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Interesting chart showing Bills as 6th most intelligent 4th down decision-making team in 2018


Logic

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10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I disagree. Ability to convert should be a factor, but IMO the second or third-most important.

 

Situation is most important. 

 

4th down conversion rates are statistically all over the place, due to the small sample size and the difference in likelihood of conversion in different situations, such as a 4th and 1 being far easier than a 4th and 18.

 

3rd down conversion rates are far more indicative of ability to convert, due to larger sample. But situation is still a huge factor. And 3rd down conversion rates go from 29% to 47% last year. There are none in single digits and nobody over 75%. They're gathered in a reasonably small range. Not to be too bad of a bore, but how much of the difference might be due to ... for example, only ... say, the Colts having an average 3rd down of 3rd and three while the Cards might have an average 3rd down of 3rd and five. Made up those numbers ... if anyone can be bothered to find the real ones, that'd be great. 

 

Point is, though, situation is by far the most important variable. Oh, and the Pats were 9th in 3rd down conversions. But 25th in 4th down conversions, at 50%, probably because they are a bit more situationally aggressive than most teams, and for good reason. Fewer times to need to make desperate conversion attempts, but more willing to try in non-desperate situations where the distance is a bit longer than most coaches would be comfortable with.

 

 

 

Nice post, Syhuang!!!

You disagree with me but also make my point.  A team should never go on fourth if they dont think they can make it.  A lot more teams will go on 4-1.  Because a lot more teams can make it.  NE will go on 4-3 more often than other teams because they can get it.  That would be why they are middle of the pack rather than in the top with us inspite of having the best staff.

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