How much is cole beasly really loving the bills?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

 

Prescott is top shelf mediocre.  That is still mediocre though.  

 

...yet they're talkin' $34 mil/year for mediocrity........go figure......

[ROCBillsBeliever]

18 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

I think that neither were good draft picks, Allen at 7th or Oliver at 9th.  I'd have made different picks.  In fact, I'd have had Wynn, Hilliard, and Risner on our OL right now and Drew Lock at QB, instead of those two for the same picks and I'd have gotten a couple of others too.  

 

Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!

[Teddy KGB]

Ronin and Badol have pooped all over this thread with the hottest takes.   

 

Burn it ! 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Teddy KGB

[formerlyofCtown]

17 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...yet they're talkin' $34 mil/year for mediocrity........go figure......

We paid Tyrod 18 for low end mediocrity.  Its a QBs market.  Even if they arent worth it they will get it.

10 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!

The only time I get to read their brilliance is when others quote them.

 

I havent blocked Ronin yet.  Must be he offers valuable takes sometimes.

Edited June 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[formerlyofCtown]

18 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

Believe me, I hope I'm wrong too.  

 

Discussing what one sees and believes isn't necessarily what one wishes, contrary to the opinions of some here that seem to know more about posters than the posters themselves. Kind of like God.  

Youve discovered my true identity.  Have to change names.?

Edited June 24, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 I'm just curious tho, and I don't expect an honest answer to this question, but if another team like the Jets or Fins had drafted Allen instead, would everyone here be just as bullish on him.  It's rhetorical at this point, but given the opinions on both Darnold and Jackson, who both had better passing metrics in similar situations, that's at least one data point there.  

 

 

 

 

I would not be as bullish on Allen if he was drafted by the Jets or Finns because like others, I would be judging the guy entirely by his stats.  And since I'm NOT a Jet's or Finns fan I would not have watched EVERY one of their games and concluded that the stats do not tell the whole story about Allen.  Nor would I have been as aware of the real improvement seen in Allen's game after he returned from injury.  I consider improvement in a rookie QB's play to be a much more important metric then most of the statistics being tossed around. 

 

It's because I did watch every one of Allen's snaps from scrimmage and I watched them with a high degree of interest as his success or failure is critical to the Bill's future, that I can be bullish on him. 

 

But I do have friends who are Jets fans and if they had sat me down and got me to watch Allen's highlights I would have been impressed.  And if Allen played on the Dolphins and had games against the Bills like he did against the Finns I would be very concerned that Miami had gotten themselves a hell of a QB.  And for the record, I hadn't seen much of Darnold until the Bills/Jets game and I came away impressed and believe he has a similar potential as Allen to be a very good QB.

 

One final point is that I had watched several of Allen's games when he was in college.  I used to love watching those Mountain West games on late ESPN and I came away impressed with Allen.  It was obvious he needed a lot of work but he made throws I had never seen a QB make at any level of football.  I even thought wouldn't it be cool if the Bills could grab him in the 4th round.   So I do have a bias in favor of the guy.  Of course my bigger bias is in favor of the Buffalo Bills who will be in deep trouble if Allen turns out to be a bust. 

 

Oh and the fact we ended paying a much higher price for Allen then a 4th round pick is irrelevant IF he becomes a franchise level QB.  

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

 

Yeah, I share your concern.  There seems to be a lot of people who have no concern and think Allen is refined.....his "catchable balls" are right up there and his completion % issue is only due to the other players on the Bills offense last year.   The high end of production to expect/hope for out of Beasley is something like 2018 Zay Jones numbers....maybe a few more catches.  There seems to be a disproportionate amount of excitement about Beasley compared to what his past production/value are.

 

I'm not hearing this at all on 2BD.  Seriously who is posting that Allen is "refined"?  His "supporters" on 2BD  constantly point out that Allen needs to improve in his passing game.  We think the guy is a raw talent with a huge upside.  We tend to be optimistic becasue he showed flashes of greatness and the things he didn't do well can be LEARNED and CORRECTED.  This is the opposite of considering Allen to be a refined passer.  

 

And why shouldn't we be excited about Beasley?   He is by most accounts a top 3 NFL slot receiver.  His signing immediately upgraded our receiving core.  Ditto for the signing of Brown who gives us an EXPERIENCED deep threat to compliment a developing young deep threat in Foster. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/22/2019 at 5:58 PM, Ronin said:

Well, unless Allen makes a monster leap in his play, Prescott last season was worlds better than Allen.  

 

Here's my big concern, Allen's passing strengths don't lie where Beasley typically caught the ball in Dallas, in fact the opposite, those areas were Allen's biggest weakness last year.  

 

So whether that changes remains to be seen, but talking in the offseason much less the preseason I'm not sure accomplishes much, particularly in Buffalo where we've been offseason and preseason champs for years.  

 

We'll see how Beasley works out, but they don't need him deep.  As it is, he only caught four deep passes last season and the gains were only 18, 19, 21, 21, and 32.  

 

Actually Allen made a lot of great passes in the areas where Cole would be running.  You realize Josh threw the ball 320 times, yet only 65 of them were in the air 20+ yards.  Some of you act like Cole is only running 6 yard routes lol.  Cole not only will be running routes all over the place under 20 yards, but will be a guy that can go up the seam too or a deep post as well at times.  

 

Either way, 80% of the passes Allen threw last year were in the areas where Cole will be working most of the time.  And Allen was a lot more accurate in that range than he was over 20+ yards despite your false claims Allen was better at the deep ball than the medium and short routes.  

 

So basically the premise of your entire argument is categorically wrong in thought, math and statistics.  Impressive, hard to pull off the trifecta like that, even on TSW.

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Ronin said:

 

 

My opinions on Allen were also well and unmistakably stated well PRIOR TO the Draft.  I would be insincere/dishonest if they had changed after we drafted him.  I'm just curious tho, and I don't expect an honest answer to this question, but if another team like the Jets or Fins had drafted Allen instead, would everyone here be just as bullish on him.  It's rhetorical at this point, but given the opinions on both Darnold and Jackson, who both had better passing metrics in similar situations, that's at least one data point there.  

 

 

 

I forgot to address this sentence which IMO is not correct.  While Darnold & Allen could be said to have played last year under "similar situations" the same CAN NOT be said about Jackson.  First, he didn't start until half way through the season giving him time to learn on the bench; 2nd Jackson played for a playoff caliber team with excellent TE's & O-line and a very effective running game.  IMO, If you put either Dranold or Allen on Baltimore last season they easily match what Jackson did and neither of them would have been shut down in the way Jackson & the Ravens offense was by SD in the playoffs.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

54 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We paid Tyrod 18 for low end mediocrity.  Its a QBs market.  Even if they arent worth it they will get it.

The only time I get to read their brilliance is when others quote them.

 

I havent blocked Ronin yet.  Must be he offers valuable takes sometimes.

 

...so where the hell do I sign up?......I'd be unequivocally "the bottom of the barrel" so I'll take $2 mil....fair enough??,,,,,,,,,

[3rdand12]

so many things factor in to the discussion . 

Cole is a big addition to a questionable WR group last year.  Shaky O line and Rookie QB learning on the fly.

 no reason at all to not see the positives from the offseason and the potential successes to come.

Bills put huge effort into improving Allens World. why not think they will show rewards ?

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/23/2019 at 1:19 PM, NewCastleFanBills said:

Allen didn't have a slot WR that was where he was supposed to be, when he was needed to be there. Allen threw away a ton of passes due to that fact. Having a player like Cole B, will add to Allen's completion percentage. Prescott had his numbers because WRs were open, and where they were needed to be on time.

 

Good post! 

 

Its astonishing to me how the "he's inaccurate" crowd glosses over the volume of passes Allen threw away under duress from a terrible OL or when our Receivers struggled to get separation and get open.  

 

In fact, lets put Josh Allens comp % in REAL perspective.  Josh ONLY needed to complete 23 more of his attempts last year to have had over a 60% completion rate.  And that was during a rookie year, with terrible supporting cast and a terrible OL.  

 

If the OL this year can help Josh throw less passes away and our WRs just drop less passes, he would get to 60% completion even with little to no improvement from the Josh that played the final 6 weeks.

 

So this whole thing about last year is silly, it really is, especially given he was a raw rookie with terrible support from his receivers, TEs, RBs and OL.  Did he miss a throw here and there he want to see him make, YUP...SO DO ALL QB's, including the best.  But because the combination of the dropped passes, great throws over turned by dumb penalties, and the terrible OL...we saw Josh's comp % take a hit and some want to put it all on Allen as if he is solely responsible.  

 

He was more accurate than his comp % stated, and it only takes 2 eyes to see that.  Cole Beasley is going to be a great addition to this team, and he doesn't have to have a 1000 yard season for him to be a great asset to Josh and his development.  

[Fred Slacks]

I can’t recall what game specifically it was last season but Josh Allen made a first down throw on 3rd and about 6. The play got called back for holding. Next play was 3rd and 16 and Josh’s allen came back and hit a deep outside comeback for a first down again. The play got called back again for holding. For me that was the defining moment when I knew Josh Allen can play this game.  The first was him converting with his arm instead of running. The second was him converting with his arm on what would normally be a throw short and punt it for field position. The kid can play. I don’t post here often but I read every day on these threads. Ronin’s argument that the new OL additions with husband pFF ratings is in accurate to say the least. If you go to 2017 PFF ratings Spencer Long grades out very well at guard. Now healthy one can assume upgrade at LG, C and with Ford/Neschke (I cant spell it) at RT this line is upgraded for sure. Significantly?  Not necessarily. Upgraded?  Definitely. I’m of the opinion that if JA gets a half second more in the pocket or a full second then we will see him hit 58-60% completion. If we get him more time than that he will be pushing 65%. During OTA’s they were throwing swing passes close to half the snaps on offense. That alone will help increase his completion percentage. A halfway decent run offense (which the slightly-moderately upgraded O line will help provide) will help allen as well in his development. 

 

How is someone watched Allen last season and is unable to recognize his improvement over the last 5-6 games of the season is beyond me. They need to rewatch the games. Don’t look at the stats. The ball is placed just fine. A few times it’s placed incredibly well. 

 

Oh yeah WR is upgraded too. Not dominant but definitely adequate. This should be a fun season. I think 10-6 is realistic. 11-5 very possible. 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...so where the hell do I sign up?......I'd be unequivocally "the bottom of the barrel" so I'll take $2 mil....fair enough??,,,,,,,,,

Lol.  NFL minimum rookie minimum is $480K I believe

[billspro]

On 6/23/2019 at 3:11 PM, Ronin said:

 

 

I realize that was the only play like that all season.  

 

I’m pretty sure Zay Jones said that play was his fault. That play doesn’t really show separation skills imo. 

[billspro]

On 6/23/2019 at 3:44 PM, Ronin said:

 

BTW, here's 9 plays in the Detroit game whereby primarily slot receivers (whomever they were) were more than open enough, sometimes wide-open, and Allen either didn't see them or was simply ignoring them looking for the homerun ball.  This notion that our receivers, slot or otherwise, could never or rarely get open is utter nonsense.  Also notice, if you watch the entire video, that Allen really isn't  under any particular pressure, certainly nothing that the average NFL QB doesn't face every Sunday.  Likewise, average NFL QBs make most of those throws resulting in completions.

 

1:00 - Allen has McKenzie wide-open on the right but for whatever inexplicable reason doesn't see him.  OL/blocking was fantastic.  

 

1:10 - He misses (doesn't see apparently) Foster who's wide open down a seam if he hits him in stride. 

 

1:26 - He's got Thompson (from the slot) open if he leads him.  

 

1:57 - He's got the RB open for an easy 5+ on 1-n-10 but doesn't see or hit him.  

 

3:05 - He's got Croom open on the release 

 

3:15 - He's got McCloud open on the break on the right and Croom is a good yard-plus ahead of his coverage on the left.  Good QBs make those throws.  

 

4:15 - Not slot, but he's got Ford wide-open on his break for an easy 5+ on 1-n-10, instead looks downfield incomplete.  Again, you've gotta take what the D gives you, Allen's always looking for a home-run.  

 

4:30 - Take your choice, right (Clay) or left (Ford), slot receivers open on either side on 2-n-10, either one for an easy 5+ w/ no coverage setting up no worse than a 3rd-n-short.  Instead Allen once again, looking for the homerun, goes deep/incomplete setting up a 3rd-n-long.  

 

4:49 - Here again, Allen waits and waves off Clay on the right who's wide-open for a decent gain on 1-n-15 or DiMarco on the left for a lesser gain.  Granted, he completed downfield to Foster, but again, instead of taking what the D gives him, Allen waits, that time it worked out, above it did not.  

 

 

 

It' simply not true that no one was ever open underneath or in the flats.  It's an excuse that fans have levied which has become a false narrative giving Allen an out.  Look, I get it, everyone wants Allen to work out, so do I, but reality is reality.  

 

Look at the video above and tell me with a straight face that none of those receivers were open, it's ridiculous.  

 

We'll see how much Beasley "being open" in areas where Allen simply didn't look to last year makes the kind of difference being talked about here.  

 

He needs to take more short throws, no argument there. The Bills had the worst WR core in the league last year. There are advanced WR stats showing their separation in the bottom 5. Were there plays they were open? sure. Did Allen look for the homerun ball far too often? Yes. That will be one of the easiest things to fix, especially when you add a WR like Beasley. Really all Allen needs to do is take the short throws the defence is giving him and he will become an elite QB, he has all the talent in the world. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by billspro

[Ronin]

9 hours ago, mattynh said:

 

 

Yeah, I share your concern.  There seems to be a lot of people who have no concern and think Allen is refined.....his "catchable balls" are right up there and his completion % issue is only due to the other players on the Bills offense last year.   The high end of production to expect/hope for out of Beasley is something like 2018 Zay Jones numbers....maybe a few more catches.  There seems to be a disproportionate amount of excitement about Beasley compared to what his past production/value are.

 

Presumably you meant his "uncatchable balls" where he was worse than all the rookies and DFL in the league.  

 

He ranked 35th of 35, and was so far below-average that it's almost unfathomable.  

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ronin

[Ronin]

5 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Hey, Mods: please pin for future crucifixion. Thanks!

 

Yes, please, pin this.  

 

ROC, why don't you go take a good hard look at my takes on Watkins, Manuel, Spiller, Lawson, Ragland, Zay Jones, and a bunch of others.  

 

I GUARANTEE you some have but needless to say, my takes on them weren't reposted.  Funny how that works.  

 

But yes, please, pin this.  

 

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I would not be as bullish on Allen if he was drafted by the Jets or Finns because like others, I would be judging the guy entirely by his stats.  And since I'm NOT a Jet's or Finns fan I would not have watched EVERY one of their games and concluded that the stats do not tell the whole story about Allen.  Nor would I have been as aware of the real improvement seen in Allen's game after he returned from injury.  I consider improvement in a rookie QB's play to be a much more important metric then most of the statistics being tossed around. 

 

It's because I did watch every one of Allen's snaps from scrimmage and I watched them with a high degree of interest as his success or failure is critical to the Bill's future, that I can be bullish on him. 

 

But I do have friends who are Jets fans and if they had sat me down and got me to watch Allen's highlights I would have been impressed.  And if Allen played on the Dolphins and had games against the Bills like he did against the Finns I would be very concerned that Miami had gotten themselves a hell of a QB.  And for the record, I hadn't seen much of Darnold until the Bills/Jets game and I came away impressed and believe he has a similar potential as Allen to be a very good QB.

 

One final point is that I had watched several of Allen's games when he was in college.  I used to love watching those Mountain West games on late ESPN and I came away impressed with Allen.  It was obvious he needed a lot of work but he made throws I had never seen a QB make at any level of football.  I even thought wouldn't it be cool if the Bills could grab him in the 4th round.   So I do have a bias in favor of the guy.  Of course my bigger bias is in favor of the Buffalo Bills who will be in deep trouble if Allen turns out to be a bust. 

 

Oh and the fact we ended paying a much higher price for Allen then a 4th round pick is irrelevant IF he becomes a franchise level QB.  

 

Correct, IF.  

 

We'll see.  But if not, then I envision no scenario where McBeane are kept on, meaning we'll be back at the proverbial "square one" like we've been for years.  

 

Again, RISKY.  Very.  There were far less risky approaches to make us better.  That's the ultimate goal here, to make us playoff competitive.  

[Ronin]

4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I forgot to address this sentence which IMO is not correct.  While Darnold & Allen could be said to have played last year under "similar situations" the same CAN NOT be said about Jackson.  First, he didn't start until half way through the season giving him time to learn on the bench; 2nd Jackson played for a playoff caliber team with excellent TE's & O-line and a very effective running game.  IMO, If you put either Dranold or Allen on Baltimore last season they easily match what Jackson did and neither of them would have been shut down in the way Jackson & the Ravens offense was by SD in the playoffs.

 

Don't take this personally, but I'm not using your opinion, I'm using hard data.  That's exactly the problem in this place, opinions trump facts and hard data.  

 

Until week 17 Allen was DFL by a country mile in the Red Zone even well behind Rosen.  It was only after that Fins game, one game, where he essentially doubled his RZ stats that rendered him comparable to Rosen.  

 

He was ranked 35th of 35 in uncatchable passes.  That means he ranked behind Jackson, Darnold, Mayfield, and yes, even Rosen as such.  Statistically he ranked essentially right alongside Rosen.  

 

Whether or not it's your or anyone's opinion is irrelevant.  It's not my opinion either, it's facts and hard data that I'm basing my arguments on.  Anything to the contrary at this point, ANYTHING, is pure speculation.  The rest is nothing more than excuses.  We all get it, only a minority portion of Allen's issues actually had to do with him, the rest was the fault of the coaches, team, other players, etc.  

 

Great news however, our OL is now well above average, we finally have stud WRs, and Daboll's going to fix the rest.  So we're good.  

 

 

 

 

[Ronin]

37 minutes ago, billspro said:

I’m pretty sure Zay Jones said that play was his fault. That play doesn’t really show separation skills imo. 

 

Jones has no separation skills.  He didn't in college either.  

 

Anyone that didn't do their homework on him prior to drafting him, shame on them. 

 

From nfl.com's draft profile on Jones: 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Play speed is very average. Lacks vertical push to force cornerbacks to open and run early and doesn't have second gear to separate from coverage down the field. Thin frame. Struggles to find clean releases against press coverage due to play strength and foot quickness. High-volume production helped by high percentage of short throws and wide receiver screens. Sticky out of breaks and unable to shake tight coverage. Limited amount of burst and wiggle after the catch and won't create much more than is there. Not overly-committed as a run blocker.

 

Keep in mind, that was largely against defensive backs that aren't starting for any NFL team today.  

 

Either way, who did their homework, read that, and decided that Jones would be able to get separation in the NFL? 

Is that a wise take realizing that a player will be henceforth facing DBs far faster than the ones that he couldn't separate from to begin with?  

 

I know that I heeded it, and combined with Jones playing in formations that simply weren't used in the NFL, against inferior competition contrasted with the types of players that make it to the NFL, and in situations, namely garbage time, that saw him load up on gawdy numbers, often against second-teams, that was more than enough for me to come to a firm assessment.  That was one of the easier ones I've ever done with the least time effort in fact.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Ronin