What would a Shaq Lawson contract extension look like for the Buffalo Bills?

[HOUSE]

 

The former first-round pick is set to hit the open market a year from now.

 

 

By Matt Warren Jun 20, 2019, 9:00am EDT

 

Earlier this offseason, the Buffalo Bills declined to pick up former first-round selection Shaq Lawson’s fifth-year option. With that decision, Lawson will be a free agent following the 2019 season, but does that mean he couldn’t end up back in Buffalo on a different deal?

When Buffalo declined to pay Lawson, they turned down a one-year, $10 million extension. That was too rich for Buffalo’s blood. Using that as a guideline, let’s take a look at what type of contract a solid rotational piece can nab on the free agent market.

Lawson, aged 25, is angling for his second contract in the NFL and is not likely to take a hometown discount until he at least sees what other offers are out there following 2019. With 10 sacks and 76 tackles in 35 games over three seasons, he’s a decent defensive end in the league, but not among the great or elite players at the position.

You can’t compare Lawson’s numbers to that of the big free agent prize from 2019; Trey Flowers. Flowers has 6.5 or more sacks in each of his last three seasons (21 total) while racking up 164 tackles. His production is more than double that of Lawson.

Here are some better comparables:

Alex Okafor
Three years, $17.9 million ($11.5 guaranteed)
Kansas City Chiefs

At 28, Okafor is three years older than Lawson and finds himself on his third NFL team, joining the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason after a solid two-year stint in New Orleans. With the Saints, he had 4 and 4.5 sacks with 36 and 43 tackles in 2018 and 2017. He started 26 games over the last two seasons. Pro Football Focus actually ranked Lawson ahead of Okafor in 2018.

Trent Murphy
Three years, $22.5 million ($10.375 guaranteed)
Buffalo Bills

After averaging five sacks per season over his first three years, Murphy missed 2017 with a torn ACL. That didn’t stop Buffalo from signing him to a solid deal when his rookie contract expired. Murphy did have problems flip-flopping from DE to OLB in Washington, but in Buffalo he’s played only defensive end under Sean McDermott.

DaQuan Jones ($14 million guaranteed)
Three years, $21 million
Tennessee Titans

Jones was the Titans’ starter at defensive end by his second season and developed into a solid run defender at the end spot. He also contributed 3.5 sacks in his contract year before re-upping in Tennessee. With 102 tackles in the three years before his contract extension, he’s outpaced Lawson and been very healthy.

Contract projection

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/6/20/18683711/what-would-a-shaq-lawson-contract-extension-look-like-for-the-buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-2016

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by HOUSE

[PetermansRedemption]

Yikes. Just let him walk if that is the case. I really don’t feel like Lawson would be overly difficult to replace by a later round draft pick or a “prove it” type free agent. 

[HOUSE]

I will give him one bag of money but not two

Edited June 20, 2019 by HOUSE

[K-9]

At the moment, a disaster.

[transient]

[Max Fischer]

Regardless of his 2019 performance, I don't think the Bills re-sign Lawson. I can only see it if Lawson performs at a pro-bowl level AND he's willing to give a hometown discount (which seems very doubtful for a guy who might be playing for his last contract).  

[Rigotz]

He will play well this year because he seems to be a self-centered guy (based on following his instagram for several years).

Hopefully he plays well so we can trade him for a pick.

 

There is a zero percent chance we extend him. He doesn't fit in with this regime at all. He's a classic Rex guy.

[Seasons1992]

I don't see him back at all. For who/for what? 

[nucci]

He won't get one

[Foxx]

12 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

He will play well this year because he seems to be a self-centered guy (based on following his instagram for several years).

Hopefully he plays well so we can trade him for a pick.

 

There is a zero percent chance we extend him. He doesn't fit in with this regime at all. He's a classic Rex guy.

umm... we declined his fifth year option. i don't know that without a contract for next year, anyone is going to want to trade for him.

[Victory Formation]

I think 3 years 18 million. I'd gladly have him back on a deal like that. He's not what we expected but he's a good player.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I see this topic as a very low priory at present.

 

Lets see what he does on the field. 

[Irv]

Can't remember him ever making a big play.  I would cut him after camp.  If you don't cut him then I'd offer $25K per year and two autographed Zay Jones frying pans.   Maybe the Jills could use him.  Another Whaley blunder. 

 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by Irv

[Coach Tuesday]

He'd sign it a half-second late.

[billsbackto81]

It would "Look" premature.

 

A little off topic but I don't feel like starting a Thread.

 

Who was the better player heading into FA?   Shaw Lawson or Preston Brown?

 

I find them both to be to very similar in the sense that their both serviceable but not spectacular.

Edited June 20, 2019 by billsbackto81

[ROCBillsBeliever]

6 minutes ago, Irv said:

Can't remember him ever making a big play.  I would cut him after camp.  If you don't cut him then I'd offer $25K per year and two autographed Zay Jones frying pans.   Maybe the Jills could use him.  Another Whaley blunder. 

 

Zay Jones Frying Pans, you say? What are you willing to part with them for?

???

[Irv]

2 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Zay Jones Frying Pans, you say? What are you willing to part with them for?

???

 

Well first they have to be surgically removed.

[CuddyDark]

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

[Victory Formation]

3 minutes ago, CuddyDark said:

If I'm Lawson I wouldn't resign with the Bills. I think he's a good player but will never been respected or seen as a good player here, mostly because Bills fans don't understand football or his role. He's not supposed to have ten sacks. People need to get over the sack numbers. Also I think he should go to a 34 team and play one gap 5tech like he did in college.

I think we haven't seen his best yet. He's good at setting the edge and I do think he could have a couple 8 sack years on top of that.

[Wsam4031]

was just looking at that 2016 draft and man there were not a lot of good players to come out of that draft. here were a handlful but looks like a pretty bad draft year