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MJS

All Bills Starting QB Index and Ranking

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I indexed every QB who ever started a game for the Bills across 24 different metrics. Thought others might think this is interesting. I actually shared this in another thread but I think only a couple people saw it since it was pretty buried.

 

I wanted to look at pure effectiveness and efficiency, so I looked at game by game effectiveness, not overall production. So someone who started one game could potentially outscore someone who started for 10 years (in fact we see with with Matt Barkley, who scores high in the index). The exceptions to this is I scored playoff appearances, championships, pro bowl selections, times all-pro/all-afl, etc. I also included comebacks and game winning drives. So those aren't just game by game efficiency metrics, but I thought they were indicators of successful QBing and should be included. I also included playoff games and playoff stats for these QB's.

 

Top 10 QB's in the index:

image.png.a223c487037d110fe3c87d504bded35c.png

(Blue indicates a playoff starting QB. Red indicates current QB's on the team today)

 

Kemp got major points from having 6 all-star appearances, 2 championships (I counted these the same as an AFC championship game), being 3 time All-AFL, and 1 time AFL MVP. He's a highly decorated QB.

 

Bottom 10:

image.png.80d46e303d5a711d2ecae07478267d54.png

(Nathan Peterman was not much higher than these. His saving grace was getting a single win, even though he didn't technically finish that game)

 

Josh Allen ranked 17th, just after Trent Edwards and Rob Johnson. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 12th. His case is interesting because he had decent numbers but horrible W/L numbers. EJ Manuel is at 23rd, just after JP Losman.

 

Tyrod Taylor has a high rank. This is due to his stellar interception percentage and the fact that he went to a playoff game and a pro bowl.

 

Considering eras these guys played in, I consider Brian Brohm to be the worst QB to ever start a game for the Bills.

 

I'll probably create another index in the future that takes overall production into account as well, but this one is focused on QB efficiency, not as much production.

 

What do you think?

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How on Earth is Billy Joe Hobert not near the bottom? Did he start more games than the infamous "didn't know the plays" disaster?

 

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If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed.

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed.

 

FOOTNOTE: Gary Marangi feels slighted..................

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8 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

How does Josh Allen rate under Rob Johnson? Or even Trent Edwards

Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index.

 

Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc.

3 hours ago, Hellcamino said:

How on Earth is Billy Joe Hobert not near the bottom? Did he start more games than the infamous "didn't know the plays" disaster?

 

It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games.

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14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

FOOTNOTE: Gary ‘Maybe I should aim for Blount?’ Marangi feels slighted..................

I won’t say I fixed it for you, just added information...😁

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed.

Yes, that appears to be the case, but also era has something to do with that. I did not control for era at all. Just used their raw stats. Tyrod Taylor's passing stats would have been MVP worthy in the 1960's. Today? Not so much.

 

But let's not take away what he did accomplish. He was excellent at not throwing interceptions. He went to a pro bowl. He started a playoff game. I know fans don't like him, but he did actually a respectable job in Buffalo.

23 minutes ago, Marv's Neighbor said:

Lamonica #7??  No wonder we traded him.:doh:

His high ranking is due to the fact that he won every single game he started. Win percentage was an important metric in the index. I didn't adjust points according to number of games started.

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I am lost as no explanation of the index weighting.  Wins, TDs, INTs, etc.  Just a numerical index with no background.

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I had a list similar to this, but it was league wide and Josh Allen was near the very top!

 

ok. The list was in alphabetical order. But still...

 

 

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Thanks for the effort it took to accumulate the stats and create the index, but I'm not sure what, if anything, it proves because you are comparing QBs from totally different eras -- and even different leagues -- as well as comparing QBs who were backups with long term starters and those that played for the Bills for more than a decade with those who played only a few games.   How would Joe Ferguson, Drew Bledsoe or Doug Flutie have done if their teams had had as much talent as the Jim Kelly's teams had had?  Conversely, how would Jim Kelly have fared on the 2004-2005 or the 2010-2012 Bills teams?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Thanks for the effort it took to accumulate the stats and create the index, but I'm not sure what, if anything, it proves because you are comparing QBs from totally different eras -- and even different leagues -- as well as comparing QBs who were backups with long term starters and those that played for the Bills for more than a decade with those who played only a few games.   How would Joe Ferguson, Drew Bledsoe or Doug Flutie have done if their teams had had as much talent as the Jim Kelly's teams had had?  Conversely, how would Jim Kelly have fared on the 2004-2005 or the 2010-2012 Bills teams?

I'm not trying to prove anything. Just posted it for fun.

 

We can only measure the things we can measure. There's no way to really account for differences in era, strength of the rest of the team, etc. All we have are the stats.

9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

 

Edited by MJS

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31 minutes ago, MJS said:

But let's not take away what he did accomplish. He was excellent at not throwing interceptions. He went to a pro bowl. He started a playoff game. I know fans don't like him, but he did actually a respectable job in Buffalo.

 

He only threw it as a last resort period. Tyrod was a serviceable placeholder. But he also had the benefit of the best Bills rosters of the drought era supporting him. On some of those late 00s Bills teams he is a 4 win Quarterback. 

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47 minutes ago, MJS said:

Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index.

 

Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc.

It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games.

Factors to reveal the true quality of Josh Allen must be dropped balls, 3rd and long situations and rushing. Excluding those details are presenting half of what Josh Allen or even Tyrod Taylor achieved.

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53 minutes ago, MJS said:

Probably because rushing stats were not included in the index.

 

Josh Allen's rookie stats were not actually all that impressive. Poor interception percentage. Below .500 win percentage. Low completion percentage. Etc.

It appears that he did not ever START a game for the Bills (According to pro football reference). Perhaps he only came in as a reserve. I only included QB's who started games.

Good thing wins are a team stat and not a one person out of 46 stat.

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31 minutes ago, DieHardBillsFan said:

Factors to reveal the true quality of Josh Allen must be dropped balls, 3rd and long situations and rushing. Excluding those details are presenting half of what Josh Allen or even Tyrod Taylor achieved.

This index is looks at passing only.

29 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Good thing wins are a team stat and not a one person out of 46 stat.

As are all stats.

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Tyrod Taylor is the 4th best Quarterback ever to have played for the Bills then the history of this franchise must be even more rotten than I believed.

 

i humbly and thankfully accept the beat-down that cheering for this team has inflicted on me since 1973

 

more please....

 

 

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He only threw it as a last resort period. Tyrod was a serviceable placeholder. But he also had the benefit of the best Bills rosters of the drought era supporting him. On some of those late 00s Bills teams he is a 4 win Quarterback. 

Yeah I was a Tyrod supporter until I saw what it looks when a QB actually throws the ball. Fitzpatrick has those teams in the playoffs. Allen has those teams in the playoffs. 

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12 hours ago, MJS said:

I indexed every QB who ever started a game for the Bills across 24 different metrics. Thought others might think this is interesting. I actually shared this in another thread but I think only a couple people saw it since it was pretty buried.

 

I wanted to look at pure effectiveness and efficiency, so I looked at game by game effectiveness, not overall production. So someone who started one game could potentially outscore someone who started for 10 years (in fact we see with with Matt Barkley, who scores high in the index). The exceptions to this is I scored playoff appearances, championships, pro bowl selections, times all-pro/all-afl, etc. I also included comebacks and game winning drives. So those aren't just game by game efficiency metrics, but I thought they were indicators of successful QBing and should be included. I also included playoff games and playoff stats for these QB's.

 

Top 10 QB's in the index:

image.png.a223c487037d110fe3c87d504bded35c.png

(Blue indicates a playoff starting QB. Red indicates current QB's on the team today)

 

Kemp got major points from having 6 all-star appearances, 2 championships (I counted these the same as an AFC championship game), being 3 time All-AFL, and 1 time AFL MVP. He's a highly decorated QB.

 

Bottom 10:

image.png.80d46e303d5a711d2ecae07478267d54.png

(Nathan Peterman was not much higher than these. His saving grace was getting a single win, even though he didn't technically finish that game)

 

Josh Allen ranked 17th, just after Trent Edwards and Rob Johnson. Ryan Fitzpatrick is 12th. His case is interesting because he had decent numbers but horrible W/L numbers. EJ Manuel is at 23rd, just after JP Losman.

 

Tyrod Taylor has a high rank. This is due to his stellar interception percentage and the fact that he went to a playoff game and a pro bowl.

 

Considering eras these guys played in, I consider Brian Brohm to be the worst QB to ever start a game for the Bills.

 

I'll probably create another index in the future that takes overall production into account as well, but this one is focused on QB efficiency, not as much production.

 

What do you think?

 

You are going to be burned alive for suggesting Tyrod was better than the beloved egomaniacal midget.

 

to me it looks just as reasonable as anything else I’ve seen. 

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Yeah, Tyrod is 4th, factual and ironic all in one 

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‘Figures lie, and liars figure’ goes the old adage.  The first part of the saying holds true for the raw data, the second part for the apologists advocating their QB as the best.

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2 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

i humbly and thankfully accept the beat-down that cheering for this team has inflicted on me since 1973

 

more please....

 

 

 

Image result for dazed and confused paddle gif

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55 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

‘Figures lie, and liars figure’ goes the old adage.  The first part of the saying holds true for the raw data, the second part for the apologists advocating their QB as the best.

 

what are they arguing, that Flutie was the best???

 

😀

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