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JESSEFEFFER

Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

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33 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

I take not stock in what he says.  Guy is trying to have it both ways.  He says Allen is not a qb and wont succeed then says if he succeeds it will be thanks to good coaching/situation.   WTF,?  I have no problem with someone saying Allen wont make it but dont then go out and try and play both sides of the fence. 

Agree entirely. 

 

As if every successful QB ever wasn’t the beneficiary of good coaching/situation?  

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11 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

 

Good. I like that there are guys like this saying Allen will never pan out. It will make it that much more satisfying when (and if) he does. 

 

And I expect that few of the analysts like Schatz will change their opinions. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Good point. Because Allen looked a helluva lot better than Elway did in his rookie year. And he didn’t line up under the guard once all season, either. 

 

Took Elway 10 years to hit that “magical” 60% threshold, too. 

 

Here's your logic:

Elway greatly improved during his career, so Allen will, too.

The very basics of analytics and common sense points out that that makes no sense.

For every Elway, there are 10 other QBs each season that begin their career poorly who don't get any better. What other than your beliefs tell you that Allen will follow a similar arc to Elway?

Edited by Kemp

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5 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Here's your logic:

Elway greatly improved during his career, so Allen will, too.

The very basics of analytics and common sense points out that that makes no sense.

For every Elway, there are 10 other QBs each season that begin their career poorly who don't get any better. What other than your beliefs tell you that Allen will follow a similar arc to Elway?

Work ethic

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2 hours ago, Capco said:

 

Peterman ahead of Anderson and Barkley?  Idk about that ranking...

 

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

1 hour ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Did you actually read my post or just see the elway. Compared to Peterman and Anderson, yes he looked like Elway out there. My god, way to troll and twist the words.

 

Allen compared to no one in the NFL was Elway. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. K said:

Good. I like that there are guys like this saying Allen will never pan out. It will make it that much more satisfying when (and if) he does. 

 

And I expect that few of the analysts like Schatz will change their opinions. 

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Work ethic

 

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

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31 minutes ago, Kemp said:

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

 

I haven't argued anything of the sort.  It was just the first thing that popped into my head after reading that list...

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Posted (edited)

We already know that Josh Allenh possessives all positive attributes to be a great NFL Quarterback. He played quite a bit in his first year. We witnessed it. Everyone has skeptics...dont be surprised if it continues through out his career.

Edited by Rocket94

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1 hour ago, Kemp said:

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

 

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

When you combine it with insane arm talent good things happen

 

you do remember that he comes with insane arm talent and athletism right?

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18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

When you combine it with insane arm talent good things happen

 

you do remember that he comes with insane arm talent and athletism right?

Do you think Tim Tebow or Colin Kaepernick are lacking in athleticism?


 

 

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Why does this matter? This guy has no significance

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

image.thumb.png.197c78b7a68ba6f27b1da34fff30ed7d.png

 

It’s not shocking that those rankings come from Football Outsiders  Depending on the metric you go by, you’ll find Allen ranked closer to Darnold and higher than Jackson and Rosen.

 

But even going by your logic, a “parody of an NFL QB” probably certainly be ranked lower than 30th.  In no way, would a “parody” be ranked higher than Lamar Jackson, who is “not a parody” right?

 

Also go read the article by Ryan Talbot.  He explains how you could see progress in Allen after coming back from the elbow injury.  Also, a “parody” probably doesn’t lead a team with bad talent around them to a 4-4 record. 

 

Again, not saying that Allen is a great QB yet....but yes he has performed better than the bleak outlook from old man Schatz

5 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

 

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

 

Because a second rate analytics site like Football Outsiders are right 100% of the time... don’t you know?

 

Something tells me @Kemp is a big fan of Mike Schopp 

Edited by BillyWhiteShows
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Posted (edited)

Anyone can write a sports article, the question is will the link still be open come December.

Image result for Error, link closed
 

..

 

 

Edited by HOUSE
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10 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

image.thumb.png.197c78b7a68ba6f27b1da34fff30ed7d.png

You’re showing the list of the website that Schatz is a part of. Wow, great evidence, and how the hell do believe Rosen was better than Allen. Worst stats, had 3 pick sixes and did nothing dynamic. At least Allen was doing something with his legs and passing other qbs haven’t done. 

7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

 

Allen compared to no one in the NFL was Elway. 

No, that’s what your saying I said compared to Peterman and Anderson at least he looked like he belong. Are talent level was horrific on all fronts. As a total package, Allen showed things that can make him a stud like Vick

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7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Analysts only change their opinions after the mathematical analysis confirms that they should. Whether you follow them in thought or not, you know that's what they do. If you disagree with an opinion of an analyst, you can be right, but you'll be wrong more often than right.

If the above wasn't true, every team wouldn't always be beefing up their analytics department. That's simply how player evaluation is done, now.

 

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

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19 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I'll take a shot.  We want to believe that Josh's improvement, the defenses' all around play and their 4 and 4 record at the close have the Bills starting the off season as a team in the middle third of the league.  He's saying that defensive performance is more random, Josh doesn't have it in him and they really entered the off season as bottom dwelling team.  Thus, all the offseason improvements, while he likes them, do not get them a shot into the upper third of the league.

Are you Aaron’s friend? That paragraph that Happy Quoted is indefensible. Aaron Shatz his pants on that one. 

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20 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

The thing is Schatz and other analytics guys don't have an opinion, just an interpretation of the data.  If the data changes, they change their assessment.  Conveniently  they are never wrong, and also never right.  Sure Allen's 'numbers' might not indicate he is primed for success.  But the context in which those numbers were produced needs to be considered.  If you believe, as the Bills leadership does, in the 'potential' of Allen and improve the context such as fewer dropped passes and less pressure from the defense then the data may reveal improvement.  Or it may not.  At this point I'm willing to trust the judgment of our GM and HC over some data gathers with a couple spreadsheets.      

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7 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

This is what you are using to argue Allen was a good passer last year?

 

Allen compared to no one in the NFL was Elway. 

No, that’s what your saying I said compared to Peterman and Anderson at least he looked like he belong. Are talent level was horrific on all fronts. As a total package, Allen showed things that can make him a stud like Vick 

37 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Good for Schatz if, should Allen's "analytics" improve, he changes his opinion. Not all commentators, even if they base their opinions on "objective standards," will.

 

And there is often room for different interpretations of statistics, or analyses that point in different directions, as anyone who follows such analysis knows. It's not as cut and dried as you characterize it. 

He said if Allen improved its cause of the talent we brought him to surround him with.  So not good on Schatz. 

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2 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

It’s not shocking that those rankings come from Football Outsiders  Depending on the metric you go by, you’ll find Allen ranked closer to Darnold and higher than Jackson and Rosen.

 

But even going by your logic, a “parody of an NFL QB” probably certainly be ranked lower than 30th.  In no way, would a “parody” be ranked higher than Lamar Jackson, who is “not a parody” right?

 

Also go read the article by Ryan Talbot.  He explains how you could see progress in Allen after coming back from the elbow injury.  Also, a “parody” probably doesn’t lead a team with bad talent around them to a 4-4 record. 

 

Again, not saying that Allen is a great QB yet....but yes he has performed better than the bleak outlook from old man Schatz

 

Because a second rate analytics site like Football Outsiders are right 100% of the time... don’t you know?

 

Something tells me @Kemp is a big fan of Mike Schopp 

 

Total schoop fanboy

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18 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

 

 

Quote

The one thing this board tends to agree on is that the Bills will never really be the team we want them to be without a very good QB at the helm, so there is enormous hope/pressure/concern regarding that state of affairs.

 

 

You could say that about any NFL team.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Here's your logic:

Elway greatly improved during his career, so Allen will, too.

The very basics of analytics and common sense points out that that makes no sense.

For every Elway, there are 10 other QBs each season that begin their career poorly who don't get any better. What other than your beliefs tell you that Allen will follow a similar arc to Elway?

My comment was more tongue in cheek than anything else. Lighten up. 

 

IMO, Allen showed enough glimpses to suggest he won’t be one of those 10 that doesn’t improve. Especially from a command of the game standpoint. It was obvious that the game was beginning to slow down for him a bit.

 

Not everything he did was a disaster. He made some plays and I choose to give him credit for that rather than act like he never did anything positive at all.

 

He’s got a ways to go, but I like where he is given his experience playing the position and the potential he has shown. 

 

 

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I liked what I saw from Allen last year.  He looked like he belonged out there.  He has to learn to read defenses better, to stay in the pocket more, get rid of the ball quicker and get better Comp %.  He will have a better OL this year, hopefully a better running game, and better receivers.  I like that he is willing to stand in there and take the long ball more than most other QBs in the league.  He may never be a highly accurate passer but I believe he will improve in that category.  I just don't think Allens unique skill level fits the analytical model of what a QB is supposed to be;  his ability to run and his cannon for an arm puts a lot of additional pressure on a defense which Dabol can use to help create mismatches that will help Allen succeed.  If Allen was an average running QB with an average arm the statistics would definitely be less favorable for Allen to succeed.  So I think Allen has a lot more upside than what analytics might imply.  He is an outlier that doesn't fit the mold of what analytics consider for success as an NFL QB.  Let's hope he continues to develop along those lines and still retain what makes him unique.

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I meant to add that Schatz and others of his ilk can only understand things from a statistical point of view. That is extremely limiting.

 

In short, they don’t understand there’s a HUGE difference between being a passer and being a quarterback. 

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15 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

He didn't accomplish anything.

 

They went 6-10 and their offense was bottom of the barrel.

 

Lead the team to a winning record and put up some quality numbers and people will respect him and the Bills... if that's what you care about.

 

Josh went 5-5 in the games he started and finished last year.  Putting the 6-10 record on his is disingenuous.

 

12 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

He was the 30th ranked QB in the NFL. Outperformed whose prognosis?

Mayfield, Darnold, and even Rosen were ranked higher.

This is who he outperformed:

image.thumb.png.197c78b7a68ba6f27b1da34fff30ed7d.png

 

How do Allen's 631 yards and 8 TD's rushing factor into that?  Or is it conveniently ignored?

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9 hours ago, Kemp said:

It is impossible for a QB to make it to the NFL without an outstanding work ethic.

 

You're kidding, right?

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