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DaBillsFanSince1973

State of the Franchise: Bills viable playoff contenders in 2019

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1 hour ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

They did, and last year he was beyond a doubt our best reciever. Just watching the cowgirls quite a bit over the last 2-3 years (The  GM of my store thinks Jerruh is Christ reincarnate, so i have had to follow them) Beasley is definitely going to light it up and is a better WR than Foster. Foster does not suck, just not as open in tight spaces and not as experienced or shifty. I actually think they will compliment each other when on the field together.

 

Beasley will quickly develop the chemistry, he has had to do it in the past when Romo left and Dak took the reigns.

I have high hopes for Beasley, and I think if Foster is able to develop into a true number 1 X, they will only benefit each other. If that happens, Bills fans will be shouting in the stands for years to come!

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The division is basically already won by the Pats, there is no other reasonable forecast right now, they will coast in with just enough wins to safely take it

 

as such the Bills are reduced to fighting for a Wild Card spot, drastically reducing a playoff chance 

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Good assessment of the 2019 Bills and their expectations. What I'd like to see this year is 10-6 (or better), making the playoffs and most importantly, a win against the Patriots. Losing twice a year, almost every single year to the Patriots is unacceptable. If the Bills want to prove that they are legitimate contenders, then they have to start making serious progress against the Patriots.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Sig1Hunter said:

I have high hopes for Beasley, and I think if Foster is able to develop into a true number 1 X, they will only benefit each other. If that happens, Bills fans will be shouting in the stands for years to come!

I just want a true number 1, I dont care if it is the f***ing toothfairy.

Edited by MILFHUNTER#518

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I think this article paints a picture of the Bills that most fans around the country aren't prepared to see.  This article describes the Bills as they SHOULD be in 2019.  

 

However, fans everywhere have good reason no to buy it.  Not yet.  Good on paper doesn't mean anything.  Bills have to be good on the field.  They actually have to win three games to be 3-0 when the Pats come to town.  Let's see them win three before we start crowing. 

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2 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

This particular quote needs to expanded on:

 

"So it's fair to say McDermott is getting the most out of his talent. He's almost like a "Top Chef" contestant who is given an egg, a bag of parsley and a bottle of hot sauce to turn into a meal.

 

The dish might not be ready for a Michelin rating just yet, but it's still pretty good."


On the other hand, it is fair to say that Coach McDermott was given  prime beef in Josh Allen and a spoiled piece of chicken in Nate Peterman, and Chef McDermott spent precious months prepping the spoiled chicken rather than begin building his menu around the prime beef.  After tasting the chicken multiple times he finally set it aside and scrambled some eggs which were edible and made us think maybe he can cook"

 

Reminds me of a post I made 7 months ago, that I had to use the search feature to find, but was too relevant to pass up reposting:

 

Well, the best analogy I can give is to consider a chef.

Say you are opening a fine dining restaurant and you hire a guy who went to a great culinary school. You interview him, and he has a great grasp of flavor profiles, building a menu, what's trendy in the culinary world, what's dated, what works well, what doesn't--and you can talk food with this guy for hours. He's green, but you like what you got. 

Now let's say the restaurant hasn't opened yet, so you work with him to build the menu. And wow! This guy GETS IT. You spend late nights going over the menu that you're creating together, talking concepts that other chefs (like McCaron) just don't get. He really blows you away with the way he instantly grasps that when you say "seasonal", you mean apples in the fall and fiddleheads in the spring. The more time that passes, the more you like him.

And what's best? He's there ALL the time. You show up at 6 because the range needs to be repaired, he's there working on the menu. You leave late because you were getting the blinds measured and he's there practicing his souffle.

Now you bring in the line chefs, and you watch him command the line. Are there bumps? Sure. He takes awhile to get his footing under him, but soon enough, everyone from the pastry chef to the sous chef is clicking with him. It looks good.

One last test before you open your doors--a soft debut for friends and family. And he KILLS IT.  Timing is perfect, dishes are on order, meat temps are spot on--everything is clicking. 

This is the point, right here, where Bills fans, in hindsight, think McBeane should have brought in an AppleBees chef JUST IN CASE something went wrong, so the restaurant could stay afloat. And this is the point where Bills fans think McDermott should have spent practice time getting that AppleBees chef up to snuff on the menu, instead of getting ready for opening night.

Now--we obviously know when the restaurant opened, Peterman took a ***** in the deep fryer and served it to the Queen of England. But the only one who should get blamed for that is Peterman. The restaurant owners did all they could.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/213592-why-a-vet-at-the-backup-qb-position-is-so-important/?tab=comments#comment-5651115

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Posted (edited)

Honestly, we really need to make the playoffs.  This is the 3rd year with this regime.

Your QB isn't a rookie anymore and got valuable on field experience last year.

The defense is now built to the blue print McDermott wants.

The offense completely overhauled with vets.  

 

 

Edited by Royale with Cheese

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26 minutes ago, row_33 said:

The division is basically already won by the Pats, there is no other reasonable forecast right now, they will coast in with just enough wins to safely take it

 

as such the Bills are reduced to fighting for a Wild Card spot, drastically reducing a playoff chance 

Sad but probably true...another year that we have to concede to this. Let's just hope the Bills get off to a good start...they absolutely have to...no more  room for regression.

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4 hours ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

The fact that he COMPLETELY overlooks how good our Defense was last year and that it has arguably gotten better this offseason, combined with the fact he thinks Robert Foster is our best wideout makes me a bit skeptical as to how much he actually follows our team.

 

We need to remember that most of these analysts follow all 32, and all they do when they do write ups like this is browse stat sheets and bloviate.  Good quick read, but lets not get ahead of ourselves...

 

He didn't though. 

 

OP didn't quote the whole article, so maybe that's why you missed it.

 

Quote

Use their defense to overtake the Patriots? I'm not going to be the guy who says the the Patriots are done. That won't be me. But if there is a team in the division that could overtake the Patriots in the AFC East, the Bills would be one of my top three choices. (I know what I said.) And the reason why I say that is the Bills' defense. The Bills ranked second in total defense last year (294.1 yards allowed per game). They ranked first in pass defense, thanks in part to Tre'Davious White, who was one of two players with a defensive passer rating below 75.0 (71.8) and two or fewer touchdowns allowed in coverage on 70-plus targets. The other was Brandon Carr.

The team also signed DE Jerry Hughes to a two-year extension. Kind of risky given his age (he'll turn 31 next month), but I'll allow it. He's recorded 42 sacks since joining the Bills in 2013 and pressured the quarterback on 16.2% of his pass rushes in 2018, the highest rate in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.

 

 

 

I have no problem with the Foster comment. He's probably the most athletically gifted, we'll see if he turns into the most productive.

 

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4 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Just had to get a burning tables quip into the article didn't he...

 

Image result for original murdoc macgyver flamethrower gif

59 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Honestly, we really need to make the playoffs.  This is the 3rd year with this regime.

Your QB isn't a rookie anymore and got valuable on field experience last year.

The defense is not built to the blue print McDermott wants.

The offense completely overhauled with vets.  

 

 

 

A straight take by the former teeflebees? What amazing times are these?!

 

Totally agree, BTW. If they don't and there are NOT major injuries, it will be a huge letdown.

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3 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

 

Image result for original murdoc macgyver flamethrower gif

 

A straight take by the former teeflebees? What amazing times are these?!

 

Totally agree, BTW. If they don't and there are NOT major injuries, it will be a huge letdown.

 

Oh you'll get straight takes by me a lot during the season.  I might switch my name back to Teeflebees.

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2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Oh you'll get straight takes by me a lot during the season.  I might switch my name back to Teeflebees.

 

Can't wait! 

Please update us on the lineup of (female) planes on Royale's runway right now......

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19 hours ago, mannc said:

I agree with this, and disagree with the argument that with all these new offensive starters, we need to give McDermott a mulligan for 2019.  The O-line and WR rooms were flat-out awful last year.  Both appear to have been seriously upgraded (especially the O-line) and even if they need some time to get used to playing together, the improvement should be immediate and sustained.  There really were no significant losses other than Kyle Williams and he was replaced by a highly touted top 10 draft pick.  Most importantly, I'm expecting Josh Allen to be greatly improved.  There would really be no excuse for anything worse than 9-7 and at least one win against NE. 

 

Giving mulligans to coaches, players, executives, and even owners is what plenty of homerific Bills fans do in off-season to guard against their predictions not coming to fruition.  It's a like a defensive level of hope if something bad happens and excuses are needed.   

 

The bare minimum for this team is 10-6 and a wild card.  You don't invest the money they have, feature a HC in his 3rd season, give him all those players on defense, and have taken what you hope is the franchise QB to be a mediocre 7-9 win team with that schedule.

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To have an average offense, the Bills need 60 yards a game more than last year.   Where are those yards coming from?

 

If Allen runs less, they will need 70 or 80.  

 

Getting competitive isnt going to be easy.

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53 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

To have an average offense, the Bills need 60 yards a game more than last year.   Where are those yards coming from?

 

If Allen runs less, they will need 70 or 80.  

 

Getting competitive isnt going to be easy.

 

The obvious answer?  The passing game.  The Bills averaged a paltry 193 yards passing last season.  Improvement from Allen and the receivers should easily make up that ground, and I expect the combo of Shady/Gore/Singletary to absorb the rushing yards Allen will hopefully forego.

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The substantial improvement in our Oline will stand out above everything else.  It will allow Allen to continue his "gradual" development. Our D will be top 5 again in yards allowed. And our ST unit will be better.  9-7 is pretty realistic. 

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39 minutes ago, eball said:

 

The obvious answer?  The passing game.  The Bills averaged a paltry 193 yards passing last season.  Improvement from Allen and the receivers should easily make up that ground, and I expect the combo of Shady/Gore/Singletary to absorb the rushing yards Allen will hopefully forego.

That is the obvious answer, along with a shift of rushing yards from Allen back to Shady and the others.   

 

But asking Allen to go from 190 yards a game passing to 290 yards a game is asking him to go from near the bottom of the league to near the top of the league.  That's a big ask.  

 

Point is, it isn't going to be easy to be a playoff team in 2019.   Improving the passing game 100 yards a game is tough.  Maybe improving the passing game 50 yards and the rushing game 50 yards is more likely.  

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, eball said:

 

The obvious answer?  The passing game.  The Bills averaged a paltry 193 yards passing last season.  Improvement from Allen and the receivers should easily make up that ground, and I expect the combo of Shady/Gore/Singletary to absorb the rushing yards Allen will hopefully forego.

I was just about to post something similar. Beasley should be getting open. team that with brown and foster(at his current trajectory) on the outside and i'd say that's good for another 50-60 a game with an improved josh allen….. in theory.

 

the rest, I agree, could be absorbed by HOPEFULLY a better run blocking unit and deep backfield.

 

its all just on paper right now. so who knows. but I think that's all fairly realistic.

 

@Shaw66 …. I don't think that's all that unreasonable. do you?

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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24 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I was just about to post something similar. Beasley should be getting open. team that with brown and foster(at his current trajectory) on the outside and i'd say that's good for another 50-60 a game with an improved josh allen….. in theory.

 

the rest, I agree, could be absorbed by HOPEFULLY a better run blocking unit and deep backfield.

 

its all just on paper right now. so who knows. but I think that's all fairly realistic.

 

@Shaw66 …. I don't think that's all that unreasonable. do you?

Yeah, you've said what I just said in a different way.   50 yards passing, 50 rushing.   In a lot of ways, as someone else said, the key is (1) the offensive line and (2) Allen.   We're all hoping or assuming that the run game will get back to normal this season, and it should.   And 50 more passing yards per game should be doable.  

 

Again, it's all easy to say, but it's a highly competitive league, and anyway you slice it, a 100-yard-per-game move is a big jump to make, and that's only to be average on offense.  

 

One interesting thing about it, when you're talking about improving the offense, is the effect that more first downs has on the offense.  If you can get 50 yards more per game in terms of true improved performance it translates into more than 50 yards per game.   Getting a true additional 50 yards a game will translate into more first downs, probably three or four more a game.  Three or four more first downs translates into nine to twelve additional plays.  At even four yards per play, those additional nine to twelve plays are another 30-50 yards.   I know that seems like funny math, but it's obviously true.  

 

Bills were 27th in the league in first downs.  Three more first downs per game would have made them 16th - average.  So the numbers coincide - get 50 yards better per game, get three more first downs.  Three more first downs gets you nine more plays, and nine more plays gets you another 50 yards.  100 yards makes you around #16 in total yards, just like the downs figures.  

 

What that means is that the offense can be decent if the passing game and rushing game each improve only 25 to 30 yards per game, in terms of actual improvement.  (They'll get another 50 on top of that improvement from getting more first downs.)   That's not an unreasonable target.   

 

Average offense and a top 10 defense and you have a good team. 

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

That is the obvious answer, along with a shift of rushing yards from Allen back to Shady and the others.   

 

But asking Allen to go from 190 yards a game passing to 290 yards a game is asking him to go from near the bottom of the league to near the top of the league.  That's a big ask.  

 

Point is, it isn't going to be easy to be a playoff team in 2019.   Improving the passing game 100 yards a game is tough.  Maybe improving the passing game 50 yards and the rushing game 50 yards is more likely.  

 

You said 60 yards of increased offense, not 100.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, eball said:

 

You said 60 yards of increased offense, not 100.

Obviously, precision isn't my strong suit. 

 

But what I said was 60 yards, plus another 10 to 20 because Allen isn't likely to pile up another 600 yards rushing.  

 

Last season the Bills were 1000 yards short of an average total offense.   That's 60+ yards a game.   Subtract 15 a game from Allen's rushing means you need 75+ new yards per game out of someone.  75, 100, something in that range. 

 

As I said, however, it's doable, because of the effect first downs have.  

Edited by Shaw66

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, you've said what I just said in a different way.   50 yards passing, 50 rushing.   In a lot of ways, as someone else said, the key is (1) the offensive line and (2) Allen.   We're all hoping or assuming that the run game will get back to normal this season, and it should.   And 50 more passing yards per game should be doable.  

 

Again, it's all easy to say, but it's a highly competitive league, and anyway you slice it, a 100-yard-per-game move is a big jump to make, and that's only to be average on offense.  

 

One interesting thing about it, when you're talking about improving the offense, is the effect that more first downs has on the offense.  If you can get 50 yards more per game in terms of true improved performance it translates into more than 50 yards per game.   Getting a true additional 50 yards a game will translate into more first downs, probably three or four more a game.  Three or four more first downs translates into nine to twelve additional plays.  At even four yards per play, those additional nine to twelve plays are another 30-50 yards.   I know that seems like funny math, but it's obviously true.  

 

Bills were 27th in the league in first downs.  Three more first downs per game would have made them 16th - average.  So the numbers coincide - get 50 yards better per game, get three more first downs.  Three more first downs gets you nine more plays, and nine more plays gets you another 50 yards.  100 yards makes you around #16 in total yards, just like the downs figures.  

 

What that means is that the offense can be decent if the passing game and rushing game each improve only 25 to 30 yards per game, in terms of actual improvement.  (They'll get another 50 on top of that improvement from getting more first downs.)   That's not an unreasonable target.   

 

Average offense and a top 10 defense and you have a good team. 

all very reasonable. 100 more yds a game just to be average does seem daunting. but you break it down nicely and IMO it can realistically be done.... i'd add that I think an average offense would make a very good chance of netting a top 5 defense.... in which case they are really "huntin".

Edited by Stank_Nasty

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10 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:


On the other hand, it is fair to say that Coach McDermott was given  prime beef in Josh Allen and a spoiled piece of chicken in Nate Peterman, and Chef McDermott spent precious months prepping the spoiled chicken rather than begin building his menu around the prime beef.  After tasting the chicken multiple times he finally set it aside and scrambled some eggs which were edible and made us think maybe he can cook"

He threw out the chicken.  Your point is what?  That he kept the chicken too long?  Did keeping the chicken ruin last season's meal?  Not at all. 

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4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The substantial improvement in our Oline will stand out above everything else.  It will allow Allen to continue his "gradual" development. Our D will be top 5 again in yards allowed. And our ST unit will be better.  9-7 is pretty realistic. 

...uh oh.... a voice of reason has surfaced........better don the kevlar vest bro......you're crushing the "6-10 Gang"............

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