Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I get the acting thing for sure.  My daughter is a professional actor and singer and I hear that all the time, trust me.  In fact, she is waiting t hear from the Bills if she gets to sing the anthem this year.  The Bills put out a request for singers, and she just kills the anthem.  Keep your fingers crossed.

By "actor" I meant it in the most general sense, not the acting profession. But regardless, I hope she gets to sing the anthem!

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

It’s always been about winning, just as it is today. 

 

What I’d like to know, since 60% seems to be the magical demarcation between bust or success today is, what was the number when some great QBs were on their way to HOF careers without not only hitting 60% their first year, but didn’t even hit 50% as was the case with Elway, for example. 

 

There are a few other than Manning, even Brees who is the short-yardage king had up and down performances his first 3 years (some of that was injury-related, but Josh took a cheap-shot to his shoulder too).

 

I think it depends both on the type of QB (limited arm strength) and whether they played some spread offense in college and have a similar offense with good tools to operate within when they go pro.

 

Mahomes hit the ground running, but definitely is adept at taking the shorter throws and had a good supporting cast; whereas Josh has never done anything but sling the ball past the sticks since HS.

 

No guarantees, but it is waaay too early to close the book on what he can or cannot be taught to do in a professional offense with the right coaching.

 

Not a popular thing these days, but patience is not always the same as spinning your wheels going no where.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by WideNine

[PlayoffsPlease]

On 5/25/2019 at 12:30 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I wish someone asked Aaron if he sees Josh Rosen as an NFL starting QB.  As I recall, last year he was a big fan and one of the "Bills drafted wrong Josh" prognosticators.

Wanted the Dolphins to draft Josh Rosen.

 

Overall though, yes, you're right - Josh Allen is like a litmus test for "college analytics" vs "old-school scouting".

 

Do you spend much of your time seeking reading material in dog parks and commodes or ??

 

I mean, I get the point - it reads like "word vomit"  - I just found the analogy curious.  Outside of gastroenterology, who reads bowel movements for a living?

 

 

Quite a few of the Allen doubters are "old school guys" . Not sure why people think there is some consensus among non-analytics people. 

[LSHMEAB]

On 5/28/2019 at 2:30 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

He is unusual in so many ways. But I don't think Josh Allen resets the paradigm however things work out for him. Because there is so much about his scenario and style that is unique to him. 

That's the way I view it as well. A guy with THAT talent and THAT work ethic with these particular issues is a complete anomaly. He's not a "test case" per se because you're unlikely to find another one like him any time soon.

[SoTier]

13 hours ago, eball said:

 

And you're doing this at a time during which nearly everyone objectively believes the right FO is finally in place and doing the things necessary to build a consistent winner.

 

 

Obviously, it's not too early to fit Beane and McDermott for their gold HOF blazers.

 

[LSHMEAB]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Ok.  I give up.  Accuracy and precision are different things, acknowledged by those experienced and conversant in statistics, but you want to just ignore that because it either doesn't fit your narrative or makes you think about things more than you care to.   Your baseball thing?  Greg Mattox.  Great accuracy AND great precision - could paint the corners.  If he was just precise he might hit the same spot every time, but walk every guy because that spot was out of the strike zone.    Let me suggest you never make a bet throwing darts if this is your concept - you'd lose your shirt.

This argument just doesn't make sense. There's no way a pitcher would be hitting a specific spot out of the strike zone and there's no way a QB would be throwing a ball "precisely" off target every attempt. I understand the logic, but it's not really applicable to sports and specifically, Allen. He wasn't high and away or low and in with every pitch. He was too often just simply off target.

 

What JA needs to improve upon is placing the ball where the receiver can catch it and get some YAC. It's really that simple.

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

This argument just doesn't make sense. There's no way a pitcher would be hitting a specific spot out of the strike zone and there's no way a QB would be throwing a ball "precisely" off target every attempt. I understand the logic, but it's not really applicable to sports and specifically, Allen. He wasn't high and away or low and in with every pitch. He was too often just simply off target.

 

What JA needs to improve upon is placing the ball where the receiver can catch it and get some YAC. It's really that simple.

 

 

 

If someone has a mechanical issue, such as the ball coming out of his hand a bit early, they can be precise but not be as close to the target as they want I.e. Inaccurate.  Like a pitcher than keeps throwing high.  Puts it pretty much in the same spot but not in the strike zone.Or a QB that oversteps during his delivery.

 

When you say he has to put a ball in a precise spot where a WR can catch it and run, that is precision.  Great throwers are both accurate and precise.  

 

And if you look look at the work done by two guys on this board who looked at a multitude of throws Allen made and graded each ine you will see he was nowhere near as inaccurate as you want to think.

Edited May 30, 2019 by oldmanfan

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

If someone has a mechanical issue, such as the ball coming out of his hand a bit early, they can be precise but not be as close to the target as they want I.e. Inaccurate.  Like a pitcher than keeps throwing high.  Puts it pretty much in the same spot but not in the strike zone.Or a QB that oversteps during his delivery.

 

When you say he has to put a ball in a precise spot where a WR can catch it and run, that is precision.  Great throwers are both accurate and precise.  

 

And if you look look at the work done by two guys on this board who looked at a multitude of throws Allen made and graded each ine you will see he was nowhere near as inaccurate as you want to think.

Still don't like this argument, but one specific issue I noted that MAY fit your narrative was a propensity to throw low on the gimmies. That could theoretically be fixed by simply releasing the ball earlier in the delivery. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

I still doubt YOU Aaron Schatz!

 

 

(has anyone else come up with that one yet?)

 

?

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Still don't like this argument, but one specific issue I noted that MAY fit your narrative was a propensity to throw low on the gimmies. That could theoretically be fixed by simply releasing the ball earlier in the delivery. 

I mentioned this earlier but one of the confounders on this ball placement stuff is how much you put on the QB and how much you put on the receiver.  We've all seen times after an incompletion where the QB points at himself to say it was his fault, and vice versa with the receiver.  So, while I can't quantitate it, there are throws any QB makes where they put it right where they wanted but the receiver didn't get to the spot.

[Lurker]

On 5/25/2019 at 11:38 AM, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this,

 

Here you go:   https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/meet

 

"Aaron spent five years on the radio at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach...He has written for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. He lives in Natick, Massachusetts."

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

12 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Here you go:   https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/meet

 

"Aaron spent five years on the radio at WBRU Providence and WKRO Daytona Beach...He has written for a number of publications including The New Republic, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Slate, The American Prospect, and the Boston Phoenix. He lives in Natick, Massachusetts."

 

Not what I meant.  This opinion after year 1 seems unchanged from the predraft opinion .  Is it due numbers only?  Some particluar set?  Or did he actually "see" him play and attmept to put numbers into context?  Many people who viewed him as bust risk predraft, including posters here, have since modified that view.  Aaron Schatz appears to have an unchanged opinion and I would have been more inclined to ask him why.

[Lurker]

8 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Not what I meant.  This opinion after year 1 seems unchanged from the predraft opinion .  Is it due numbers only?  Some particluar set?  Or did he actually "see" him play and attmept to put numbers into context?  Many people who viewed him as bust risk predraft, including posters here, have since modified that view.  Aaron Schatz appears to have an unchanged opinion and I would have been more inclined to ask him why.

 

As there's a 99.99998% chance he's a Pats fan, I'd say anti-Bills bias.    Same as the 90%+ of TSW posters that can't praise Brady as it would be against their world view...

[K-9]

20 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Not what I meant.  This opinion after year 1 seems unchanged from the predraft opinion .  Is it due numbers only?  Some particluar set?  Or did he actually "see" him play and attmept to put numbers into context?  Many people who viewed him as bust risk predraft, including posters here, have since modified that view.  Aaron Schatz appears to have an unchanged opinion and I would have been more inclined to ask him why.

Those who’ve changed their view watched the games. 

 

Shatzhispants doesn’t bother to view games. He’s all about numbers, as if they tell the whole story when, in fact,  they don’t tell much at all.