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Phil The Thrill

Matt Parrino Projects The Bills 53 Man Roster

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Pretty accurate. 

QBs & OL correct

RBs correct but still not a DiMarco fan.

WRs solid, maybe swap McKenzie for Sills?

DL set, maybe Yarbrough over Love?

TEs, don't know enough from Sweeney to upend Croom?

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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I’m mostly basing it on the momentum Ray Ray has built this offseason and how McKenzies bigger value was as a returner and we are going to replace him in that role with Roberts.  While McKenzie was a good mid season find and value last year on a team lacking speed at the WR spots, he also didn’t really have reliable hands.  Several bad drops himself.  

 

I just think Ray Ray has a little bit more upside as a WR.  I can also see Sills competing for that spot, but getting dinged up early in OTAs didn’t do him any favors in keeping up.  McKenzie has a shot still of course, and it’s going to be a fun watch to see how the whole WR group competes and shakes out.

 

Im personally rooting for Sills because I like his story and the different type of skill set he potentially brings.  But this WR battle is going to be tough and there is no guarantee they keep more than 5 which will make cracking this roster for guys like Sills, Ray Ray, and McKenzie a very tall task.  

 

I still think it will be 6 guys we keep personally, but keeping 5 or 7 wouldn’t shock me 

I'd select McKenzie over McCloud as the very last wr.  Ray Ray is awful....

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So McKenzie is the only player that I think is in danger of being cut that I really, really want on this team and I think his value goes way beyond possible return value. He is a swiss army knife on offense and I think his explosiveness adds something to our arsenal. 

 

McCloud is the only guy who offers a similar skillset and I think they probably are after one spot. McCloud has had a good spring but so has McKenzie who has been out there with the 1s as much as any other receiver. I just don't see McCloud's upside and as someone who watched him a fair bit at Clemson I didn't ever really see it. When he was out there last year he was atrocious he couldn't run a route. I still have him as my "guy to disappear when the pads go on" but I do think the winner of the McKenzie / McCloud battle has a significantly higher % chance of winning a roster spot than the winner of the Sills / Williams battle - just based on the offense they want to run. 

 

I have nothing against McKenzie, and actually was not aware he had a strong spring too as I just don't recall hearing his name much.  I do realize and liked his "gadget" value, but without his need as a returner, then his hands must get better IMO to best serve in that gadget role.  Like I said, I heard Ray Ray a lot during the spring so far, so just seemed he had more momentum heading into camp.  

 

You would know more about Ray Ray than me as I didn't pay that much attention to him at Clemson.  I agree about his play last year, but they also really helped develop Foster and then this spring Ray Ray keeps getting mentioned as a guy turning heads.  And given him and McKenzie are essentially vying for the same type of role, just seemed to me he had a little more momentum.  But spring means nothing of course, it all often changes once the pads go on.  

 

I do still think Duke will make this roster as he is starting to come on and his real potential will start to come out when things get physical with the pads on.  He just has another skill set the others don't and I think with the injuries at TE, having a bigger WR target to go with or speedsters and slot guys will help balance the group out.  I actually think Duke has a higher chance than McKenzie/McLoud for this reason, especially with Cole here and a stable of RB's who can catch out of the backfield too.  Speed is neutralized to a degree in the Redzone, you need guys who can be physical and and high point balls too.  

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43 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd select McKenzie over McCloud as the very last wr.  Ray Ray is awful....

 

Keep in mind, I wasn't basing this off of last year...I just had not heard much about McKenzie this off season and kept seeing Ray Ray get pointed out as a guy turning heads this spring.  So was solely based on the perceived momentum from that really.  

 

McKenzie for me just needs to have better hands...I just dont want to keep seeing the ball hit the turf after hitting our receivers hands (a reason I have been so critical of Zay in the past) and McKenzie had some doozy drops right in the hands.  He was a nice addition last year when we needed it, and appreciated his efforts.  Be great if he has a strong preseason as he is quite explosive.  I dont really have a preference here of the two, just had heard more exciting things this spring on Ray Ray.  

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So McKenzie is the only player that I think is in danger of being cut that I really, really want on this team and I think his value goes way beyond possible return value. He is a swiss army knife on offense and I think his explosiveness adds something to our arsenal. 

 

McCloud is the only guy who offers a similar skillset and I think they probably are after one spot. McCloud has had a good spring but so has McKenzie who has been out there with the 1s as much as any other receiver. I just don't see McCloud's upside and as someone who watched him a fair bit at Clemson I didn't ever really see it. When he was out there last year he was atrocious he couldn't run a route. I still have him as my "guy to disappear when the pads go on" but I do think the winner of the McKenzie / McCloud battle has a significantly higher % chance of winning a roster spot than the winner of the Sills / Williams battle - just based on the offense they want to run. 

I agree about McKenzie. He was a great addition last season, and it was really impressive with how quickly he contributed. There's a lot about him to admire-- his acceleration, his cuts, and his versatility. He also threw down 110% every play he was on the field. And, he is always smiling. That might not play too big with a lot of fans, but I put attitude, and character high on my list of things I want on the team. That's just me.

 

My fear for him is that between Roberts on ST, and Beasley on offense, the FO might feel his role is too diminished to keep a spot on the 53. I believe they value him highly as a player. I just fear they might see him as redundant.

 

And, other than approximate size, vaguely Irish surnames, and propensities to smile, I don't really compare McKenzie to McCloud at all. 

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25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I have nothing against McKenzie, and actually was not aware he had a strong spring too as I just don't recall hearing his name much.  I do realize and liked his "gadget" value, but without his need as a returner, then his hands must get better IMO to best serve in that gadget role.  Like I said, I heard Ray Ray a lot during the spring so far, so just seemed he had more momentum heading into camp.  

 

You would know more about Ray Ray than me as I didn't pay that much attention to him at Clemson.  I agree about his play last year, but they also really helped develop Foster and then this spring Ray Ray keeps getting mentioned as a guy turning heads.  And given him and McKenzie are essentially vying for the same type of role, just seemed to me he had a little more momentum.  But spring means nothing of course, it all often changes once the pads go on.  

 

I do still think Duke will make this roster as he is starting to come on and his real potential will start to come out when things get physical with the pads on.  He just has another skill set the others don't and I think with the injuries at TE, having a bigger WR target to go with or speedsters and slot guys will help balance the group out.  I actually think Duke has a higher chance than McKenzie/McLoud for this reason, especially with Cole here and a stable of RB's who can catch out of the backfield too.  Speed is neutralized to a degree in the Redzone, you need guys who can be physical and and high point balls too.  

 

I think to make it over one of the slot / gadget guys Williams will have to be obviously better. And at this point that is a long shot. 

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Keep in mind, I wasn't basing this off of last year...I just had not heard much about McKenzie this off season and kept seeing Ray Ray get pointed out as a guy turning heads this spring.  So was solely based on the perceived momentum from that really.  

 

McKenzie for me just needs to have better hands...I just dont want to keep seeing the ball hit the turf after hitting our receivers hands (a reason I have been so critical of Zay in the past) and McKenzie had some doozy drops right in the hands.  He was a nice addition last year when we needed it, and appreciated his efforts.  Be great if he has a strong preseason as he is quite explosive.  I dont really have a preference here of the two, just had heard more exciting things this spring on Ray Ray.  

His drop rate is 3.3%, which is pretty average.

Someone could correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that WRs who average more shorter targets tend to have a higher drop rate. Edelman's drop rate was 7.4%!

Mind you, I don't put a lot of stock in these stats, as far as proving any sort of point-- just for placing context. And, other than one kinda bad drop that I remember (and I don't even remember the game, or opponent), I don't remember McKenzie as having particularly bad hands. Quite the contrary, IMO.

Edited by Rocky Landing

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6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think to make it over one of the slot / gadget guys Williams will have to be obviously better. And at this point that is a long shot. 

Better than... he was in the CFL? In OTAs? Better than McKenzie, or the other bubble players?

Also, not sure why this would be such a long shot? 

 

In my view, I think Williams has an opportunity to carve out a role on this team, assuming he fits onto special teams, which seems perfectly doable. He's an exceptionally physical WR, and blocker. He seems like he could be a natural on ST, and also an asset on multiple wide sets where downfield blocking is a necessity. Is there another WR on this team with that level, or type of physicality? Maybe John Brown, but they're not going to put him on ST, or give his too many blocking assignments, I wouldn't think. Nor Zay, for that matter.

 

Suffice to say, I'm a bit of a Duke fan, at this point, so my opinions are certainly tainted. But, he is definitely a guy that I feel will excel once the practices become more physical. 

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

His drop rate is 3.3%, which is pretty average.

Someone could correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that WRs who average more shorter targets tend to have a higher drop rate. Edelman's drop rate was 7.4%!

Mind you, I don't put a lot of stock in these stats, as far as proving any sort of point-- just for placing context. And, other than one kinda bad drop that I remember (and I don't even remember the game, or opponent), I don't remember McKenzie as having particularly bad hands. Quite the contrary, IMO.

 

He shows up in this video 5 times despite only being here part of the season and only having 30 targets:  That would be a real drop rate of 16.6% not 3.3%...and several of them are very bad drops.  I liked McKenzie, but honestly the "drop rate" stat is never accurate as its all subjective and never accurately tracked.  For me, the eye ball test here says it was worse than that and not good enough last year. 

 

This is why I feel like he needs to improve his hands if he wants to make this roster this year, these kinds of drops are not going to be tolerated by this regime.  McD and Beane have both emphasized this offseason getting guys on the filed this year who will catch the ball. 

 

Here are where his drops are at.  Also, there are a few other drops in this video where you can not see or hear who the WR is, but I was able to track it down using the game clock in the clips and the play by play...none were Mckenzie in those, so these are his only 5.  The others were mostly Andre Holmes or a TE where you couldn't identify the player in this video.  

 

0:25 - BAD drop

0:38 - BAD drop

1:24 - BAD drop

3:36 - Tough catch attempt, still hit his hands

5:10 - BAD drop

 

 

Edited by Alphadawg7

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Several things I don't agree with here:

- I don't think TJ Yeldon makes the cut.

- I do think Perry makes the cut.

- Is DiMarco some sort of sacred cow?

- I didn't realize that Christian Wade could be on the team and not count against the 53. I thought he just didn't count against the 90. Does he get to suit up?

- I don't think Tyler Kroft will ever play a down as a Bill. I believe he will be cut as soon as they are allowed.

- Mike Love over Eli Harold (or Eddie Yarbrough, for that matter)? I don't think so.

- I hope they hold onto Tyree, but doubt they will. 

Tyree to PS obviously.
and to that point , i think they will try to stack the practice squad and keep fingers crossed. Guys like Sweeney and  Harold . Sirles?? etc

no way 7 WRS

 allen can only see two and possibly a TE after the snap.........

Edited by 3rdand12

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He shows up in this video 5 times despite only being here part of the season and only having 30 targets:  That would be a real drop rate of 16.6% not 3.3%...and several of them are very bad drops.  I liked McKenzie, but honestly the "drop rate" stat is never accurate as its all subjective and never accurately tracked.  For me, the eye ball test here says it was worse than that and not good enough last year. 

 

This is why I feel like he needs to improve his hands if he wants to make this roster this year, these kinds of drops are not going to be tolerated by this regime.  McD and Beane have both emphasized this offseason getting guys on the filed this year who will catch the ball. 

 

Here are where his drops are at.  Also, there are a few other drops in this video where you can not see or hear who the WR is, but I was able to track it down using the game clock in the clips and the play by play...none were Mckenzie in those, so these are his only 5.  The others were mostly Andre Holmes or a TE where you couldn't identify the player in this video.  

 

0:25 - BAD drop

0:38 - BAD drop

1:24 - BAD drop

3:36 - Tough catch attempt, still hit his hands

5:10 - BAD drop

 

 

 

The first and last clip are the same play and I thought that was a good play by the defender. A top flight WR catches it for sure and nobody is arguing McKenzie is that but there are plenty of receivers for whom that is incomplete. There are two bad drops on that video and two tougher ones. 

2 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Better than... he was in the CFL? In OTAs? Better than McKenzie, or the other bubble players?

Also, not sure why this would be such a long shot? 

 

In my view, I think Williams has an opportunity to carve out a role on this team, assuming he fits onto special teams, which seems perfectly doable. He's an exceptionally physical WR, and blocker. He seems like he could be a natural on ST, and also an asset on multiple wide sets where downfield blocking is a necessity. Is there another WR on this team with that level, or type of physicality? Maybe John Brown, but they're not going to put him on ST, or give his too many blocking assignments, I wouldn't think. Nor Zay, for that matter.

 

Suffice to say, I'm a bit of a Duke fan, at this point, so my opinions are certainly tainted. But, he is definitely a guy that I feel will excel once the practices become more physical. 

 

I think to make it Duke has to be definitely better than the other bubble guys. I don't think this regime is desperate to have a big guy. I think the bits of Duke I have seen his route running needs work, his blocking needs work and his consistency needs work. There are whispers already that he is behind in terms of knowing the playbook too. I think he has a chance to make the team, there is one possibly two receiver jobs to shoot for...... but I don't think ties go to the big guy. That doesn't seem based on everything we see and hear to be the offense they have been installing. I think ties go to the gadget / slot guys based on what it appears Daboll wants to run. That was my point. 

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Very good predictions.

Senorise over DiMarco

Ray Ray over McKenzie

Darryl Johnson over Love

Julian Stanford over Thompson

 

I'm thinking we need to keep Bush and another CB.  Two more cuts.  We are going to cut some talented OL, WR, TE, CB.

I am guessing Beane pulls off a trade or two before roster cutdown.  That is just too much talent to give away without any compensation whatsoever 

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27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The first and last clip are the same play and I thought that was a good play by the defender. A top flight WR catches it for sure and nobody is arguing McKenzie is that but there are plenty of receivers for whom that is incomplete. There are two bad drops on that video and two tougher ones. 

 

Ha, good catch, it is...by the time I got through 5 min of it I didn't recognize it nor was it the same clip...same play, just first one was the live play and the last clip was the replay, guess they just wanted a closing quick clip lol.  

 

I still think the other 3 are bad drops, and the one is a tough catch.  I like Mckenzie, but 4 drops in 30 targets is still not great as that is still over 13% drop rate.  

 

On your other comments to someone on Duke, he ended the mini camp strong and most think he wont really start to shine until the physicality starts when the pads go on.  But I do agree, he wont just get the spot because he's a different make up, he will have to earn it and beat out the competition just like all the position battles with this regime.  But I do like his chances as I think his skills will compliment Josh nicely.  In that 5 min drop reel, you can see how badly Josh needs someone who has decent catch radius.  Anything away from the body was just getting dropped left and right last year.  

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2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ha, good catch, it is...by the time I got through 5 min of it I didn't recognize it nor was it the same clip...same play, just first one was the live play and the last clip was the replay, guess they just wanted a closing quick clip lol.  

 

I still think the other 3 are bad drops, and the one is a tough catch.  I like Mckenzie, but 4 drops in 30 targets is still not great as that is still over 13% drop rate.  

 

On your other comments to someone on Duke, he ended the mini camp strong and most think he wont really start to shine until the physicality starts when the pads go on.  But I do agree, he wont just get the spot because he's a different make up, he will have to earn it and beat out the competition just like all the position battles with this regime.  But I do like his chances as I think his skills will compliment Josh nicely.  In that 5 min drop reel, you can see how badly Josh needs someone who has decent catch radius.  Anything away from the body was just getting dropped left and right last year.  

 

I do think Bills fans are a bit obsessed with having a "big guy" in the receiver room. Just not sure the regime are as obsessed with it. 

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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do think Bills fans are a bit obsessed with having a "big guy" in the receiver room. Just not sure the regime are as obsessed with it. 

 

Im personally obsessed with having a WR who can catch the ball consistently.  Zay, Foster, McKenzie are all on that drops blooper reel way too much...John Browns catch rate isnt stellar either.  I watched Bills TE's and WR's drop many...not just a couple...but many sure Touchdowns last year, not to mention all the drive killing drops too.    

 

I have yet to see any WR on our roster be a guy who can go get the ball and ***** it from the air consistently.  And with a big arm and tall QB, I want to someone out there who makes the play rather than drop it or tip it to the opposing defense for a turnover.  Cole Beasley is by far the guy with the best hands on the team right now, but he's like 4 feet tall.  

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44 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im personally obsessed with having a WR who can catch the ball consistently.  Zay, Foster, McKenzie are all on that drops blooper reel way too much...John Browns catch rate isnt stellar either.  I watched Bills TE's and WR's drop many...not just a couple...but many sure Touchdowns last year, not to mention all the drive killing drops too.    

 

I have yet to see any WR on our roster be a guy who can go get the ball and ***** it from the air consistently.  And with a big arm and tall QB, I want to someone out there who makes the play rather than drop it or tip it to the opposing defense for a turnover.  Cole Beasley is by far the guy with the best hands on the team right now, but he's like 4 feet tall.  

 

Indeed we are yet to see that guy. And if that guy emerges he will make the roster. Be he 6ft3 or 5ft8. 

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13 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Wasn’t Preston Brown MLB? 

'Zo definitely lined up in the middle for a portion of the game (play #4 in the link shows one instance of this). Watch the man do it. He's good at it. 

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On ‎6‎/‎17‎/‎2019 at 9:27 PM, BarleyNY said:

I don’t think we will see a 27/23 split between offense and defense.  I’d expect one more DB and one less RB for starters. 

 

On ‎6‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 8:25 AM, SoCal Deek said:

Excellent point! You’d think if a guy wrote an article on this subject that he’d have researched that from the get go. Does anyone know what a normal roster ratio would be? How far from 25/25 do teams stray?

 

This is not gospel of course, as every team is different (in where their talent is allocated and what offensive and defensive schemes they run), but the article linked below at least gives a basic breakdown for a base offense/base 4-3 defense (kind of an average):

 

Offensive side of the football:  (24 total players on 53-man roster: 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 9 OLs, 3 TEs, 6 WRs)

Defensive side of the football: (26 total players on 53-man roster: 9 DLs, 7 LBs, 10 DBs---6 CBs, 4 S)

Special Teams: (3 total players on 53-man roster, game-day roster 1 K, 1 P, 1 LS) 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1640782-the-anatomy-of-a-53-man-roster-in-the-nfl?report=reader

 

I think we could probably go with 8 DL and 6 LB this year to keep an extra RB (Yeldon) and TE (Croom). So, 26 on offense, 24 on defense.

 

So, from this guys 53 man roster, I would

Add: Croom, Yarbrough, Stanford, Pitts, and Bush

Drop: McKenzie, Sweeney (PS), Love (PS), J. Johnson (PS), C. Thompson (PS) [Unless any of the late round rookies really show out in training camp, passing a vet, I think its practice squad for a number of them. 6th and 7th round rookies are not locks anymore, just because they were drafted]

 

Also on the outside looking in: S. Perry, D. Johnson (PS), E. Harold

 

To me, it looks like the big decisions will come with the numbers at RB, TE, and DL this year. 

 

 

On ‎6‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 4:43 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

McKenzie for me just needs to have better hands...

 

He has also had 8 fumbles (though only 3 of them were lost), over his two years in Denver and Buffalo. I assume that includes his return touches, which would make that 8 fumbles in 85 total touches (rush, rec, returns). McKenzie's value to the team last year was speed, special teams return work, and jet sweeps and slot work on the offense. I think John Brown could run the jet sweeps, Beasley and Zay take care of any slot duty, and Andre Roberts is a better return man who handles both punt and kickoff. And Foster and Brown are our speed guys. Heck even Zay is close with McKenzie (McKenzie ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at combine, Zay had a 4.45). I agree, I just don't know where McKenzie contributes this year.

 

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