Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh

[Jpsredemption]

He’s probably higher on Lamar Jackson because you are not allowed to criticize Lamar Jackson. 

[HappyDays]

48 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I am quite sure he has some basis for his opinion. That is his job, opnions based on numerical analysis. 

 

His basis for his opinion is his website's algorithm called QBASE:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

 

According to that metric, Josh Allen has a 37.3% chance of becoming an adequate starter or better. Which is why I don't understand his relentless pessimism of Allen's chances. A better than 1 in 3 chance of becoming at least an adequate starter is really not all that unlikely. So even by the numbers his own website uses, Schatz's opinion doesn't make sense. Does he trust his own numbers or not? Imagine rolling a die and ridiculing the idea that a 1 or a 2 could be rolled. That is essentially what he is doing. Unless he doesn't trust his own algorithm which would be weird.

[C.Biscuit97]

7 minutes ago, Jpsredemption said:

He’s probably higher on Lamar Jackson because you are not allowed to criticize Lamar Jackson. 

? 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

The only thing that makes me critically is his take about Allen being good. States that if he’s good it’s because the Bills gave him help and if he fails he’s right. Totally dismissed himself and shows no accountability. 

[plenzmd1]

32 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Hes just jealous of Joshs big hands. 

I am lounging in a furniture while wife shops. And at the exact same time I read this, I hear one woman say to the other... what do you need Kat, 8 inches? 

 

Timing was freaking Perfect. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Aaron was on WGR yesterday with an interesting position on Josh.  He still does not "see" him as an NFL starting QB.  Says he would like to see Bills fans rewarded but does not see Josh as likely to produce it.  If I were doing the interview I'd have asked him about the basis for this, is it the numbers or some actual film review?  IIRC, this was his predraft assessment based on his Wyoming stats and their  correlation to historical projection and he's not bending it based on year 1 in the NFL. 

 

Assuming he is still focused on the numbers, I would have asked him what effect that the following would have on his numbers:

 

1) being the leader in depth to target

2) being amongst the top in dropped passes and throwaways/spikes

3) being near the top in throws under pressure

 

I saw some Twitter chatter started by Bills reporters Sal Capaccio and Ryan Talbot.  Here's the link to the latters' story:

 

newyorkupstate " I-do-not-see-a-nfl-starting-qb-in-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-says-espns-aaron-schatz"

 

I appreciate facts in any discussion and numbers are facts.  But discussions need facts connected to meaning and context.  It looks like if the Bills have a decent season, he already has an alternate explanation as to whay it happened.

 

I think Josh will be one of the alltime "scouts eyes and ears" vs. "raw analytics" cases in the NFL.  Someone gets to tell the other side "I told you so."

 

 

 

 

“I am not a Josh Allen believer. I just think the accuracy is not there. One thing we did see is scrambling. It’s a bonus absolutely, but sometimes you have to stand in the pocket. And he’s just not accurate.”

 

https://716sportspost.com/2019/01/28/more-outsiders-continue-josh-allen-narrative/

 

 

"The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career, according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

 

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt and team passing efficiency. These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to only be used on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.

 

It's important not to overestimate the importance of a small difference in the QBASE projections. Most of this year's top quarterbacks are grouped together in the middle of the scale. It's a bit of a surprise that Sam Darnold came out with a lower QBASE rating than some of the other top prospects -- Josh Rosen, for example. But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

 

However, there is one top prospect who QBASE clearly likes ahead of all the others, and one top prospect whose statistical profile is a gigantic red flag. We explain both projections below, along with the QBASE projections for six other top quarterbacks based on Scouts Inc. rankings for the 2018 draft."

 

[ Shouldn't surprise anyone that it's Allen who is the 'gigantic red flag,' or that it loved Mayfield. ]

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/22870189/2018-nfl-draft-projecting-booms-busts-top-quarterback-prospects

 

 

 

 

 

These are old explanations of Schatz's feelings about Allen. But he says he hasn't changed. That's the kind of thing he bases those opinions on.

 

Doesn't mean he'll be right. Or wrong. It's just an opinion with something to back it up. But there are plenty of opinions backed up one way or another that are positive and plenty that are negative.

 

 

 

By the way, I found that last story through a google search which came up with an old TBD thread based around Schatz's post. Had some classic anti-Allen pre-draft Bills fan takes on it.

 

 

 

TransplantBillsFan has one where he mentions Darnold, Rosen, Jackson and Mayfield, mentioning that he liked Mayfield best, but continuing, "Those 4 QBs are the QBs I'm most excited about! And honestly I'll even be fine if we traded up a couple spots for Jackson. It's seriously baffling me that Allen has somehow been thrust unanimously in front of Jackson."

 

But he's far from the only one. Lots of Allen dislike on that thread.

[BringBackFergy]

Who the ***** is Aaron Schatz (his bed)??

[Another Fan]

Imo there's just too much over analysis on every move, breathe, throw, catch, etc..  a player makes.  Heck if he farts while looking to his left someone will create an algorithm for that.  

 

With Allen there's definitely promising stuff but ultimately time will still tell.  

[fansince88]

What are we going to do now! Now that whats-his-name doesn't like our QB that he wasn't fond of before he was drafted? We are DOOMED!

[Big Turk]

Its OK...let people doubt him...they SHOULD have some doubt still...it's his job to overcome it and change their mind, and this kid has everything you want in a player, person and his makeup to do just that.

[JESSEFEFFER]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

His basis for his opinion is his website's algorithm called QBASE:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018

 

According to that metric, Josh Allen has a 37.3% chance of becoming an adequate starter or better. Which is why I don't understand his relentless pessimism of Allen's chances. A better than 1 in 3 chance of becoming at least an adequate starter is really not all that unlikely. So even by the numbers his own website uses, Schatz's opinion doesn't make sense. Does he trust his own numbers or not? Imagine rolling a die and ridiculing the idea that a 1 or a 2 could be rolled. That is essentially what he is doing. Unless he doesn't trust his own algorithm which would be weird.

 

Nice addition to the discussion.  I would say that the 37.3% should be higher now.  That the numbers Josh had that, with context applied, would have boosted that number.  Before the draft we did not know if the athleticism Josh showed at Wyoming in the MWC would show up in the NFL against the best athletes the sport has to offer and he showed up.  There was objective evidence in the numbers that Josh was better at the end of the year than the beginning.  He did manage to win half the games he started and finished.  These should boost his QBASE.

 

If Aaron had said that he had a QBASE of 37.3 to start and now its 49.9 or whatever, I would have respected his opinion more.  They did not ask and he did not volunteer the basis of his opinion after year 1.

Edited May 25, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why people get up in arms over all this stuff. 

 

These guys do a lot of research on these players and then give a prediction based on their research. It's a nice job to have because it doesn't matter if they are right or wrong, they'll still have a job.... it's just his opinion on a player that happened to be picked by that Bills. It has no barring on if Allen will be successful or not so I never understood why people got pissed over this stuff.

 

 

This board is extremely sensitive to any criticism of Josh Allen, and creates new threads constantly trying to demonstrate his competence, for one simple reason: we haven't had a good QB in a very long time and people feel very insecure about Allen's merit as a QB.

 

He kind of, sort of, somewhat seems like a talented guy and compared to the steady stream of poor QBs this franchise has endured for many years, he seems like he might be better than the norm.

 

But that is balanced against a deep seeded fear that he may in fact not be better than any of the others, the entire McBean mini-era may just be a lot of treading water and wheel spinning, and we may in fact still need to go find a real QB.

 

The one thing this board tends to agree on is that the Bills will never really be the team we want them to be without a very good QB at the helm, so there is enormous hope/pressure/concern regarding that state of affairs.

 

Allen needs to make enormous strides this year and he has to be asked to things like actually try to read a defense, select the best throwing option, and then accurately deliver the ball to that receiver.  He wasn't asked to do that very often last year, if at all.  

 

It remains to be seen if Allen will be able to stay in the league for a lot longer as a starting QB.

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Nice addition to the discussion.  I would say that the 37.3% should be higher now.  That the numbers Josh had that, with context applied, would have boosted that number.  Before the draft we did not know if the athleticism Josh showed at Wyoming in the MWC would show up in the NFL against the best athletes the sport has to offer and he showed up.  There was objective evidence in the numbers that Josh was better at the end of the year than the beginning.  He did manage to win half the games he started and finished.  These should boost his QBASE.

 

If Aaron had said that he had a QBASE of 37.3 to start and now its 49.9 or whatever, I would have respected his opinion more.  They did not ask and he did not volunteer the basis of his opinion after year 1.

Good points.  I also think the general thought is he will improve, which is completely reasonable.  However, and I call it the Mike Vick Effect, very athletic qbs who are better runners than passers (which Allen is right now) can come out and do damage to defenses.  However when DCs get more tape and develop schemes to keep them in the pocket, they struggle.  Besides being a dog murdering scumbag, that’s the main reason why Vick was never a consistent franchise qb.

 

im fairly confident Allen won’t run a dog fighting ring (maybe ?) but he will be in for an adjustment this year as opposed to last year when there wasn’t a ton of tape.  The great ones adjust so hopefully he does. 

[cba fan]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I know right.  If Allen was on the Fins, what would Bills fans’ opinions be after being a 56% passer in a lower D1 conference where he wasn’t on any of the All MWC teams; completed 52% of his passers his rookie year with 10 tds and 12 ints?  I’m sure we would talking about how the Fins have a stud franchise qb. ?

 

right or wrong, I try to be consistent.  I didn’t want the Bills to draft Allen. I hate that I’m not blindly behind because I have serious doubts.  I know he is a hard work and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I know people who have meant him and said he’s a good dude.  But I need to see him win with arm.  I think the Bills could have gotten him a better OC (I’m amazed how sold everyone is on Daboll) and a legit 1 type receiver.  I do like the improved oline and he plays with a good defense to keep him in games.

 

but to sum it up, if Allen wasn’t a Bill, fans wont be sold either (also silly to be sold on a qb after one year).  I hate that I still have the doubts and there aren’t many things that I would love to be wrong on than Allen.  But sorry. After years of defending every Bills qb (compare Losman and Favre’s 1st 2 years), I need to see it.  So do non Bills fans. And hopefully, we do. 

As a Bills fan I would be hoping Fins had a bad QB if they had Allen. However, if I was a Fin fan last year not following all the plays of Allen on Bills, I would be pretty worried he is going to pan out as a Cam Newton type or better as I am watching hilite after hilite of plays many QB's can not do. Allen had a lot of hilites for only playing a partial year.

 

On a side note. I have worries Darnold is the real deal for Jets even as he has few eye poping hilite plays.

[John from Riverside]

This is my problem with his analysis....

 

He can say what he wants about Josh Allen....I dont agree with it but whatever...agree to dissagree one of us will be proven right soon.

 

My problem is his his take on our defense.....his take is "they were number 2 or 3 last year and they will not be number 2 or number 3 this year just cause defense is inconsistant"

 

NO....i do not agree with this....if the the defense continues to add pieces (which they have) they have a very good chance to be consistant year to year and when I look at weaknesses of Buffalo last year where were they?

 

- Corner depth....I feel like Buffalo addressed this in a big way....we didnt even know we had a starter in Wallace for a while..now we actually have several guys that can start

 

- Pass rush.....Oliver is going to make a impact year 1.....and I am a BIG fan of Kyle WIlliams but the fact of the matter is his play WAS slipping......that position was infused with a young dynamic player with Oliver and the depth at the position is good.

 

- Lets also not forget that when a offense cant run the ball it is very hard on a defense in general....if this team turns that around the D will be more rested.......the prime player will be able to stay on the field longer.   All of that.

 

So.....gonna have to agree to dissagree with him

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, cba fan said:

As a Bills fan I would be hoping Fins had a bad QB if they had Allen. However, if I was a Fin fan last year not following all the plays of Allen on Bills, I would be pretty worried he is going to pan out as a Cam Newton type or better as I am watching hilite after hilite of plays many QB's can not do. Allen had a lot of hilites for only playing a partial year.

 

On a side note. I have worries Darnold is the real deal for Jets even as he has few eye poping hilite plays.

My only counter to this is Newton was dominant in the best conference in college, won a heisman and title, and set rookie passing records.  If I had to make a comparison for Allen, it might be Vince Young Rookie year. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounVi00.htm

[TigerJ]

Given that the Bills' over/under in Vegas is 6.5, he's obviously not alone.  While I am hopeful, Josh Allen as franchise QB is not a done deal until he demonstrates statistical improvement and the team is winning games more consistently.  This upcoming season should tell us a lot.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

This is my problem with his analysis....

 

He can say what he wants about Josh Allen....I dont agree with it but whatever...agree to dissagree one of us will be proven right soon.

 

My problem is his his take on our defense.....his take is "they were number 2 or 3 last year and they will not be number 2 or number 3 this year just cause defense is inconsistant"

 

NO....i do not agree with this....if the the defense continues to add pieces (which they have) they have a very good chance to be consistant year to year and when I look at weaknesses of Buffalo last year where were they?

 

- Corner depth....I feel like Buffalo addressed this in a big way....we didnt even know we had a starter in Wallace for a while..now we actually have several guys that can start

 

- Pass rush.....Oliver is going to make a impact year 1.....and I am a BIG fan of Kyle WIlliams but the fact of the matter is his play WAS slipping......that position was infused with a young dynamic player with Oliver and the depth at the position is good.

 

- Lets also not forget that when a offense cant run the ball it is very hard on a defense in general....if this team turns that around the D will be more rested.......the prime player will be able to stay on the field longer.   All of that.

 

So.....gonna have to agree to dissagree with him

I mean these are a lot of IFs at this point. I’m very critical of our offensive moves but I’m completely sold on our defense.  However, there were some incidents of bend but don’t break moments.  Also, teams did take the foot of the gas petal in some games when we got blown out. 

 

Still, I think we have at worst a top 10 defense and maybe higher if Oliver can be as good as he has the talent to be. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

This is my problem with his analysis....

 

He can say what he wants about Josh Allen....I dont agree with it but whatever...agree to dissagree one of us will be proven right soon.

 

My problem is his his take on our defense.....his take is "they were number 2 or 3 last year and they will not be number 2 or number 3 this year just cause defense is inconsistant"

 

NO....i do not agree with this....if the the defense continues to add pieces (which they have) they have a very good chance to be consistant year to year and when I look at weaknesses of Buffalo last year where were they?

 

- Corner depth....I feel like Buffalo addressed this in a big way....we didnt even know we had a starter in Wallace for a while..now we actually have several guys that can start

 

- Pass rush.....Oliver is going to make a impact year 1.....and I am a BIG fan of Kyle WIlliams but the fact of the matter is his play WAS slipping......that position was infused with a young dynamic player with Oliver and the depth at the position is good.

 

- Lets also not forget that when a offense cant run the ball it is very hard on a defense in general....if this team turns that around the D will be more rested.......the prime player will be able to stay on the field longer.   All of that.

 

So.....gonna have to agree to dissagree with him

 

He is making an assumption based on a historical trend.  Defensive production is more variant but he was too eager to assume it will regress.  They lacked in the takeaway and redzone production departments.  They could be BETTER if they improve in those areas.

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Its OK...let people doubt him...they SHOULD have some doubt still...it's his job to overcome it and change their mind, and this kid has everything you want in a player, person and his makeup to do just that.

Well said.  I guess as fans we treat our players as family and get mad if someone says anything bad about them.  Personally, I couldn’t care and I hope Allen doesn’t either.  It’s not going to make him throw the ball farther.  The best part of sports is he has the power to determine his career.