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YoloinOhio

Melvin Gordon will hold out and demand a trade from LAC without a new contract

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yep

 tough call for Chargers i think.
not for me. i would pay him. Unless they are doing another rebuild already.

who backs up Rivers again lol

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I think the player has almost zero leverage at this point.  I don't see the Chargers throwing Gurley type money at him.  They may very well offer him an extension with significant money but nothing crazy.  As someone already pointed out, he has missed a bunch of games and the team will be somewhat reluctant to break the bank with a ton of guaranteed money.  They have several contracts to deal with next season that will play into this situation.  If he sits for a season, he'll miss out on earnings for this year and will still be looking at the franchise tag in 2020.  If LA lets him walk after 2020, he will be in significantly less demand than Bell was.  He shouldn't count on another team being as dumb as the Jets.

 

The Chargers have some options as well.  There are still some unsigned veteran backs available and there are always a few late cuts in camps around the league.  Ekeler is a decent third down back who could fit with a couple of veterans to make a workable committee.  I don't think LA will panic and cave in for crazy money.

 

It will be best for both sides to reach a deal and I think Gordon deserves a reasonable extension.

 

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16 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

yep

 tough call for Chargers i think.
not for me. i would pay him. Unless they are doing another rebuild already.

who backs up Rivers again lol

 

But in the next few years they have to pay Rivers, Keenan, Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Desmond King, Derwin James, and Hunter Henry...

 

Ekeler behind Gordon hasnt looked bad at all.

 

Do you really tie up $12M/year on a RB?

 

 

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5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But in the next few years they have to pay Rivers, Keenan, Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Desmond King, Derwin James, and Hunter Henry...

 

Ekeler behind Gordon hasnt looked bad at all.

 

Do you really tie up $12M/year on a RB?

 

 

Ekeler hasn’t looked nearly as good when he’s been the main RB (when Gordon was hurt)

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He might be able to squeak out a deal closer to 40 million over 4 years with +25 guaranteed. 

 

The only issue is that (imo) it is risky to tie up significant amounts of guaranteed $$ in a RB because they get hit so often.  I have no idea if RBs are the most statistically prone to injury (kinda feels like DBs are at the top and OL at the bottom), but they definitely take the most pounding.  

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Do you really tie up $12M/year on a RB?

Only if you have more than one season as a 2000 yards from scrimmage RB and are 25 or younger.

Edited by I am the egg man

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8 hours ago, dneveu said:

Considering most running backs really only get 2 contracts - and he's averaged about 1200 total yards and 10 TDs per year.  I don't really blame him.  

 

Hard to determine his value - he's not gurley or bell, but he's also 26 and if he plays out this year he's subject to a tag year - thats 11 million in 2019.  Assuming he plays well this year and gets tagged next year he'd make approximately 16-17 million.  He's now 28 - the team will have drafted his replacement and "his best days are behind him" so he ends up with a modest mark ingram style deal (3yr 15 mil 6 guaranteed).  He probably plays out 2 and makes 10.  So he made 26 million - if he plays well and doesnt get hurt.

 

He signs a big deal now in the realm of the bell 4 and 50 - he gets 25ish guaranteed at signing.  If he plays well he probably makes more of that 50, or signs a 2nd deal when he gets cut - if he doesn't play well (or gets hurt) he still makes the same 26 he would have made by playing out his 5th year option/tag.

 

From a business perspective running backs kind of have to be selfish...

 

This is a great level headed response. The way the league, correctly, has turned towards younger rb's on rookie contracts he almost has to hold out now to maximize his value. If he tears an ACL or something he's not getting 5 mil as a free agent. 

 

Hold outs really don't bother me in the NFL anymore. They play the most physical sport, (could argue hockey is too) and they don't have guaranteed contracts. Teams will dump you at the most opportune time. Their is so much money in that league, and they beg for handouts on stadiums. I'm always happy when a player gets paid if it's not putting the Bills in a bad cap spot.

 

Gordon seems like a good guy, good player, doesn't get in trouble. Hope he gets paid.

5 hours ago, Capco said:

He might be able to squeak out a deal closer to 40 million over 4 years with +25 guaranteed. 

 

The only issue is that (imo) it is risky to tie up significant amounts of guaranteed $$ in a RB because they get hit so often.  I have no idea if RBs are the most statistically prone to injury (kinda feels like DBs are at the top and OL at the bottom), but they definitely take the most pounding.  

 

I agree, I think what goes on with RB's is they rely so much on their physical attributes that decline so quickly. I think speed and agility go quicker than strength and technique. And those two attributes can be impacted by an injury more in my opinion. I agree though, OL's seem to get hurt a lot. It's a dirty job, but I think the injury once they recover impacts performance less. Wood and Levitre both had bad injuries, and rebounded well. At least I think levitre had a bad injury, I could be incorrect now that i think about it.

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9 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Rivers is also on the final year of his deal. 

You mean final season of his career?

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15 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

You mean final season of his career?

 

Yea I didn't really get that either. I like Rivers, and they probably should have done more to address the future, but idk about making him a priority over younger players.

 

Even considering the importance of his position and how the RB is valued now. I'm sure they can make it work. Rivers seems like a guy who wants a championship, if he values Gordon I think he would take into consideration his needs when it comes to what is probably his last contract if he re-ups.

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9 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Makes you wonder how much players know about the agents strategy before it's put in place... 

 

Or says he just didn’t want to talk about it with a random reporter at an awards show 

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This is why 2 or 3 complementary backs are better in my opinion.  One holdout does not ruin season or financial spreadsheet.

Trading for him would be a big mistake.

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9 hours ago, Limeaid said:

This is why 2 or 3 complementary backs are better in my opinion.  One holdout does not ruin season or financial spreadsheet.

Trading for him would be a big mistake.

I would agree. No reason to give up picks for him and then signing him to a big extension. If they value him enough they can target him next year in free agency if he sits out, although I wouldn’t like that either. He’s had real issues staying healthy since being in the league. 

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21 hours ago, dneveu said:

Considering most running backs really only get 2 contracts - and he's averaged about 1200 total yards and 10 TDs per year.  I don't really blame him.  

 

Hard to determine his value - he's not gurley or bell, but he's also 26 and if he plays out this year he's subject to a tag year - thats 11 million in 2019.  Assuming he plays well this year and gets tagged next year he'd make approximately 16-17 million.  He's now 28 - the team will have drafted his replacement and "his best days are behind him" so he ends up with a modest mark ingram style deal (3yr 15 mil 6 guaranteed).  He probably plays out 2 and makes 10.  So he made 26 million - if he plays well and doesnt get hurt.

 

He signs a big deal now in the realm of the bell 4 and 50 - he gets 25ish guaranteed at signing.  If he plays well he probably makes more of that 50, or signs a 2nd deal when he gets cut - if he doesn't play well (or gets hurt) he still makes the same 26 he would have made by playing out his 5th year option/tag.

 

From a business perspective running backs kind of have to be selfish...

He's TJ Yeldon with dreadlocks.

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18 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

yep

 tough call for Chargers i think.
not for me. i would pay him. Unless they are doing another rebuild already.

who backs up Rivers again lol

 

Everyone has a full 90 right now - its kind of hard to find trade partners when teams have like 7 running backs a piece.  Pittsburgh and KC look like good fits, but LA isn't stupid enough to trade to afc contenders.  Gonna have to wait to see if some players get injured.  Their depth is OK, but if they make a move i'd try and grab someone like duke johnson to play 1b if ekeler becomes the full time starter.

28 minutes ago, Billzfan23 said:

He's TJ Yeldon with dreadlocks.

 

Before last year i'd agree, but he was pretty good last year. 

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21 hours ago, Logic said:

I'm over paying top dollar for running backs. 

Draft a few of them between rounds 1-5, keep them through their rookie deals, and then let them walk and repeat process.

I really don't see ANY consistently great NFL franchises paying big money to running backs these days.

I think you pay elite players regardless of position

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13 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

You mean final season of his career?

 

He's got another few years in him if he wants to keep playing, and the Chargers certainly dont have any better options lined up currently. I think they bring him back on a 3yr/$75M deal. And I'd personally put that money towards Rivers than any RB.

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35 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I think you pay elite players regardless of position

 

How "elite" is Gordon though? Shady has better numbers than him over the last 4 years.

 

I'd pay Gordon, but not more than $10M/year. Maybe 4/$34M, fully guaranteed, just to seal the deal. 😳

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51 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Everyone has a full 90 right now - its kind of hard to find trade partners when teams have like 7 running backs a piece.  Pittsburgh and KC look like good fits, but LA isn't stupid enough to trade to afc contenders.  Gonna have to wait to see if some players get injured.  Their depth is OK, but if they make a move i'd try and grab someone like duke johnson to play 1b if ekeler becomes the full time starter.

 

Before last year i'd agree, but he was pretty good last year. 

Plus the Raiders went first round running back, so they are set for a while

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23 hours ago, aristocrat said:

Rivers is also on the final year of his deal. 

Rivers seems to be on the last legs of his career- arm strength had really looked diminished down the stretch last year.

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1 hour ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I think you pay elite players regardless of position

the problem with this is that RB rarely survive long enough to make it a good investment. i would agree except for RB because the OL is such a huge factor in the success of backs.

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I wonder if LeVeon Bell wishes he could have back the $14 million or so he left on the table last year? But he showed them! 

 

I was all for letting Bruce Smith sit out when he wanted a new contract.....right after he got a new contract. You can probably guess how I feel about Melvin Gordon. He’s got a contract. Play, or don’t. Those are the options. 

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