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Buffalo Sabres and NHL: 2019/20 Next game: Sat. Oct. 19th at 10:30pm

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37 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

but you did in January!!!

You are too freaking rigid! Stop being such an inflexible ogre. I'm much more flexible and open-minded to the changing of circumstances. I pride myself on being able to make adjustments on the fly. Even pilots who rely on the auto-pilot have to sometimes take control when the conditions warrant it. There is nothing worse than dealing with an ideologue. 

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7 hours ago, JohnC said:

You are too freaking rigid! Stop being such an inflexible ogre. I'm much more flexible and open-minded to the changing of circumstances. I pride myself on being able to make adjustments on the fly. Even pilots who rely on the auto-pilot have to sometimes take control when the conditions warrant it. There is nothing worse than dealing with an ideologue. 

So, don't believe anything you say because tomorrow you'll change your tune?

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8 hours ago, JohnC said:

The attached WGR link is a 11 minute segment with Jeff Hamilton from The Winnipeg Free Press. The discussion is about a trade for Risto and what might come back. 

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/07-17-jeff-hamilton-winnipeg-free-press-howard-and-jeremy

I could definitely get on board with an Ehlers trade. Even though we have a bunch of LWers he’d definitely be our 2nd best one and a guy that fits long term. 

 

I hated this part, though -

 

Quote

"Jack Roslovic is a guy who has seen some time on the first power play unit, he has been up in the top-six for chunks of the season, but he has predominantly been in a bottom-six role and a guy who's kind of waiting to come into his own," Hamilton said. "He's certainly not the only piece in that conversation. I would add in another guy like Mathieu Perreault. He's a guy that isn't coming off his best season, but the numbers guys love him, he can add stability to the second power play unit... He's certainly a solid bottom-six forward."

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/are-sabres-and-jets-match-ristolainen-trade

 

Ive heard this trade suggested s few times now and it’s definitely not a trade I’d make.

 

Perreault adds no (long term) value for me. He’ll be 32 this season, has never once broken 20g in his career or scored more than 45p and makes over $4M a year for the next 2 years. He’s basically a cap dump.

 

Roslovic is nowhere near enough value coming back. He has been a disappointment so far. As of now he’s a bottom 6 guy. That may be all he ever is. He has a chance to become a top 6 player but I sure wouldn’t bet on it by trading Risto with Roslovic as the main piece coming back. 

 

I dont really want any winnipeg trade with a Roslovic in it. He adds just enough value to downgrade whatever other asset was included in the trade. As I’ve said before, I’d rather just trade Risto in a 1 for 1 hockey trade. Or if not I want a top tier prospect. A trade including Roslovic would almost surely be more of a quantity deal - something like Roslovic + pick + player to even out the cap hits. The last thing I want in any Risto trade is quantity. 

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9 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I could definitely get on board with an Ehlers trade. Even though we have a bunch of LWers he’d definitely be our 2nd best one and a guy that fits long term. 

 

I hated this part, though -

 

https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/are-sabres-and-jets-match-ristolainen-trade

 

Ive heard this trade suggested s few times now and it’s definitely not a trade I’d make.

 

Perreault adds no (long term) value for me. He’ll be 32 this season, has never once broken 20g in his career or scored more than 45p and makes over $4M a year for the next 2 years. He’s basically a cap dump.

 

Roslovic is nowhere near enough value coming back. He has been a disappointment so far. As of now he’s a bottom 6 guy. That may be all he ever is. He has a chance to become a top 6 player but I sure wouldn’t bet on it by trading Risto with Roslovic as the main piece coming back. 

 

I dont really want any winnipeg trade with a Roslovic in it. He adds just enough value to downgrade whatever other asset was included in the trade. As I’ve said before, I’d rather just trade Risto in a 1 for 1 hockey trade. Or if not I want a top tier prospect. A trade including Roslovic would almost surely be more of a quantity deal - something like Roslovic + pick + player to even out the cap hits. The last thing I want in any Risto trade is quantity. 

Every thing you said makes sense. One of takeaways from this interview is that a Risto deal may not be a one for one deal, although I would prefer it to be. What's obvious is that deals go beyond talent exchanges. What is also linked to these deals is the exchanging of contracts. Very often that's the basis for the trade an that's what makes a lot of deals complicated. Winnipeg is in a much more cap stressed situation than the Sabres. So for them sending out an onerous contract is important to them. If you look at our two recent acquisitions in Miller and Johansson for the teams letting them go it was more about the contracts than a talent exchange. 

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3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Every thing you said makes sense. One of takeaways from this interview is that a Risto deal may not be a one for one deal, although I would prefer it to be. What's obvious is that deals go beyond talent exchanges. What is also linked to these deals is the exchanging of contracts. Very often that's the basis for the trade an that's what makes a lot of deals complicated. Winnipeg is in a much more cap stressed situation than the Sabres. So for them sending out an onerous contract is important to them. If you look at our two recent acquisitions in Miller and Johansson for the teams letting them go it was more about the contracts than a talent exchange. 

I’m ok with taking back money and I realize that it will likely be required in almost any Risto trade. I just want a more useful player than Perrault. Or, if we are taking a “cap dump” type of player in return to make the cap work I want a much better main piece than Roslovic. I just hated both pieces included in that hypothetical trade is all. 

 

Like Ehlers, he makes $6M for the next 6 years. I’m fine taking that salary back! lol

 

 

If Winnipeg wanted to send up Perrault in a Ristolainen trade, IMO that would take a big sweetener because it would take away value from whatever else was included in the trade. 

 

Look at what it’d cost to dump cap this offseason. Toronto gave up a 1st to dump Marleau and he only had 1 year left on his deal and was still a very useful player, just slightly overpaid. Nashville had to basically give away P.K. Subban (a Norris trophy finalist just 2 seasons ago) to clear his cap hit to be able to sign Duchene. 

 

Perrault is like an Okposo level player. It should cost big to dump a player like that. 

 

If winnipeg needs to send salary back, then send a more useful player our way.

 

The Sabres aren’t exactly swimming in cap space right now, themselves. We barely have enough to get our RFA’s signed.

I’m fine with the trade being cap neutral for both teams, but I don’t want to trade a player like Ristolainen, who is totally worth the cap space he takes up, for someone who is going to be a big waste of cap space. We already have way too many of those contracts (according to a recent analysis of every NHL team’s contracts, we have the most dead weight contracts in the NHL) . I’m done taking other teams garbage unless it’s definitely worth our while. 

 

 

 

Plus, Perrault is yet another left winger, which is about our least needed position. 

 

 

(as you can probably tell, I hate the idea of this proposed trade. 😂

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Posted (edited)

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

Quote

Last week we went over the league’s best and worst contracts, ordered by how much surplus value the deal provides as well as the likelihood the player will be able to provide positive value. That was just a teaser. Today, we rank (almost) every contract on every team in the league based on the same methodology in an attempt to figure out which teams are the most efficient with the money they spend.

 

Teams will be graded empirically based on the surplus value they bring in per player contract (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

 

What’s being assessed is the future value of the remainder of each contract, meaning what a player has already done holds no merit here. Future value means age is crucial in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

Screen-Shot-2019-07-15-at-11.18.13-PM.pn

 

Quote
Quote

The Sabres rank 30th in positive value probability, but 22nd in surplus value and 21st in cost per win. The reason for that is due to the flexibility of the team’s cap sheet in relation to which players are signed long term and which aren’t. Jack Eichel and Colin Miller bring the team the most surplus value while Jeff Skinner is signed for close to market value. Those players greatly reduce the price of a win every year they’re on the books and offset the guys that drive it up, most of whom are only on one-year pacts. Aside from bad deals for Kyle Okposo and Rasmus Ristolainen, the future cap sheet looks pretty clean.

 

The immediate present isn’t great though. The list goes on for the Sabres that are getting more than their worth, but they won’t be here for long. Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Jimmy Vesey, Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella are all replaceable talents and likely gone after next season. That they’re only here for a year though is what drives the certainty that they won’t be worth their contracts way up though. Combined, they’ll be worth minus-2.1 wins next season, but somehow cost the team $18.1 million. That’s rough.

The Sabres have eight players with a positive value probability lower than 20 percent, the most in the league. The Sabres also rank dead last with only 24 percent of their contracts being above average value. One day things will be good in Buffalo, but that time isn’t now. The team just doesn’t have the right pieces surrounding its talented young core.

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

Edited by BillsFan4

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37 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

Screen-Shot-2019-07-15-at-11.18.13-PM.pn

 

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

 

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1 minute ago, JohnC said:

 

 

41 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

Screen-Shot-2019-07-15-at-11.18.13-PM.pn

 

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

There was a quote in the article that stuck out for me: "The team just doesn't have the right pieces surrounding its talented core." That's why a Risto and/or McCabe deal is so critical. There is still plenty of time to work out a deal or deals before the season or even during the season to reshuffle some of the pieces. If a good deal for Risto can't be consummated then the GM should just keep him and go on from there. There are a number of critical needs. In my view assembling a credible second line is the biggest priority. If a second line center can't be attained then the next possible route is to secure a good winger and put Mitts (who still has a way to go) in a better position to succeed. 

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48 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@JohnC here is the article I mentioned -

 

https://theathletic.com/1078201/2019/07/17/by-the-numbers-grading-every-teams-contract-efficiency/

‘By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency’

 

 

 

 

Heres the section on the Sabres. There’s also a graph but I don’t think I’m adding it properly because it’s showing up as a link. (edit, fixed it)

Screen-Shot-2019-07-15-at-11.18.13-PM.pn

 

 

It’s amazing the amount of work that went into this article. I don’t agree with everything his model spits out, but I appreciate the time and effort put into the analysis. 

the hockey analytics/twitter guys are unbelievable...for most its just a passion, not a profession..though they hope it to be!

 

This is the section i love..and someone tell me why anyone on this list outside of Vesey is not going to be waived??

 

 Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Jimmy Vesey, Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella are all replaceable talents and likely gone after next season. That they’re only here for a year though is what drives the certainty that they won’t be worth their contracts way up though. Combined, they’ll be worth minus-2.1 wins next season,

 

 

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59 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

the hockey analytics/twitter guys are unbelievable...for most its just a passion, not a profession..though they hope it to be!

 

This is the section i love..and someone tell me why anyone on this list outside of Vesey is not going to be waived??

 

 Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Jimmy Vesey, Vladimir Sobotka, Zach Bogosian and Marco Scandella are all replaceable talents and likely gone after next season. That they’re only here for a year though is what drives the certainty that they won’t be worth their contracts way up though. Combined, they’ll be worth minus-2.1 wins next season,

 

 

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

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9 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

I would agree on that for the most part. Ya know, I was very pro tank, and hate to say was  not at all upset when Girgs got hurt that year as i thought between him and the goalies might jeopardize our position, he was playing that well. Be great to look at the advanced numbers from that year and see what they looked like on him...and what has happened since..as you say just way to many DZone starts? What else might be affecting him?.

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22 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

Not that long ago there was a WGR segment on the Instigator Show talking about the Larsson and Girgensons line. Andrew Peters made the point that on a good team where games were meaningful throughout the season and most games were usually close their defensive roles that included the penalty kill would be valued. The assessment of that line is mistakenly devalued because in general the team lacked secondary scoring and thus their performances were associated with that team deficiency. 

 

If a credible second line can be assembled that would not only take some scoring pressure off of the first line but also push back players playing roles above their talent level into more proper lower line roles the Girgs/Larsson line and roles would be more appreciated and respected. 

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I think there could be more of a long term potential with Vesey.  I see him as a lesser version of last year's Skinner.  They'll see how things go and then decide whether or not they want to bring him back for more.

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18 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I would agree on that for the most part. Ya know, I was very pro tank, and hate to say was  not at all upset when Girgs got hurt that year as i thought between him and the goalies might jeopardize our position, he was playing that well. Be great to look at the advanced numbers from that year and see what they looked like on him...and what has happened since..as you say just way to many DZone starts? What else might be affecting him?.

 

I was high on Girgs that tank year under Nolan, too. I thought he had a chance to be our next captain, and hoped he’d be that hard working 2 way #2C for the Sabres in the future. 

 

But I think I kind of just got fooled. Someone had to play that #1 C role for the Sabres that year (looking back on the lineup that year is scary! lol https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BUF/2015.html ). Whoever did was bound to put up some points by default. 

 

I think it helped having Ted Nolan as his coach. They had a prior relationship from their time together with Latvia, so Nolan has confidence in girgensons.

 

Plus, All Nolan really asked for was effort (more effort was also his solution to every problem) and I think that suited Girgensons well. 

 

 

I think the biggest thing with girgensons last year was that he really seemed to finally accept and embrace his role as a shutdown guy. I don’t think girgensons had ever really accepted that he’s more of a defensive guy before that. Same with Larsson to some extent.

 

Larsson had a down year 2 years ago coming off that bad wrist/arm injury, but IMO he’s always been pretty useful when paired with decent line mates. His line with Foligno and Gionta was one of our best lines that year, and he also (surprisingly) did pretty good in 2014 when he was paired with Ennis and Moulson. 

 

I think that we probably need to accept that they are both just good 4th liners who can add value in a defensive role. 

 

 

Both are UFA at years end though and with younger players coming up behind them (like Asplund) it wouldn’t surprise me if this was their last year in Buffalo. 

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1 hour ago, shrader said:

I think there could be more of a long term potential with Vesey.  I see him as a lesser version of last year's Skinner.  They'll see how things go and then decide whether or not they want to bring him back for more.

If he can give us more net presence in the offensive zone then his value increases. The only player who consistently stands his ground around the net is Reinhart. And the prolific goal scorer within a few yards of the net is Skinner. Okposa is probably the most physically suited to be around the net. He shies away from that tough territory. That is disappointing. 

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2 hours ago, shrader said:

I think there could be more of a long term potential with Vesey.  I see him as a lesser version of last year's Skinner.  They'll see how things go and then decide whether or not they want to bring him back for more.

 

I liked the Vesey move.

I think when this team develops its talent, he could be one of those fourth line guys who can actually finish the chances that his linemates give him. He can kill penalties and contribute on the second PP.  When the move was made, my only reaction was hope that they don't try to jam him into a first or second line role.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/blackhawks/ct-blackhawks-alex-nylander-mackenzie-entwistle-20190717-tv54jfi2unhppdlje7ifqdaf7q-story.html?outputType=amp

 

Alex Nylander canceled a vacation to participate in Blackhawks development camp. GM Stan Bowman was impressed.

 

Quote

When Stan Bowman called Alex Nylander to let him know the Hawks had traded for him, the Blackhawks general manager had one request.

 

“It was pretty short notice when I talked to him the day of the trade and said, ‘We’d love to have you in Chicago if you can make it work,’” Bowman said. “I think he did have a vacation planned, but he canceled that to come here, and that shows his desire to acclimate with our group right away.”

 

It’s rare for players with NHL experience to attend development camp. Nylander, who has played in 19 games with the Sabres, attended their development camp in past years but didn’t go to their most recent one last month.

 

After he chose not to attend Buffalo’s development camp just weeks earlier...

even though buffalo also has a brand new coaching staff he should have wanted to make a good impression on. 

 

 

Quote

He’s a big kid, he’s almost 200 pounds,” Bowman said. “So his physical strength is there. Now it’s just trying to put it all together. He’s got a great skill set, he wants to be a player, he wants to learn, and he’s been asking questions out there, talking to the coaches, listening to what they have to say and trying to incorporate it in the drills. I’ve found him to be coachable and I think he’s excited.”

 

We will see how long this new, eager, coachable Alex Nylander lasts. I have a feeling his attitude may not be quite this good if he’s sent down to start the year (though I think bowman gives h8m every chance to stick). 

 

I highly doubt that he just all all the sudden “got it” overnight. I think this is just coming from a boost in motivation that follows many/most trades. 

 

I don’t want it to sound like I am rooting against the kid or anything. I just wish he’d have shown the same effort and willingness to get better here.  

 

Im still glad that botterill cashed in on Nylander though. I think he’s always going to be one of those frustrating players that you know has more to give (kind of like Vanek, though I don’t think Nylander will ever be the goal scorer Vanek was). 

 

I feel similarly about his brother in Toronto. 

Edited by BillsFan4

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Ahh, personally, I'm sorta feeling the schadenfreude with the kid. I didn't want Emo-boy to hoist the Cup and win the Conn Smythe; don't want Entitled to prosper with the Hawks. He'll probably kill it now . . .

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8 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I actually didn’t fully agree with that section. Bogo, Sobotka, Scandella yes (though I’m hoping for bounce back years for Scandella and Sobotka since it looks like both will be on the roster this year). 

 

But I have no issue with Larsson and girgensons. They were actually good in their roles as shutdown players. They were 4th and 5th in the league in d zone starts iirc and faced some of the toughest QoC of any Sabres forwards. Despite that, both of their defensive zone metrics were very good. They are actually 2 of the best defensive forwards we have on the team. 

 

When they are slotted into a proper role they add value to the team. 

It’s asking them to play roles they’re not meant for where the trouble starts. 

 

At least IMO anyway. 

I can see Scandella as a third or fourth pairing defenseman. I just don't see where Sobotka fits in. If the Sabres work out a deal to get a second line center then Mitts probably becomes our third center. If Mitts becomes a second line center I still don't see where Sobotka fits in as a third line player. The GM is adverse to buy out players. However, this could be a case where it might come to shipping Sobotka for virtually nothing and paying a portion of his salary just to move him. This seems to be a situation where it is best for the player and the organization to move on from each other. 

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12 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I can see Scandella as a third or fourth pairing defenseman. I just don't see where Sobotka fits in. If the Sabres work out a deal to get a second line center then Mitts probably becomes our third center. If Mitts becomes a second line center I still don't see where Sobotka fits in as a third line player. The GM is adverse to buy out players. However, this could be a case where it might come to shipping Sobotka for virtually nothing and paying a portion of his salary just to move him. This seems to be a situation where it is best for the player and the organization to move on from each other. 

Or waiving him and hoping he chooses to return to the KHL again... lol

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Is Risto traded yet?

Is Risto traded yet?

Is Risto traded yet?

Is Risto traded yet?

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The attached link is from a NHL site. It gives a summarization of the team moves and what they mean toward breaking the playoff drought. At this point the unknown issue is whether Risto is going to be traded, and if so, what will the return be? If the return results in upgrading the second line then the team's prospects should look brighter. Another unknown factor is how much difference is the coaching change going to mean. I think the consensus is that the Sabres will be an improved team but the more important issue is how much so? And the follow up issue is will our improvement match or surpass the improvement of other teams that our in our strata? 

 

https://www.nhl.com/news/behind-the-numbers-buffalo-sabres-eventful-summer-should-provide-spark/c-308292130

 

 

   

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1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

The attached link gives a little more background to the deal. It seems to me that the Oilers got the best of the deal in that if it doesn't work out they have a reasonable buyout option where Calgary doesn't have that escape avenue to take. What is evident is that the Oiler signing of Lucic was an unmitigated disaster. The new GM is in the process of cleaning up the mess of the previous regime. 

 

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2019/07/19/trade-flames-get-lucic-oilers-receive-neal/

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52 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The attached link gives a little more background to the deal. It seems to me that the Oilers got the best of the deal in that if it doesn't work out they have a reasonable buyout option where Calgary doesn't have that escape avenue to take. What is evident is that the Oiler signing of Lucic was an unmitigated disaster. The new GM is in the process of cleaning up the mess of the previous regime. 

 

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2019/07/19/trade-flames-get-lucic-oilers-receive-neal/

 

It wasn’t that long ago that people were fawning over Chiarrelli’s moves to toughen up that squad.

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