Pass rushers primed to breakout

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

The sacks from DT would be great but there may be more benefit in forcing opponents to alter their pass blocking scheme to the benefit of Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson.  I'm also hoping for the inside pressure to force premature throws and some interceptions.  I don't know how it will play out but I can't wait to see Oliver in real game action. 

[NewEraBills]

3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Has anyone else wondered about the possibility of sending a pick to Jacksonville for their Yannick Nsgsjgksdbgkjsfgbkjgfnjk? I feel like with Campbell and now Allen, he's a bit of an odd man out who will be wanting some cash money while they have none. 

 

Hedging their bets on a rookie to play full time might not be a smart thing.  Their best bet is to cut Dareus in the offseason combined with getting relief from that Bortles contract and they should be in ok shape.

[BringBackFergy]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I think the answer to this is not Oliver, but Jerry Hughes.  I think Jerry is going to have his best sack total of his career this year.  I also wont be surprised to see Trent Murphy flirt with double digit sacks himself if he remains healthy.  

 

I think too much pressure is already being put on Oliver to hit double digit sacks as a rookie by people on this board and in the media.  I think the rookie record for a DT was Suh and he had just 10 and yet seen lots of people thinking he is going to get to 12.  It could happen, but thats just a totally unreasonable expectation or bar to set.  

 

People need to pump the brakes a bit on Olivers sack totals.  Yes its possible he could, but its already not common for a DT to be in double digits, and its even rarer when a rookie does it.  Heck, the best of our generation, Aaron Donald his rookie year had 9 sacks.  In fact, here are his first 4 seasons:  9, 11, 9, 11 and yet seen a lot of talking about Oliver like he is going to get 12 as a rookie, better than Donald did in any of his first 4 seasons.

 

My expectation for a very good rookie year from Oliver would be 5 to 7 sacks.  Anything above that would be an excellent bonus.  Double digits is a just a totally unreasonable expectation.  

McDermott needs to take his winter parka away from him from early November through December and Oliver will be at 15. Either that or drape the winter coat over the opposing QB and tell him “Go get it!!”

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm

 

And pro football reference has him with 10 not 9.5

 

It doesn't matter, he is an established NFL player going on almost a decade

 

Who averaged 5 sacks a year over that near decade, including the last 4 seasons where he averaged 5 sacks too. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Ronin]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001034348/article/leonard-floyd-among-young-pass-rushers-set-to-break-out-in-19

 

Willie McGinest has tabbed Ed Oliver as one of his breakout pass rushers

 

While I don't expect a season of 12+ sacks I do think he will be a force and disrupting QBs lives all season

 

Quickest path to the QB is straight up the middle

 

I think he's going to have to avoid double-teams if he's going to do that.  Not sure I see that happening.  

 

From Ed Oliver's Draft profiles: 

 

nfl.com:  

• Gets mauled by down blocks and double teams

Walter Football:  Double teams also can give him problems. 

 

"He is not the same guy as Donald," said one source. "He is more comparable to a Dominique Easley. [Oliver is] disruptive, twitchy, and can do a lot of positive things, so that is why people are eager to compare him to Donald because they both have surprising speed. But Oliver is not Donald. Donald is extremely strong, and you could see that at the Senior Bowl when he was tossing guys around. Oliver has issues with mass and problems with double teams that Donald does not. [Oliver's] lateral anchor is a problem." 

 

The 3-technique will help him in that way but he's undersized, which I'm not sure needs to be reiterated, for a 3-T.  

 

I have greater hopes for him at DE, I'd really like to see what he can do out there with his speed.  I have a hunch that's where he'll end up.  I'm not bullish on him at 3T.  I think he'll be OK there but nowhere near his expectations.  I don't know if he has enough speed to play DE but I'm simply not seeing greatness at 3T/DT for him.  

 

That Dominique Easley comparison seems valid to me.  

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

The sacks from DT would be great but there may be more benefit in forcing opponents to alter their pass blocking scheme to the benefit of Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson.  I'm also hoping for the inside pressure to force premature throws and some interceptions.  I don't know how it will play out but I can't wait to see Oliver in real game action. 

 

That's what everyone said that they brought Lotulolei in for.  Either that hasn't worked, which is MO, or it has and Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson simply haven't been able to take advantage.  

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

 

Only one I saw had math issues.  It stated 50% chance of 9 and under sacks as well as 50% chance of 9 and over sacks.  

I could see the over if they completely dominate an offense line and if Oliver promises to just two hand touch QB down the OL will allow it so he does not get hurt.

 

That's all but ridiculous.  That U9 is a gimme.  

 

28 total players had 9+ sacks last season, only 7 were DTs.  

 

Donald led the league, DeForest Buckner, Jarran Reed, Fletcher Cox, and Geno Atkins were next in the progression and they're all entirely different types of players. Denico Autry is the only one that's in Oliver's prototye, and interestingly, he played DE too.  I have no idea how many of his 9 sacks were from the DE position.  That was also an odd positive year for him as he nearly matched his sack total from his other four years combined.  

 

I think we'll end up seeing Oliver playing some DE as well.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I don't think anybody expects double-digit sacks out of Oliver

 

If he gets 6-8 and disrupts alot of plays I think most would be ecstatic

 

Fully agree.  Donald had 9 in his rookie season.  Oliver's not Donald nor is he going to be.  

[Ronin]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HughJe99.htm

 

And pro football reference has him with 10 not 9.5

 

It doesn't matter, he is an established NFL player going on almost a decade

 

Hughes was tied for 38th with 10 other players last season in sacks.  He's averaged 5.5/season over the past four seasons.  He'll be 31 this season.  Logic would suggest that he's topped out now or very close to it.  

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Ronin said:

 

Hughes was tied for 38th with 10 other players last season in sacks.  He's averaged 5.5/season over the past four seasons.  He'll be 31 this season.  Logic would suggest that he's topped out now or very close to it.  

Being topped out doesn't mean he's not ready a good player

 

He was all over the place last year and his 7 sacks dont reflect that. If he plays at the same level as last year and has 7-10 sacks and we get some pressure opposite him out defense will be in great shape

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Being topped out doesn't mean he's not ready a good player

 

He was all over the place last year and his 7 sacks dont reflect that. If he plays at the same level as last year and has 7-10 sacks and we get some pressure opposite him out defense will be in great shape

 

This is what I was saying, I think he will "breakout" this year and could hit a career high of 12 to 15.  A player can break out that is a vet too, look at our own Zo.  Hughes is a good player, I like Hughes and he doesnt get enough credit.  

 

But, at the same time, in 9 years he only hit double digits once and that was 6 seasons ago.  The last 4 years he has been back down to 5 per season basically with 21 sacks over those 4 years.  If he busts out again for 12+ that would qualify as a break out season in my book.  Lets be honest, unless you are a Bills fan, study the NFL for a profession, or work for an NFL team you probably dont know who Jerry Hughes is.  

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I was saying, I think he will "breakout" this year and could hit a career high of 12 to 15.  A player can break out that is a vet too, look at our own Zo.  Hughes is a good player, I like Hughes and he doesnt get enough credit.  

 

But, at the same time, in 9 years he only hit double digits once and that was 6 seasons ago.  The last 4 years he has been back down to 5 per season basically with 21 sacks over those 4 years.  If he busts out again for 12+ that would qualify as a break out season in my book.  Lets be honest, unless you are a Bills fan, study the NFL for a profession, or work for an NFL team you probably dont know who Jerry Hughes is.  

I would disagree

 

I have worked in and around sports my whole life so I am always talking to other football fans

 

Jerry Hughes is the one name outside Kyle Williams on the D most do/did know

 

He has way more name clout than larenzo Alexander

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Buffalo716

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 sacks and not a liability in the run game would be a DROY season from a DT

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Being topped out doesn't mean he's not ready a good player

 

He was all over the place last year and his 7 sacks dont reflect that. If he plays at the same level as last year and has 7-10 sacks and we get some pressure opposite him out defense will be in great shape

 

He's good, he's not great, and he's not going to be getting any better.  

 

He's also not McBeane's acquisition.  He was here well before they ever arrived.  

 

My point was contrasting Hughes' 10 sacks in '13 and '14.  That was a half-decade ago.  Even then that was good, not great.   9.5 sacks was good for 19th in 2014 and 10 sacks was good for 20th in 2013.  

 

As to reflecting his play, his play will be reflected by what kind of an impact he made.  He's one of our better players, but still, he ranked tied for 38th in sacks, tied for 16th in TFLs, and tied for 130th in QB Hits.  He was tied for 335th in combination tackles.  Granted, he was a DE, but even amongst DEs he ranked 35th in combination tackles, 24th in solo tackles, and 73rd in Assisted Tackles.  You can make of that what you want, but he's not the same player he was five or six years ago.  

 

"Being all over the field" really doesn't tell us much, particularly since there's a large degree of subjectivity in terms of what that actually means, eh.  Those numbers do tell us much tho.  

 

Having said all of that, he's our best pass-rusher, which IMO doesn't say much for McBeane.  

 

[Richard Noggin]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

There have been many references here on this board since drafting Oliver that he would get 10-12 sacks.  Seen some media hype too.  There was even an over under thread on Olivers sack totals with it set at double digits (12 I think).  

 

Hughes has only one season with double digits when he got 10 in 2013, that was 5 years ago.  Last 4 years have been 5, 6, 4, and 7 last year.  I think Hughes could hit 12 to 15 sacks this year.  He was all over the QB last year, and with more pressure coming from hopefully Murphy and Oliver, I think Hughes is going to eat a lot more this year.  So I would say he could break out in a big way this season and get to 12 to 15 sacks this year which would be a career high.  

 

Hughes career average is just 5.1 sacks per season...and if you drop the first 2 years where he wasn't a starter, its still just 6.5 sacks a season.  I would say a guy with those kinds of career numbers hitting 12 to 15 sacks would be a "breakout", especially since his lone 10 sack season was 5 years ago.  

Your take on Hughes makes some sense. In a best-case scenario kind of way, but still has merit. 

 

Your use of "seen" is so wonderfully WNY that I just don't know what to say. I can hear your typed words. Carry on. Regional dialects are a healthy, natural part of linguistics.

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, Ronin said:

 

He's good, he's not great, and he's not going to be getting any better.  

 

He's also not McBeane's acquisition.  He was here well before they ever arrived.  

 

My point was contrasting Hughes' 10 sacks in '13 and '14.  That was a half-decade ago.  Even then that was good, not great.   9.5 sacks was good for 19th in 2014 and 10 sacks was good for 20th in 2013.  

 

As to reflecting his play, his play will be reflected by what kind of an impact he made.  He's one of our better players, but still, he ranked tied for 38th in sacks, tied for 16th in TFLs, and tied for 130th in QB Hits.  He was tied for 335th in combination tackles.  Granted, he was a DE, but even amongst DEs he ranked 35th in combination tackles, 24th in solo tackles, and 73rd in Assisted Tackles.  You can make of that what you want, but he's not the same player he was five or six years ago.  

 

"Being all over the field" really doesn't tell us much, particularly since there's a large degree of subjectivity in terms of what that actually means, eh.  Those numbers do tell us much tho.  

 

Having said all of that, he's our best pass-rusher, which IMO doesn't say much for McBeane.  

 

You're avoiding, overlooking, or unaware of some metrics that show Hughes' 2018 performance in a much more favorable light:

 

"Hughes’ pass-rushing performance was truly among the best in the game in 2018. On 397 pass-rushing snaps, he had the second-highest pass-rushing grade (90.4), the highest pass-rush win rate (23.9%) and the league’s highest pressure rate (19.7%).

 

When there was no blitz or stunt executed by the Buffalo defense, Hughes posted a staggering 25.6% pass-rush win rate — by far the best among edge defenders —  but on top of that, Hughes was still at the top when a stunt was indeed executed by Buffalo. His 90.1 pass-rush grade from such plays was the highest among edge defenders, with second-place Demarcus Lawrence far in the rearview mirror, at 85.6."

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-jerry-hughes-is-an-unsung-hero-on-the-buffalo-bills-defense-fully-deserving-of-a-two-year-extension

[RoyBatty is alive]

14 hours ago, CommonCents said:

Did Canada legalize cocaine?

No he has just been reading & compiling the pre -season fluff pieces bandied around here lately.

[teef]

13 hours ago, H2o said:

Nope, but he just ate the most acid I've ever seen anyone eat in my life mannnn. Meanwhile, row_33 in his front seat......

 

i just read this in tommy chong's voice.  god i love that movie.

[Ronin]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

You're avoiding, overlooking, or unaware of some metrics that show Hughes' 2018 performance in a much more favorable light:

 

"Hughes’ pass-rushing performance was truly among the best in the game in 2018. On 397 pass-rushing snaps, he had the second-highest pass-rushing grade (90.4), the highest pass-rush win rate (23.9%) and the league’s highest pressure rate (19.7%).

 

When there was no blitz or stunt executed by the Buffalo defense, Hughes posted a staggering 25.6% pass-rush win rate — by far the best among edge defenders —  but on top of that, Hughes was still at the top when a stunt was indeed executed by Buffalo. His 90.1 pass-rush grade from such plays was the highest among edge defenders, with second-place Demarcus Lawrence far in the rearview mirror, at 85.6."

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-jerry-hughes-is-an-unsung-hero-on-the-buffalo-bills-defense-fully-deserving-of-a-two-year-extension

 

Fair points. 

 

As stated, he's easily the best pass-rusher we have.  McBeane haven't effectively done much to supplement.  

[thebandit27]

11 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I think he's going to have to avoid double-teams if he's going to do that.  Not sure I see that happening.  

 

From Ed Oliver's Draft profiles: 

 

nfl.com:  

• Gets mauled by down blocks and double teams

Walter Football:  Double teams also can give him problems. 

 

"He is not the same guy as Donald," said one source. "He is more comparable to a Dominique Easley. [Oliver is] disruptive, twitchy, and can do a lot of positive things, so that is why people are eager to compare him to Donald because they both have surprising speed. But Oliver is not Donald. Donald is extremely strong, and you could see that at the Senior Bowl when he was tossing guys around. Oliver has issues with mass and problems with double teams that Donald does not. [Oliver's] lateral anchor is a problem." 

 

The 3-technique will help him in that way but he's undersized, which I'm not sure needs to be reiterated, for a 3-T.  

 

I have greater hopes for him at DE, I'd really like to see what he can do out there with his speed.  I have a hunch that's where he'll end up.  I'm not bullish on him at 3T.  I think he'll be OK there but nowhere near his expectations.  I don't know if he has enough speed to play DE but I'm simply not seeing greatness at 3T/DT for him.  

 

That Dominique Easley comparison seems valid to me.  

 

 

 

 

That's what everyone said that they brought Lotulolei in for.  Either that hasn't worked, which is MO, or it has and Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson simply haven't been able to take advantage.  

 

I have a problem with "scouts" using Donald's NFL profile to compare him to Oliver's college profile.  It's revisionist.  Online scouts said the same exact things about Donald back in 2014:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/3/15/5473430/aaron-donald-scouting-report

 

"Donald will never be mistaken for a two-gap run stuffer. He struggles to hold his ground against multiple blockers and will get overpowered. But at the same time, teams shouldn't expect him to be that type of defensive tackle. "

 

"Because he's not a classic 315-pound monster, Donald doesn't have the power of some defensive tackles. While he doesn't get pushed around, he doesn't necessarily win because of his strength. "

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

WEAKNESSES

 Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 4-5

BOTTOM LINE

 Short, scrappy, instinctive, highly productive defensive lineman who does not look the part, but inspires confidence he can be an exception to the rule. Is the type you root for and has the quickness, athleticism and motor to earn a spot as a rotational three-technique in a fast-flowing 4-3 scheme.

 

Now, make no mistake, I disagreed with the above at the time, and I repeatedly said that if neither Watkins nor Evans fell to Buffalo's spot at 9, they should take Donald, because he's the best defensive player in the draft.  But for Walter (or anyone else) to say that Donald didn't have the same reservations to his name is simply revisionist.

[Ronin]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I have a problem with "scouts" using Donald's NFL profile to compare him to Oliver's college profile.  It's revisionist.  Online scouts said the same exact things about Donald back in 2014:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/3/15/5473430/aaron-donald-scouting-report

 

"Donald will never be mistaken for a two-gap run stuffer. He struggles to hold his ground against multiple blockers and will get overpowered. But at the same time, teams shouldn't expect him to be that type of defensive tackle. "

 

"Because he's not a classic 315-pound monster, Donald doesn't have the power of some defensive tackles. While he doesn't get pushed around, he doesn't necessarily win because of his strength. "

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

WEAKNESSES

 Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 4-5

BOTTOM LINE

 Short, scrappy, instinctive, highly productive defensive lineman who does not look the part, but inspires confidence he can be an exception to the rule. Is the type you root for and has the quickness, athleticism and motor to earn a spot as a rotational three-technique in a fast-flowing 4-3 scheme.

 

Now, make no mistake, I disagreed with the above at the time, and I repeatedly said that if neither Watkins nor Evans fell to Buffalo's spot at 9, they should take Donald, because he's the best defensive player in the draft.  But for Walter (or anyone else) to say that Donald didn't have the same reservations to his name is simply revisionist.

 

Well, I didn't use any info from when Donald was a draftee.  

 

Otherwise, it's good to know that Oliver, whom his own coaches at Houston said was too heavy at much over 275, will play like Donald.  

 

I'll look forward to that this season.  You've just convinced me.   

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Ronin said:

 

Well, I didn't use any info from when Donald was a draftee.  

 

Otherwise, it's good to know that Oliver, whom his own coaches at Houston said was too heavy at much over 275, will play like Donald.  

 

I'll look forward to that this season.  You've just convinced me.   

 

Nice to know that you once again refuse to acknowledge what anyone is actually saying and just trundle onward with your rant.

 

I'm only slightly amazed that you somehow got the literal opposite of the point that I was making from my post.

 

But I suppose that when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.