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Buffalo Sabres and NHL: 2019/20: Sabres season officially over. Draft lottery June 26th


BillsFan4

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8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

Good news! 

This shouldn't be surprising. The players have guaranteed contracts and the cap is predicated on league revenue. The teams and players are mutually invested in growing the business side of the sport. There are always issues that engender conflict between labor and management. The most important issue is money. And both sides have a stake in the success of the business. The one issue that the league will eventually have to address is the length of the contracts. I'm sure that after some push/pull they will come to an accord that both sides can live with. 

 

In every pro sport the dynamic seems to be the same i.e. the stars get the big money and the rest is divvied up.  

 

 

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43 minutes ago, JohnC said:

This shouldn't be surprising. The players have guaranteed contracts and the cap is predicated on league revenue. The teams and players are mutually invested in growing the business side of the sport. There are always issues that engender conflict between labor and management. The most important issue is money. And both sides have a stake in the success of the business. The one issue that the league will eventually have to address is the length of the contracts. I'm sure that after some push/pull they will come to an accord that both sides can live with. 

 

In every pro sport the dynamic seems to be the same i.e. the stars get the big money and the rest is divvied up.  

 

 

 

Im not surprised the NHL didn’t opt out, but the good news was that it sounds like the players may not opt out either. 

 

NHL CBA talks don’t have the best reputation for going smoothly. 

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1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Im not surprised the NHL didn’t opt out, but the good news was that it sounds like the players may not opt out either. 

 

NHL CBA talks don’t have the best reputation for going smoothly. 

If I recall correctly the last time there was a major lockout that laid to waste a good portion of the season the owners stood firm and forced the union to accept a cap system that brought more cost certainty to teams. It allowed small market teams to compete with the richer big markets. Looking back it benefited the owners and also the players. Shortly after the financial restructuring of the league the Sabres were competing with the best teams for Stanley Cup. 

 

In the Sabres recent history it has gone through three owners in Rigas, Golasano and Pegula. Without a doubt there were some financial challenges that this franchise has gone through. But anyone who critically evaluates this franchise and its recent history of extended mediocrity has to admit that an accumulation of bad decisions by the hockey brain trust has repeatedly set this franchise back and made the road to success a longer journey than it should have been. I believe we are on the right track (although many people understandably don't). In my mind we are still a couple of years away from being a serious team. 

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The below link is an article that Mike Harrington wrote for the Buffalo News. The core of the article is that Botterill and his staff are copying the Pittsburgh model in building a franchise. The emphasis is on drafting and developing young players in your system. It is not a quick process but it is the best approach for sustained success. 

 

If you examine the deals that Botterill made to add to the talent base (Montour, Miller, Johansson, Vesey, Jokiharju) he didn't give up much or mortgage the future for the present. The talent base is clearly expanding. It is still going to take more time to become a serious team. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/09/01/buffalo-sabres-nhl-prospects-challenge-randy-sexton-dylan-cozens-ukko-pekka-luukkonen-will-borgen-analysis-2019/

 

The below link is a mailbag response by Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/08/29/buffalo-sabres-victor-olofsson-rasmus-asplund-rasmus-ristolainen-dylan-cozens-will-borgen-nhl-analysis-2019/?view=getnewpost

Edited by JohnC
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On 8/31/2019 at 4:29 PM, JohnC said:

If I recall correctly the last time there was a major lockout that laid to waste a good portion of the season the owners stood firm and forced the union to accept a cap system that brought more cost certainty to teams. It allowed small market teams to compete with the richer big markets. Looking back it benefited the owners and also the players. Shortly after the financial restructuring of the league the Sabres were competing with the best teams for Stanley Cup. 

 

In the Sabres recent history it has gone through three owners in Rigas, Golasano and Pegula. Without a doubt there were some financial challenges that this franchise has gone through. But anyone who critically evaluates this franchise and its recent history of extended mediocrity has to admit that an accumulation of bad decisions by the hockey brain trust has repeatedly set this franchise back and made the road to success a longer journey than it should have been. I believe we are on the right track (although many people understandably don't). In my mind we are still a couple of years away from being a serious team. 

There have been 4 NHL lockouts since 1992. The most recent was 2012 when they missed 48 games (1/2 the season).

 

You are thinking of the 2004 lockout where they cancelled the entire season. They did a drawing for the top spot I; the draft that year. Sidney Crosby was the prize and the Sabres were one of 4 teams with the best odds to draft him (i can’t remember exactly how they calculated it). 

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Dom Luszczyszyn (at the Athletic. Sub. Required) released his NHL win probabilities for this year and his computer model isn’t too favoring toward the Sabres. 

 

https://theathletic.com/1166232/2019/09/02/luszczyszyn-2019-20-nhl-season-previews/   (all NHL teams)

 

31. Ottawa

30. Detroit

29. LA

28. Buffalo

27. Edmonton 

 

His computer program has the Sabres as the 4th worst team in the NHL this year. 

 

https://theathletic.com/1166711/2019/08/31/2019-20-nhl-season-preview-buffalo-sabres/   (Buffalo Sabres season preview) 

 

This part art was painful to read and hammers home just how bad the Sabres have been in recent years -

 

Quote

Is there ever going to be a light at the end of the dark tunnel in Buffalo? The Sabres have missed the playoffs in eight straight seasons and in that time frame have won just 230 of their 622 games — 23 fewer than Edmonton, the next worst team. In that span, Buffalo has finished 19th, 23rd, 30th, 30th, 23rd, 26th, 31st and 27th. That’s seven straight seasons in the league’s bottom third and five of the last six seasons in which the team finished in the league’s bottom five.

 

On both accounts, the Sabres are in a league of their own. Not a single other team shares their standings pain. In fact, that miserable run transcends the NHL. No team in the NBA, the NFL or MLB has shared the same level of consistent futility as the Sabres have shown over the last seven seasons. (The New York Knicks were the closest with five straight seasons in the bottom 10, with the previous two landing just outside, while the Phoenix Suns have been in the bottom five in four straight seasons, but lack the longevity.) It’s that bad in Buffalo.

 

Depressing... lol. 

 

It’s a very long article, but here’s a general summary -

 

Quote

For Buffalo, it looks like another bottom-five finish as the Sabres land there in 48 percent of simulations. The bottom 10 streak doesn’t look likely to end either with a 77 percent chance of finishing there. The 80-point projection is a small improvement over last year, but at this point, that’s not good enough. Buffalo should have significantly more to show after a lengthy playoff absence.

 

The playoffs are not an impossibility. Just two seasons ago, the Devils made it with a worse chance (4 percent, according to this model) than the one the Sabres have, but as we saw last year, that run was mostly an anomaly..... (cont.)

 

Here’s one of many attached charts - 94% chance at missing the playoffs.

 

If you read the entire article Its not as bad as it first looks. He said in 30% of his models the Sabres earn over 85pts and make a nice improvement over last year. He also said the Sabres had a really nice offseason, and have a real nice core starting to take shape but their depth is severely lacking still. He says we have the 4th worst ranked bottom 6 in the NHL (by added wins) which he said shows just how big a hole Buffalo is trying to dig out of. 

 

 

DF60A5E7-C9D3-4927-9C2B-8A8BED55E08F.png

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2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

Dom Luszczyszyn (at the Athletic. Sub. Required) released his NHL win probabilities for this year and his computer model isn’t too favoring toward the Sabres. 

 

https://theathletic.com/1166232/2019/09/02/luszczyszyn-2019-20-nhl-season-previews/   (all NHL teams)

 

31. Ottawa

30. Detroit

29. LA

28. Buffalo

27. Edmonton 

 

His computer program has the Sabres as the 4th worst team in the NHL this year. 

 

https://theathletic.com/1166711/2019/08/31/2019-20-nhl-season-preview-buffalo-sabres/   (Buffalo Sabres season preview) 

 

This part art was painful to read and hammers home just how bad the Sabres have been in recent years -

 

 

Depressing... lol. 

 

It’s a very long article, but here’s a general summary -

 

 

Here’s one of many attached charts - 94% chance at missing the playoffs.

 

If you read the entire article Its not as bad as it first looks. He said in 30% of his models the Sabres earn over 85pts and make a nice improvement over last year. He also said the Sabres had a really nice offseason, and have a real nice core starting to take shape but their depth is severely lacking still. He says we have the 4th worst ranked bottom 6 in the NHL (by added wins) which he said shows just how big a hole Buffalo is trying to dig out of. 

 

 

DF60A5E7-C9D3-4927-9C2B-8A8BED55E08F.png

Look at the young players on the roster and the players in the system who are almost ready. Add in the factor that there is a number of players who are playing on the last year of their expiring contracts. So there will be money to add talent and keep talent the following year. Using the past history to make a judgment/calculation is futile. Many of the players involved in the wretched past have been cleansed out. Will young players such as Mitts, Dahlin, Tage, Oldafsson, Pilut, Cozens etc. be better this season? Probably so. And in two years those physically maturing players will be even better than in the prior year.

 

The trajectory is upward. Our GM is not mortgaging the future for short term success that gets you nowhere. Let's not forget that Edmonton traded MVP Taylor Hall for an above average defenseman. And they brought in Lucic and gave him a franchise draining contract. In order to unload him this offseason they had to pay a portion of his salary to Calgary for them to take him off their hands. Edmonton got a short term bump in a season but in the long run it damaged and set the franchise back. They ended up missing the playoffs for two consecutive years after that one year bump.  The GM who made those expedient moves ended up being fired for his short term vision. Our GM is looking at the bigger picture. And despite the wailing of the impatient I agree with the course that the GM is following. Stay the course!   

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5 hours ago, JohnC said:

Look at the young players on the roster and the players in the system who are almost ready. Add in the factor that there is a number of players who are playing on the last year of their expiring contracts. So there will be money to add talent and keep talent the following year. Using the past history to make a judgment/calculation is futile. Many of the players involved in the wretched past have been cleansed out. Will young players such as Mitts, Dahlin, Tage, Oldafsson, Pilut, Cozens etc. be better this season? Probably so. And in two years those physically maturing players will be even better than in the prior year.

 

The trajectory is upward. Our GM is not mortgaging the future for short term success that gets you nowhere. Let's not forget that Edmonton traded MVP Taylor Hall for an above average defenseman. And they brought in Lucic and gave him a franchise draining contract. In order to unload him this offseason they had to pay a portion of his salary to Calgary for them to take him off their hands. Edmonton got a short term bump in a season but in the long run it damaged and set the franchise back. They ended up missing the playoffs for two consecutive years after that one year bump.  The GM who made those expedient moves ended up being fired for his short term vision. Our GM is looking at the bigger picture. And despite the wailing of the impatient I agree with the course that the GM is following. Stay the course!   

The trajectory is upward?  Serious question: wouldn't it be impossible to be downward given the article documents them as the worst team in any sport?

 

 

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15 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

The trajectory is upward?  Serious question: wouldn't it be impossible to be downward given the article documents them as the worst team in any sport?

 

 

I anted to give this the "most awesomest post ever" notification, but alas there was none there.

 

 

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The attached link is a column written by WGR's Paul Hamilton. The Sabres will be better this year because of the added talent and internal improvement. They will be even better next year. That's the process whether you like it or not. 

 

The Sabres earned 62 points two years ago. Last year they earned 76 points. This year my guess is that they will earn between 86 to 88 points. Even for those discordant members who have an up is down perspective that is an upward trajectory 

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/sabres-okposo-impressed-ralph-krueger

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4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The attached link is a column written by WGR's Paul Hamilton. The Sabres will be better this year because of the added talent and internal improvement. They will be even better next year. That's the process whether you like it or not. 

 

The Sabres earned 62 points two years ago. Last year they earned 76 points. This year my guess is that they will earn between 86 to 88 points. Even for those discordant members who have an up is down perspective that is an upward trajectory 

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/sabres-okposo-impressed-ralph-krueger

 

Except that in this orderly fashion that you describe, Toronto is/was way behind us in their rebuild  

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1 minute ago, bbb said:

 

Except that in this orderly fashion that you describe, Toronto is/was way behind us in their rebuild  

I agree with you that the Sabres flubbed their opportunities to systematically build a good team. When Pegula took over he thought that he could throw money around and acquire talent. And as a new owner he put together a staff that was competing against itself. The personnel decisions not only didn't advance the franchise it set it back. That's two wasted years. Then Murray was brought in to take control of the operation. It wasn't that he was an egregiously bad GM but he was not a good GM. That's another couple of years where this franchise didn't move forward. 

 

As you point out Toronto was behind us in a rebuild, or at least most analysts so stated. Toronto demonstrated how making smart coherent decisions leads to success. That's the antithesis of what happened in Buffalo. I believe that Botts is doing the right things in addressing the mistakes of the past and building a franchise from top to bottom in order to have more sustained success. The mistakes of the past and the lost opportunities are the mistakes of the past and lost opportunities that extended the rebuilding process and made it a very excruciating process.

 

As I see it the Sabres should be better this season than they were last year because of the added talent and internal improvement. Next year with a lot of expiring contracts the GM should be able to bring in more talent and have their younger players on the roster and in the system get better. That's the same process that all successful teams follow. Again, I strongly believe that this team is on an upward trajectory. 

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I was listening to WGR's Instigator show where they were discussing the rumor of trading Risto to Detroit for Anthony Mantha. He is a 25 year old winger who is 6'5", 225 lbs. Detroit desperately needs defensemen and we need to build a credible second line. I would make this deal. It would be good for Risto who needs a change of scenery to refresh his game and attitude. In our system we have a few defensemen, such as Borgland, who are close to being ready to move up and play in the NHL. I would gladly make this deal. 

 

I would appreciate the opinions of posters who are knowledgeable about this particular Detroit player. 

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3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I was listening to WGR's Instigator show where they were discussing the rumor of trading Risto to Detroit for Anthony Mantha. He is a 25 year old winger who is 6'5", 225 lbs. Detroit desperately needs defensemen and we need to build a credible second line. I would make this deal. It would be good for Risto who needs a change of scenery to refresh his game and attitude. In our system we have a few defensemen, such as Borgland, who are close to being ready to move up and play in the NHL. I would gladly make this deal. 

 

I would appreciate the opinions of posters who are knowledgeable about this particular Detroit player. 

Forget Anthony Mantha for a minute..if Risto's games suffer due to the constant losing, sure ain't gunna be any better in Detroit..dude might be getting Rosened

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1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Forget Anthony Mantha for a minute..if Risto's games suffer due to the constant losing, sure ain't gunna be any better in Detroit..dude might be getting Rosened

I'm not worried about what a trade would do to his psyche. He doesn't have a say in it. He has a contract and it doesn't appear that he has a no trade clause or a preferred location clause.  It was reported by a number of outlets that he let it be known to the organization that he prefers to be elsewhere. I'm not critical of his stance. It certainly is understandable. 

 

Risto is a good player but also a dumb player. He has been subjected to constant losing in Buffalo and it has worn him down. Even if the team he is going to isn't the best situation for him it still would be a better situation than the stale situation that he is currently in. 

 

As I said in the prior post I would make this deal if it is offered. 

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