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Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh


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Why isn't Schatz in NFL management? Clearly if he knows more than the NFL GMs someone would have offered him a job by now. I doubt he's making anything close to the $1 million to $3 million going rate a GM in the NFL makes. Either he hates money, likes spending all day on the computer in his mother's basement or he just isn't good enough to have a team trust his judgement.

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On 5/25/2019 at 1:00 PM, HOUSE said:

Aqaron Schatz was a sports writer for WBRU in Providence RI and worked for The Boston Globe

Broadcast area‎: ‎Southern New England . I could have guessed that one..

 

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/aaron-schatz/

 

Image result for sanford and son gif

 

IOW, Schatz has much more experience watching Brady rather than Losman, Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Manuel, Orton, Taylor, Peterman, and Allen.  How, exactly, does that disqualify him from stating his opinion on a Bills QB?  

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20 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Work ethic alone wont get you there but he has a ton of other intangibles that I believe also support it including great measurables. 

 

What "ton of other intangilbes" has Allen demonstrated in his 11 NFL starts?  "Intangibles" are traits that enable QBs to be successful that aren't statistically measurable and sometimes aren't even definable but which are keys to separating average NFL QBs from great ones.  Work ethic and leadership are two intangibles that Allen has demonstrated that he has.  He has not yet demonstrated that he can read defenses quickly and correctly, that he can make good decisions, that he can play "clutch" like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc.  That may be simply that he was only a rookie ... but maybe that means that he doesn't have any or some of these.  At this point, nobody really knows.

 

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, SoTier said:

IOW, Schatz has much more experience watching Brady rather than Losman, Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Manuel, Orton, Taylor, Peterman, and Allen.  How, exactly, does that disqualify him from stating his opinion on a Bills QB?  

 

How does it qualify him?  I've watched a lot of QB's over the years.  Doesn't make me an expert on them and I freely admit it.

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

 

What "ton of other intangilbes" has Allen demonstrated in his 11 NFL starts?  "Intangibles" are traits that enable QBs to be successful that aren't statistically measurable and sometimes aren't even definable but which are keys to separating average NFL QBs from great ones.  Work ethic and leadership are two intangibles that Allen has demonstrated that he has.  He has not yet demonstrated that he can read defenses quickly and correctly, that he can make good decisions, that he can play "clutch" like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc.  That may be simply that he was only a rookie ... but maybe that means that he doesn't have any or some of these.  At this point, nobody really knows.

 

 

 

 

Self confidence, responsability, as far as reading the defenses, he always seemed to pick the correct time to run didnt he.

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56 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

How does it qualify him?  I've watched a lot of QB's over the years.  Doesn't make me an expert on them and I freely admit it.

 

I didn't say it did.  I said it didn't disqualify him which the poster implied it did simply because he covered sports in southern New England (Mass/Conn/RI).  

 

This has nothing to do with Josh Allen and his chances of being a successful NFL QB.   I have no opinion on that because I don't have any idea how he'll turn out -- and nobody else has, either.  We all have opinions, and right now, the positive opinions of Allen's prospects are based on hope not fact because he didn't play all that well as a rookie. 

 

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7 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Self confidence, responsability, as far as reading the defenses, he always seemed to pick the correct time to run didnt he.

 

Did he really "always seemed to pick the correct time to run" or did he simply run because, like many rookie QBs, he didn't know what else to do with defenders coming after him?   Moreover, while hurdling LBs makes for spectacular highlights, it's almost a guarantee that a QB is not long for the NFL if he makes it a habit.  

 

If you want to watch a QB who "knows the correct time to run" -- and how to do it -- watch Russell Wilson extend Seahag drives with regularity -- and usually without taking a hit, too.

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Just now, SoTier said:

 

Did he really "always seemed to pick the correct time to run" or did he simply run because, like many rookie QBs, he didn't know what else to do with defenders coming after him?   Moreover, while hurdling LBs makes for spectacular highlights, it's almost a guarantee that a QB is not long for the NFL if he makes it a habit.  

 

If you want to watch a QB who "knows the correct time to run" -- and how to do it -- watch Russell Wilson extend Seahag drives with regularity -- and usually without taking a hit, too.

Have you ever actually listened to him talk.  His football intelligence is off the charts.  He was the #1 QB on several boards that I'm aware of for a reason.

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16 hours ago, Kemp said:

I am not disputing that you may turn out to be right about his future, but the odds are against you.

What odds are those? Serious question. What data can you provide that sheds any light at all on whether or not Allen will be successful?

Edited by billsfan1959
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20 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Honest question. Do you think you'd still have the same optimism if the season ended at NE? As much as I've altered my stance and become open to the possibility that Allen can be the guy, I still find myself asking that question.

The Jacksonville Jaguars came into Rich Stadium and knocked the reigning AFC Champion and their dynasty out of the park, including being the last game for the legendary QB...So it can happen !!!

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11 minutes ago, ganesh said:

The Jacksonville Jaguars came into Rich Stadium and knocked the reigning AFC Champion and their dynasty out of the park, including being the last game for the legendary QB...So it can happen !!!

 

Thanks to the refs incorrectly ruling that Kelly fumbled.  

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

I have no opinion on that

 

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

the positive opinions of Allen's prospects are based on hope not fact because he didn't play all that well as a rookie. 

 

You sound pretty opinionated about him to me.

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Imagine if life actually worked this way; What a dystopian world it would be. 

 

Instead of a young man or woman facing life embracing optimism and promise for their untapped future, or believing they could surpass their current limitations through practice, perseverance, and overcoming adversity, they were simply subjected to some kind of magic 8 ball where stats and analysis representing all your traits were tumbled about and reassembled via some kind of universal formula to accurately predict your future.

 

Why would anyone even try to improve?

 

 

 

 

I believe there are folks out there like Josh Allen that are DRIVEN to prove the doubters wrong. So let the haters hate. It will only light a fire under this kid who didn't let all those college rejection letters stop him either.

 

I even wish Peterman good luck (elsewhere) and have to give the guy props for continuing to pursue his dream.

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

 

What "ton of other intangilbes" has Allen demonstrated in his 11 NFL starts?  "Intangibles" are traits that enable QBs to be successful that aren't statistically measurable and sometimes aren't even definable but which are keys to separating average NFL QBs from great ones.  Work ethic and leadership are two intangibles that Allen has demonstrated that he has.  He has not yet demonstrated that he can read defenses quickly and correctly, that he can make good decisions, that he can play "clutch" like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc.  That may be simply that he was only a rookie ... but maybe that means that he doesn't have any or some of these.  At this point, nobody really knows. 

 

 

 

 

You saw glimpses of it last season....you just didnt see it consistantly.

 

Which is fine......the kid is raw as hell

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3 hours ago, ganesh said:

The Jacksonville Jaguars came into Rich Stadium and knocked the reigning AFC Champion and their dynasty out of the park, including being the last game for the legendary QB...So it can happen !!!

Yeah. I was there listening to fans call for the next legendary Bills QB to take the reigns from Kelly. Todd something or other. Not a good day.

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4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Did he really "always seemed to pick the correct time to run" or did he simply run because, like many rookie QBs, he didn't know what else to do with defenders coming after him?   Moreover, while hurdling LBs makes for spectacular highlights, it's almost a guarantee that a QB is not long for the NFL if he makes it a habit.  

 

If you want to watch a QB who "knows the correct time to run" -- and how to do it -- watch Russell Wilson extend Seahag drives with regularity -- and usually without taking a hit, too.

For the record....I dont like the hurdling of the LB either....it shows that he is a gamer and I am sure ppl love the highlight......but you better believe he had at least 5 guys tell him coming off the field "dont do that again"

 

I think his running was a mixture of trying to make a play when nothing was there/Not relying on the OL to keep him clean....but I ALSO saw Josh stand tall and nail some big play throws and take a hit....you gotta understand that this was a 1st year rookie QB that EVERYONE knew was going to take some time....the fact that he shows AS MUCH as he did is very encouraging.

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20 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Why would folks waste their time?  Analytics can not proactively predict a young QB's future prospects any better then a beer swilling fan gobbling down chicken wings at the local bar & grill.

 

 

 

Nothing is infallible in analytics, but analytics has proven to be better than spectator's evaluations. It's of great use in baseball and hockey to management. There's no reason it shouldn't be of worth in football. The beer swilling fan would probably place last in any group of stats or people.

 

Moneyball and The Undoing Project provide ample evidence of the worth of analytics in sports and in decision-making in general.

 

Hockey is where I have done the most reading about it. Hockey is all about how a player impacts team possession time and how he influences shots for his team and how well he suppresses shots by the other teams. The results of these analytics often clashes with what you think you are seeing and analytics has proven to be far more accurate as a predictor than what you think you are seeing.

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