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Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh


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13 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Allen got drafted as much for his aptitude for the game and other intangible as he did his physical tools. 

 

Per the bold text, I have no idea who you’re addressing or what you mean by the comment. 

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1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Allen got drafted as much for his aptitude for the game and other intangible as he did his physical tools. 

 

Per the bold text, I have no idea who you’re addressing or what you mean by the comment. 

You’re acting like he didn’t have a college coach with a recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb. 

3 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

And hopefully Josh doesnt cry and throw a tantrum if he ever loses a SB?

I would be fine with Allen doing this after his MVP season. 

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18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg. 

 

He got drafted for his physical tools and because of how he played in the Senior Bowl.

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5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re acting like he didn’t have a college coach with a recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb. 

I would be fine with Allen doing this after his MVP season. 

And then proceed to be very average the rest of his career

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23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Are you thinking that others dont have high expectations of Josh Allen?

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He got drafted for his physical tools and because of how he played in the Senior Bowl.

I might add that his play in the year he had prior to his senior year (the year where he actually had a little bit of talent at Wyoming)

 

Ppl tend to overlook that

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1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re acting like he didn’t have a college coach with a recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb. 

I would be fine with Allen doing this after his MVP season. 

WTF!  Where the flying F do you get this crap? 

 

I’m acting like someone who knows the difference between a scrawny, undeveloped QB entering college and Cam Newton. Period. Nothing more. So I’d appreciate it if you don’t involve me in some bull crap narrative you have with other posters. 

 

Regarding Wentz, he was also light years ahead if Allen as a prospect entering college, too. And that is rally saying something considering Wentz wasn’t lighting up the recruitment boards, either. 

 

It’s interesting that the same college coach with the “recent history of developing a top 5 nfl qb” saw enough in Allen to make him his QB and develop him enough to make him a top 7 pick in the draft as well. 

 

 

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Did Allen really do anything to alleviate the questions scouts and pundits had about his ability last season? 

 

I think Allen showed more athleticism and leadership than I expected but I doubt those register with the scouts who doubt his throwing accuracy and ability to make reads.

 

Despite a lot of fans claiming we got our guy, the jury is still out. We should all have a much better idea after this season. Here’s to hoping.

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22 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If Allen turns out better than a heisman trophy and national champ; rookie passing record having; MVP, and SB runner up , he will be a borderline HOFer.  No pressure Josh!

 

cam newton average at best says Billybob ?

I honestly would take Cam Newton level type QB....I think Cam gets a bad wrap...he has accomplished things we would love to have a a bill QB and it feels like he does it with VERY little help.

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

His basis for his opinion is his website's algorithm called QBASE:

 

https://www.footballo:utsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

 

According to that metric, Josh Allen has a 37.3% chance of becoming an adequate starter or better. Which is why I don't understand his relentless pessimism of Allen's chances. A better than 1 in 3 chance of becoming at least an adequate starter is really not all that unlikely. So even by the numbers his own website uses, Schatz's opinion doesn't make sense. Does he trust his own numbers or not? Imagine rolling a die and ridiculing the idea that a 1 or a 2 could be rolled. That is essentially what he is doing. Unless he doesn't trust his own algorithm which would be weird.

Thanks.   I had forgotten about QBASE.  I never liked QBASE.

 

Outsiders is good at what it set out to do: crunch the available raw data and film evaluations of whether any particular player did what he was supposed to do on any particular down and distance and come up with a ranking of how effective the player is in comparison to other players at the same position.   They also do it for teams, offenses, defenses.   In my opinion, it works.   But it always was intended to be backward looking, not forward looking.  They don't have any tools that have been demonstrated to project future performance, and that's what QBASE does.  

 

Schatz isn't a football guy; he succeeded by being a number cruncher.  He's entitled to his opinion, but it's only an opinion, like everyone else's opinion.    I suspect much of his opinion is driven by Allen's DYAR; if so, I think he's letting past performance become his determinant of potential, and that doesn't make sense for a rookie qb.  

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7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I honestly would take Cam Newton level type QB....I think Cam gets a bad wrap...he has accomplished things we would love to have a a bill QB and it feels like he does it with VERY little help.

Oh boy please don't subject us to 8 years of overrated and average qb play

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2 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Did Allen really do anything to alleviate the questions scouts and pundits had about his ability last season? 

 

I think Allen showed more athleticism and leadership than I expected but I doubt those register with the scouts who doubt his throwing accuracy and ability to make reads.

 

Despite a lot of fans claiming we got our guy, the jury is still out. We should all have a much better idea after this season. Here’s to hoping.

Of course the jury is still out. I personally don’t know anyone who doesn’t think that. By the same token, it’s wrong to proclaim he’s going to be a bust, too. 

 

While his accuracy is and has been a fair point of criticism, his ability to make reads has never been an issue. He blew people away with his acumen during the scouting process leading up to the draft. Of course, doing that in an off field setting vs. live action with big dudes trying to kill you within seconds of the snap is an entirely different animal. But I’ve never met a rookie QB that didn’t have that question applied to him. 

 

Finally, and this isn’t directed at you, but there is a good reason to be excited about his prospects. And while there may be equal concern about his potential downside, it gets pretty tiresome having it thrown in your face ever time somebody has something positive to say about Allen as a developing prospect. 

 

 

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Objective analytics types see a guy who struggled with completion percentage in college and struggled (mightily) with completion percentage in the NFL. There is no way for a QB to succeed without getting near 60%. You're leaving far too many yards on the field as an offense when that's the case.

 

I'm fairly confident I watched as much, if not more, NFL tape than Schatz unless he happened to watch every snap including the last 10 minutes of the Packers game. I see a guy who's strengths just MIGHT be enough to make up for the accuracy/precision/whatever issues. If he's able to become "competent" in the short game; able to recognize where to go and when and improve ball placement, he can absolutely be a franchise QB. I'm not personally convinced he can, but that is the question. We know he can fling it. We know he can run.

 

I will say that these guys don't have some deep seething hate for Josh Allen, the man, as some seem to believe. They are basing their opinion on raw analytical data and projecting how that compares to the successful NFL QB's. Josh Allen IS one of those test studies in eyes/ears vs analytics. I had zero confidence going into his rookie year. At this point, I'm far more optimistic. Not convinced, but willing to hope.

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56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.  I think the people who don’t like the Allen pick are the people who go with what history tells us.  Allen got drafted because of physical tools rather than what he actually did.  Those guys terrify me. Back to guys like Hackenburg.  

 

And can we stop acting like his college coach wasn’t Carson Wentz’?  Sorry, I’m going to have high expectations for the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  

Yup.  A lot of people on this board were thinking Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield in that order praying we don't pick Allen.  At least I was.  I'm more cautiously optomistic about him now but far from convinced.

41 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Allen got drafted as much for his aptitude for the game and other intangible as he did his physical tools. 

 

Per the bold text, I have no idea who you’re addressing or what you mean by the comment. 

Craig Bohl I believe.

Edited by Doc Brown
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6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Yup.  A lot of people on this board were thinking Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield in that order praying we don't pick Allen.  At least I was.  I'm more cautiously optomistic about him now but far from convinced.

Craig Bohl I believe.

Yeah, I kind of figured that out afterwards. Suggesting Carson Wentz was his college coach threw me a bit. After I got done laughing, it became clear.

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Just now, K-9 said:

Yeah, I kind of figured that out afterwards. Suggesting Carson Wentz was his college coach threw me a bit. After I got done laughing, it became clear.

The difference between Wentz' and Wentz's is does lead to confusion.

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4 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to why it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

 

i apologize for not going through all the pages yet but, i think i heard this today on wgr....or maybe it was a similar take from a booker...but.....

 

i have been wrong before. i liked rob johnson....i liked jp losman...i liked trent, but all went wrong. i have always attributed it to the billsy way of ruining young qbs.....and i think that theory has merit. when ej came in and was forced to start, this may just be another example of this, but i just didn't think the kid had it between the ears.

 

now here i am again being hopeful that josh will be our next franchise qb...a cross between elway and kelly. i am going to hang onto those hopes because for the 1st time in decades, i feel we have the gm and coaching staff that will make him that. i pray that i'm right. i just think about the last 4 yrs. with whaley/brandon/marrone and rex.

 

we're not going back there. i believe in this staff and josh allen. 10-6 at least. my biggest and really only fear this year is facing greggo week one on the road. our oline has got to get the nasty working day one.

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I have my doubts about Allen too.  He did some good and some bad last year.  You know, like a rookie.

 

some guys start great and fizzle like RG3. Others suck as rookies only to turn out HOF like Peyton.

 

I'll know he's good and can lead a team to the top 1/3rd of the league when he does. Until then TBD.

 

and whatever these yahoos say to get clicks means NOTHING until he proves it on the field which as of yet he has not.

 

The team WAS top 1/3rd the year before he arrived ...

Edited by reddogblitz
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