental players taking the last spot in some of those positions?  DBs and WRs are good examples:

• For WRs, Brown, Beasley and Jones seem locked in as top 3, Roberts is on the team as a kick/punt returner but may have WR value. Do they like McCloud or McKenzie enough to trade Foster or Jones? Could a WR desperate team (Giants?) trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for one of them? 
• For DBs,  specifically CBs, do they have 5 legit starter-worthy players (White, Wallace, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Gaines)? Is Pitts good enough as an emergency fill in to trade one of those 5? What about Siran Neal as the big nickel?

 

Even O-line, could some team take Bodine? Waddle? I won't suggest Ducasse on this board. 

 

So, I could see Beane trading a few players at the end of pre-season and picking up an extra 3 or so picks. Keep in mind it wouldn't be a guy they were cutting teams figure that out, but some of the young talent may be of interest. Example: if the interior OL is good with Spain, Morse, Feliciano and Long and a young guy like Boettger shows okay to be the inactive OL on game day could they trade Teller? 

 

I think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy. He wants to build through the draft, retain their own, and stay out of cap jail. Always having 8-10 picks and the ability to get guys you really feel strongly about allows you to do that. Most of all it seems like he has a comprehensive strategy which is refreshing.

 

So not 100% on the mark but general idea is happening (see bolded). 

[Punching Bag]

yes it was.

[BuffAlone]

On 7/29/2019 at 1:04 PM, jwhit34 said:

Trade History

Beane has made trades during the preseason both years. In '17 it was Watkins, Darby and Ragland but also the Kevon Seymour for Kaelin Clay and a pick (turned into Tommy Sweeney). Last year he dealt AJ McCarron but also did the ill-fated Corey Coleman deal. 

 

Trade and Draft Strategy

Beane isn't shy about making trades and moving around at the draft. He has mostly moved up and by acquiring mid-late round picks has had the ammunition to move up a modest amount of slots to get guys they seem to like (Cody Ford, Dawson Knox this year) or hang onto them and pick more players. 

 

Roster Building

While you want to have your best 53 players on the roster, the reality is that the bottom of the roster (10-13) are for NFL worthy developmental players that would not clear waivers so they can't be on the practice squad (5-7) and some special teams players. Even with key subs you have about 17 players play offense (4 WR, 3 TE, 5 OL, 4 RB/FB, 1 QB), 18 on defense (8 DL, 3-4 LBs, 6-7 DBs) and 4 specialists (P, K, long snapper, return specialist) on game days from your top 40 (the rest of special teams comes from the aforementioned bottom 10-13). 

 

With the draft picks and free agents, you can make a case that there is an oversupply of NFL caliber players at DB, OL and WR (and adequate depth at RB, QB and DL). Could Beane swing deals with the surplus (and was that part of the plan all along) if they are happy with developmental players taking the last spot in some of those positions?  DBs and WRs are good examples:

• For WRs, Brown, Beasley and Jones seem locked in as top 3, Roberts is on the team as a kick/punt returner but may have WR value. Do they like McCloud or McKenzie enough to trade Foster or Jones? Could a WR desperate team (Giants?) trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for one of them? 
• For DBs,  specifically CBs, do they have 5 legit starter-worthy players (White, Wallace, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Gaines)? Is Pitts good enough as an emergency fill in to trade one of those 5? What about Siran Neal as the big nickel?

 

Even O-line, could some team take Bodine? Waddle? I won't suggest Ducasse on this board. 

 

So, I could see Beane trading a few players at the end of pre-season and picking up an extra 3 or so picks. Keep in mind it wouldn't be a guy they were cutting teams figure that out, but some of the young talent may be of interest. Example: if the interior OL is good with Spain, Morse, Feliciano and Long and a young guy like Boettger shows okay to be the inactive OL on game day could they trade Teller? 

 

I think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy. He wants to build through the draft, retain their own, and stay out of cap jail. Always having 8-10 picks and the ability to get guys you really feel strongly about allows you to do that. Most of all it seems like he has a comprehensive strategy which is refreshing.

 

dont think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy...KNOW it! I mean, if you've listened to him at all over 2 years, he's said exactly that time and time again

[CSBill]

Prophetic!

[billsfan_34]

On 7/29/2019 at 1:30 PM, clayboy54 said:

I don't believe that any of the 2nd tier players will have trade value. Teams know many of them will be released anyway and will not give assets to acquire those types of players. Starters on the other hand do have trade value. This is why so many are thinking that Shady may be traded. I don't agree with the premise, but that is indeed possible.

 

IMO, if they're worth giving up something substantial in trade value, we ought to keep them.

Most of the time that is true- however if a guy like Foster hits the street, said team has to compete with a handful of other teams for his services. Sometimes the safe bet is to give up a pick/picks/player or a combination of all. Just some food for thought