If the starters stay healthy will Bills have #1 D in 2019?

[Protocal69]

4 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I didn’t think we were elite last year. Like the posters here so far, that ranking was a byproduct of a crappy, turnover laden offense.

Remember, during our SB run, we were among the worst ranked defenses, due to our point-a-minute offense. Yet Bruce Smith, Biscuit, Talley, Hanson, Odoms, Conan, Jones, etc made great names for themselves with their consistent excellence.

 

I didn’t vote because if our offense improves, the defensive ranking will likely drop. But we have some really good players on D.

You would think a turnover laden offense would put the defense on the field more and then in turn give up more yards and points. So it was a testament to how well the defense played considering that they got no help from the offense to stay fresh

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

The top 5 I want in order is:

Scoring Defense

Turnovers

Sacks

Yards per game

 

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

The top 5 I want in order is:

Scoring Defense

Turnovers

Sacks

Yards per game

 

 

 

#1 in scoring defense would be terrific, but that's a whole-team stat, not one that isolates the defense well. Field position at the start of opponent drives is a massive factor in scoring defense, not to mention that if Allen throws a pick-six somehow that counts against the defense in scoring defense. It's a whole-team stat.

 

Yards per drive is probably the best stat that isolates the defense.

 

I'd put YPG and turnovers at the top, and sacks after that.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

I didn’t think we were elite last year. Like the posters here so far, that ranking was a byproduct of a crappy, turnover laden offense.

Remember, during our SB run, we were among the worst ranked defenses, due to our point-a-minute offense. Yet Bruce Smith, Biscuit, Talley, Hanson, Odoms, Conan, Jones, etc made great names for themselves with their consistent excellence.

 

I didn’t vote because if our offense improves, the defensive ranking will likely drop. But we have some really good players on D.

 

 

Just the opposite. A crappy turnover-laden offense makes it harder for a defense to put up good stats, not easier. The defense will face shorter field behind them and more drives if the offense is bad. A better offense makes it easier on defensive stats, holding the ball and giving the D better field position and fewer drives to defend. There is a bit of an exception if your offense runs a hurryup as we did in the SB days. But the Bills weren't as bad as you remember in those days. They were up and down even facing more drives than most teams and teams throwing more because they were further behind.

 

1990 8th

1991 27th

1992 12th

1993 27th

 

 

IMO we were somewhere between probably 3rd and 6th best on D last year, probably 4th or 5th. Which is damn good.

[Chandler#81]

50 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Just the opposite. A crappy turnover-laden offense makes it harder for a defense to put up good stats, not easier. The defense will face shorter field behind them and more drives if the offense is bad. A better offense makes it easier on defensive stats, holding the ball and giving the D better field position and fewer drives to defend. There is a bit of an exception if your offense runs a hurryup as we did in the SB days. But the Bills weren't as bad as you remember in those days. They were up and down even facing more drives than most teams and teams throwing more because they were further behind.

 

1990 8th

1991 27th

1992 12th

1993 27th

 

 

IMO we were somewhere between probably 3rd and 6th best on D last year, probably 4th or 5th. Which is damn good.

Not necessarily. When a crappy, turnover-laden offense hands the opponent the ball inside their 20 yard line multiple times, the opponent doesn’t have to gain a lot of yards before they score repeatedly. Once the blowout is secure, the team ahead plays vanilla, clock eating offense. I’m sure a couple recent Bills games will bare this out.

2 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

You would think a turnover laden offense would put the defense on the field more and then in turn give up more yards and points. So it was a testament to how well the defense played considering that they got no help from the offense to stay fresh

 

See above

[ComradeKayAdams]

As others have mentioned, I think we're only an elite pass rushing DE and a backup MLB away from being a legitimate candidate (at least on paper) for #1 defense. Two stats that this defense badly needs to improve on are red zone scoring percentage and sacks. I believe we were near the absolute bottom of the league in each.

 

But one thing that's very clear is that Sean McDermott knows how to build a defense. Notice how he has spent a first round pick each year for each level of the defense (DB, LB, DL). And the continuity of having Leslie Frazier for a third consecutive season as DC helps immensely. There are going to be a lot of options in free agency next spring to get that elite pass rushing DE, so I do believe that the Bills will end up with the #1 defense next year. I don't know if these guys can ever approach the standards that Frazier's Bears set in the 1980's, but there is certainly the possibility that McDermott is in the midst of building the best defense in franchise history (better than the '64/'74/'80/'88/'99/'03/'14 squads).

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Not necessarily. When a crappy, turnover-laden offense hands the opponent the ball inside their 20 yard line multiple times, the opponent doesn’t have to gain a lot of yards before they score repeatedly. Once the blowout is secure, the team ahead plays vanilla, clock eating offense. I’m sure a couple recent Bills games will bare this out.

 

See above

 

 

Sorry, man, no. Poor analysis.

 

When you are looking at scoring defense, drives on which a team scores count far far more than any other drive. Seven points is about 2% of the total points scored against you, though one drive is way way less than 1% of the drives faced. Scoring drives count more.

 

But when you are looking at yards, every drive counts the same as every other. Yeah, one drive might start on the opponent's 10. The next might start on the Bills one, 99 yards away. Since each drive counts the same, it's only the average that matters. Yeah, some drives start closer, but other start farther away. Only the average matters, and the average for every team is close. The Bills defensive average was to start on their own 31.36 yard line. The league average was to start three yards further away, on the 28.28 yard line.

 

Again, a crappy turnover-laden offense has very little impact on defensive yards. A ton on points, and very little on yards. If anything it has a bad effect on defensive performance, as the Bills faced the 2nd most drives of any NFL defense last year, due to that crappy offense.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Chandler#81]

12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, man, no. Poor analysis.

 

When you are looking at scoring defense, drives on which a team scores count far far more than any other drive. Seven points is about 2% of the total points scored against you, though one drive is way way less than 1% of the drives faced. Scoring drives count more.

 

But when you are looking at yards, every drive counts the same as every other. Yeah, one drive might start on the opponent's 10. The next might start on the Bills one, 99 yards away. Since each drive counts the same, it's only the average that matters. Yeah, some drives start closer, but other start farther away. Only the average matters, and the average for every team is close. The Bills defensive average was to start on their own 31.36 yard line. The league average was to start three yards further away, on the 28.28 yard line.

 

Again, a crappy turnover-laden offense has very little impact on defensive yards. A ton on points, and very little on yards. If anything it has a bad effect on defensive performance, as the Bills faced the 2nd most drives of any NFL defense last year, due to that crappy offense.

Your 1st paragraph makes no sense. The 2nd paragraph is basically what I said, just stranger wording. 3rd paragraph goes to my poor analysis as well. It’s easier to stop an offense whose concentrating more on the clock ticking to zero than a team trying to score. These “drives” are anything but game changers. I think we’re talking about the same thing, except for the 1st paragraph. 

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I honestly hope not.  The only way they will be #1 in defense is if the opposing teams are running out the clock in the 4th quarter.  Ranking is based on yards per game which is a dumb metric for a defense.  I wouldn't care if the are 10-15 in yards if they are top 3 in scoring or forced turnovers.  And that only happens if they find a pass rush and the offense is putting up lots of points early thereby forcing the opposing team to throw a lot.  

 

I agree the benchmark of yards is not as important as points and turnovers.  I said top 5 based on the yards metric, but am curious we can do better against the run.  Last year we held onto 9th against the run until the you guessed it the Pats game getting gashed for over 170+ yards.  They crushed us up the middle.  Maybe with Oliver we can penetrate up the middle better.

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Where will the Bills D end up if the starters remain healthy?

 

 

To me the first question is by what measure?  Yards/points/plays/3 rd down efficiency?  

 

I think the Bills will field an excellent defense by most of those measures - probably top 5 in many categories and that is how I voted.  

 

I don’t think they are quite physical enough to be #1 across most categories.  I think they will field a top flight pass defense and a good run defense.  If the special teams and offense help out - then they could be great.

 

 

[Victory Formation]

I'm guessing top 10. We lack a pass rush. I don't believe Hughes and Murphy alone can get it done and Oliver is but a rookie. Top 10 though for sure unless we get hit with injuries.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

We have the depth and talent on defense to be a power house. It all depends on a few rookies and 2nd year players but if we stay healthy we have a good shot at it.

[Protocal69]

6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Not necessarily. When a crappy, turnover-laden offense hands the opponent the ball inside their 20 yard line multiple times, the opponent doesn’t have to gain a lot of yards before they score repeatedly. Once the blowout is secure, the team ahead plays vanilla, clock eating offense. I’m sure a couple recent Bills games will bare this out.

 

See above

Worst Offenses 2018

 

Arizona
Miami
Buffalo*
Ny Jets
Washington
Jacksonville*
Cincinnati
Tennessee
Detroit
Oakland
 

Most Giveaways:

 

Tampa Bay: 35
Buffalo: 32*
San Francisco: 32
Ny Jets :30
Jacksonville: 29*
Arizona: 28
Pittsburgh: 26
Chicago: 24
Cleveland: 24
Indianapolis: 24

 

Best Defenses ( Yards Allowed)

Baltimore
Buffalo*
Chicago
Minnesota
Jacksonville*
Pittsburgh
Dallas
Tennessee
Los Angeles Chargers
Detroit

 

 

 

******* The only teams to in the top 10 of both Worst Offense, Most Turnovers, and Best Defenses( Yards Allowed) is the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars so your argument does not hold much weight.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Protocal69

[Putin]

I voted top 5 , but it wouldn’t surprise me if we are # 1 by the mid season , Hopefully our offense will start clicking and will be able to move the chains and keep our D fresh !!!

Go Bills !!! 

[Dopey]

8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

I didn’t think we were elite last year. Like the posters here so far, that ranking was a byproduct of a crappy, turnover laden offense.

Remember, during our SB run, we were among the worst ranked defenses, due to our point-a-minute offense. Yet Bruce Smith, Biscuit, Talley, Hanson, Odoms, Conan, Jones, etc made great names for themselves with their consistent excellence.

 

I didn’t vote because if our offense improves, the defensive ranking will likely drop. But we have some really good players on D.

I don't think we will be barn burners on offense , so I kind of took a different route to how the offense will affect the defense. If the offense improves by way of sustained drives, no turnovers and winning the filed position game, our defense will benefit from this. I voted top 10

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Where will the Bills D end up if the starters remain healthy?

 

Trick question (kind of) 

Which category?  Total Yards? Total Points allowed?  Total  Rushing Yards?  Total  Passing Yards? 

 

 

The Bills had the #2 defense in the NFL last season.  (Baltimore #1) 

Top 5 but not #1

would be my cautious guess 

[Dopey]

26 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

Worst Offenses 2018

 

Arizona
Miami
Buffalo*
Ny Jets
Washington
Jacksonville*
Cincinnati
Tennessee
Detroit
Oakland
 

Most Giveaways:

 

Tampa Bay: 35
Buffalo: 32*
San Francisco: 32
Ny Jets :30
Jacksonville: 29*
Arizona: 28
Pittsburgh: 26
Chicago: 24
Cleveland: 24
Indianapolis: 24

 

Best Defenses ( Yards Allowed)

Baltimore
Buffalo*
Chicago
Minnesota
Jacksonville*
Pittsburgh
Dallas
Tennessee
Los Angeles Chargers
Detroit

 

 

 

******* The only team to in the top 10 of both Worst Offense, Most Turnovers, and Best Defenses( Yards Allowed) is the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars so your argument does not hold much weight.

With all due respect, Chandler#81 did mention turnovers inside the 20 and how that would lead to more scores by opponents quickly and without the need to accumulate a ton of yards, yet you give stats of a top 10 defense in terms of YARDS ALLOWED(not even his argument). 

[Chandler#81]

18 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I don't think we will be barn burners on offense , so I kind of took a different route to how the offense will affect the defense. If the offense improves by way of sustained drives, no turnovers and winning the filed position game, our defense will benefit from this. I voted top 10

Sure, fair enough. I see a significant change in football logic, as a byproduct of the now pass happy style of play. 2 seasons ago, only 1 Top 10 Defensive team even made the playoffs. We flirted with #1 overall throughout last season, ending up #2 by a few yards - yet we SUCKED. League worst Special Teams, zero running game sans a rookie QB and WRs you wouldn’t chose in a pick up game. Derick Anderson and Pickpeterman? Fuggetaboutit. On occasion, our DL was a sieve vs the run and pass rush was a joke. Garnering 6 wins out of that apocalypse was a miracle. Yes, very young players with huge upside got valuable reps. The DBs & LBs now appear formidable and Josh Allen could become truly great. But even teams with likely HOF defenders like the Rams can surrender 50 points in a game. 

My take is League rankings mean squat anymore. Does your whole team buy into a particular concept or ‘process’? Can one aspect lean on the other as situations arise? I don’t care if we’re middle of the pack on both sides. I care that we win -any way imaginable.

[Dopey]

14 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Sure, fair enough. I see a significant change in football logic, as a byproduct of the now pass happy style of play. 2 seasons ago, only 1 Top 10 Defensive team even made the playoffs. We flirted with #1 overall throughout last season, ending up #2 by a few yards - yet we SUCKED. League worst Special Teams, zero running game sans a rookie QB and WRs you wouldn’t chose in a pick up game. Derick Anderson and Pickpeterman? Fuggetaboutit. On occasion, our DL was a sieve vs the run and pass rush was a joke. Garnering 6 wins out of that apocalypse was a miracle. Yes, very young players with huge upside got valuable reps. The DBs & LBs now appear formidable and Josh Allen could become truly great. But even teams with likely HOF defenders like the Rams can surrender 50 points in a game. 

My take is League rankings mean squat anymore. Does your whole team buy into a particular concept or ‘process’? Can one aspect lean on the other as situations arise? I don’t care if we’re middle of the pack on both sides. I care that we win -any way imaginable.

Agreed. Now if our ST can help out...

[colin]

while not a perfect measure, ypg is the best single measure of a defense.  bad special teams and offense can put the d in tough spots wrt scoring, as the other team won't have to march down the field to score.  also, a great O which scores on every drive and has a solid special teams which puts the opponent around the 25 for the start of every drive will reduce the number of points scored due to the fact that the opponents have to go so far to score, or even be in field goal range.

 

Football is not new and there is a good reason why D has always been ranked by YPG

 

red zone D, turnovers forced, sacks, yards per play, yards per drive, all of those should generally be considered (along with #1 mentioned above) prior to PPG allowed in assessing a D.  clearly PPG is what matters at the end, but since the opponents D and special teams can score, and put the D in a bad position, it's more of a team stat and less of a direct measure of the D.

 

all that said, i expect our D to be better in most if not all categories compared to last year, and an improvement on O and special teams maybe enough with the D being basically flat to last year to punch us up to number one statistically.