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BBFS - 8 Wins sounds about right to me


Virgil

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1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

8-8 would be a huge disappointment three years in to a new regime with the schedule they have.  Just start 2-0 and 10 wins is very possible

 

I fully expect them to start 2-0 and still see 8-8.  

 

Hence, the 5-2 references. 

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6 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

I'm just going by last year and what would be considered blowout losses , I mean it's really no mystery! You're talking like you have no clue why we got blown out and it took me all but 5 minutes to tell you why. 

 

Simply put - Extreme dysfunction at the QB position . Nate Peterman ,Derek Anderson , extremely raw Josh Allen and oh yeah, an absolutely terrible OL and oh yeah , absolutely terrible WR . Once we cut ties with Holmes, Benjamin and Kerley , guess what ? No more blow outs! Not one. And that's with a raw rookies behind a joke of an OL throwing to an UDFA rookie , Zay and McKenzie who we got like week 10!

 

The Bears blowout they had 2 defensive TD , playing against Nate Peterman! Again, it's not a mystery as to why the blowouts occurred. Kinda common sense. Unfortunately we were rebuilding and were stuck with awful OL and WR but that all changed this off season. I wouldn't worry to much about blowouts and McDermott anymore. Again- NATE PETERMAN , Derek Anderson and a way to raw rookie Josh Allen prior to his injury. No blowouts when Josh returned. I'd bet there aren't any this year. I'm that confident in this coaching

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Virgil - I wouldn’t roast you as you provide good feedback, but I think we can win 1 or 2 of you’re stated losses.  We have to if we want to be considered for the playoffs.  I think we can get to 9-7, and with luck 10-6.  This line will be completely different which should improve the run game, and the passing attack.  Allen shouldn’t be a deer in the headlights like the beginning of last season.  Our defense will most likely be even better with a couple of key acquisitions.

 

It’s all speculation now so let’s have fun and see how it lays out.  Like every year, I won’t go negative nelly until November and we look horrible.  September is key.

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9 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

I love your "10 things posts" but you are dead to me now......Im headed to my safe corner to be alone.

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31 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not to get overly picky but the Browns game is in Cleveland. 

 

And my OCD has now fixed it 

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I'm just going by last year and what would be considered blowout losses , I mean it's really no mystery! You're talking like you have no clue why we got blown out and it took me all but 5 minutes to tell you why. 

 

Simply put - Extreme dysfunction at the QB position . Nate Peterman ,Derek Anderson , extremely raw Josh Allen and oh yeah, an absolutely terrible OL and oh yeah , absolutely terrible WR . Once we cut ties with Holmes, Benjamin and Kerley , guess what ? No more blow outs! Not one. And that's with a raw rookies behind a joke of an OL throwing to an UDFA rookie , Zay and McKenzie who we got like week 10!

 

The Bears blowout they had 2 defensive TD , playing against Nate Peterman! Again, it's not a mystery as to why the blowouts occurred. Kinda common sense. Unfortunately we were rebuilding and were stuck with awful OL and WR but that all changed this off season. I wouldn't worry to much about blowouts and McDermott anymore. Again- NATE PETERMAN , Derek Anderson and a way to raw rookie Josh Allen prior to his injury. No blowouts when Josh returned. I'd bet there aren't any this year. I'm that confident in this coaching

 

All valid points, but our defense was equally to blame for some as well.  Remember when the Saints didn’t even pass the ball in the second half for some ridiculous amount of consecutive times?  

 

Yes, the offensive failed to score in most of those games, but the defense laid an egg too at times 

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57 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

So you think this team is one game worse than the 2017 playoff team???? REALLY? People live on the past to predict the future, please! The Bills have a QB now the skies the limit.

 

Yes, it sounds dumb.  But like the title says and repeated multiple times in the post, this is BBFB and Billsy based.  

 

It’s who we’ve been for two decades until we aren’t. 

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Virgil - I wouldn’t roast you as you provide good feedback, but I think we can win 1 or 2 of you’re stated losses.  We have to if we want to be considered for the playoffs.  I think we can get to 9-7, and with luck 10-6.  This line will be completely different which should improve the run game, and the passing attack.  Allen shouldn’t be a deer in the headlights like the beginning of last season.  Our defense will most likely be even better with a couple of key acquisitions.

 

It’s all speculation now so let’s have fun and see how it lays out.  Like every year, I won’t go negative nelly until November and we look horrible.  September is key.

 

I think we can too.  I think we are capable of winning 12 games honestly.  But I only see 8 for the reasons listed 

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10 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

 

 

It's real simple to me why we are in for a huge let down season...

 

Las Vegas says so. 

 

Those guys can see into the future. 

 

5-11

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Just now, McBean said:

 

 

It's real simple to me why we are in for a huge let down season...

 

Las Vegas says so. 

 

Those guys can see into the future. 

 

5-11

 

Even I think that’s BS and can’t understand how they think that 

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10 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

 

 

Screw you, Virg, on making complete and reasonable sense.  ?

 

Of course, JK, brother.

 

I feel you...especially the apex of the feel being the 5-2 starts.  Get me to 6-3 before I really start to believe, even though it is one more in each column.  Too many memories of seeing 5-2, become 5-4 and then worse.

 

Look, I've been saying it for awhile and I think a guy on NFL radio agreed with me, even though I am generally unknown to everyone, everywhere other than for being extremely thin and good looking*.  That is I believe the floor for this team is 8-8.  I think if Josh Allen makes no improvement whatsoever over last year, they are 8-8.  

 

After the debacle that was the first two games, if you remove the Patriots games (i know, I know, but just hang with me) this team was 6-6 and they were missing their rookie starting QB for 40% (1-3) of that time.  

 

I think that if nothing tragic happens this team is 9-7 and their drive and coaching (intangibles at this time) could get them higher to 10-6.

 

However, I recently told a friend I'm feeling 11-5 in my bones.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

*  This may be a lie.

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