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Inigo Montoya

Schedule makers give Bills big advantages vs Jets

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Posted (edited)

I think the NFL schedule makers have done us a huge favor in our two games versus the Jets this year.  I think these two games will have an overweighted affect on our playoff chances this season.

 

I posted a thread shortly after the schedule was released on May 1st entitled "Bills/Jets Wk 17 New Era Field for Playoffs" where I said that I think we will be playing the Jets in Week 17 at New Era for a playoff birth.  Having that game at home should be a huge advantage for our BIlls.  

 

I think just as important, and as advantageous, is our other Jets game Week 1 in the Meadowlands.  The fact that we get to play the Jets the first game of the season when they are going to field a new Head Coach, a new Defensive Coordinator, and a new QB/Offensive Coordinator is a huge advantage.  There should be some growing pains those first few games of the season for the Jets as they try to implement new systems on both sides of the ball.  New coaches and new systems in New York versus continuity of coaches and schemes for Buffalo.  How much is that advantage worth?  A field goal, a touchdown?  That should at least negate the typical three point home field advantage most teams enjoy.

 

I think catching the Jets at home Week 1 when they are trying to get their footing is just as big an advantage for us as playing them Week 17 at New Era.

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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Well, it's tough to beat someone on their home opener. There's also a case for them having the advantage because they can game plan for us, but we cant for them as well because it's all new.

 

We'll see. I actually think we might lose to them week 1, but that's if the Jets can hold all those egos and disfunction in check.

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16 minutes ago, MJS said:

Well, it's tough to beat someone on their home opener. There's also a case for them having the advantage because they can game plan for us, but we cant for them as well because it's all new.

 

We'll see. I actually think we might lose to them week 1, but that's if the Jets can hold all those egos and disfunction in check.

I was having similar reactions, or at least questions, as I read the OP. 

 

Are new coaches historically UNsuccessful in early-season games, especially in the last three to five seasons? The OP seems to be assuming (or knowing) that coaching changes tend to result in early season losses, for the reasons provided in that post.

 

HOWEVER, my initial thought, as I try to see it through an opposing gameplanner's perspective, is that new coaches and schemes with ZERO actual NFL game film with their current teams present a unique and probably frustrating challenge: akin to scouting college talent, the gameplanners must predict and project how previous schematic and situational traits and performance will translate and develop in new circumstances. That seems far more worrisome, ahead of time, than how well the opponent will execute said plans in-game. NFL coaches and players thrive on studying their opponents' specific tendencies. They hate the unknown. 

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I think it’s less about preparing for what your opponent is going to do, which is a guessing game early in the season for everyone, and more about being able to execute your own game plan well.  I think the advantage there is on our side.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

I disagree. 

 

Being able to come out against a team that has no idea what they'll see will be a major advantage for the Jets that first week. I'm sure the Bills will have a few surprises going the other way also.

 

As for the last game being at home ... the last game counts just exactly as much as the 12th game, or the 7th, or any game. It's good that we play the Jets, whom I don't think will be as good as us this year. Whether that game was 16th or 5th makes no difference in the end. Yeah, it makes it likelier we'll win our last game, but also likelier that we come into that last game with one more loss due to having not played the Jets twice yet.

Edited by Thurman#1
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1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I think it’s less about preparing for what your opponent is going to do, which is a guessing game early in the season for everyone, and more about being able to execute your own game plan well.  I think the advantage there is on our side.

 

 

I don't exactly disagree on general terms, except that this particular circumstance tilts the gameplan advantage to the Jets' favor. 

 

McD's week one gameplan guessing game is far more hypothetical than Gase's. His coaches have several years of concrete, Buffalo Bills film to base their gameplan on. And hell, Gase has faced McD's Bills first-hand four times over that span. So the current book on Buffalo (their team can evolve, of course) is well-established. The New York Jets, on the other hand, are MUCH more mysterious and difficult to tailor a gameplan to. New schemes and new personnel. 

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So your position is that the continuity of having our players in the same system with the same coaches is, on the whole, a disadvantage when playing against a team that has new coaches and players learning a new offense and defense because they can study our team’s film from last season?

 

I believe being able to effectively execute your own offense and defense well is far more important to winning a game than having year old film to review and game plan against what you think your opponent might do.  

 

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on that point.  🙂

 

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It's odd that the Jets will stay in a 3-4 scheme despite hiring Williams who has always run a 4-3 especially since they finished 29th on defense last year and let Matt Barkley dissect them.  I agree with the OP just because our defense is under the same scheme with little roster turnover while their offense will still be adjusting to a new system that we prepared for twice last year.  Gives us a better chance on the road compared to if we faced them there later in the season.

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Posted (edited)
Image result for angry ny jets fans gif
Edited by HOUSE

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Posted (edited)

I hope you're right!

 

I think our advantage will be a defense that is better than their offense.

 

Our O to their D, looks like a wash to me right now.

 

Special teams? Who knows? Every team has a lot of turnover in that year to year, so hard to predict.

Edited by CSBill

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The opener is a very tough game to predict.  Neither Gase nor Greggggg are "new" coaches/coordinators so the Bills will know what to expect.  Of all four starting units on O and D I would think the Bills' D should be the best prepared to open the season, based upon the continuity of scheme/coaching and talent (with an influx of Ed Oliver).  The Bills' O may be the least prepared, however, because of the very short time all of the new pieces will have had to work together.

 

The Jets had great ST last season but lost their best returner, who is ironically now a Bill.  One would expect the Bills' ST to be markedly improved, if for no other reason than increased focus and the energy of a new, young coach.

 

At the end of the day I think Daboll and McD are relying upon the Bills' veteran backfield of Shady/Gore and a much improved line to give Allen every opportunity to progress.

 

The matchup I think will be key in the opener is the Bills' D line vs. a suspect Jets' OL -- the Jets did bring in a lot of talent this offseason but largely ignored one of the weakest units on their team (25th last season according to PFF) despite trading for Osemele.

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7 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Couldn’t agree more. But this guy was somewhat taken aback by your analysis: 

7CD935DF-1B0A-4F08-8450-4007CAE3F5C5.thumb.jpeg.f90c3bbe4e4741a872b2d9f202b1eacf.jpeg

 

FYI, his eyes’ Twitter page is of course a must.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Crazy_Gase_Eyes

 

Never gets old.

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We are a superior team and don't need any advantages to beat them or anybody else for that matter. Bring it on NFL!!!

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9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I think the NFL schedule makers have done us a huge favor in our two games versus the Jets this year.  I think these two games will have an overweighted affect on our playoff chances this season.

 

I posted a thread shortly after the schedule was released on May 1st entitled "Bills/Jets Wk 17 New Era Field for Playoffs" where I said that I think we will be playing the Jets in Week 17 at New Era for a playoff birth.  Having that game at home should be a huge advantage for our BIlls.  

 

I think just as important, and as advantageous, is our other Jets game Week 1 in the Meadowlands.  The fact that we get to play the Jets the first game of the season when they are going to field a new Head Coach, a new Defensive Coordinator, and a new QB/Offensive Coordinator is a huge advantage.  There should be some growing pains those first few games of the season for the Jets as they try to implement new systems on both sides of the ball.  New coaches and new systems in New York versus continuity of coaches and schemes for Buffalo.  How much is that advantage worth?  A field goal, a touchdown?  That should at least negate the typical three point home field advantage most teams enjoy.

 

I think catching the Jets at home Week 1 when they are trying to get their footing is just as big an advantage for us as playing them Week 17 at New Era.

 

We also have to hope our OL gels quickly.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I think just as important, and as advantageous, is our other Jets game Week 1 in the Meadowlands.  The fact that we get to play the Jets the first game of the season when they are going to field a new Head Coach, a new Defensive Coordinator, and a new QB/Offensive Coordinator is a huge advantage.  There should be some growing pains those first few games of the season for the Jets as they try to implement new systems on both sides of the ball.  New coaches and new systems in New York versus continuity of coaches and schemes for Buffalo.  How much is that advantage worth?  A field goal, a touchdown?  That should at least negate the typical three point home field advantage most teams enjoy.

 

I think catching the Jets at home Week 1 when they are trying to get their footing is just as big an advantage for us as playing them Week 17 at New Era.

 

Not so sure about that.  Uncertainty helps young coaches, QBs, and teams win games, it's common in the NFL.  

 

Defenses can't plan for what is unknown.  

 

Besides, last season we split with the Jets.  Barkley led us in our win with our best game of the season by both a QB as well as team.  Under Allen we stunk the joint up with 3 Allen TOs and no passing TDs.  He had a 44.4 passer rating.  That was in week 15 where everyone claims that he improved after returning from injury.  

 

If he plays anything close to like that again we'll be lucky to not get thoroughly beaten.  I suspect a split again between the two teams.  

 

Edited by Ronin

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, MJS said:

Well, it's tough to beat someone on their home opener. There's also a case for them having the advantage because they can game plan for us, but we cant for them as well because it's all new.

 

We'll see. I actually think we might lose to them week 1, but that's if the Jets can hold all those egos and disfunction in check.

Yeah, it kind of goes both ways with a new head coach.  There's no game film so Sean McDermott and Les Frazier are going to have to do some guessing about what they will do.  However, that is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Adam Gase is an offensive minded guy andwas in our division for the last several years.  Whoever the offensive coordinator is, the Jets will be running the Adam Gase offense, and McDermott knows that.  It will be somewhat different with different personnel than Gase had in Miami, but it's not going to be brand new.  Likewise, on defense,  Gregg Williams is a known commodity around the league.  The personnel will be new, but Greg Williams will do what Gregg Williams does everywhere.  So, yes, there will be some guesswork in preparing for them in that first game of the season, but it's not going to be guesswork in a total vacuum.

Edited by TigerJ
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1 hour ago, Buffalo86 said:

Fwiw, last year's new HCs went 0-7 in week 1.

Buffalo86 haven’t seen you in a while , I know your still upset about  Rex Ryan getting fired but it looks like it was the right move , 

 

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5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

So your position is that the continuity of having our players in the same system with the same coaches is, on the whole, a disadvantage when playing against a team that has new coaches and players learning a new offense and defense because they can study our team’s film from last season?

 

I believe being able to effectively execute your own offense and defense well is far more important to winning a game than having year old film to review and game plan against what you think your opponent might do.  

 

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on that point.  🙂

 

 

But the problem there is offensively could be 7 of the 11 starters are new.  So it's the same system, but how well will the new players execute it.  May depend alot on how many nicked up players during pre-season and how much time all 11 have to work together.  On the other hand new players does make it a bit tougher for NY too as they don't know exactly what the new players will do in the system.

 

Defensively same players for the most part, same system, so do give the Bills the advantage there.  And the defense was good to start with, where as offensively the team struggled last year overall.

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nice to see that road games in the NFL are now taken for granted as easypeasy cakewalk wins

 

 

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28 minutes ago, row_33 said:

nice to see that road games in the NFL are now taken for granted as easypeasy cakewalk wins

 

 

 

Funny.  I don’t recall making that argument at all.

 

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12 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Couldn’t agree more. But this guy was somewhat taken aback by your analysis: 

7CD935DF-1B0A-4F08-8450-4007CAE3F5C5.thumb.jpeg.f90c3bbe4e4741a872b2d9f202b1eacf.jpeg

 

FYI, his eyes’ Twitter page is of course a must.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Crazy_Gase_Eyes

 

If head coaches are drug tested, he may be on suspension by opening day.  

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I am not sure that the term "same" will apply to the offensive system...with new horses up front almost across the board, and other new talent as well.  Yes, the coordinator is the same and he will use the same terms, but I am expecting this O will look different with some sort of running game.  I also expect Allen will be more mature and do a better job with his second year with the coordinator .  I was just in Vegas and took the three points and the Bills btw.

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12 hours ago, MJS said:

Well, it's tough to beat someone on their home opener. There's also a case for them having the advantage because they can game plan for us, but we cant for them as well because it's all new.

 

. . . and then in week 2, we play the G-men in their home opener!

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