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5 Reasons the 2019 Bills defense could be historically good.


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1 hour ago, H2o said:

Said this in another thread a few months ago, but the scoring defense was skewed by a few bad games. The Bills gave up a total of 374 points, but we gave up 156 of those points in 4 games. The first game of the year Baltimore had 47, the Chargers scored 31, Colts had 37, and the Bears 41. In those games it seemed like once that train started rolling it was all downhill. You average out the points over the other 12 and we gave up 18.1 points per game which would have been good for 3rd in the league if not those handful of poor performances. I'm not saying that those 4 games don't matter, I'm just saying that sometimes the numbers aren't what they all seem to be. 

 

If you checked the scores of all the games of the top ten scoring defense teams in 2018, I'm sure you would find a similar pattern where several bad games raise the teams' average points against.   The #1 Scoring Defense, the Bears, gave up 30, 31, and 38 points but still averaged 17.7 points a game.   The Ravens, Titans, Texans, and Jaguars, the other top 5 scoring defense teams, had 2 games each in which they gave up 30 or more points.  None of the top 5 scoring defenses gave up 40 or more points even once. Truly good defenses simply don't give up 30 or more points, much less 40+ points, in a quarter of their games.

 

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On 6/13/2019 at 6:48 AM, eball said:

I like your optimism, Montoya.  Even better, it is grounded in a good bit of factual reasoning rather than just "we should be great!"

 

I believe the defense will be significantly ahead of the offense the entire summer.  I predict much hand-wringing during training camp about how Josh is not "lighting it up" but the truth is that the Bills' defense is very good.  By the time the regular season hits, my hope is that the offense has been "sharpened" by practicing against their own defense and as a result, Josh will be prepared for whatever an opponent throws at him.

There is a lot to what you are saying. Iron sharpens iron!!

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2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

    "  9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey WEO,

 

I set the bar really high for the defense in this post for a purpose.  If I had written that post and said our defense has the chance to be "really, really good this year!" what does that get you?  Does anyone think our defense isn't pretty good already?  Where is the discussion about that opinion?

 

If I say they have a chance to be a historically good defense, ala the '85 Bears, now we have a discussion on our hands with some people saying there is a chance if things break right for the defense to really be special, others saying they will be really good but probably not at the level of '85 Bears, and some like yourself thinking that there is not a snowball's chance in hell we have the makings of that type of historic defense.

 

It's a message board.  I post stuff here to express my opinion, AND hopefully to give people something to chew on for a little bit.  I enjoy the give and take with people as long as its respectful.  If you read my post again I don't say they are going to be the next '85 Bears, I ask if it's possible. I lay out why I think this defense is primed to take another step forward this season.  It's a long way until we start playing football.  I'm just looking to talk some football until then.  What else is there to do but speculate a little bit in June about what may happen in December?  ?

 

Inigo"

 

By your logic, any middle to upper third of the pack D has the chance to be "historically good".  This D wasn't a rookie Ed Oliver away for greatness.  And as for the AFCE, Leveon Bell is now in the division and the Bills D isn't good against the run.  Also, they will have to face Kareem Hunt this year.

 

 

All fair points WEO.  

 

Bell might not find success as easy in the Jet's offense this season with a questionable offensive line and a less robust passing attack to pull defenders out of the box.  I'm curious to see how he does this year.  I'm a big Kareem Hunt fan.  He should be back Week 7, I think we play the Browns in Cleveland in Week 10.  That game will be a real test for our defense.  The Brown's offense looks stacked.  

 

Can't wait to see how it all plays out.  

 

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20 hours ago, akcash said:

I love Edmunds... I think he is a huge weapon in coverage and a sideline to sideline linebacker all day... if he played slb he would be maybe the best in the league... I think he has a long way to go between the tackles against the run and he could be the sole difference in the run defense IF he can apply the proper instincts and physicality between the tackles. I think the transition to MLB was a pretty overwhelming task for him against the run last year and I think our run defense at times suffered due to it... Also a major hit to the run defense was when Milano went down. (And Taron Johnson as a previous poster said.)

 

 

 

I actually think Edmunds might be the key this year for our defense to improve.  Last year he had flashes of greatness, also had games, notably versus the Pats where he was a liability.  belcihek ran right at him and/or had him faked  out constantly out of position mis-pursuing plays.

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18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Nice post.   It makes a lot of sense that the defense could be much better.  

 

I think Edmunds is a huge question mark.  I have a good deal of confidence in Allen making the big second-season jump in performance; not so much in Edmunds.   

 

As you note, if the offense gets better, that will help a lot.  Field position, time on the field, score all should be working more in the Bills' favor this year.

 

 

I think Edmunds is the key to the defense improving.  The reason the Pats ran so effectively versus the Bills in game 2 is because belichek devised his game plan at misdirecting Edmunds or running right at him.  

 

The one factor to remember is the kid is in fact a kid last year at age 20.

 

Here are some of his weaknesses identified before the draft and ALL of them were on display last year.

  • Instincts are average and relies on athletic gifts
  • Can be a step slow to diagnose
  • Lured by misdirection
  • Will take random downhill paths that trap him in the quagmire
  • Patience is lacking
  • Races ahead of plays and voids his leverage and run fits at times
  • Mental busts in man coverage hurt his team
  • Takes time to process moving pieces
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I don't believe we have enough ELITE talent to be a historically good defense. We have Tre White who could be counted as elite. That's about all. I know people argue that Jerry Hughes is elite, but I believe he doesn't have the sack production, regardless of pressures, to warrant that. I do think he is very good.

 

So yeah, we need one or more elite level guys. I'm hoping Oliver can be the next one.

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On 6/13/2019 at 5:56 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

Obviously, the rushing defense was our achilles heel.  We had three game last season where we gave up 200+ rushing yards.  

 

Week 7       At Indy            220 yards    Loss

Week 12    Home Jags    226 yards     Win

Week 16    At Pats            273 yards    Loss

 

It would be easy to think that the reason our defense's pass stats were so stout was because teams could just run the ball successfully against us and didn't have to pass, but I don't think that is the case.  Our run defense was still ranked in the top half of the league even with those three 200+ yard games. I think our secondary was simply playing at an elite level last year.

This will be the main question for the Bills' D this year--can they improve the run D?   

As I mentioned in the thread, I think Jordan Phillips can be a big part of improving the run D as he provides a much bigger body next to Star.  Then there's Edmunds with a year of experience to help as well.  We'll find out early in the season as they will face some of the top RBs in the league in the first several weeks.

 

The pass D should be even better for the reasons you mention.  

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