The myth of the sophomore QB slump

[Nextmanup]

When the OP writes that he would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen, does he base this on anything other than simply being a Bills fan?

 

 

[row_33]

5 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

He doesn't have to learn it. You saw last year he stayed in the pocket as long as the poor guy could. Time he took bad hits was him sitting there trying to find a guy open. Crazy his two worst hits camen in the pocket, were both completions. The one in Houston that took him out of the game, and the one I thought he was going to get killed in the Jags game when he threw the amazing TD pass to Foster.

 

he ran for his life faster than Tyrod

 

that's understandable for a rook,

 

he is going to get righteously clocked early in the season as teams KNOW he runs for his life very quickly

 

 

[Boca BIlls]

39 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

he ran for his life faster than Tyrod

 

that's understandable for a rook,

 

he is going to get righteously clocked early in the season as teams KNOW he runs for his life very quickly

 

 

Tyrod had an offensive line... Allen didn't even have a starting center.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

When the OP writes that he would not be expecting a sophomore slump from Josh Allen, does he base this on anything other than simply being a Bills fan?

 

 

Yes I base this on 26+ years of coaching and scouting and research

 

I HATED the Allen pick on draft night. I said I was going to drive my car off a bridge

 

I thought he had tremendous potential but wanted a more polished QB

 

But I am not stuck in the past.. 

 

I reevaluate all the time and I saw a MARKED improvement in post injury Josh from pre injury

 

He was more confident, decisive and accurate. I believe the arrow is pointing up and will continue that way this season

[JESSEFEFFER]

On ‎6‎/‎27‎/‎2019 at 5:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.)  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

This tweet is of a similar theme, just presented in terms of a year 1 vs. year 2 win%.  Betting the over on the 6.5 over/under bet looks historically solid and there is no trend of a sophomore slump for highly drafted QBs in their 2nd year.  

 

 

 

Warren Sharp

 

✔ @SharpFootball

 

 

As we see Josh Allen deal after watching Sam Darnold dominate last night, a reminder:

Top-15 draft pick QB since 2012:
• As rookies: 45-70 (39%)
• In year two: 97-56 (63%)

Increased record is the result of better stats: higher YPA, better TD:INT ratio, completion rate & rtg.

 

362

7:40 PM - Aug 16, 2019

Twitter Ads info and privacy

 

80 people are talking about this

[JESSEFEFFER]

I could be wrong, but both of these would suggest that a 3 or 4 win improvement is a standard expectation for the team that starts a 2nd year QB that meets the criteria-- high draft pick (top 15.)  Assuming injury doesn't play into this, it might be a bad sign for said QBs future if his team doesn't show that kind of improvement from year 1 to year 2.

[Big Turk]

On 6/27/2019 at 5:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

I originally did this in consideration of the 6.5 over/under line for the Bills season but it also illustrates an important idea opposed to the myth to which you refer.  Big changes in win totals for teams having a starting QB  going into year 2 on their rookie deal are trending.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.  The highly drafted QBs almost always play in year 1 but teams do not fully prepare them to do so.  It's like they are afraid to let the veterans on the team see the starting job handed to a rookie without them "earning" it, therefore the foolish effort to give the Petermans and McCarron's of the NFL the bulk of the reps.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.  The entire offseason, usually within the same offense as year 1, gives them many additional months to hone their craft.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game (bolded names in the table.)  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  That's 8 of 14 (excluding EJ) with at least a 3 game improvement and 7 of 14 with a 4 or more win improvement.  So screw the sophomore jinx crap and dare to think big.  A 4 game improvement gets the Bills in the playoffs and 5 or more threatens the Patriots for the divison.  These kinds of improvements have been happening almost every year since the current CBA was in place.  Why not the Bills in 2019?

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

I agree and I think McDermott is a damn good coach who will potentially get coach of the year considerations this year.

Edited August 19, 2019 by matter2003

[Chandler#81]

On 6/27/2019 at 5:57 PM, njbuff said:

The biggest benefit for Allen is that he will be in the same system going into his second year.

 

And he did alright as a rookie, considering the circumstances surrounding him last year, his rookie year.

For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. 

 

Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha!

Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha!

[JESSEFEFFER]

42 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. 

 

Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha!

Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha!

 

This is a trust the process problem and result.  If you want to make the rookie QB earn his spot in the pecking order (process) he has to compete with at least one other.  If his competing with two others, then they are not doing everything they can to get the rookie prepared to play (problem.)  I think the mistake that Beane acknowledged was not getting Derek Anderson in the room when they knew McCarron was being cut.

 

Allowing the rookie QB to grow through even more adversity is the process result.

 

If they had started Josh from the beginning and he struggled through games like he did with SD and GB, the rest of the players would be thinking/saying why not play Peterman?  He looked great in practice and preseason.  He gives us a better chance to win.  As it played out, when Josh struggled no one was thinking that.  That is a great process result, imo.

[eball]

31 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

For me, Allen starting so many games last year is the best thing that could have happened by a team in total turmoil at the position. Much has been written how McBeane screwed up EVERYTHING by trading away McCarron and handing the reins to Pickpeterman. Josh wasn’t supposed to see the field all year, relegated to 3rd string reps in Camp. Obviously, he flashed A LOT, but also exposed a number of deficiencies in his game that wouldn’t have been seen otherwise until this year. Thus, he was able to work hard on these aspects and his growth into the teams leader was stepped up significantly. 

 

Did McBeane screw the pooch with the QB debacle last season? YouBetCha!

Is the team in a far better position this year because of it. YouBetCha!

 

The only good thing you can say about how the QB room was managed last season is that they made sure there were no unreasonable expectations for Allen.  I agree that looking back, all of the experience he gained last season is invaluable, and I do think Josh will be farther along entering this season than if he had held a clipboard all of last year.

[DJB]

On 6/27/2019 at 2:18 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

Nice work on the graph so thanks for that.

 

Looking at it it appears that in my estimation to be considered a “franchise” QB the second year wins benchmark looks like 10 wins. 

 

The only anomaly appears to be Dalton but he also had one of the highest win marks year one indicating a strong Bengals team regardless. 

 

Newton is the other exception to the rule if you consider him a franchise guy as he didn’t meet the ten win benchmark year two. Personally I don’t as he is pretty terrible at throwing the ball and more running QB than throwing one. 

 

Ten wins by Allen this year will be huge and hopefully cement himself as a franchise QB.

Edited August 19, 2019 by DJB

[TigerJ]

The theory is that defensive coordinators have no tape on rookie QBs and that makes it harder to defend against their strengths or take advantage of their weaknesses.  That's probably a dubious theory to begin with because a rookie QB would have to be really amazing in some area to throw a defensive coordinator that much or really terrible in others to enable a DC to neutralize him.  Anyway, by their second year, there is ample tape on a QB so DCs are going to be able to more effectively game plan.  I don't think many believe it's typical for a QB to get worse in his sophomore campaign.  

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen dead last in PFF’s 2019 NFL starting quarterback rankings

 

Like Rosen, Allen had a rough supporting cast as a rookie, though his uneven play resembled what he showed at Wyoming. He finished with the No. 25 overall grade at 65.3, showing off the expected big arm that led to the No. 12 percentage of big-time throws, but also the poor decision-making and inaccuracy that led to a No. 30 ranking at avoiding turnover-worthy plays. There are similarities to Lamar Jackson as they both have throw-for-throw accuracy concerns (Allen ranked 33rd out of 35 qualifiers after ranking poorly in college), but there are avenues for future success. Allen’s best bet is continuing to make the big plays down the field while complementing with the rushing ability that saw him rush for a league-high 508 yards on scrambles while posting the No. 4 rushing grade among quarterbacks, at 81.4. A new group of playmakers may give Allen a few more open throws to help with the accuracy issues, and he looks like a quarterback who will struggle with week-to-week consistency but will put together monster stretches of play that will make life difficult on opposing defenses.

Edited August 19, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Ralonzo]

 

8 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Pffffff...

 

 

So, Rosen is dead last statistically in 2018 and showed nothing to give us hope. But we'll put him ahead of Allen who actually charted some big-play ability behind just about as lousy an OL and who can hurt you with his legs which is why we ranked Lamar so much higher than either.

[JESSEFEFFER]

This is the product of one writer for PFF but it is odd that PFF (I think it was them) had Josh as their #14 over the last half of the season.  I just don't see how having him in a group with Keenum and Flacco makes any sense.

[jletha]

On 6/28/2019 at 2:56 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

He helped 2 qbs who weren’t highly thought of (they won’t have been at NDSU and Wyoming if they were) and helped them develop into top 10 picks.  I’d argue that is the definition of good coaching.  

 

Hopefully after this year, we can stop with all the excuse making for Allen, right?

Well Carson Wentz wasnt even the starter when Craig Bohl was the coach so while Im sure he had a hand in developing him, Carson did the majority of his developing on his own/after he left for Wyoming. Allen was developed under him though but everyone agreed that Josh was extremely raw as a passer and his main draw was his high ceiling because of his size, athleticiscm and arm strength, none of that is a product of coaching. So Im not gonna anoint Craig Bohl as some QB magician. I think its probably coincidence more than anything. 

 

Look at Lincoln Riley. He just developed two back-to-back #1 overall picks.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

34 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

So, Rosen is dead last statistically in 2018 and showed nothing to give us hope. But we'll put him ahead of Allen who actually charted some big-play ability behind just about as lousy an OL and who can hurt you with his legs which is why we ranked Lamar so much higher than either.

all he has to do is use the new OL/WR corps to his advantage. make better decisions with the ball rather then run and help lead the team to wins and it will/should shut all the critics up.

 

sounds simple and will be a lot of work but I have confidence he will have a much better 2nd season.

Edited August 19, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[NoHuddleKelly12]

5 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

all he has to do is use the new OL/WR corps to his advantage. make better decisions with the ball rather then run and help lead the team to wins and it will/should shut all the critics up.

 

sounds simple and will be a lot of work but I have confidence he will have a much better 2nd season.

Agree totally. Going 9/11 against the Panthers including 5/5 targets to Beasley, bodes well for that prediction already, at least in terms of his mindset! (I know, I know, preseason--but I'd rather be trying to downplay good preseason play than justify a poor showing)  

[C.Biscuit97]

5 hours ago, jletha said:

Well Carson Wentz wasnt even the starter when Craig Bohl was the coach so while Im sure he had a hand in developing him, Carson did the majority of his developing on his own/after he left for Wyoming. Allen was developed under him though but everyone agreed that Josh was extremely raw as a passer and his main draw was his high ceiling because of his size, athleticiscm and arm strength, none of that is a product of coaching. So Im not gonna anoint Craig Bohl as some QB magician. I think its probably coincidence more than anything. 

 

Look at Lincoln Riley. He just developed two back-to-back #1 overall picks.

Bohl became Wyoming’s head coach in 2015.  Wentz was his starting qb at NDSU in 2014.  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html

 

and I stand by my point.  Developing two top 10 pick qbs at NDSU and Wyoming is amazing and shows the myth that Allen received bad coaching. 

 

And if Allen has a sophomore slump, he might be out of the nfl.  

Edited August 19, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[jletha]

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Bohl became Wyoming’s head coach in 2015.  Wentz was his starting qb at NDSU in 2014.  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html

 

and I stand by my point.  Developing two top 10 pick qbs at NDSU and Wyoming is amazing and shows the myth that Allen received bad coaching. 

 

And if Allen has a sophomore slump, he might be out of the nfl.  

Bohl was in Wyoming in 2014. But that doesnt matter really IMO. Yes Bohl certainly played a part in getting both of them drafted into the NFL. He certainly isnt a schlub but Im also not going to call Bohl anything spectacular either. I think that fact that Allen was so raw as a prospect coming out shows that the level of coaching he received was good but not the best. I think better coach would have won more games. Good recruiting tool for Bohl though

Edited August 19, 2019 by jletha