Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Nothing is infallible in analytics, but analytics has proven to be better than spectator's evaluations. It's of great use in baseball and hockey to management. There's no reason it shouldn't be of worth in football. The beer swilling fan would probably place last in any group of stats or people.

 

Moneyball and The Undoing Project provide ample evidence of the worth of analytics in sports and in decision-making in general.

 

Hockey is where I have done the most reading about it. Hockey is all about how a player impacts team possession time and how he influences shots for his team and how well he suppresses shots by the other teams. The results of these analytics often clashes with what you think you are seeing and analytics has proven to be far more accurate as a predictor than what you think you are seeing.

Baseball and analytics stand alone as an instructive tool. Baseball, while a team game, is played by individuals facing other individuals. It's a series of one on one contests throughout the match. As such, it is far easier to use individual analytic data in a predictive capacity. From pitching and hitting, to fielding and throwing. Baseball provides a nice, tidy package for statisticians to ponder. 

 

Hockey is less so, but in terms of predictive puck possessing data, it's useful for 5x5 analysis. There is also some useful individual defensive data to be extrapolated. 

 

Football, by the very nature of the fact there are 10 other moving parts involved in assessing individual performance on a play by play basis, is a completely different animal. It's just far more difficult for analytics to pinpoint individual predictive performance data. 

[ColoradoBills]

On ‎5‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 12:22 PM, Nextmanup said:

 

Allen needs to make enormous strides this year and he has to be asked to things like actually try to read a defense, select the best throwing option, and then accurately deliver the ball to that receiver.  He wasn't asked to do that very often last year, if at all.  

 

It remains to be seen if Allen will be able to stay in the league for a lot longer as a starting QB.

 

 

It seems to me that if McDermott/Daboll were to think that they would be wrong and I don't expect that to happen.

Allen needs first to make incremental improvements to all parts of his game while not regressing in any.

He needs to focus on certain area(s) (deemed so by Daboll) and improve at a higher rate than the others areas.

 

He is young and still very raw and should not be expected to improve at a pace that is unreasonably accelerated.

 

One area I personally think he needs to show a large improvement quickly is his short passing game.

[Kemp]

17 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Are you disputing the state of his OL, WR's and the fact that he was a raw rookie who was thrust into the starting role?  To hear some talk, it's like he was a multi-year vet in a familiar offense and working with a great supporting cast.

 

 

You said that it was impossible to make it to the NFL without a great work ethic.  Not make it in the NFL.  There have been many QB's who made it to the NFL who didn't have a great work ethic, and they obviously failed.

 

His surroundings were bad, but I think you would agree that QB is far and away the single most important player on the field, so he is most responsible for how a team does.

I'm not disputing he was a rookie or that he might improve. I'm disputing that he was even serviceable as a passer last year.

Who are the QBs who made it to the NFL without a work ethic and how do you know any individual player's work ethic?

6 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

What odds are those? Serious question. What data can you provide that sheds any light at all on whether or not Allen will be successful?

 

The analytics of his stats in college and in the NFL.

 

Wasn't he the third best QB in a weak college conference?

[Kemp]

49 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Baseball and analytics stand alone as an instructive tool. Baseball, while a team game, is played by individuals facing other individuals. It's a series of one on one contests throughout the match. As such, it is far easier to use individual analytic data in a predictive capacity. From pitching and hitting, to fielding and throwing. Baseball provides a nice, tidy package for statisticians to ponder. 

 

Hockey is less so, but in terms of predictive puck possessing data, it's useful for 5x5 analysis. There is also some useful individual defensive data to be extrapolated. 

 

Football, by the very nature of the fact there are 10 other moving parts involved in assessing individual performance on a play by play basis, is a completely different animal. It's just far more difficult for analytics to pinpoint individual predictive performance data. 

 

To a degree, I agree, but management in the NFL definitely thinks analytics is very important. Maybe they will turn out to be wrong, but I would guess not.

Hockey has moving parts, too.

3 hours ago, WideNine said:

Imagine if life actually worked this way; What a dystopian world it would be. 

 

Instead of a young man or woman facing life embracing optimism and promise for their untapped future, or believing they could surpass their current limitations through practice, perseverance, and overcoming adversity, they were simply subjected to some kind of magic 8 ball where stats and analysis representing all your traits were tumbled about and reassembled via some kind of universal formula to accurately predict your future.

 

Why would anyone even try to improve?

 

 

 

 

I believe there are folks out there like Josh Allen that are DRIVEN to prove the doubters wrong. So let the haters hate. It will only light a fire under this kid who didn't let all those college rejection letters stop him either.

 

I even wish Peterman good luck (elsewhere) and have to give the guy props for continuing to pursue his dream.

 

 

 

 

 

Drive can elevate, but it can't turn a bad player into a good one, unless you believe the overwhelming amount of professional athletes are not driven, something I would think is absurd.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Kemp said:

 

To a degree, I agree, but management in the NFL definitely thinks analytics is very important. Maybe they will turn out to be wrong, but I would guess not.

Hockey has moving parts, too.

NFL management is most interested in the performance/exertion metrics of individual players vs. their individual statistics. 

 

Hockey has exactly half the moving parts and the applied analytics for hockey mostly concern puck possession metrics. Like baseball, it apples and oranges compared to football. 

 

What aspect of Allen’s performance to date suggests he will fail? Is it his completion percentage? His TD/INT ratio? What data set, exactly predicts his failure? 

[Kemp]

25 minutes ago, K-9 said:

NFL management is most interested in the performance/exertion metrics of individual players vs. their individual statistics. 

 

Hockey has exactly half the moving parts and the applied analytics for hockey mostly concern puck possession metrics. Like baseball, it apples and oranges compared to football. 

 

What aspect of Allen’s performance to date suggests he will fail? Is it his completion percentage? His TD/INT ratio? What data set, exactly predicts his failure? 

 

Nothing exactly predicts he will fail. Because you understand what analytics is, you know that. Analytics is about using the stats as a predictive tool.

Coming out of college, Mayfield was easily the best according to analytics. Allen was a very distant fourth. 

In my opinion, Mayfield was easily the best of the rookie QBs. He elevated his team. Now, many are predicting them to be in the playoffs in 2019.

Allen's passing stats were borderline terrible. The excuse given is that his team stunk, but Buffalo had one of the very best defenses in the NFL and won 6 games. That's not entirely Allen's fault, obviously, but did he make them even an average offense?

Everyone on this board thinks the offense is vastly improved, so I guess we'll find out what that translates into in 2019.

I hope Allen bucks the analytics, because otherwise this franchise is probably  doomed for a minimum of another 3 seasons. 

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Nothing exactly predicts he will fail. Because you understand what analytics is, you know that. Analytics is about using the stats as a predictive tool.

Coming out of college, Mayfield was easily the best according to analytics. Allen was a very distant fourth. 

In my opinion, Mayfield was easily the best of the rookie QBs. He elevated his team. Now, many are predicting them to be in the playoffs in 2019.

Allen's passing stats were borderline terrible. The excuse given is that his team stunk, but Buffalo had one of the very best defenses in the NFL and won 6 games. That's not entirely Allen's fault, obviously, but did he make them even an average offense?

Everyone on this board thinks the offense is vastly improved, so I guess we'll find out what that translates into in 2019.

I hope Allen bucks the analytics, because otherwise this franchise is probably  doomed for a minimum of another 3 seasons. 

A misplaced comma in my previous post altered my question. I meant to ask why you, exactly, predict Allen will fail. I assume the reason is contained in his stats? Which ones? 

 

Most of of us felt Mayfield or Darnold were the top QBs in the draft. But citing either of their performance does nothing to add to your argument about Allen.  They aren’t Allen and Allen isn’t them. It is irrelevant. 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Kemp said:

 

Nothing is infallible in analytics, but analytics has proven to be better than spectator's evaluations. It's of great use in baseball and hockey to management. There's no reason it shouldn't be of worth in football. The beer swilling fan would probably place last in any group of stats or people.

 

Moneyball and The Undoing Project provide ample evidence of the worth of analytics in sports and in decision-making in general.

 

Hockey is where I have done the most reading about it. Hockey is all about how a player impacts team possession time and how he influences shots for his team and how well he suppresses shots by the other teams. The results of these analytics often clashes with what you think you are seeing and analytics has proven to be far more accurate as a predictor than what you think you are seeing.

 

As K9 points out Football has to many moving parts (variables) to lend itself to effective analytics use.  Among team sports baseball is much more suitable.  Not only is it made up of very well defined individual actions the sheer number of games played within one season allow a statistically meaningful collection of observations to be made. To match a single baseball season an NFL player would have to complete for 10 seasons.  By that time player aging will have introduced a powerful and uncontrollable variable to deal with. 

 

I don't know enough about hockey to comment intelligently on whether analytics has been a useful tool there. 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

The analytics of his stats in college and in the NFL.

Wasn't he the third best QB in a weak college conference?

The analytics of his stats in college and his first year in the NFL are just that: statistics relevant to what he did in those circumstances. It has absolutely no predictive value in regard to how he will be this year or beyond. 

[RaoulDuke79]

Well if Aaron Schatz says it, you can take it to the bank.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Football, by the very nature of the fact there are 10 other moving parts involved in assessing individual performance on a play by play basis, is a completely different animal. It's just far more difficult for analytics to pinpoint individual predictive performance data. 

 

Football is even more complicated then this!  Not only does it have the interaction of the 10 other players but you have to add in the following for EACH play:

 

*  The impact of the coaches that are on both the sideline & up in the box.  This ranges from the play call that is sent in to the signals being sent to other players on the field (O-line & WR's for example) from the sideline.  All this occurs in the 20 seconds or so before EACH play. 

 

*  The impact of the refs.  Football is probably the most overly officious team sport.  Each official on EVERY play can impact a QB's final stats.   Does a holding call cancel out a TD throw?  Does an interference call cancel out an INT?  Does a rinky dinky illegal content call on one side of the field cancel out a pick six on the other side? 

 

*  The opposition defensive players & coaches.  Their reactions to every offensive snap have a lot to do with a QB's final stats.

 

*  The weather.  Hockey is played indoors and baseball isn't played in the rain or snow.  But football is played in almost every type of weather.  And which part of an offense is impacted by the weather the most?  The passing game.  

[K-9]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Football is even more complicated then this!  Not only does it have the interaction of the 10 other players but you have to add in the following for EACH play:

 

*  The impact of the coaches that are on both the sideline & up in the box.  This ranges from the play call that is sent in to the signals being sent to other players on the field (O-line & WR's for example) from the sideline.  All this occurs in the 20 seconds or so before EACH play. 

 

*  The impact of the refs.  Football is probably the most overly officious team sport.  Each official on EVERY play can impact a QB's final stats.   Does a holding call cancel out a TD throw?  Does an interference call cancel out an INT?  Does a rinky dinky illegal content call on one side of the field cancel out a pick six on the other side? 

 

*  The opposition defensive players & coaches.  Their reactions to every offensive snap have a lot to do with a QB's final stats.

 

*  The weather.  Hockey is played indoors and baseball isn't played in the rain or snow.  But football is played in almost every type of weather.  And which part of an offense is impacted by the weather the most?  The passing game.  

While I appreciate the further analysis and agree entirely that each item mentioned lends itself to the outcomes of games, most of these points apply to the other sports as well to varying degrees.

[eball]

48 minutes ago, Kemp said:

 

Nothing exactly predicts he will fail. Because you understand what analytics is, you know that. Analytics is about using the stats as a predictive tool.

Coming out of college, Mayfield was easily the best according to analytics. Allen was a very distant fourth. 

In my opinion, Mayfield was easily the best of the rookie QBs. He elevated his team. Now, many are predicting them to be in the playoffs in 2019.

Allen's passing stats were borderline terrible. The excuse given is that his team stunk, but Buffalo had one of the very best defenses in the NFL and won 6 games. That's not entirely Allen's fault, obviously, but did he make them even an average offense?

Everyone on this board thinks the offense is vastly improved, so I guess we'll find out what that translates into in 2019.

I hope Allen bucks the analytics, because otherwise this franchise is probably  doomed for a minimum of another 3 seasons. 

 

I maintain that Allen is an analytical unicorn. The stats used to measure him in college do not take into effect factors like what sort of coaching he received, the skill of his teammates, and his experience playing the position. If you want to respond that “all D-1 QBs are measured the same way” that’s fine, but I’ll assert that statistics used in that way are flawed.

 

I think nearly everyone who questions Allen as a “valid” NFL starter has solely relied upon those flawed college statistics. Allen’s low completion percentage during his first season in Buffalo appears to them to be proof of his expected failure.  They are making the same mistake. 

 

Give me one good reason why a player possessing Allen’s physical and mental characteristics couldn’t get a sniff from any decent D-1 program? That, by itself, is evidence of a flawed system. You’re really telling me the top college programs wouldn’t want a talent like Allen in their system? They just “missed” on him because he didn’t have the right pedigree, so he went to a crappy Wyoming program where he still elevated those around him. 

 

This kid may be the most unintentional victim of “analytics” in sports history. It’s going to be a joy watching him shut all of the doubters’ mouths. 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Kemp said:

 

To a degree, I agree, but management in the NFL definitely thinks analytics is very important. Maybe they will turn out to be wrong, but I would guess not.

Hockey has moving parts, too.

 

Drive can elevate, but it can't turn a bad player into a good one, unless you believe the overwhelming amount of professional athletes are not driven, something I would think is absurd.

 

An oversimplification.

 

"Turn a "bad" player into a good one".

 

How is bad determined? One partial year of NFL experience and stats. So his ceiling has been set.

 

Might as well give up on most of our rookies if they are not good-to-great right out of the gate, why even bother with developing them?

 

Bruce Arians when covering one of our games from the booth last year was clearly enamoured with the skills Josh put on display.

 

He saw so many good things you can't teach and the problems he did see he felt could be easily corrected...mainly just taking the easier throws when given them and not trying to do too much on each play.

 

He sounded like a coach stuck in a booth that wanted to run down to the field and work with Allen during half time.

 

His biggest fear for Allen was that he would not be given the time and patience needed from the Bills organization or fans to develop his game.

 

Hearing those comments from an established QB coach who has developed good QBs meant more to me than those who can't see beyond 1st year stats.

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

29 minutes ago, K-9 said:

While I appreciate the further analysis and agree entirely that each item mentioned lends itself to the outcomes of games, most of these points apply to the other sports as well to varying degrees.

Agreed but they're impact is more pronounced and variable in football. 

 

Take officiating for example, while umpires have a big impact on each baseball "play" the number of moving pieces from the pitch to the end of the play that umps impact is less then what an NFL referee crew impacts on each NFL play.  Or take weather, sure a strong wind can effect a baseball game but such an effect pales in comparison to how rain or snow impact every part of a football game.  Even worse, over the course of the LONG baseball season variables like weather can be expected to largely even out.  But the limited number of football games offers no such assurances. 

 

I suspect that if you add it all up the total movable pieces for each NFL play they are an order of magnitude greater then what happens on each pitch in baseball.  Making matters worse, is the fact that the relatively few games played in a football season often don't enable events to even out.  

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, WideNine said:

Imagine if life actually worked this way; What a dystopian world it would be. 

 

Instead of a young man or woman facing life embracing optimism and promise for their untapped future, or believing they could surpass their current limitations through practice, perseverance, and overcoming adversity, they were simply subjected to some kind of magic 8 ball where stats and analysis representing all your traits were tumbled about and reassembled via some kind of universal formula to accurately predict your future.

 

Why would anyone even try to improve?

 

 

I believe there are folks out there like Josh Allen that are DRIVEN to prove the doubters wrong. So let the haters hate. It will only light a fire under this kid who didn't let all those college rejection letters stop him either.

 

I even wish Peterman good luck (elsewhere) and have to give the guy props for continuing to pursue his dream.

 

 

You are missing that analytics is a very useful tool for players trying to improve.  It can help by not only showing them the areas where they are strong or weak, but also point them toward working on the facets of their games that would be the most advantageous.

 

I always think that at this stage the “driven by naysayers” angle is way, way, way overblown - especially for QBs.  These guys are looking at a situation where tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars is on the line.  Plus then there's the fame, including adoration from truly top shelf women (or whomever they’re interested in) and general fan worship galore.  Not to mention the internal drive most of the players have.  Proving wrong a few idiots who say they’ll fail can’t even register for most of these guys.  Seriously, if succeeding as an NFL QB means that I’m at the top of my profession and that I’m looking at a 5 year $150M contract and Scarlett Johansson as my squeeze, then you can believe me when I say that anything Colin Cowherd has to say about me wouldn’t mean a damn thing. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

You are missing that analytics is a very useful tool for players trying to improve.  It can help by not only showing them the areas where they are strong or weak, but also point them toward working on the facets of their games that would be the most advantageous.

 

I always think that at this stage the “driven by naysayers” angle is way, way, way overblown - especially for QBs.  These guys are looking at a situation where tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars is on the line.  Plus then there's the fame, including adoration from truly top shelf women (or whomever they’re interested in) and general fan worship galore.  Not to mention the internal drive most of the players have.  Proving wrong a few idiots who say they’ll fail can’t even register for most of these guys.  Seriously, if succeeding as an NFL QB means that I’m at the top of my profession and that I’m looking at a 5 year $150M contract and Scarlett Johansson as my squeeze, then you can believe me when I say that anything Colin Cowherd has to say about me wouldn’t mean a damn thing. 

Agreed. Allen probably spent about 10 seconds enjoying his "you like that" moment against Jalen Ramsey while fans spent about two weeks soaking it in. Just the nature of the beast.

 

I've long believed fans are more disappointed in any given result than the players themselves. That's why I do my best not to take it personally. 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[JESSEFEFFER]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

You are missing that analytics is a very useful tool for players trying to improve.  It can help by not only showing them the areas where they are strong or weak, but also point them toward working on the facets of their games that would be the most advantageous.

 

I always think that at this stage the “driven by naysayers” angle is way, way, way overblown - especially for QBs.  These guys are looking at a situation where tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars is on the line.  Plus then there's the fame, including adoration from truly top shelf women (or whomever they’re interested in) and general fan worship galore.  Not to mention the internal drive most of the players have.  Proving wrong a few idiots who say they’ll fail can’t even register for most of these guys.  Seriously, if succeeding as an NFL QB means that I’m at the top of my profession and that I’m looking at a 5 year $150M contract and Scarlett Johansson as my squeeze, then you can believe me when I say that anything Colin Cowherd has to say about me wouldn’t mean a damn thing. 

 

You can say this and it may be somewhat true of the talking heads in media land.  But, there are stories of great players like Thurman and Aaron Rodgers having long held grudges regarding their draft experience, for instance.  Apparently, they can hang on some perceived disrespect for a long, long time.  Josh's story is full of doubters at every turn, right up until the draft and it still continues.  Being labeled a "parody of an NFL QB prospect" is about as harsh as could be.  I'd bet he's heard that and all the rest of the chatter.  The guy that wrote letters to every FBS school there is asking them to review his JUCO video and for a scholarship, but only got 2 offers sounds motivated by more than just a big payday.

 

 

[SoTier]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

You sound pretty opinionated about him to me.

 

I don't have a clue if Allen will succeed or fail, so I don't have an opinion on that.  He did not have a good rookie season.  That's not an opinion, it's a fact.  How he did as a rookie, however, is largely irrelevant in determining whether he becomes successful or not.  How much he improves as a second year starter will be far more predictive.  Virtually all the good/great QBs over the last twenty years improved significantly in their second season over how they did in their first.  That doesn't mean that he has to become a Pro Bowler as a sophomore but rather that he has to show improvement in the skills that good/great QBs possess.

 

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

For the record....I dont like the hurdling of the LB either....it shows that he is a gamer and I am sure ppl love the highlight......but you better believe he had at least 5 guys tell him coming off the field "dont do that again"

 

I think his running was a mixture of trying to make a play when nothing was there/Not relying on the OL to keep him clean....but I ALSO saw Josh stand tall and nail some big play throws and take a hit....you gotta understand that this was a 1st year rookie QB that EVERYONE knew was going to take some time....the fact that he shows AS MUCH as he did is very encouraging.

 

I was surprised and encouraged by how Allen played in 2018 but how he plays this coming season will be much more predictive.   He needs to improve significantly from where he finished 2018 even if that improvement isn't reflected in gaudy statistics for any number of reasons, including coaching, tream offensive philosophy, offensive talent, etc.

 

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

It seems to me that if McDermott/Daboll were to think that they would be wrong and I don't expect that to happen.

Allen needs first to make incremental improvements to all parts of his game while not regressing in any.

He needs to focus on certain area(s) (deemed so by Daboll) and improve at a higher rate than the others areas.

 

He is young and still very raw and should not be expected to improve at a pace that is unreasonably accelerated.

 

One area I personally think he needs to show a large improvement quickly is his short passing game.

 

I think that he needs to make continual improvement over the course of the year so that he's not only better in 2019 than he was in 2018 but that he's a better QB in December than in September or October.  That would indicate that he's still not reached his ceiling and can improve more in the future.

[Kemp]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

The analytics of his stats in college and his first year in the NFL are just that: statistics relevant to what he did in those circumstances. It has absolutely no predictive value in regard to how he will be this year or beyond. 

 

All analytics is, is interpreting stats. Your saying they are irrelevant going forward are based on what?