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QB Rankings Thought Exercise


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1 minute ago, MJS said:

Hmm. I disagree with much of your list, but I think the biggest issue is how low you have Drew Brees.

 

1 pick for say the next three years... who does he replace in the top 8? 

 

Even this year he's a hard pick because you just don't know if his body will hold up... If I had to pick a QB for one year right now it would be hard picking Brees or Brady. 

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The ranking makes little sense since it seems to be more of a growth potential and career horizon list compared to where can the  QB take my team this season.     Brady , Ryan,  Brees, Roethlisberger should not be lower than Wentz, Luck, Mayfield in any reasonable ranking.   The may be older but I would expect them to perform at a very high level still compared to a lot of the young guns.      If we are talking about where Brady and Brees and even Roethlisberger may be 3 seasons from now,  then maybe your list makes sense?

 

It should be interesting to see how Mahomes does without two of the key playmakers he relied on for a good part of last season.   

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15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I've always felt that the best way to sort QBs is in 5 tiers:

 

Elite - All you need is this guy and you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender every year

Franchise - This guy can be a key contributor (even if he's not the numero uno factor) in helping you win a Super Bowl

Starter - He's not a franchise QB, but if everything else goes nearly perfect, this guy can get hot and win you a Super Bowl

Unknown - Guys that have started for fewer than 2 seasons and haven't looked totally dominant or totally lost

Stopgap - Everyone else

 

With the above in mind, here's what I've got (these are listed in tiers, not in order within the tier):

 

Elite

Ben, Luck, Rodgers, Brees

 

Franchise

Brady (not elite any more), Watson, Mahomes (if he comes close to last year's performance without Hill/Hunt he'll move up), Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Stafford, Cousins, Newton, Ryan, Eli, A. Smith, Dak, Wentz

 

Starter

Dalton, Mariota, Foles, Carr, Flacco, Winston

 

Unknown

Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Garoppolo, Trubisky

well done. I'm hoping, as most bills fans, allen makes strides from the unknown and placed with the franchise guys. not concerned about his completion % like some. I believe in his all around competitiveness and strength, something special about the kid.

 

call me a homer, I don't care.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I've always felt that the best way to sort QBs is in 5 tiers:

 

Elite - All you need is this guy and you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender every year

Franchise - This guy can be a key contributor (even if he's not the numero uno factor) in helping you win a Super Bowl

Starter - He's not a franchise QB, but if everything else goes nearly perfect, this guy can get hot and win you a Super Bowl

Unknown - Guys that have started for fewer than 2 seasons and haven't looked totally dominant or totally lost

Stopgap - Everyone else

 

With the above in mind, here's what I've got (these are listed in tiers, not in order within the tier):

 

Elite

Ben, Luck, Rodgers, Brees

 

Franchise

Brady (not elite any more), Watson, Mahomes (if he comes close to last year's performance without Hill/Hunt he'll move up), Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Stafford, Cousins, Newton, Ryan, Eli, A. Smith, Dak, Wentz

 

Starter

Dalton, Mariota, Foles, Carr, Flacco, Winston

 

Unknown

Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Garoppolo, Trubisky

 

Great categories and I think they're all in the right spot.

 

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27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I've always felt that the best way to sort QBs is in 5 tiers:

 

Elite - All you need is this guy and you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender every year

Franchise - This guy can be a key contributor (even if he's not the numero uno factor) in helping you win a Super Bowl

Starter - He's not a franchise QB, but if everything else goes nearly perfect, this guy can get hot and win you a Super Bowl

Unknown - Guys that have started for fewer than 2 seasons and haven't looked totally dominant or totally lost

Stopgap - Everyone else

 

With the above in mind, here's what I've got (these are listed in tiers, not in order within the tier):

 

Elite

Ben, Luck, Rodgers, Brees

 

Franchise

Brady (not elite any more), Watson, Mahomes (if he comes close to last year's performance without Hill/Hunt he'll move up), Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Stafford, Cousins, Newton, Ryan, Eli, A. Smith, Dak, Wentz

 

Starter

Dalton, Mariota, Foles, Carr, Flacco, Winston

 

Unknown

Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Garoppolo, Trubisky

 

I like your ranking system, but I disagree with some of the placements... 

 

I don't think by your definition that Ben is Elite. (especially if Brady isn't) If Brady Isn't Elite then I don't think that Brees would be. WIlson should definitely be elite. Dak is a starter, definitely not a franchise guy. Eli is done. Smith doesn't even need to be ranked per se. The rest I can probably agree with. 

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1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

The Dog days of the NFL offseason... 

 

I got this idea from Around the NFL Podcast and tweaked it a little bit. 

 

I wanted to rank the starting QB's of the NFL while looking at all of the factors. From age, to experience, to injury. I used a bit of a mix between ranking them as they are now, and asking who I would want to start a team with right now. 

 

Feel free to flame on, or to make counterpoints/do your own...

 

1.       Russell Wilson

               Between Wilson and Mahomes it came down to production over time.

2.       Patrick Mahomes

               Mahomes could be 1 and it not be a stretch- I do want to see who he is gonna be if Hill is gone.

3.       Andrew Luck

               Could have been higher, but that shoulder injury stays in the mind slightly.

4.       Aaron Rodgers

               Age mixed with recent reports tarnished this- also, lack of overall accomplishment in the past few years.

5.       Carson Wentz

              Talent wise could be top two, injuries pushed him down.

6.       Baker Mayfield

              Was originally higher but need to see more than one year.

7.       Matt Ryan

               Statistically he’s a top three, but he needs to get the monkey off his back.

8.       Tom Brady

               Even though I wanted to put him at 33 right behind Nathan Peterman, I had to be realistic. This is probably actually low, but Father time will get his due sooner than later (fingers crossed)

9.       Drew Brees

               The guillotine of time is hanging over his head as well…

10.   Deshaun Watson

               Consistency has been an issue.

11.   Jared Goff

               The Superbowl knocked him way down on this list.  

12.   Ben Roethlisburger

               Not sure I trust him to be mentally there

13.   Phillip Rivers

               Can he win big games? Also, is his age slowing him down?

14.   Nick Foles

              Right near the middle for him, which seems appropriate. His biggest boost is that we know he can win when the chips are down.

15.   Kirk Cousins

              His biggest detraction is the exact inverse of the above.

16.   Jimmy Garapolo

              Lot of questions to be answered.

17.   Josh Allen

             These next two have youth working in their favor. I see them at the same level so I listed Allen above because duh.

18.   Sam Darnold

              I personally would have him lower, but I put him here with Allen to counter my bias.

19.   Dak Prescott

              Meh. (but with upside cause he’s young)

20.   Matthew Stafford

              Could probably be higher, but I don’t feel compelled to move him up.

21.   Cam Newton

              Newton should be higher, but that shoulder scares me.

22.   Mitchell Trubisky

             I don’t have any clue how this guy will turn out.

23.   Derek Carr

             I thought he was great at one time, now he’s just somebody that I used to know..

24.   Lamar Jackson

             College offenses are great, but at some point he’s going to have to play the QB position.

25.   Dwayne Haskins

             No idea on this kid.

26.   Kyler Murray

              This is higher than I initially thought he would be, but I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think his stature will do well, and I wasn't crazy about how he handled himself pre-draft. But time will tell.

27.   Marcus Mariota

              Who the heck knows at this point…

28.   Josh Rosen

                I didn’t like him before the draft and haven’t been given much reason to change my mind. We’ll see.

29.   Andy Dalton

                Meh. (but without upside)

30.   Joe Flacco

               This probably isn’t fair to who he is right at this moment, but the idea of starting a team with him is not great.

31.   Jameis Winston 

               He has a chance to redeem himself this coming year, but he has a lot of work to do.

32.   Eli Manning

              Shoulda transitioned into the “mentor” role 3 years ago, now It’s just painful.

Criteria appear hazy. If you want to draft one today for a franchise - Mahomes,  Mayfield etc. would be higher. If you wanted for the upcoming season - Brady, Brees and Rodgers would be higher. I am not sure how to weight the two or even if it makes sense to weight both. Reagardless of the weighting,  Kyler Murray is too low. GMs were drooling over him. Would have gone top 5 even if Cards had passed on him.

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Come on with Allen at 17.  At least try to be somewhat objective. Cam is too low.  Winston below Mariota??? What has Jimmy G done to be that high? Brady below Matt Ryan? What?

 

with all due respect, this is like a list of super models that has Melissa McCarthy #1.

 

Durrrrrr...Allen at 17?  What jersey number does he wear?

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15 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

I like your ranking system, but I disagree with some of the placements... 

 

I don't think by your definition that Ben is Elite. (especially if Brady isn't) If Brady Isn't Elite then I don't think that Brees would be. WIlson should definitely be elite. Dak is a starter, definitely not a franchise guy. Eli is done. Smith doesn't even need to be ranked per se. The rest I can probably agree with. 

 

Here's my thought process with the guys you mentioned:

Ben: receivers come and go, OCs come and go, RBs come and go, and yet there's Pittsburgh in the thick of the AFC Championship race every season. He just completed a season in which he threw for 5,100 yards and had the 3rd-lowest INT %age of his career.

Brady: NE centered the entire focus of their 2018 offseason on becoming a run-first team. He did not finish in the top 10 in the NFL in passer rating, TDs, YPA, TD %age, INT %age, or completion percentage. He's still a franchise QB; he's just not Tom Brady anymore.

Wilson: I thought about putting him among the elite. He was outstanding in 2018. To an extent, he suffered a bit from how much Seattle relied upon their run game in my eyes. I probably wouldn't argue too hard if anyone moved him up a tier given his TD numbers, INT %age, and TD %age.

Dak: I honestly don't see why he's not a franchise guy. Remove him from that offense and replace him with someone from the next tier (say, Dalton or Flacco) and I think there's a clear drop off.

Eli: yeah, he probably could be dropped into the starter tier, but when you beat Brady 3x in your career, twice in the Super Bowl (in heroic fashion no less), you get a whole lotta leeway from Bandit :lol:

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Here's my thought process with the guys you mentioned:

Ben: receivers come and go, OCs come and go, RBs come and go, and yet there's Pittsburgh in the thick of the AFC Championship race every season. He just completed a season in which he threw for 5,100 yards and had the 3rd-lowest INT %age of his career.

Brady: NE centered the entire focus of their 2018 offseason on becoming a run-first team. He did not finish in the top 10 in the NFL in passer rating, TDs, YPA, TD %age, INT %age, or completion percentage. He's still a franchise QB; he's just not Tom Brady anymore.

Wilson: I thought about putting him among the elite. He was outstanding in 2018. To an extent, he suffered a bit from how much Seattle relied upon their run game in my eyes. I probably wouldn't argue too hard if anyone moved him up a tier given his TD numbers, INT %age, and TD %age.

Dak: I honestly don't see why he's not a franchise guy. Remove him from that offense and replace him with someone from the next tier (say, Dalton or Flacco) and I think there's a clear drop off.

Eli: yeah, he probably could be dropped into the starter tier, but when you beat Brady 3x in your career, twice in the Super Bowl (in heroic fashion no less), you get a whole lotta leeway from Bandit :lol:

 

Ben: valid argument... I'm just not sure what to think with their inability to win when the chips are down anymore... Not sure whose fault it is.

 

Brady: I get it. I guess that's the problem with him is deciding what's him and what's the Hood.. He's still got the rings so it's hard to say. 

 

Wilson: I think Wilson is probably the elitest of the group because he has rarely had anything to work with and he gets the job done. I think the counter to the run heavy argument is that they lost in the playoffs cause they were too dumb to let Wilson do his thing. 

 

Dak: I dunno... He's a good QB, I just think he's playing for a very good team and doesn't do all that much. We'll see. 

 

Eli: Definitely HOFer. Just needs to retire and focus on commercials with Big bro. 

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20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Here's my thought process with the guys you mentioned:

Ben: receivers come and go, OCs come and go, RBs come and go, and yet there's Pittsburgh in the thick of the AFC Championship race every season. He just completed a season in which he threw for 5,100 yards and had the 3rd-lowest INT %age of his career.

Brady: NE centered the entire focus of their 2018 offseason on becoming a run-first team. He did not finish in the top 10 in the NFL in passer rating, TDs, YPA, TD %age, INT %age, or completion percentage. He's still a franchise QB; he's just not Tom Brady anymore.

Wilson: I thought about putting him among the elite. He was outstanding in 2018. To an extent, he suffered a bit from how much Seattle relied upon their run game in my eyes. I probably wouldn't argue too hard if anyone moved him up a tier given his TD numbers, INT %age, and TD %age.

Dak: I honestly don't see why he's not a franchise guy. Remove him from that offense and replace him with someone from the next tier (say, Dalton or Flacco) and I think there's a clear drop off.

Eli: yeah, he probably could be dropped into the starter tier, but when you beat Brady 3x in your career, twice in the Super Bowl (in heroic fashion no less), you get a whole lotta leeway from Bandit :lol:

Wilson is as elite as elite can be. 

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6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

As compelling as that blanket statement is, perhaps a bit of context would add weight?

The context of 1) Using your eyes and 2) Looking at his numbers especially considering the weapons and offensive line he’s had, should be context enough.

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3 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

The context of 1) Using your eyes and 2) Looking at his numbers especially considering the weapons and offensive line he’s had, should be context enough.

 

Seattle lead the NFL in rushing last year, and Tyler Lockett was the NFL's top WR in DVOA, so using the relative weakness of his supporting cast as evidence doesn't quite pass muster.

 

I'm open to hearing your case, but it helps if you actually make one.

 

No offense intended 

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9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Seattle lead the NFL in rushing last year, and Tyler Lockett was the NFL's top WR in DVOA, so using the relative weakness of his supporting cast as evidence doesn't quite pass muster.

 

I'm open to hearing your case, but it helps if you actually make one.

 

No offense intended 

I think Wilson is a major reason for the run game success and Lockett.  Lockett is a very specialized player that Wilson has made into a very good player.  Baldwin wasn’t drafted. Wilson, without the attempts, makes receivers stars.  I was late on the Wilson train but I agree he is elite.  Not to mention, he has spent years behind a garbage oline. 

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

I've always felt that the best way to sort QBs is in 5 tiers:

 

Elite - All you need is this guy and you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender every year

Franchise - This guy can be a key contributor (even if he's not the numero uno factor) in helping you win a Super Bowl

Starter - He's not a franchise QB, but if everything else goes nearly perfect, this guy can get hot and win you a Super Bowl

Unknown - Guys that have started for fewer than 2 seasons and haven't looked totally dominant or totally lost

Stopgap - Everyone else

 

With the above in mind, here's what I've got (these are listed in tiers, not in order within the tier):

 

Elite

Ben, Luck, Rodgers, Brees

 

Franchise

Brady (not elite any more), Watson, Mahomes (if he comes close to last year's performance without Hill/Hunt he'll move up), Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Stafford, Cousins, Newton, Ryan, Eli, A. Smith, Dak, Wentz

 

Starter

Dalton, Mariota, Foles, Carr, Flacco, Winston

 

Unknown

Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Garoppolo, Trubisky

Agree with pretty much all of this but I still think Brady is elite.  You don’t keep going to SBs if you aren’t elite.  His last 2 years would arguably be the greatest 2 seasons of any Bills qb. 

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3 hours ago, whatdrought said:

The Dog days of the NFL offseason... 

 

I got this idea from Around the NFL Podcast and tweaked it a little bit. 

 

I wanted to rank the starting QB's of the NFL while looking at all of the factors. From age, to experience, to injury. I used a bit of a mix between ranking them as they are now, and asking who I would want to start a team with right now. 

 

Feel free to flame on, or to make counterpoints/do your own...

 

1.       Russell Wilson

               Between Wilson and Mahomes it came down to production over time.

2.       Patrick Mahomes

               Mahomes could be 1 and it not be a stretch- I do want to see who he is gonna be if Hill is gone.

3.       Andrew Luck

               Could have been higher, but that shoulder injury stays in the mind slightly.

4.       Aaron Rodgers

               Age mixed with recent reports tarnished this- also, lack of overall accomplishment in the past few years.

5.       Carson Wentz

              Talent wise could be top two, injuries pushed him down.

6.       Baker Mayfield

              Was originally higher but need to see more than one year.

7.       Matt Ryan

               Statistically he’s a top three, but he needs to get the monkey off his back.

8.       Tom Brady

               Even though I wanted to put him at 33 right behind Nathan Peterman, I had to be realistic. This is probably actually low, but Father time will get his due sooner than later (fingers crossed)

9.       Drew Brees

               The guillotine of time is hanging over his head as well…

10.   Deshaun Watson

               Consistency has been an issue.

11.   Jared Goff

               The Superbowl knocked him way down on this list.  

12.   Ben Roethlisburger

               Not sure I trust him to be mentally there

13.   Phillip Rivers

               Can he win big games? Also, is his age slowing him down?

14.   Nick Foles

              Right near the middle for him, which seems appropriate. His biggest boost is that we know he can win when the chips are down.

15.   Kirk Cousins

              His biggest detraction is the exact inverse of the above.

16.   Jimmy Garapolo

              Lot of questions to be answered.

17.   Josh Allen

             These next two have youth working in their favor. I see them at the same level so I listed Allen above because duh.

18.   Sam Darnold

              I personally would have him lower, but I put him here with Allen to counter my bias.

19.   Dak Prescott

              Meh. (but with upside cause he’s young)

20.   Matthew Stafford

              Could probably be higher, but I don’t feel compelled to move him up.

21.   Cam Newton

              Newton should be higher, but that shoulder scares me.

22.   Mitchell Trubisky

             I don’t have any clue how this guy will turn out.

23.   Derek Carr

             I thought he was great at one time, now he’s just somebody that I used to know..

24.   Lamar Jackson

             College offenses are great, but at some point he’s going to have to play the QB position.

25.   Dwayne Haskins

             No idea on this kid.

26.   Kyler Murray

              This is higher than I initially thought he would be, but I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think his stature will do well, and I wasn't crazy about how he handled himself pre-draft. But time will tell.

27.   Marcus Mariota

              Who the heck knows at this point…

28.   Josh Rosen

                I didn’t like him before the draft and haven’t been given much reason to change my mind. We’ll see.

29.   Andy Dalton

                Meh. (but without upside)

30.   Joe Flacco

               This probably isn’t fair to who he is right at this moment, but the idea of starting a team with him is not great.

31.   Jameis Winston 

               He has a chance to redeem himself this coming year, but he has a lot of work to do.

32.   Eli Manning

              Shoulda transitioned into the “mentor” role 3 years ago, now It’s just painful.

Great topic!! 

 

Off the top of my head, Wentz, Goff, Foles and Cousins too high and Allen, Darnold, Stafford and Newton too low.

 

It’s tough to rank guys like Brady and Brees because today, they’d be right near the top. Long-term would you rather have Brees or Ryan (and his massive salary)? It depends I guess. In 4 years, it might be Ryan but is that worth the short-term? I don’t know the answer. 

 

This is is a really fun exercise though.

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Seattle lead the NFL in rushing last year, and Tyler Lockett was the NFL's top WR in DVOA, so using the relative weakness of his supporting cast as evidence doesn't quite pass muster.

 

I'm open to hearing your case, but it helps if you actually make one.

 

No offense intended 

Using DVOA for a receiver who averaged 60 yards per game doesn’t mean much. Especially since using DVOA as part of an argument towards the eliteness of a QB is reaching to begin with.

 

 And the fact the Seahawks led the NFL in rushing and Wilson still managed to throw 35 TD’s with and 8.1 Y/A and only 7 picks and a 110.9 QB rating does nothing but boost my argument.

 

Again, as I said originally which was correct...

 

Wilson is as elite as elite gets.

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3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I've always felt that the best way to sort QBs is in 5 tiers:

 

Elite - All you need is this guy and you're a bona fide Super Bowl contender every year

Franchise - This guy can be a key contributor (even if he's not the numero uno factor) in helping you win a Super Bowl

Starter - He's not a franchise QB, but if everything else goes nearly perfect, this guy can get hot and win you a Super Bowl

Unknown - Guys that have started for fewer than 2 seasons and haven't looked totally dominant or totally lost

Stopgap - Everyone else

 

With the above in mind, here's what I've got (these are listed in tiers, not in order within the tier):

 

Elite

Ben, Luck, Rodgers, Brees

 

Franchise

Brady (not elite any more), Watson, Mahomes (if he comes close to last year's performance without Hill/Hunt he'll move up), Rivers, Wilson, Goff, Stafford, Cousins, Newton, Ryan, Eli, A. Smith, Dak, Wentz

 

Starter

Dalton, Mariota, Foles, Carr, Flacco, Winston

 

Unknown

Allen, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Jackson, Murray, Garoppolo, Trubisky

 

Agree broadly. I still think Brady is elite and at this point I think Eli is just a starter and I doubt Alex Smith plays football again. 

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